Project Medicare premiums and IRMAA past the last announced year

changelog.d/medicare-part-b-premium-uprating.fixed.md

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+Project Medicare Part A, B and D premiums, the Part A deductible, and the Part B and D income-related adjustment amounts and thresholds past CMS's last announced year, using the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report and the statutory inflation adjustment, instead of holding them at their 2026 values.

policyengine_us/parameters/calibration/gov/hhs/cms/medicare_part_a_deductible.yaml

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+description: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) sets, and the Medicare Trustees project, this Medicare Part A inpatient hospital deductible per benefit period.
+metadata:
+  unit: currency-USD
+  period: year
+  label: Medicare Part A inpatient hospital deductible
+  reference:
+  # Table V.E1, "HI Cost-Sharing and Premium Amounts", "Inpatient hospital
+  # deductible" column (file page 212): historical amounts through 2026 and
+  # intermediate estimates for 2027-2035. Report transmitted 2026-06-09,
+  # retrieved 2026-10-11, sha256
+  # ffa56b9137006872300b0346149eae1613d09a172b6ba118aad48e66dfc48fa8.
+  - title: 2026 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds, Table V.E1
+    href: https://www.cms.gov/oact/tr/2026#page=212
+  - title: 2026 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles
+    href: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2026-medicare-parts-b-premiums-deductibles
+values:
+  # Historical.
+  2015-01-01: 1_260
+  2016-01-01: 1_288
+  2017-01-01: 1_316
+  2018-01-01: 1_340
+  2019-01-01: 1_364
+  2020-01-01: 1_408
+  2021-01-01: 1_484
+  2022-01-01: 1_556
+  2023-01-01: 1_600
+  2024-01-01: 1_632
+  2025-01-01: 1_676
+  2026-01-01: 1_736
+  # Trustees' intermediate estimates.
+  2027-01-01: 1_788
+  2028-01-01: 1_844
+  2029-01-01: 1_900
+  2030-01-01: 1_960
+  2031-01-01: 2_028
+  2032-01-01: 2_092
+  2033-01-01: 2_160
+  2034-01-01: 2_228
+  2035-01-01: 2_296
+  # 2036 to 2100 grow at the 2034-2035 rate (2,296 / 2,228, 3.1% a year) and
+  # later years hold the 2100 value; see set_all_uprating_parameters in
+  # uprating_extensions.py.

policyengine_us/parameters/calibration/gov/hhs/cms/medicare_part_a_premium_per_enrollee.yaml

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+description: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) sets, and the Medicare Trustees project, this standard monthly Medicare Part A premium per enrollee who has fewer than 30 quarters of Medicare-covered employment.
+metadata:
+  unit: currency-USD
+  period: month
+  label: Medicare Part A standard monthly premium per enrollee
+  reference:
+  # Table V.E1, "HI Cost-Sharing and Premium Amounts", "Monthly premium,
+  # Standard" column (file page 212): historical amounts through 2026 and
+  # intermediate estimates for 2027-2035. Report transmitted 2026-06-09,
+  # retrieved 2026-10-11, sha256
+  # ffa56b9137006872300b0346149eae1613d09a172b6ba118aad48e66dfc48fa8.
+  - title: 2026 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds, Table V.E1
+    href: https://www.cms.gov/oact/tr/2026#page=212
+  - title: 2026 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles
+    href: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2026-medicare-parts-b-premiums-deductibles
+values:
+  # Historical.
+  2015-01-01: 407
+  2016-01-01: 411
+  2017-01-01: 413
+  2018-01-01: 422
+  2019-01-01: 437
+  2020-01-01: 458
+  2021-01-01: 471
+  2022-01-01: 499
+  2023-01-01: 506
+  2024-01-01: 505
+  2025-01-01: 518
+  2026-01-01: 565
+  # Trustees' intermediate estimates.
+  2027-01-01: 600
+  2028-01-01: 629
+  2029-01-01: 660
+  2030-01-01: 694
+  2031-01-01: 730
+  2032-01-01: 767
+  2033-01-01: 812
+  2034-01-01: 862
+  2035-01-01: 900
+  # 2036 to 2100 grow at the 2034-2035 rate (900 / 862, 4.4% a year) and later
+  # years hold the 2100 value; see set_all_uprating_parameters in
+  # uprating_extensions.py.

policyengine_us/parameters/calibration/gov/hhs/cms/medicare_part_d_base_beneficiary_premium_per_enrollee.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
+description: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) sets, and the Medicare Trustees project, this Medicare Part D base beneficiary premium per enrollee.
+metadata:
+  unit: currency-USD
+  period: month
+  label: Medicare Part D base beneficiary premium per enrollee
+  reference:
+  # Table V.E2, "SMI Cost-Sharing and Premium Amounts", "Part D, Base
+  # beneficiary premium" column (file page 213): historical amounts through
+  # 2026 and intermediate estimates for 2027-2035. The 2030 jump comes from
+  # the end of the 6 percent cap on yearly growth (42 U.S.C. 1395w-113(a)(8)):
+  # from 2030 the premium is the (a)(9) percent of the national average
+  # monthly bid amount and catastrophic reinsurance, and the Trustees expect
+  # that percent's 20 percent floor to bind (file page 154). Report
+  # transmitted 2026-06-09, retrieved 2026-10-11, sha256
+  # ffa56b9137006872300b0346149eae1613d09a172b6ba118aad48e66dfc48fa8.
+  - title: "2026 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds, Table V.E2 and Part D premiums #page 154,213"
+    href: https://www.cms.gov/oact/tr/2026#page=154
+  # "For 2027, the base beneficiary premium will be $41.33." Fact sheet of
+  # July 28, 2026.
+  - title: Medicare Part D 2027 National Average Monthly Bid Amount Information
+    href: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/medicare-part-d-2027-national-average-monthly-bid-amount-information
+values:
+  # Historical.
+  2015-01-01: 33.13
+  2016-01-01: 34.10
+  2017-01-01: 35.63
+  2018-01-01: 35.02
+  2019-01-01: 33.19
+  2020-01-01: 32.74
+  2021-01-01: 33.06
+  2022-01-01: 33.37
+  2023-01-01: 32.74
+  2024-01-01: 34.70
+  2025-01-01: 36.78
+  2026-01-01: 38.99
+  # Announced by CMS, equal to the Trustees' intermediate estimate.
+  2027-01-01: 41.33
+  # Trustees' intermediate estimates.
+  2028-01-01: 43.81
+  2029-01-01: 46.44
+  2030-01-01: 68.93
+  2031-01-01: 71.27
+  2032-01-01: 71.59
+  2033-01-01: 74.01
+  2034-01-01: 75.48
+  2035-01-01: 77.81
+  # 2036 to 2100 grow at the 2034-2035 rate (77.81 / 75.48, 3.1% a year) and
+  # later years hold the 2100 value; see set_all_uprating_parameters in
+  # uprating_extensions.py.

policyengine_us/parameters/gov/hhs/medicare/part_a/deductible.yaml

@@ -3,6 +3,12 @@ metadata:
   unit: currency-USD
   period: year
   label: Medicare Part A deductible
+  # After the last announced year, the deductible follows the Medicare
+  # Trustees' projected deductible (calibration.gov.hhs.cms.medicare_part_a_deductible),
+  # rounded to the nearest multiple of $4 with a midpoint rounded up, as 42
+  # U.S.C. 1395e(b)(1) requires. extend_medicare_part_a_deductible in
+  # uprating_extensions.py projects it, because core's uprating rounding
+  # sends a midpoint to the even multiple.
   reference:
     - title: 42 U.S.C. § 1395e(b)(1)
       href: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/1395e#b_1

policyengine_us/parameters/gov/hhs/medicare/part_a/full_premium.yaml

@@ -3,6 +3,12 @@ metadata:
   unit: currency-USD
   period: month
   label: Medicare Part A full premium
+  # After the last announced year, the premium grows with the Medicare
+  # Trustees' projected standard Part A premium
+  # (calibration.gov.hhs.cms.medicare_part_a_premium_per_enrollee), rounded to
+  # the nearest dollar with 50-cent amounts rounded up, as 42 U.S.C.
+  # 1395i-2(d)(2) requires; see extend_medicare_part_a_premiums in
+  # uprating_extensions.py.
   reference:
     - title: 42 U.S.C. § 1395i-2(d)
       href: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/1395i-2#d

policyengine_us/parameters/gov/hhs/medicare/part_a/reduced_premium.yaml

@@ -3,6 +3,10 @@ metadata:
   unit: currency-USD
   period: month
   label: Medicare Part A reduced premium
+  # After the last announced year, the premium is the projected full premium
+  # reduced by 45 percent, as 42 U.S.C. 1395i-2(d)(4) sets it, rounded to the
+  # nearest dollar with 50-cent amounts rounded up, as CMS publishes it; see
+  # extend_medicare_part_a_premiums in uprating_extensions.py.
   reference:
     - title: 42 U.S.C. § 1395i-2(d)
       href: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/1395i-2#d

policyengine_us/parameters/gov/hhs/medicare/part_b/base_premium.yaml

@@ -3,6 +3,14 @@ metadata:
   unit: currency-USD
   period: month
   label: Medicare Part B base premium
+  # After the last announced year, the premium follows the Medicare Trustees'
+  # projected standard premium, rounded to the nearest 10 cents as 42 U.S.C.
+  # 1395r(c) requires.
+  uprating:
+    parameter: calibration.gov.hhs.cms.medicare_part_b_premium_per_enrollee
+    rounding:
+      type: nearest
+      interval: 0.1
   reference:
     - title: Medicare Part B premium rates beginning January 1, 2015 (79 FR 61314)
       href: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2014-10-10/pdf/2014-24248.pdf#page=1
@@ -22,6 +30,8 @@ metadata:
       href: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2021-11-17/pdf/2021-25050.pdf#page=1
     - title: Medicare Part B premium rates beginning January 1, 2023 (87 FR 59080)
       href: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2022-09-29/pdf/2022-21090.pdf#page=1
+    - title: 42 U.S.C. § 1395r(a)(3) and (c)
+      href: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/42/1395r#a_3
     - title: 2021 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles
       href: https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021-medicare-part-b-premiums-remain-steady
     - title: 2022 Medicare Parts A & B Premiums and Deductibles