Fix time-dependent reference prevalence by horizon - #328
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uriahf
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August 20, 2026 08:30
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Summary
*_timesfunctionsScope
This intentionally does not change ROC (its diagonal reference is prevalence-independent) or Gains (already fixed and covered separately). It also avoids unrelated API cleanup such as
size, colors, sorting, calibration heuristics, or export changes.Why
The generic time-dependent reference helper included both cutoff 0 and cutoff 1. Under time-dependent AJ adjustment, those boundary rows can differ, so prevalence-dependent reference curves could accidentally use/mix the wrong value across a population/horizon. The regression tests lock the reference estimate to
reference_group × fixed_time_horizonat cutoff 0.