chore(release): version packages

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -1,5 +1,67 @@
 # Changelog
 
+## 1.15.0
+
+### Minor Changes
+
+- 4212dbb: Help report: `GET /api/support/report` returns a single Markdown file
+  describing what FTW is doing and why, reachable from a "Something looks
+  wrong?" button under the plan chart and from any driver's Diagnose modal.
+  It exists because answering "why is it discharging when the plan says
+  charge?" currently takes a screenshot round-trip per question — one thread
+  needed nine of them to establish that a load forecast said 383 W while the
+  house was drawing 7.9 kW.
+
+  The file opens with `Findings`: automated checks written in the order a
+  person would run them — stale plan, fallback solver, offline or faulted
+  devices, active safety limits, and a forecast-versus-reality comparison for
+  both load and solar. Under that come the live site state, the plan slot
+  covering _this moment_ (stated before anything about the next one, since
+  confusing the two is what sends these threads sideways), the surrounding
+  slots with the solver's reasoning, forecast accuracy, driver health,
+  component versions, and the recent warning and error log.
+
+  It is one file rather than a bundle because people paste it into a chat and
+  ask for help there; a tarball of JSON does not survive that. The plan window
+  is trimmed to a few hours either side of now and logs to warnings and errors,
+  which keeps it small enough to upload and to read in full.
+
+  `/api/support/dump` is unchanged and remains the deep bundle for cases the
+  report cannot close.
+
+### Patch Changes
+
+- 41e59ef: Load model: replace the MAE-band outlier filter with a physical ceiling
+  taken from the main fuse. The band rejected the upper half of the real
+  load distribution, and could lock the model out of a level it had not seen
+  before, permanently.
+
+  A rejected sample updates neither `MAE` nor `Samples`, so the band
+  `max(MAE × 10, 200)` never grew in response to being persistently wrong.
+  Measured on a clean model: an hour at 400 W left MAE at 57 W and the band
+  at 570 W; a following week at 5 kW was rejected in full, 100% of samples,
+  and the prediction never moved off 1794 W.
+
+  The band was the wrong instrument, not merely mistuned. Household load is
+  multimodal — a few hundred watts of baseline, then 11 kW when the sauna,
+  oven and car overlap — and nothing about a residual's size separates
+  "unusual but real" from "wrong". A band fitted to the quiet hours always
+  excludes the busy ones. Short-term measurement noise is already handled a
+  layer down, by the Kalman filter in telemetry whose smoothed output this
+  model reads, so the second filter was both harmful and redundant.
+
+  What remains is the rejection physics licenses: a house cannot draw more
+  than its main fuse passes. The ceiling is `fuse capacity × 1.25`, passed in
+  from configuration and never derived from what the model has learned, so it
+  holds from the first sample and cannot be talked down by a model that has
+  mislearned. With no fuse configured the check disables itself rather than
+  inventing a limit.
+
+  A sustained shift to a new load level is now learned directly. A one-minute
+  spike still trains — it is real consumption — and the bucket EMA damps it
+  to a tenth of the gap, which is what keeps an hour from being defined by
+  its loudest minute.
+
 ## 1.14.0
 
 ### Minor Changes

package.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "name": "ftw",
-  "version": "1.14.0",
+  "version": "1.15.0",
   "private": true,
   "type": "module",
   "description": "FTW — local-first home energy coordination. Version metadata only; the runtime is Go and the mathematical planner is Python/CVXPY.",