Skip to content

Add the 55 X05 short arcs as an initial-orbit fixture - #525

Open
matthewholman wants to merge 1 commit into
mainfrom
feat/herget-x05-fixtures
Open

Add the 55 X05 short arcs as an initial-orbit fixture#525
matthewholman wants to merge 1 commit into
mainfrom
feat/herget-x05-fixtures

Conversation

@matthewholman

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Collaborator

The 55 Rubin-only arcs (MPC obscode X05, 6-20 observations each) whose cold-start Gauss fit ran past a 420 s deadline and returned nothing. These are the cases an alternative initial-orbit method exists to cover, and there was no fixture for them.

Reference elements are MPCORB's, fitted to each object's full observation history rather than to the short arc, so they are an external check and not a restatement of layup's own answer. Published semi-major axes run 2.10 to 3.93 au: 54 main belt and one Hilda-region object. That is the regime the Herget prototype's hardcoded 40 au starting range does not reach, which is what makes the choice of that range measurable.

The test asserts only what must hold whatever the method does: an arc that converges lands on the published orbit. It deliberately does not pin how many arcs converge, nor the initial-orbit state, since the starting range is open work in #502 and pinning either would fail on the improvement it exists to encourage. The fitting pass is opt-in with LAYUP_RUN_X05_FITS=1 and skips where no herget IOD is registered, so it is inert on main.

Measured over the sample: 42 of 53 converge to a median |da/a| of 2.6e-3 against MPCORB; 8 raise a Kepler convergence error, 3 find no root, and 2 exceed a 180 s deadline.

Relevant to #311 and #502.

These are Rubin-only arcs (obscode X05, 6-20 observations each) whose cold-start
Gauss fit ran past a 420 s deadline and returned nothing -- the cases an
alternative initial-orbit method exists to cover. Reference elements are
MPCORB's, fitted to each object's full history rather than to the short arc, so
they are an external check rather than a restatement of layup's own answer.

Published semi-major axes run 2.10 to 3.93 au. That is the regime the Herget
prototype's 40 au starting range does not reach, and the sample is the one that
makes the choice of that range measurable.

The test asserts only what must hold whatever the method does -- an arc that
converges lands on the published orbit. It deliberately does not pin how many
arcs converge, nor the initial-orbit state, because the starting range is open
work and pinning either would fail on the improvement it exists to encourage.
The fitting pass is opt-in via LAYUP_RUN_X05_FITS=1 and skips where no herget
IOD is registered.
Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment

Labels

None yet

Projects

None yet

Development

Successfully merging this pull request may close these issues.

1 participant