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Merged
sid-plt merged 1 commit into from
Aug 27, 2026
Merged

Update analytics data and lineup scoring #6

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4 changes: 3 additions & 1 deletion README.md
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Expand Up @@ -122,7 +122,9 @@ creating a timestamped history.
6. Run the required collectors in `notebooks/05_predicted_lineups`: RotoWire,
LigaInsider, Kicker, and/or the source-specific manual Kickbase workflow.
Their snapshots share the match/home/away/player envelope while retaining
source-specific details.
source-specific details. Default lineup-blend weights are LigaInsider 4,
Kickbase 3, Kicker 2, and RotoWire 1; only sources covering a team
contribute to that team's blend.
7. Create the required expected-points score file in
`notebooks/06_score_creation`.
8. Run an optimizer in `notebooks/07_squad_optimisation`, or run
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16 changes: 16 additions & 0 deletions data/reference/kickbase_player_name_cross_references.csv
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Expand Up @@ -3,3 +3,19 @@ schalke,Timo Becker,T. BECKER,2026-08-19T13:29:03+02:00
bremen,Paul Erevbenagie,Erebenagie,2026-08-19T13:29:07+02:00
leipzig,Maarten Vandevoordt,VANDEVOORT,2026-08-19T13:29:30+02:00
schalke,Vitalie Becker,V. BECKER,2026-08-25T12:10:49+02:00
elversberg,Lasse Günther,La. Günther,2026-08-27T12:34:26+02:00
dortmund,Joey Veerman,J. Veerman,2026-08-27T12:34:28+02:00
union,Rani Khedira,R. Khedira,2026-08-27T12:34:31+02:00
mainz,Kaishu Sano,Kai. Sano,2026-08-27T12:34:33+02:00
koeln,Said El Mala,S. El Mala,2026-08-27T12:34:35+02:00
dortmund,Felix Nmecha,F. Nmecha,2026-08-27T12:34:41+02:00
freiburg,Yuito Suzuki,Y. Suzuki,2026-08-27T12:34:44+02:00
hoffenheim,Mats Rots,M. Rots,2026-08-27T12:34:46+02:00
leverkusen,Ezequiél Fernández,E. Fernandez,2026-08-27T12:34:57+02:00
frankfurt,Oscar Højlund,O. Höjlund,2026-08-27T12:34:59+02:00
leipzig,Ridle Baku,R. Baku,2026-08-27T12:35:05+02:00
frankfurt,Robin Koch,R. Koch,2026-08-27T12:35:09+02:00
freiburg,Maximilian Eggestein,M. Eggestein,2026-08-27T12:35:22+02:00
paderborn,Albert Frank Millgramm,A. Millgramm,2026-08-27T12:35:25+02:00
mainz,Jae-Sung Lee,J.-S. Lee,2026-08-27T12:35:29+02:00
mainz,Phillip Tietz,P. Tietz,2026-08-27T12:35:41+02:00
1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions data/reference/player_name_cross_references.csv
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Expand Up @@ -82,3 +82,4 @@ rotowire,mainz,Jae-Sung Lee,32009,Lee Jae-Sung,2026-08-23T18:01:22+02:00
rotowire,paderborn,Albert Frank Millgramm,48815,Albert Millgramm,2026-08-23T20:56:05+02:00
ligainsider,frankfurt,Mario Götze,501,Mario Goetze,2026-08-25T12:10:24+02:00
rotowire,frankfurt,Ayoube Amaimouni,47580,Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab,2026-08-25T12:10:34+02:00
rotowire,hamburg,Shafiq Nandja,48225,Shafiq Bello Nandja,2026-08-27T12:47:28+02:00
10 changes: 8 additions & 2 deletions kbstats_points_odds_lineup_score.py
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Expand Up @@ -29,6 +29,7 @@
KB_TEAM_ID_TO_KEY,
LINEUP_OVERRIDE_COLUMNS,
LINEUP_SOURCES,
NAME_ONLY_LINEUP_SOURCE_KEYS,
KICKBASE_REFERENCE_COLUMNS,
_fuzzy_candidates,
_load_kickbase_lineup_overrides,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -91,6 +92,7 @@ class MetricConfig:
"expected_match_points",
"ligainsider_starting_chance",
"kickbase_starting_chance",
"kicker_starting_chance",
"rotowire_starting_chance",
"questionable_injury_penalty",
"starting_chance",
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -249,7 +251,7 @@ def _resolve_lineups(
if chosen is not None:
resolution[(index, source.key)] = (chosen, "exact")
continue
if source.key == "kickbase":
if source.key in NAME_ONLY_LINEUP_SOURCE_KEYS:
override = kickbase_override_by_key.get((team_key, normalized))
if override is not None:
chosen = candidates.get(normalize_name(override["kickbase_displayed_name"]))
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -306,7 +308,7 @@ def _resolve_lineups(
resolution[(index, source.key)] = (None, "missing")
continue
resolution[(index, source.key)] = (chosen, "prompted")
if source.key == "kickbase":
if source.key in NAME_ONLY_LINEUP_SOURCE_KEYS:
new_kickbase_overrides.append(
{
"canonical_team": team_key,
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -404,6 +406,7 @@ def run_score_creation(
match_point_values: list[float] = []
ligainsider_chances: list[float] = []
kickbase_chances: list[float] = []
kicker_chances: list[float] = []
rotowire_chances: list[float] = []
injury_penalties: list[float] = []
starting_chances: list[float] = []
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -463,6 +466,7 @@ def run_score_creation(
match_point_values.append(match_points)
ligainsider_chances.append(source_chance_by_key["ligainsider"])
kickbase_chances.append(source_chance_by_key["kickbase"])
kicker_chances.append(source_chance_by_key["kicker"])
rotowire_chances.append(source_chance_by_key["rotowire"])
injury_penalties.append(injury_penalty)
starting_chances.append(starting_chance)
Expand All @@ -477,6 +481,7 @@ def run_score_creation(
"expected_match_points": match_points,
"ligainsider_starting_chance": source_chance_by_key["ligainsider"],
"kickbase_starting_chance": source_chance_by_key["kickbase"],
"kicker_starting_chance": source_chance_by_key["kicker"],
"rotowire_starting_chance": source_chance_by_key["rotowire"],
"questionable_injury_penalty": injury_penalty,
"starting_chance": starting_chance,
Expand All @@ -489,6 +494,7 @@ def run_score_creation(
scored["expected_match_points"] = match_point_values
scored["ligainsider_starting_chance"] = ligainsider_chances
scored["kickbase_starting_chance"] = kickbase_chances
scored["kicker_starting_chance"] = kicker_chances
scored["rotowire_starting_chance"] = rotowire_chances
scored["questionable_injury_penalty"] = injury_penalties
scored["starting_chance"] = starting_chances
Expand Down
22 changes: 11 additions & 11 deletions notebooks/02_odds/02_fotmob_match_odds.ipynb
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Expand Up @@ -878,18 +878,18 @@
" 'away_team': 'Bayer Leverkusen',\n",
" 'bookmakers': [{'bookmaker': 'Tipico',\n",
" 'bookmaker_source_id': 171,\n",
" 'home_win': 5.2,\n",
" 'draw': 4.6,\n",
" 'home_win': 5.3,\n",
" 'draw': 4.5,\n",
" 'away_win': 1.55}],\n",
" 'issues': []},\n",
" {'match_id': 5881147,\n",
" 'home_team': '1. FC Köln',\n",
" 'away_team': 'Hoffenheim',\n",
" 'bookmakers': [{'bookmaker': 'Tipico',\n",
" 'bookmaker_source_id': 171,\n",
" 'home_win': 3.0,\n",
" 'home_win': 3.1,\n",
" 'draw': 3.6,\n",
" 'away_win': 2.25}],\n",
" 'away_win': 2.2}],\n",
" 'issues': []},\n",
" {'match_id': 5881149,\n",
" 'home_team': 'Mainz 05',\n",
Expand All @@ -906,17 +906,17 @@
" 'bookmakers': [{'bookmaker': 'Tipico',\n",
" 'bookmaker_source_id': 171,\n",
" 'home_win': 1.52,\n",
" 'draw': 4.8,\n",
" 'away_win': 5.3}],\n",
" 'draw': 4.6,\n",
" 'away_win': 5.5}],\n",
" 'issues': []},\n",
" {'match_id': 5881151,\n",
" 'home_team': 'Union Berlin',\n",
" 'away_team': 'Eintracht Frankfurt',\n",
" 'bookmakers': [{'bookmaker': 'Tipico',\n",
" 'bookmaker_source_id': 171,\n",
" 'home_win': 2.5,\n",
" 'draw': 3.7,\n",
" 'away_win': 2.6}],\n",
" 'draw': 3.5,\n",
" 'away_win': 2.7}],\n",
" 'issues': []},\n",
" {'match_id': 5881145,\n",
" 'home_team': 'Borussia Dortmund',\n",
Expand All @@ -932,9 +932,9 @@
" 'away_team': 'Werder Bremen',\n",
" 'bookmakers': [{'bookmaker': 'Tipico',\n",
" 'bookmaker_source_id': 171,\n",
" 'home_win': 2.0,\n",
" 'draw': 3.7,\n",
" 'away_win': 3.5}],\n",
" 'home_win': 1.97,\n",
" 'draw': 3.6,\n",
" 'away_win': 3.7}],\n",
" 'issues': []},\n",
" {'match_id': 5881144,\n",
" 'home_team': 'Augsburg',\n",
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6 changes: 3 additions & 3 deletions notebooks/03_team_data/01_sofascore_recent_form.ipynb
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Expand Up @@ -103,9 +103,9 @@
"name": "stdout",
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"Execution timestamp: 2026-08-25T11:02:05.869307+02:00\n",
"Execution timestamp: 2026-08-27T12:38:44.831736+02:00\n",
"Team input file: C:\\kickbase project\\outputs\\sofascore\\reference\\bundesliga_teams.json\n",
"Snapshot output file: C:\\kickbase project\\outputs\\sofascore\\team_form\\team_form_2026-08-25_11-02-05_869307+0200.json\n"
"Snapshot output file: C:\\kickbase project\\outputs\\sofascore\\team_form\\team_form_2026-08-27_12-38-44_831736+0200.json\n"
]
}
],
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -5586,7 +5586,7 @@
"output_type": "stream",
"text": [
"{\n",
" \"2026-08-25T11:02:05.869307+02:00\": {\n",
" \"2026-08-27T12:38:44.831736+02:00\": {\n",
" \"2672\": {\n",
" \"team\": \"FC Bayern München\",\n",
" \"overall_form\": \"WWWWW\",\n",
Expand Down
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