Temperature Variation as a Driver of Wolbachia Release Efficacy: Implications for Dengue Control in Warming Climates

A repository for code, scripts, and simulation workflows for the manuscript “Temperature Variation as a Driver of Wolbachia Release Efficacy: Implications for Dengue Control in Warming Climates”. This study evaluates how seasonal, interannual, and extreme thermal variations impact Wolbachia establishment, long-term persistence, and downstream dengue transmission control by coupling a detailed Wolbachia dynamics model with a susceptible–infectious–recovered (SIR) epidemiological framework.

Authors: Juanita Prada-Mora, Santiago Villamil-Chacón & Mauricio Santos-Vega

This work investigates:

• Temperature-dependent Wolbachia parameters and population dynamics in Aedes aegypti.
• The coupled interplay between Wolbachia invasion/persistence and host-vector dengue epidemiological outcomes.
• The impact of thermal stress, including seasonal swings, heatwaves, El Niño events, and progressive warming trends, on Wolbachia strain stability and replacement success.
• Optimization of bio-control strategies, highlighting how release timing, frequency, and spatial targeting must align with local climate regimes to prevent intervention failure.

The manuscript provides mechanistic insights into how climate change and extreme heat challenge Wolbachia-based biocontrol programs, offering actionable guidance to tailor vector control interventions in warming dengue-endemic regions.