|
$3.8bn base case against a $7.0bn private mark. Built before the roadshow range was consulted; the resulting $2.7–5.5bn range brackets what institutions actually indicated ($3.0–3.5bn domestic, $4.5bn foreign). Zepto, Blinkit and Instamart disclose on three incompatible bases — 1P inventory against 3P commission — making headline revenue comparisons wrong by roughly 4.3x. Restated onto net order value, the binding constraint was never store density: Zepto runs the highest orders per store per day of the three (1,618) and the weakest basket (₹388, against ₹518 and ₹508). About 4 percentage points of the headline cut is rupee depreciation rather than fundamentals.
|
|
Pass on the spread. Standalone DCF puts Organon at $6.90 against a $14.00 offer — $1.86bn of synergy management never disclosed, requiring 3.87% revenue growth against an actual −0.38% two-year CAGR. The spread implies 93.9% completion probability. A seeded 100,000-path Monte Carlo returns a mean annualised 0.07% against a 4.62% risk-free rate: the position is not paid for the risk it carries. Sun Pharma's own announcement CAR was +9.6% and statistically significant, which is the evidence that cuts hardest against the standalone valuation.
|
|
$60.50 sits below the floor of all three methods. DCF bear case $73.85, trading comps $76.69, precedent-transaction floor $64.88. Making the base case agree with the offer requires a 13.4% discount rate against a calculated 9.67% WACC. A reverse DCF makes the same point from the other side: the $47.37 unaffected close implies ~17%, or five straight years of −11.6% revenue decline — neither consistent with reported results or guidance. That reads the pre-news price as a sentiment floor, not an intrinsic-value anchor.
|
|
A 68% profit miss moved the stock less than a 20% miss did the year before. Same Rs 7.50 dividend, bundled with results both times — the reaction tracked the surprise, not the size of the miss. FY25's decline arrived with no precedent and produced a significant, lasting −5.7% three-day CAR (market model), −5.8% under Fama-French three-factor. FY26's much larger decline had been signalled for months; its −3.0% initial reaction had fully reverted to +0.2% within two weeks — consistent with the cost pressure being priced in ahead of the print.
|
|
Put-linked exposure fell from 62% of gross to 0.03% in the quarter before the fund lost 67%. The published accounts of the July 2026 collapse attribute it to 4x leverage. Seven quarters of 13F filings show the fund also entered July with no disclosed downside protection, having held $8.46bn of puts three months earlier; two positions, Micron and TSMC, flipped from a put to a larger long on the same issuer between filings. Days-to-liquidate built from position size against trailing volume put the book at 1.55 days, which reads as liquid. The single name it flagged, Core Scientific at 9.25 days, is the one a Schedule 13D/A shows still being sold by block trade five days after the main unwind, 12.2% below its mid-July prints. Tested out-of-sample the screen initially failed: Berkshire's concentration exceeds Melvin Capital's before GameStop, because Melvin's risk sat in swaps a 13F cannot see. That result is why the live screen scores concentration trend alongside level rather than level alone.
|
One registry holds every externally-sourced figure, tagged by provenance tier; nothing else contains a typed-in number, so the memo, the notebooks, the deck and the model cannot drift apart. Each repository carries its own verification suite and runs it in CI on every push — the Zepto build rebuilds all nine notebooks, the deck, the PDFs and the workbook from source and re-audits the result, and the PayPal build asserts every committed output still reproduces byte-for-byte. Primary sources are pinned by SHA-256 rather than redistributed, so a reader can prove they hold the same document the figures were read from.
Limitations are written down rather than omitted, including corrections made mid-analysis where an earlier draft was wrong. Two of the three recorded in the Zepto memo are errors a reader working from secondary coverage would reproduce.
Work in progress extends the same standard to a wider toolset: SQL-backed pipelines so the registry is queried rather than typed, econometric work carried in R and Stata alongside Python, and a reporting layer in Power BI. Each ships with the same verification suite and the same written limitations as the work above.
Independent research. Not investment advice.