chore(release): version packages

[frahlg]

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Releases

ftw@1.15.0

Minor Changes

• 4212dbb: Help report: GET /api/support/report returns a single Markdown file
  describing what FTW is doing and why, reachable from a "Something looks
  wrong?" button under the plan chart and from any driver's Diagnose modal.
  It exists because answering "why is it discharging when the plan says
  charge?" currently takes a screenshot round-trip per question — one thread
  needed nine of them to establish that a load forecast said 383 W while the
  house was drawing 7.9 kW.

  The file opens with Findings: automated checks written in the order a
  person would run them — stale plan, fallback solver, offline or faulted
  devices, active safety limits, and a forecast-versus-reality comparison for
  both load and solar. Under that come the live site state, the plan slot
  covering this moment (stated before anything about the next one, since
  confusing the two is what sends these threads sideways), the surrounding
  slots with the solver's reasoning, forecast accuracy, driver health,
  component versions, and the recent warning and error log.

  It is one file rather than a bundle because people paste it into a chat and
  ask for help there; a tarball of JSON does not survive that. The plan window
  is trimmed to a few hours either side of now and logs to warnings and errors,
  which keeps it small enough to upload and to read in full.

  /api/support/dump is unchanged and remains the deep bundle for cases the
  report cannot close.

Patch Changes

• 41e59ef: Load model: replace the MAE-band outlier filter with a physical ceiling
  taken from the main fuse. The band rejected the upper half of the real
  load distribution, and could lock the model out of a level it had not seen
  before, permanently.

  A rejected sample updates neither MAE nor Samples, so the band
  max(MAE × 10, 200) never grew in response to being persistently wrong.
  Measured on a clean model: an hour at 400 W left MAE at 57 W and the band
  at 570 W; a following week at 5 kW was rejected in full, 100% of samples,
  and the prediction never moved off 1794 W.

  The band was the wrong instrument, not merely mistuned. Household load is
  multimodal — a few hundred watts of baseline, then 11 kW when the sauna,
  oven and car overlap — and nothing about a residual's size separates
  "unusual but real" from "wrong". A band fitted to the quiet hours always
  excludes the busy ones. Short-term measurement noise is already handled a
  layer down, by the Kalman filter in telemetry whose smoothed output this
  model reads, so the second filter was both harmful and redundant.

  What remains is the rejection physics licenses: a house cannot draw more
  than its main fuse passes. The ceiling is fuse capacity × 1.25, passed in
  from configuration and never derived from what the model has learned, so it
  holds from the first sample and cannot be talked down by a model that has
  mislearned. With no fuse configured the check disables itself rather than
  inventing a limit.

  A sustained shift to a new load level is now learned directly. A one-minute
  spike still trains — it is real consumption — and the bucket EMA damps it
  to a tenth of the gap, which is what keeps an hour from being defined by
  its loudest minute.