Fix time-dependent gains perfect reference - #325
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Fixes #239.
For time-dependent gains curves, build the perfect-reference event probability from the
chosen_cutoff == 0row only, giving one horizon-specific AJ event estimate per reference group. This avoids mixing the cutoff-1 estimate into the reference calculation, which could make an observed gains curve appear better than perfect.Includes a regression test showing that with p=0.2 the perfect gains reference is y=0.5 at x=0.1.