fix(outreach): do not rest a campaign for a quota failure

lib/alerts/valueserp.ts

@@ -72,6 +72,18 @@ export function resetSerpCreditCooldown(): void {
   outOfCreditsUntil = 0;
 }
 
+/**
+ * Is the account known to be out of credits right now?
+ *
+ * Callers that judge their own searches by what came back need this to tell
+ * "these queries are tapped out" from "we could not run them at all". Without
+ * it, a month-end 402 looks identical to an exhausted query list, and the
+ * back-off punishes queries that were never given a chance.
+ */
+export function serpCreditsExhausted(): boolean {
+  return Date.now() < outOfCreditsUntil;
+}
+
 /**
  * Run one ValueSERP search. Returns billable `calls` even on an empty result
  * set so the caller can debit the budget accurately. Retries once on a

lib/outreach/runner.ts

@@ -28,6 +28,7 @@ import { leadRunBilling, outOfCreditsNote } from "./billing";
 import { recordDiscoveredPeople } from "./contacts";
 import { sweepIntent } from "./intentSources";
 import { describeIntent } from "./intent";
+import { serpCreditsExhausted } from "@/lib/alerts/valueserp";
 import { LEAD_RUN_CREDITS } from "@/lib/credits";
 import { sendIntentAlertEmail } from "@/lib/email";
 import { siteBase } from "./pipeline";
@@ -447,7 +448,15 @@ export async function runEmailCampaignTick(campaign: CampaignRow): Promise<TickR
   // about whether the queries still work, and letting it reset the streak
   // would put a tapped-out campaign straight back to a search every fifteen
   // minutes the moment its pipeline drained.
-  if (discoveryRan) {
+  // A pass that came back empty because the plan is out of credits says
+  // nothing about the queries — they never ran. Counting it would rest a
+  // perfectly good campaign for up to a day, and since the plan is a monthly
+  // bucket every campaign would be resting by the time it refilled, delaying
+  // recovery well past the reset. Leave the streak where it is and let the
+  // first pass with credits behind it be the one that votes.
+  if (discoveryRan && serpCreditsExhausted()) {
+    result.skipped.push("discovery: no credits, not counting this pass against the queries");
+  } else if (discoveryRan) {
     // People and intent signals count. A run against a people-directory names
     // humans without adding a prospect, and a query surfacing fresh buying
     // intent is working even when it yields no new domain — backing either

tests/discovery-backoff.test.ts

@@ -84,6 +84,37 @@ describe("ValueSERP out-of-credit cooldown", () => {
     expect(fetchMock).toHaveBeenCalledTimes(1);
   });
 
+  // The back-off asks "did these queries produce anything?". An empty plan
+  // means they never ran, so it must be able to tell the two apart — otherwise
+  // a month-end 402 rests every campaign for a day and recovery lands well
+  // after the credits do.
+  it("reports the exhausted state so the back-off can discount the pass", async () => {
+    globalThis.fetch = vi.fn(async () => new Response("", { status: 402 })) as unknown as typeof fetch;
+    const { searchSerp, serpCreditsExhausted, resetSerpCreditCooldown } = await import(
+      "@/lib/alerts/valueserp"
+    );
+    resetSerpCreditCooldown();
+
+    expect(serpCreditsExhausted()).toBe(false);
+    await searchSerp({ query: "web development agencies", recency: "any" });
+    expect(serpCreditsExhausted()).toBe(true);
+
+    resetSerpCreditCooldown();
+    expect(serpCreditsExhausted()).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it("does not report exhaustion for an ordinary failure", async () => {
+    globalThis.fetch = vi.fn(async () => new Response("", { status: 400 })) as unknown as typeof fetch;
+    const { searchSerp, serpCreditsExhausted, resetSerpCreditCooldown } = await import(
+      "@/lib/alerts/valueserp"
+    );
+    resetSerpCreditCooldown();
+
+    const res = await searchSerp({ query: "bad query", recency: "any" });
+    expect(res.ok).toBe(false);
+    expect(serpCreditsExhausted()).toBe(false);
+  });
+
   it("never bills a call it did not make", async () => {
     globalThis.fetch = vi.fn(async () => new Response("", { status: 402 })) as unknown as typeof fetch;
     const { searchSerp, resetSerpCreditCooldown } = await import("@/lib/alerts/valueserp");