2026 revival of a 2022 NLP course project: SUB-Forecast, a leakage-controlled benchmark for subnational unrest forecasting (994 regions, 55 countries). Finding: news text is informative but nearly subsumed by the event record, adding a small significant gain on escalation (+0.3-0.6 AUPRC points) and nothing on onset.
Forecasts, for 20 DRC hotspots, the probability of a major escalation within 30, 60, and 90 days: a single event with 10+ deaths, a locality changing hands, or 5,000+ newly displaced. "Any violence" is not the target; in most eastern territories it is already close to certain every month.
Forecasting regional armed conflict trends with ARIMA, VAR, and LSTM models using conflict, military, economic, and demographic time-series data.
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