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Load CBO's February 2026 projections through 2036 into the upraters #10227

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Merged
DTrim99 merged 6 commits into from
Oct 26, 2026
Merged

Load CBO's February 2026 projections through 2036 into the upraters #10227

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4510721
Load CBO's February 2026 projections through 2036 into the upraters
DTrim99 Oct 14, 2026
c3d0880
Update two 2027 projections that move with the refreshed upraters
DTrim99 Oct 21, 2026
493ec45
Update the California AB 2591 deduction to the refreshed 2027 guidelines
DTrim99 Oct 21, 2026
aa09f0c
Merge remote-tracking branch 'PolicyEngine/main' into cbo-2026-projec…
DTrim99 Oct 23, 2026
adf8982
Address review: 430(b) cap extension, CBO 2036 CPI points, pinned seams
DTrim99 Oct 23, 2026
241b029
Expect the CPI-U YAML to end in 2036 in the dataset-extension test
DTrim99 Oct 23, 2026
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1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions changelog.d/cbo-2026-projections-2036.changed.md
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Load CBO's February 2026 projections through 2036 into the SSA, SNAP and HHS upraters, the CPI-W series, the national average wage index and the Social Security payroll cap, growing each from its latest actual (the HHS index from its 2026 value); keep CBO's 2035 CPI-U and chained CPI-U points instead of extrapolating over them and add their 2036 points; and extend the payroll cap after 2036 with the 42 U.S.C. 430(b) fixed-base formula.
3 changes: 2 additions & 1 deletion policyengine_us/parameters/gov/bls/cpi/c_cpi_u.yaml
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Expand Up @@ -332,7 +332,8 @@ values:
2033-02-01: 210.8 # 2034 value.
2034-02-01: 214.9 # 2035 value.
2035-02-01: 219.2 # 2036 value.
# Values for 2036-2100 are set programmatically in uprating_extensions.py
2036-02-01: 223.5 # 2037 value.
# Values for 2037-2100 are set programmatically in uprating_extensions.py
metadata:
economy: false
unit: currency-USD
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3 changes: 2 additions & 1 deletion policyengine_us/parameters/gov/bls/cpi/cpi_u.yaml
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Expand Up @@ -1373,7 +1373,8 @@ values:
2033-02-01: 389.6 # 2034 value.
2034-02-01: 398.4 # 2035 value.
2035-02-01: 407.3 # 2036 value.
# Values for 2036-2100 are set programmatically in uprating_extensions.py
2036-02-01: 416.5 # 2037 value.
# Values for 2037-2100 are set programmatically in uprating_extensions.py
metadata:
unit: currency-USD
label: CPI-U
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9 changes: 8 additions & 1 deletion policyengine_us/parameters/gov/bls/cpi/cpi_w.yaml
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Expand Up @@ -1402,7 +1402,14 @@ values:
2034-08-01: 391.234 # 2034Q3: 399.460 * 327.075 / 333.952
2034-11-01: 393.423 # 2034Q4: 401.695 * 327.075 / 333.952
2035-02-01: 395.625 # 2035Q1: 403.943 * 327.075 / 333.952
# Values for 2036-2100 are set programmatically in uprating_extensions.py
2035-05-01: 397.838 # 2035Q2: 406.203 * 327.075 / 333.952
2035-08-01: 400.064 # 2035Q3: 408.476 * 327.075 / 333.952
2035-11-01: 402.303 # 2035Q4: 410.762 * 327.075 / 333.952
2036-02-01: 404.555 # 2036Q1: 413.061 * 327.075 / 333.952
2036-05-01: 406.819 # 2036Q2: 415.373 * 327.075 / 333.952
2036-08-01: 409.096 # 2036Q3: 417.698 * 327.075 / 333.952
2036-11-01: 411.386 # 2036Q4: 420.036 * 327.075 / 333.952
# Values for 2037-2100 are set programmatically in uprating_extensions.py
metadata:
unit: currency-USD
label: CPI-W
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47 changes: 33 additions & 14 deletions policyengine_us/parameters/gov/hhs/uprating.yaml
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description: The US indexes the federal poverty guidelines according to this schedule, annually updating based on CPI-U in the calendar year.
values:
# Actuals: calendar-year average CPI-U for the labeled year.
# NOTE: 42 U.S.C. 9902(2) and the HHS notices update guideline year Y by CPI-U
# CY(Y-1)/CY(Y-2). gov/hhs/fpg.yaml uprates guideline year Y with this index by
# CY(Y)/CY(Y-1), one year ahead of the statute. Aligning them changes this
# shared index, so it is left for a separate PR.
2022-01-01: 292.6
2023-01-01: 304.7
2024-01-01: 313.6
2025-01-01: 321.9
# CBO forecasts.
# CBO forecasts. 2026 keeps CBO's January 2025 projection, which the 2026
# amounts derived from this index already use (the separate PR on the
# statutory lag above would revisit it). Later years grow it at CBO's
# February 2026 calendar-year CPI-U growth: 2026 * CBO CPI-U (year) / CBO CPI-U (2026).
2026-01-01: 328.4
2027-01-01: 336.1
2028-01-01: 343.6
2029-01-01: 351.3
2030-01-01: 359.2
2031-01-01: 367.2
2032-01-01: 375.5
2033-01-01: 383.9
2034-01-01: 392.5
2035-01-01: 401.3
# Values for 2036-2100 are set programmatically in uprating_extensions.py
2027-01-01: 336.766 # 328.4 * 340.260 / 331.807
2028-01-01: 344.719 # 328.4 * 348.295 / 331.807
2029-01-01: 352.606 # 328.4 * 356.264 / 331.807
2030-01-01: 360.587 # 328.4 * 364.328 / 331.807
2031-01-01: 368.732 # 328.4 * 372.557 / 331.807
2032-01-01: 377.055 # 328.4 * 380.967 / 331.807
2033-01-01: 385.564 # 328.4 * 389.564 / 331.807
2034-01-01: 394.265 # 328.4 * 398.355 / 331.807
2035-01-01: 403.163 # 328.4 * 407.346 / 331.807
2036-01-01: 412.265 # 328.4 * 416.542 / 331.807
# Values for 2037-2100 are set programmatically in uprating_extensions.py
metadata:
economy: false
unit: currency-USD
Expand All @@ -28,6 +36,17 @@ metadata:
href: https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/FR-2025-01-17/2025-01377
- title: 2024 Annual Update of the HHS Poverty Guidelines
href: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/01/17/2024-00796/annual-update-of-the-hhs-poverty-guidelines
- title: CBO Budget and Economic Outlook | 2024 to 2034
# Jan 2025 Economic Projections | 2. Calendar Year | Row 51
href: https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data#4
- title: 42 U.S. Code § 9902(2)
href: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/9902#2
- title: 2026 Annual Update of the HHS Poverty Guidelines
href: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/01/15/2026-00755/annual-update-of-the-hhs-poverty-guidelines
- title: CBO | Economic Projections | January 2025
# 2026: Sheet 2. Calendar Year, Row 53, CPI-U 328.446 (Row 51 in the original January 2025 release, before CBO's April 30, 2025 update)
href: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51135-2025-01-Economic-Projections.xlsx
- title: CBO | Economic Projections | January 2025, calendar-year CSV (variable cpiu)
href: https://github.com/US-CBO/cbo-data/blob/284a95665f9f2f74ed1f482feb629b43fce323da/data/economic/economic_projections/calendar_2025-01.csv
- title: CBO | Economic Projections | February 2026
# Sheet: 2. Calendar Year, Row 53: CPI-U
href: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/51135-2026-02-Economic-Projections.xlsx
- title: CBO | Economic Projections | February 2026, calendar-year CSV (variable cpiu)
href: https://github.com/US-CBO/cbo-data/blob/284a95665f9f2f74ed1f482feb629b43fce323da/data/economic/economic_projections/calendar_2026-02.csv
33 changes: 21 additions & 12 deletions policyengine_us/parameters/gov/irs/payroll/social_security/cap.yaml
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Expand Up @@ -61,15 +61,22 @@ values:
# Official SSA determinations.
2026-01-01: 184_500
2027-01-01: 192_300
# CBO forecast.
2028-01-01: 198_600
2029-01-01: 206_400
2030-01-01: 214_200
2031-01-01: 222_300
2032-01-01: 230_100
2033-01-01: 237_900
2034-01-01: 246_000
2035-01-01: 254_400
# Forecasts apply 42 U.S.C. 430(b) to the projected NAWI in
# parameters/gov/ssa/nawi.yaml, which follows CBO's February 2026 CBB
# growth from the published 2025 NAWI:
# CBB(Y) = 60_600 * NAWI(Y-2) / 22_935.42, rounded to the nearest $300.
# The levels sit above CBO's tp_ss_max_earnings (2036: 260_400 against
# 258_600), because NAWI grows from SSA's published 2025 value; only CBO's
# growth is used.
2028-01-01: 199_200 # 60_600 * 75_428.91 / 22_935.42 = 199_298.38
2029-01-01: 206_700 # 60_600 * 78_286.07 / 22_935.42 = 206_847.57
2030-01-01: 214_200 # 60_600 * 81_028.94 / 22_935.42 = 214_094.78
2031-01-01: 221_400 # 60_600 * 83_771.81 / 22_935.42 = 221_342.00
2032-01-01: 228_600 # 60_600 * 86_514.68 / 22_935.42 = 228_589.21
2033-01-01: 236_400 # 60_600 * 89_486.12 / 22_935.42 = 236_440.36
2034-01-01: 243_900 # 60_600 * 92_343.28 / 22_935.42 = 243_989.55
2035-01-01: 252_000 # 60_600 * 95_429.00 / 22_935.42 = 252_142.64
2036-01-01: 260_400 # 60_600 * 98_514.73 / 22_935.42 = 260_295.76
metadata:
unit: currency-USD
period: year
Expand All @@ -87,6 +94,8 @@ metadata:
href: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/cbb.html
- title: 2027 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Fact Sheet
href: https://www.ssa.gov/news/en/cola/factsheets/2027.html
- title: CBO Tax Parameters and Effective Marginal Tax Rates | Jan 2025
# 1. Tax Parameters. Row 161.
href: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/53724-2025-01-Tax-Parameters.xlsx
- title: CBO | Tax Parameters and Effective Marginal Tax Rates | February 2026
# Sheet: 1. Tax Parameters, Row 155: Maximum taxable earnings for the Social Security payroll tax
href: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/53724-2026-02-Tax-Parameters.xlsx
- title: CBO | Tax Parameters | February 2026, CSV (variable tp_ss_max_earnings)
href: https://github.com/US-CBO/cbo-data/blob/284a95665f9f2f74ed1f482feb629b43fce323da/data/budget/tax_parameters/annual_cy_2026-02.csv
55 changes: 23 additions & 32 deletions policyengine_us/parameters/gov/ssa/nawi.yaml
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Expand Up @@ -75,37 +75,25 @@ values:
2023-01-01: 66_621.80 # NAWI(Y-2) for CBB(2025)
2024-01-01: 69_846.57 # NAWI(Y-2) for CBB(2026)
2025-01-01: 72_800.33 # NAWI(Y-2) for CBB(2027); published 2026-10-14
# Back out NAWI from CBO's forecast of the payroll tax cap, in
# parameters/gov/irs/payroll/social_security/cap.yaml
# The formula to derive NAWI(Y-2) from CBB(Y) is:
# NAWI(Y-2) approx = CBB(Y) * (NAWI_1992 / CBB_1994)
# where NAWI_1992 = 22_935.42 and CBB_1994 = 60_600.
# CBB(Y) is the Contribution and Benefit Base (payroll tax cap) for year Y.
# NAWI(Y-2) is the National Average Wage Index for year Y-2.
# The contribution and benefit base (CBB, the payroll tax cap) for year Y is
# CBB(Y) = CBB_1994 * NAWI(Y-2) / NAWI_1992, rounded to the nearest $300,
# where NAWI_1992 = 22_935.42 and CBB_1994 = 60_600. So CBB growth tracks
# NAWI growth two years earlier.

# For 2026 NAWI, derived from CBO CBB(2028) = 198_600: 198_600 * (22_935.42 / 60_600)
2026-01-01: 75_168.61
# For 2027 NAWI, derived from CBO CBB(2029) = 206_400: 206_400 * (22_935.42 / 60_600)
2027-01-01: 78_124.71
# For 2028 NAWI, derived from CBO CBB(2030) = 214_200: 214_200 * (22_935.42 / 60_600)
2028-01-01: 81_080.80
# For 2029 NAWI, derived from CBO CBB(2031) = 222_300: 222_300 * (22_935.42 / 60_600)
2029-01-01: 84_149.34
# For 2030 NAWI, derived from CBO CBB(2032) = 230_100: 230_100 * (22_935.42 / 60_600)
2030-01-01: 87_090.55
# For 2031 NAWI, derived from CBO CBB(2033) = 237_900: 237_900 * (22_935.42 / 60_600)
2031-01-01: 90_031.76
# For 2032 NAWI, derived from CBO CBB(2034) = 246_000: 246_000 * (22_935.42 / 60_600)
2032-01-01: 93_088.94
# For 2033 NAWI, derived from CBO CBB(2035) = 254_400: 254_400 * (22_935.42 / 60_600)
2033-01-01: 96_258.56
# For 2034 NAWI, projected using the growth rate from NAWI(2032) to NAWI(2033).
# Growth Multiplier = NAWI(2033) / NAWI(2032) = 96_258.56 / 93_088.94.
# NAWI(2034) = NAWI(2033) * Growth Multiplier.
2034-01-01: 99_536.06
# For 2035 NAWI, projected using the growth rate from NAWI(2032) to NAWI(2033).
# NAWI(2035) = NAWI(2034) * Growth Multiplier.
2035-01-01: 102_920.73
# Later years carry the published NAWI(2025) forward at the wage growth
# implied by CBO's February 2026 CBB projections (tax parameter
# tp_ss_max_earnings): NAWI(Y-2) = NAWI(2025) * CBO CBB(Y) / CBO CBB(2027),
# where CBO CBB(2027) = 191_100.
2026-01-01: 75_428.91 # CBO CBB(2028) = 198_000: 72_800.33 * 198_000 / 191_100
2027-01-01: 78_286.07 # CBO CBB(2029) = 205_500
2028-01-01: 81_028.94 # CBO CBB(2030) = 212_700
2029-01-01: 83_771.81 # CBO CBB(2031) = 219_900
2030-01-01: 86_514.68 # CBO CBB(2032) = 227_100
2031-01-01: 89_486.12 # CBO CBB(2033) = 234_900
2032-01-01: 92_343.28 # CBO CBB(2034) = 242_400
2033-01-01: 95_429.00 # CBO CBB(2035) = 250_500
2034-01-01: 98_514.73 # CBO CBB(2036) = 258_600
# Values for 2035-2100 are set programmatically in uprating_extensions.py
metadata:
unit: currency-USD
period: year
Expand All @@ -114,5 +102,8 @@ metadata:
reference:
- title: Social Security National Average Wage Index
href: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/AWI.html#Series
- title: 2027 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Fact Sheet
href: https://www.ssa.gov/news/en/cola/factsheets/2027.html
- title: CBO | Tax Parameters and Effective Marginal Tax Rates | February 2026
# Sheet: 1. Tax Parameters, Row 155: Maximum taxable earnings for the Social Security payroll tax
href: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/53724-2026-02-Tax-Parameters.xlsx
- title: CBO | Tax Parameters | February 2026, CSV (variable tp_ss_max_earnings)
href: https://github.com/US-CBO/cbo-data/blob/284a95665f9f2f74ed1f482feb629b43fce323da/data/budget/tax_parameters/annual_cy_2026-02.csv
39 changes: 26 additions & 13 deletions policyengine_us/parameters/gov/ssa/uprating.yaml
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Expand Up @@ -7,26 +7,39 @@ values:
2025-01-01: 308.729 # 2024Q3: (308.501 + 308.640 + 309.046) / 3
2026-01-01: 317.265 # 2025Q3: (316.349 + 317.306 + 318.139) / 3
2027-01-01: 328.746 # 2026Q3: (327.104 + 328.481 + 330.654) / 3
# Forecasts from marrying CPI-W actuals with CBO's CPI-U forecast.
2028-01-01: 332.241 # 2027Q3: 337.3 * 306.199 / 310.989
2029-01-01: 339.431 # 2028Q3: 344.6 * 306.199 / 310.989
2030-01-01: 346.917 # 2029Q3: 352.2 * 306.199 / 310.989
2031-01-01: 354.6 # 2030Q3: 360.0 * 306.199 / 310.989
2032-01-01: 362.579 # 2031Q3: 368.1 * 306.199 / 310.989
2033-01-01: 370.656 # 2032Q3: 376.3 * 306.199 / 310.989
2034-01-01: 379.028 # 2033Q3: 384.8 * 306.199 / 310.989
2035-01-01: 387.598 # 2034Q3: 393.5 * 306.199 / 310.989
# Values for 2036-2100 are set programmatically in uprating_extensions.py
# Forecasts carry the 2026Q3 CPI-W actual forward at CBO's February 2026
# quarterly CPI-U growth: 2026Q3 actual * CBO CPI-U (Q3) / CBO CPI-U (2026Q3).
# CBO's Economic Projections publish no CPI-W series, so CBO CPI-U Q3/Q3
# growth stands in for CPI-W Q3/Q3. CBO's own projected COLAs (2.3% a year
# for 2029-2036) match this growth (2.26% a year) to the tenth of a percent
# that CBO publishes.
2028-01-01: 336.945 # 2027Q3: 328.746 * 341.281 / 332.976
2029-01-01: 344.854 # 2028Q3: 328.746 * 349.291 / 332.976
2030-01-01: 352.722 # 2029Q3: 328.746 * 357.260 / 332.976
2031-01-01: 360.699 # 2030Q3: 328.746 * 365.340 / 332.976
2032-01-01: 368.845 # 2031Q3: 328.746 * 373.591 / 332.976
2033-01-01: 377.171 # 2032Q3: 328.746 * 382.024 / 332.976
2034-01-01: 385.681 # 2033Q3: 328.746 * 390.644 / 332.976
2035-01-01: 394.385 # 2034Q3: 328.746 * 399.460 / 332.976
2036-01-01: 403.287 # 2035Q3: 328.746 * 408.476 / 332.976
# Values for 2037-2100 are set programmatically in uprating_extensions.py
metadata:
economy: false
unit: currency-USD
label: SSA uprating
reference:
- title: Historical values
- title: SSA | Cost-of-living adjustments, 1975-present
href: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/colaseries.html
- title: 42 U.S. Code § 415(i)
href: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/415#i
- title: BLS CPI-W, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted (CWUR0000SA0)
href: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CWUR0000SA0
- title: 2027 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) Fact Sheet
href: https://www.ssa.gov/news/en/cola/factsheets/2027.html
- title: CBO Economic Projections, February 2024.
href: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59710
- title: CBO | Economic Projections | February 2026
# Sheet: 1. Quarterly, Row 53: CPI-U
href: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/51135-2026-02-Economic-Projections.xlsx
- title: CBO | Economic Projections | February 2026, quarterly CSV (variable cpiu)
href: https://github.com/US-CBO/cbo-data/blob/284a95665f9f2f74ed1f482feb629b43fce323da/data/economic/economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv
- title: CBO | The Budget and Economic Outlook, 2026 to 2036 | February 2026, Chapter 3, Social Security (projected COLAs)
href: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/61882-Outlook-2026.pdf#page=74
38 changes: 24 additions & 14 deletions policyengine_us/parameters/gov/usda/snap/uprating.yaml
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Expand Up @@ -8,24 +8,34 @@ values:
2024-10-01: 314.175 # 2024-06.
2025-10-01: 322.561 # 2025-06.
2026-10-01: 333.952 # 2026-06.
# Forecasts from CBO's Q2 forecasts.
2027-10-01: 335.5 # 2027Q2
2028-10-01: 342.7 # 2028Q2
2029-10-01: 350.3 # 2029Q2
2030-10-01: 358.1 # 2030Q2
2031-10-01: 366.1 # 2031Q2
2032-10-01: 374.3 # 2032Q2
2033-10-01: 382.7 # 2033Q2
2034-10-01: 391.3 # 2034Q2
# Values for 2035-2100 are set programmatically in uprating.py
# Forecasts carry the June 2026 actual forward at CBO's February 2026
# quarterly CPI-U growth: June 2026 actual * CBO CPI-U (Q2) / CBO CPI-U (2026Q2).
2027-10-01: 342.578 # 2027Q2: 333.952 * 339.250 / 330.708
2028-10-01: 350.71 # 2028Q2: 333.952 * 347.303 / 330.708
2029-10-01: 358.747 # 2029Q2: 333.952 * 355.262 / 330.708
2030-10-01: 366.868 # 2030Q2: 333.952 * 363.304 / 330.708
2031-10-01: 375.156 # 2031Q2: 333.952 * 371.512 / 330.708
2032-10-01: 383.625 # 2032Q2: 333.952 * 379.898 / 330.708
2033-10-01: 392.282 # 2033Q2: 333.952 * 388.471 / 330.708
2034-10-01: 401.134 # 2034Q2: 333.952 * 397.237 / 330.708
2035-10-01: 410.188 # 2035Q2: 333.952 * 406.203 / 330.708
2036-10-01: 419.448 # 2036Q2: 333.952 * 415.373 / 330.708
# Values for 2037-2100 are set programmatically in uprating_extensions.py
metadata:
unit: currency-USD
label: SNAP uprating
economy: false
reference:
- title: 7 U.S. Code § 2012(u)(4)
href: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/7/2012#u_4
- title: 7 U.S. Code § 2012(u)(3)(C)
href: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/7/2012#u_3_C
- title: 7 U.S. Code § 2012(u)(4) (2023 edition, before Pub. L. 119-21)
href: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2023-title7/html/USCODE-2023-title7-chap51-sec2012.htm
- title: 7 CFR 273.10(e)(4)(ii)
href: https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-7/part-273/section-273.10#p-273.10(e)(4)(ii)
- title: BLS Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), all items, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted (CUUR0000SA0)
href: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0
- title: CBO Economic Projections, February 2024.
href: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59710
- title: CBO | Economic Projections | February 2026
# Sheet: 1. Quarterly, Row 53: CPI-U
href: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-02/51135-2026-02-Economic-Projections.xlsx
- title: CBO | Economic Projections | February 2026, quarterly CSV (variable cpiu)
href: https://github.com/US-CBO/cbo-data/blob/284a95665f9f2f74ed1f482feb629b43fce323da/data/economic/economic_projections/quarterly_2026-02.csv
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