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Experimental study of pCTR prediction, calibration, value-aware ranking, and auction decision robustness using real RTB logs.

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AdsRankLab

AdsRankLab is an experimental advertising-ranking project for studying how predicted user response, advertiser bids, and economic value interact in real-time bidding (RTB) decisions.

The project is intentionally narrower than a production ad platform. It focuses on response prediction, probability calibration, value-aware scoring, auction outcomes, and robustness of decision policies using real RTB logs.

Research question

How should an advertising system combine predicted user response and economic value when making auction-time decisions, and when do prediction or calibration errors lead to worse allocation outcomes?

Current status

Milestone 1 foundation:

  • reproducible Python package;
  • raw/processed data conventions;
  • schema-oriented loading helpers;
  • canonical iPinYou schema validation;
  • deterministic train/validation/test splitting;
  • descriptive dataset-audit CLI;
  • basic preprocessing utilities;
  • initial tests.

The repository does not include the iPinYou dataset. See data/README.md for expected local layout.

Raw Season 2/3 contest logs can be read directly from their original .txt.bz2 files; see docs/raw_ingestion.md.

Development

python -m pip install -e ".[dev]"
pytest

Dataset audit

After placing a real RTB log under data/raw/, create a descriptive JSON audit with:

adsrank-audit data/raw/<file> --output artifacts/results/dataset_audit.json

The audit reports schema coverage, missingness, click/conversion prevalence, bid/pay/floor summaries, and selected segment cardinalities. It is descriptive only and does not infer unobserved counterfactual outcomes.

Project structure

AdsRankLab/
├── README.md
├── pyproject.toml
├── data/
│   ├── README.md
│   ├── raw/
│   └── processed/
├── docs/
│   ├── dataset_notes.md
│   └── research_progress.md
├── artifacts/
│   ├── figures/
│   └── results/
├── src/
│   └── ads_rank_lab/
│       ├── data/
│       ├── features/
│       ├── models/
│       ├── policies/
│       ├── evaluation/
│       └── experiments/
└── tests/

Scope

AdsRankLab studies a defensible subset of RTB decision-making. It does not claim to reconstruct a complete modern commercial ad auction, because public RTB logs do not expose every competing candidate, competitor bid, proprietary quality signal, landing-page quality signal, or true advertiser conversion value.

About

Experimental study of pCTR prediction, calibration, value-aware ranking, and auction decision robustness using real RTB logs.

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