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29 changes: 29 additions & 0 deletions scripts/pm/dispatch-gates.mjs
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -2794,6 +2794,35 @@ export function coveringJobFilter(entry, inputPath) {
* `scripts/` module (3 live family-module pairs) and a relative target outside
* `scripts/` (3, all `eslint.config.mjs`).
*
* ## The AGGREGATE line over the same edges, measured and refused too (#13251)
*
* The follow-up to this refusal asked whether ONE summary line per edited
* module ("imported by N discovered families; a change to its exports breaks
* them at load") could carry the information the 232 refused leads carry.
* Measured over the live card population — 1,862 first-parent commits on
* origin/main, 2026-08-16..30, window proven by git-history.mjs, at 71627f7b
* — and refused as well:
*
* - it would have fired on 8.8% of cards, but the case an aggregate exists
* for — the five head utilities whose refused lists motivated it — fired
* on 0.6% (11 cards), and on those no runnable subset exists between the
* derived list and the farm. 231 of the then-241 novel pairs sat in
* UNFILTERED workflows: CI already buys the whole class in one round.
* - 93% of firings land on TAIL modules (fan-in <= 3), where the value is
* the NAMES, and every names-shape is already decided: all names is this
* refused key; names under a threshold — and "top importers: …" capped at
* K is the same thing — is a fan-in cutoff, the volume rule this file has
* no provenance to state; a bare count without names fails "changes a
* decision" exactly where it fires most. 61 of the 164 firings were cards
* on THIS file, whose count line ("imported by 1 discovered family")
* withholds the one name that matters — the bare-root-worklist witness
* the COSTS paragraph above already prices.
*
* The staleness alarms for this refusal are the SAME pins as the key's
* (concentration + witness, re-derived every `--self-test` run). The firing
* rates are history-facts, not tree-facts: re-measure them from the commands
* on #13251, never from this prose.
*
* Returns `{ key, via }` — `via` is the provenance label the output prints, so
* a lead can never be read as the wrong kind of claim.
*/
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