Ask whether removing a watermark leaves a trace, and answer no

.gitignore

@@ -40,3 +40,8 @@ temp/
 
 # Calibration texts are fetched, not redistributed: the manifest is the repo artefact.
 Docs/Calibration/texts/
+# Paraphrase-study passages are derivatives of the same licensed sources, and are excluded for the
+# same reason: the manifest with both halves' hashes is the repo artefact.
+Docs/Paraphrase/human/
+Docs/Paraphrase/rewritten/
+

Docs/Paraphrase/README.md

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+# The paraphrase study
+
+`Docs/PARAPHRASE.md` reports what happens to a passage when a language model rewrites it. This folder
+is what that report is made of.
+
+## Why it exists
+
+Claude models released on or after 2 August 2026 carry a machine-readable watermark, with earlier
+models to follow during a transition period, and the question arrived within a week: does that make a
+tool like this one redundant? The parts of the answer that can be settled by reading are settled by
+reading — the key is Anthropic's, no third party can detect anything today, the mark is
+vendor-specific, and the vendor's help centre lists heavy editing, paraphrasing, translation, mixing
+into other writing and very short passages as conditions that leave it undetectable.
+
+The part that cannot be settled by reading is what a *removal* does to prose. Since only a rewrite
+can disturb a watermark that lives in word choice, every working remover is a paraphraser, and
+paraphrasing is something this repository can measure without anybody's key.
+
+Two details worth getting right, because the first version of this file got them wrong. The vendor's
+help centre lists "heavily edited, paraphrased, translated, or mixed into other writing" among the
+conditions that leave a mark undetectable — that is about somebody transforming Claude's output. Its
+engineering write-up separately says that when *Claude itself* translates, the result is watermarked,
+because Claude chose all the words. Both are true and they are about opposite directions. And the
+technique is not Anthropic's: SynthID-Text was published by Google DeepMind in 2024, and Anthropic
+adopted a version of it. This is one more vendor arriving at an existing industry practice.
+
+## The design, and why it needs no machine-written corpus
+
+`Docs/Calibration/README.md` argues at length against assembling a collection of machine-written text
+to measure against: it is a sample of whichever models were convenient that month, it ages badly, and
+it flatters whoever assembled it. That argument holds here and is not evaded.
+
+What replaces it is a **pair**. Each unit of the study is one passage measured twice — as its author
+wrote it, and after a model rewrote it. Both halves are the same passage, by the same author, on the
+same subject, at nearly the same length. The baseline is not estimated from a population; it is the
+text itself, so between-author variation is removed by construction.
+
+What the pair does *not* remove is the tool's own sampling noise, and the length arm below shows that
+noise is large at four hundred words. "Moved with the rewrite" is what this design measures; "moved
+because of the rewrite" is a stronger claim and an earlier version of the report made it.
+
+The human halves are drawn from the calibration corpus, so every one of them was published before
+generative models existed. That remains the only basis for calling writing human, and it is a
+stronger one than any classifier offers about anything.
+
+## The controls, which were not planned
+
+The first run produced a baseline that did not match the published one: six of thirty-two human
+passages already sat above the verdict boundary, where the calibration page reports none of ninety.
+The difference is length. The excerpts are around four hundred words; the documents they were cut
+from run to several thousand.
+
+Chasing that produced three controls, and each was added because a reviewer showed the study could
+not tell two explanations apart without it.
+
+1. **The whole source document**, so the scissors can be told from the model.
+2. **The whole document with its apparatus stripped** by the same prose filter the excerpts pass
+   through — otherwise the gap between arms could be figure captions and boilerplate rather than
+   length. It is not: those documents still flag none of thirty-two.
+3. **Windows at three positions** — opening, middle, late — because the pairs are cut from the
+   opening, and the opening of a research article is its abstract while the opening of an
+   encyclopedia entry is its lead. Cutting only there measures a genre effect and calls it a length
+   effect. It changed the headline figure from 18.8% to 14.6%.
+
+Together they produced the study's largest result, which is about this tool rather than about any
+watermark. `Docs/PARAPHRASE.md` reports it under **Length**, and it is tracked as issue #59.
+
+## What is committed, and what is not
+
+`pairs.json` is the artefact: what each passage is, which corpus entry it came from, its year, and
+the SHA-256 of both halves. The passages themselves are git-ignored, exactly as the calibration texts
+are and for the same reason — they are derivatives of CC BY and CC BY-SA sources, licences differ,
+and the bulk would dwarf the code.
+
+`instruction.md` is committed and is the most important file here. It is the experimental treatment,
+stored verbatim, and it deliberately says nothing about detectors in either direction.
+
+The manifest also records **which model did the rewriting and on what date**. Unlike the human corpus,
+this half of the study ages: a 2019 paper will still have been written in 2019 in ten years, whereas
+a rewrite is one model's work on one day. Re-running with a newer model is the answer to "but models
+have moved on", and the tool refuses to run without being told the model's name.
+
+## Deviations from the protocol, measured rather than attested
+
+The first version of this section was written by hand and was wrong. It claimed one deliberate breach
+of the instruction's eight-word rule and there were twenty. Compliance is now checked by the tool on
+every run and printed in `Docs/PARAPHRASE.md` under **Was the treatment actually applied**, because a
+project that machine-checks its false-positive rate has no business attesting its own method by hand.
+
+- **Twenty of the thirty-two pairs retain a verbatim run of eight words or more**, the longest 86
+  words. The long runs are quotations — a court ruling, a political pamphlet, a published definition
+  of a lek — which cannot be reworded without falsifying them. The instruction's requirement to
+  preserve every fact and citation marker therefore conflicts with its no-eight-word-runs rule, and
+  the protocol never said which wins. A future run should say so before it starts, not afterwards.
+- **The rewriter silently corrected errors in the originals**, which the instruction forbids in as
+  many words ("do not correct the original"). Verified cases in the Spanish arm: *intercesión* →
+  *se cruza*, *teoría de juego* → *teoría de juegos*, *costa* → *consta*, and
+  *participación en el mercado* → *reparto del mercado*, the last of which also changes the surface
+  meaning. The English arm shows the same thing on the second-language passages. The delivered
+  treatment was therefore *paraphrase plus copy-editing*, and some part of every score change is
+  error repair rather than rewriting.
+- **This bears directly on the fairness arm.** The `en-other-affiliation` stratum exists to measure
+  the harm this category of tool does to people writing in a second language. A rewrite that repairs
+  second-language features is not a neutral treatment on that stratum, and its numbers should be read
+  with that in mind.
+- **Two passages needed a second pass.** `wp-en-1025914326` and `wp-es-132146383` came back outside
+  the ±10% the instruction sets and were rewritten once more. Across the final set the lengths run
+  from −8.5% to +6.8%, median −1.0%.
+- **The excerpts are cut from the opening of each document**, not from the middle. An earlier version
+  of the report said otherwise. Because the opening of a research article is its abstract and the
+  opening of an encyclopedia entry is its lead, this is not a neutral place to cut, and the report
+  now measures windows at three positions rather than asserting it does not matter.
+
+## Reproducing it
+
+```bash
+# 1. cut a stratified sample of the corpus into equal-length passages
+dotnet run --project tools/SignsOfAI.Calibration -- excerpt --per-stratum 8 --words 400
+
+# 2. rewrite each file in Docs/Paraphrase/human/ into Docs/Paraphrase/rewritten/ under the
+#    same name, giving the model the instruction in instruction.md and nothing else
+
+# 3. measure all three arms and rewrite Docs/PARAPHRASE.md
+dotnet run --project tools/SignsOfAI.Calibration -- paraphrase \
+    --paraphrased-by "<the model, named exactly>" --instruction Docs/Paraphrase/instruction.md
+```
+
+Step 2 is deliberately outside the tool. Wiring an API key into the calibration harness would make
+the study reproducible only for people holding that key, and would tie a published number to one
+vendor's availability. A folder of text files can be filled by any model, including one running on
+the reader's own machine, and the manifest records which.
+
+## What would improve this
+
+In order:
+
+- **More pairs.** Thirty-two cannot separate a small effect from noise, and the report says so in
+  the one place it matters. Around a hundred would settle the direction.
+- **A second rewriter.** Everything here is one model on one day. A local model and a competing
+  frontier model would show how much of the result belongs to the rewriter rather than to rewriting.
+- **Passages that look like coursework.** These are published articles and encyclopedia entries. A
+  first-year essay is shorter, looser, and closer to the case a teacher actually faces — which, given
+  what the length arm found, is the gap most worth closing.

Docs/Paraphrase/instruction.md

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+# The rewriting instruction
+
+This is the treatment. Every number in `Docs/PARAPHRASE.md` is a measurement of what *this
+instruction*, given to the model named in the manifest, does to a passage — not of what "AI
+paraphrasing" does in general. Change a word here and the study measures something else.
+
+It is written to imitate the only watermark-removal method that can work. A statistical text
+watermark lives in which words the model chose, so stripping invisible characters cannot touch it
+and only a rewrite can; Anthropic's own description says a complete rewrite where every word is
+replaced will remove it. The instruction below therefore asks for exactly that, and asks for nothing
+else.
+
+## What it deliberately does not say
+
+It does not say *make this sound human*, and it does not say *make this sound like AI*. Either
+sentence would decide the result before the measurement: the first pushes the rewrite away from the
+signals this project looks for, the second pushes it toward them, and both would produce a number
+about the instruction rather than about paraphrasing. The rewriter is told to preserve meaning and
+destroy wording, which is what somebody removing a watermark actually wants, and is told nothing
+whatever about detectors.
+
+It does not mention SignsOfAI, its rule packs, or any of the tells it looks for. A rewriter that
+knew what was being counted would be gaming the measurement.
+
+## The instruction, verbatim
+
+```text
+Rewrite the passage below so that none of its original wording survives. Replace the vocabulary,
+recast the sentences, and change the order of clauses wherever the meaning allows. No run of eight
+or more consecutive words from the original may remain.
+
+Preserve, as closely as you can:
+- the meaning, including every fact, figure, name and citation marker
+- the language it is written in
+- the register — an academic passage stays academic, an encyclopedic one stays encyclopedic
+- the approximate length, within about ten per cent
+
+Do not summarise, do not expand, do not add commentary, do not correct the original, and do not
+address the reader. Return only the rewritten passage.
+```
+
+## Why the length constraint is there
+
+Sentence-length variation is one of the things being measured. A rewrite free to compress a
+four-hundred-word passage into two hundred would change that distribution by changing how much text
+there is, and the study would not be able to tell that apart from the rewrite's own habits. Holding
+length roughly constant is what makes the two halves comparable.
+
+## Two conflicts inside this instruction, found after it had been used
+
+Recorded rather than fixed. Editing the treatment after the fact would mean the numbers in
+`Docs/PARAPHRASE.md` were produced by an instruction that no longer exists, which is worse than an
+imperfect instruction honestly described. A future run should resolve both **before** it starts.
+
+**Preserve every fact versus replace every word.** A passage quoting a court ruling, a political
+pamphlet or a published definition cannot have those words replaced without falsifying the
+quotation. The instruction demands both and does not say which wins, so the rewriter preserved the
+quotations — reasonably, but the eight-word rule is breached in twenty of the thirty-two pairs as a
+result. The tool now measures this on every run and the report prints it.
+
+**Do not correct the original versus preserve the register.** Several passages contain errors:
+*intercesión* for *intersección*, *teoría de juego* for *teoría de juegos*, and constructions a
+first-language editor would change. The rewriter repaired them. That makes the delivered treatment
+*paraphrase plus copy-editing*, so part of any measured change is error repair. It matters most on
+the `en-other-affiliation` stratum, which exists precisely to measure the harm done to people
+writing in a second language: a treatment that quietly repairs second-language features is not
+neutral there.