Add canonical time-dependent gains rendering

[uriahf]

Summary

• add an internal canonical v2 builder for time-dependent gains from existing production performance quantities
• add renderer= selection to create_gains_curve_times() while preserving Plotly as the unchanged default production path
• represent one evaluation per semantic input evaluation and one geometric series per evaluation × horizon
• emit one global Random identity and one Perfect Model path per semantic population × horizon
• render Matplotlib horizons as separate panels
• cover shared-population multi-model, multiple-horizon, equal-valued distinct-owner, censoring, competing-risk, browser, Matplotlib, and unchanged-default scenarios

Statistical boundary

The Perfect Model bend is the already-calculated horizon-specific target-event risk:

real_positives / n at cutoff 0.

Those counts originate in the production Aalen–Johansen pipeline (polarstate.predict_aj_estimates and the performance-data transforms). The canonical builder copies that calculated quantity and does not recompute AJ/CIF, censoring, competing risks, or prevalence.

Ownership

• shared population + shared horizon → one shared Perfect Model reference
• different population or horizon → distinct population_horizon owner
• equal numerical geometry never collapses distinct semantic owners
• reference_group is used only as the compatibility join into explicit evaluation metadata

Contract

No schema change is required. Existing evaluation identity, series horizon, seriesId, path geometry, and population_horizon reference ownership are sufficient and language-neutral for future R adoption.

Browser dependency

The immutable rtichoke_viz v0.3.1 release is vendored in this PR. Provenance is pinned to source commit 5ccde928a0bf9fa6ece2b7572687b442c57a98a9 and release SHA-256 121aa8eb8d0f8427ecfb2c01dab0fb05668eaedf47ddcfc0cd282a7ecf1ce448. The shipped browser bundle includes the horizon selector from uriahf/rtichoke_viz#30.

Verification

• focused pytest: 11 passed across time-gains builder/renderers and vendored browser assets
• targeted Ruff check/format: passed
• uv build: passed; wheel contains v0.3.1 and excludes v0.3.0
• full rtichoke_viz tests: 71 passed; TypeScript typecheck passed
• full-project ty check src tests continues to report pre-existing test diagnostics outside this diff

[github-actions]

PR Preview Action v1.8.1
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2026-08-23 06:15 UTC