[MaxGhenis]

Fixes #2783

Reproducer: policyengine_uk/tests/test_scottish_income_tax_rates.py::test_scottish_rates_and_limits_match_each_resolution, policyengine_uk/tests/policy/baseline/finance/tax/income_tax/scottish_rate_resolutions.yaml

axiom: TheAxiomFoundation/rulespec-uk#541 queued

What and why

Each year the Scottish Parliament sets the Scottish rates and limits for one tax year by a Scottish rate resolution (Scotland Act 1998 s. 80C(1) and (3)). PolicyEngine applied different rates or limits in four tax years:

Tax year	Motion	Value	Before	After
2018-19	S5M-10397 (c), (d)	Intermediate rate limit, where the higher rate starts	£31,500	£31,580
2018-19 to 2020-21	S5M-10397, S5M-15879, S5M-21090 (d)	Higher rate	40%	41%
2019-20	S5M-15879 (a)-(c)	Starter, basic and intermediate rate limits	£2,000, £12,150, £31,500	£2,049, £12,444, £30,930
2020-21	S5M-21090 (a)-(c)	Starter, basic and intermediate rate limits	£2,000, £12,150, £31,500	£2,085, £12,658, £30,930
2021-22	S5M-24225 (a), (b)	Starter and basic rate limits	£2,306, £13,991	£2,097, £12,726

PolicyEngine applied 40% through 2020-21, reused the 2018-19 limits in 2019-20 and 2020-21, and applied the 2024-25 starter and basic rate limits (S6M-12252) in 2021-22. The 2017-18 (S5M-03912), 2022-23 (S6M-03019) and 2023-24 (S6M-07853) values already matched, and so did 2024-25 to 2026-27.

We cite Parliament's motion and paragraph beside each rate and limit from 2017-18 to 2026-27, and list every resolution from 2017-18 in the references. We left the personal allowance, the rest-of-UK rates, the uprating metadata, the announced freeze through 2028-29 and every formula as they were, and moved Scottish income tax's verified start year in programs.yaml from 2019 to 2017. Over main, this pull request changes six files: rates.yaml, programs.yaml, changelog.d/2783.fixed.md, scottish_rate_resolutions.yaml, test_scottish_income_tax_rates.py and test_council_tax_reduction_pensioner_children_tariff_properties.py.

Limits of income after the allowance

In the 2017-18 to 2023-24 motions, Parliament charges each rate on "income" up to a limit. It sets those limits on income after the personal allowance: the taxpayer deducts the allowance at Step 3 and works out the tax at each rate at Step 4 (ITA 2007 s. 23). From 2024-25 Parliament says so in the motions, where s. 11A charges this income "above the personal allowance". We kept the limits in that form in rates.yaml, as before.

The Scottish Government adds the standard personal allowance to each limit in its table for each year (gov.scot), and its figures agree with the limits in every year from 2017-18 to 2026-27. The allowance falls by £1 for every £2 of income above £100,000 (s. 35(2)), so none remains at the £150,000 and £125,140 tops, and there the Scottish Government's figure equals the limit. For example:

Tax year	Allowance	Resolution limits (income after the allowance)	gov.scot band tops (income)
2018-19	£11,850	£2,000, £12,150, £31,580, £150,000	£13,850, £24,000, £43,430, £150,000
2019-20	£12,500	£2,049, £12,444, £30,930, £150,000	£14,549, £24,944, £43,430, £150,000
2020-21	£12,500	£2,085, £12,658, £30,930, £150,000	£14,585, £25,158, £43,430, £150,000
2021-22	£12,570	£2,097, £12,726, £31,092, £150,000	£14,667, £25,296, £43,662, £150,000

test_scottish_limits_plus_personal_allowance_match_gov_scot_tables checks this for every year against the model's personal allowance.

Model years

convert_to_fiscal_year_parameters (policyengine_uk/utils/parameters.py) gives each year label the value in force on 30 April, so a value dated 6 April reaches that year's label: 2019-04-06 sets model year 2019 (2019-20). The tests read the model year. They also read the statutory tree on 6 April, on every date rates.yaml gives within the tax year and on the following 5 April, and they check that no rate or limit takes effect before 6 April 2017.

Readers

Twelve files read this scale: earned_income_tax, property_income_tax, tax_band, meets_marriage_allowance_income_conditions, marriage_allowance_appropriate_percentage, uc_income_tax (policyengine_uk/utils/uc_income_tax.py), uc_minimum_income_floor_income_tax, private_pension_contributions_tax, carers_allowance_earnings, esa_exempt_work_earnings, pension_credit_self_employment_deductions and the working-age Council Tax Reduction earnings rule (council_tax_reduction/working_age/_earnings.py). They read brackets by position, and first_extended_scottish_threshold (policyengine_uk/utils/income_tax.py) and tax_band tell the schedules apart by their number of limits. We kept the order of the brackets and the number in force in each year (three in 2017-18, five from 2018-19 to 2023-24, six from 2024-25), so each reader still finds each band where it was. For example, marriage_allowance_appropriate_percentage and the Council Tax Reduction earnings rule both read the Scottish basic rate from the scale's second bracket, which holds 20% in every year.

What moves

We compared this branch at c1d55699d962994f54fef4ccb9fb436d11b47e3a with main at 3c51e6c00f2e27bcb25f135bdf7dab66472253ef for 2015 to 2030, using 930 hand-built units. We built 465 single adults and 465 married couples with a spouse earning £5,000, across Scotland, the North East and Wales. Each adult earns one of 31 pay amounts from £0 to £160,000, with pay alone or with £5,000 of dividends, £5,000 or £29,500 of savings, or £10,000 of property income.

• income_tax and household_net_income move only in Scotland, and only in 2018 (138 of 930 units), 2019 (268), 2020 (268) and 2021 (252). Nothing moves in 2015-2017 or 2022-2030, or outside Scotland.

• On pay alone, for a single adult:

  Pay	2018-19	2019-20	2020-21	2021-22
  £20,000	0	−£0.49	−£0.85	+£2.09
  £35,000	0	−£3.43	−£5.93	+£14.74
  £43,430	−£15.20	−£3.43	−£5.93	+£14.74
  £50,000	+£50.50	+£170.57	+£168.07	+£14.74
  £100,000	+£550.50	+£670.57	+£668.07	+£14.74
  £150,000 and £160,000	+£1,169.00	+£1,295.57	+£1,293.07	+£14.74

• Parliament charges a Scottish taxpayer's savings and dividends at the rest-of-UK rates (ITA 2007 ss. 11D(6) and 13(5)), and savings_income_tax and dividend_income_tax move in no unit, single or couple, in any year. earned_income_tax moves (130, 260, 260 and 240 units in 2018 to 2021), and so does property_income_tax (30, 46, 50 and 22), since property income bears the Scottish rates. In 2018-19 a single adult with £45,000 of pay pays £0.50 more on the pay (£7,133.50 to £7,134.00), and £5,000 of dividends or savings on top still costs £975 or £1,630. With £10,000 of property income instead, the tax on the property income rises from £4,000 to £4,100, and their income tax by £100.50, from £11,133.50 to £11,234.00.

• tax_band moves for Scottish taxpayers between an old and a new limit: 2 units in 2018, 30 in 2019, 32 in 2020 and 8 in 2021.

• The Marriage Allowance changes in 19 couple-year observations across 10 of the couples. In 2018-19 the earner with £43,430 of pay (£31,580 after the allowance) now receives the £1,190 transfer, since their last pounds stay at the intermediate rate. In 2019-20 and 2020-21 the same nine earners lose the £1,250 transfer: with £30,931 to £31,500 after the allowance (pay of £43,431, £43,662 or £44,000, alone or with £5,000 of dividends or savings), their last pounds now bear the 41% higher rate, which s. 55B(2)(b) doesn't list.

We used no survey data, so the run gives no aggregate. CI's Aggregate impact report (run 42748132964) covers 2025-26 to 2031-32, after the years this pull request corrects. It compares main at 3c51e6c00f with a0a09bcb3b, CI's merge of c1d5569 into that main, with a full microsimulation for each side and year on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1). It flags no move and finds no change in any household's net income, tax receipt or poverty rate. The change breaks none of its checks, and one check fails on both sides.

Council Tax Reduction follows net income. Of the households that test_matches_origin_main_on_unchanged_households compares with main, three Scottish taxpayers pay £0.49, £0.49 and £3.43 less tax in 2019-20. Their applicable income rises by the same amounts, and their awards fall by 20% of each, from £1,380.24, £889.22 and £461.48 to £1,380.14, £889.13 and £460.79. We moved those three rows of the test's table from main's values to these, and wrote the arithmetic beside them.

Marriage Allowance

On main, tax_band bands a Scottish taxpayer's non-savings income on the Scottish limits and their savings and dividends on the rest-of-UK limits, and keeps income at a limit in the band below (#2828). meets_marriage_allowance_income_conditions applies the rate conditions of ITA 2007 s. 55B(2)(b) and (ba) to income directly: it tests non-savings income against the limit where the Scottish higher rate starts, and savings and dividends against the rest-of-UK basic rate limit. marriage_allowance_tax_reduction gives the earner a reduction of the transferred amount at the Scottish basic rate, 20%, at Step 6 of s. 23 (s. 55A(2), s. 55B(1) and (3)).

The couple cases in scottish_rate_resolutions.yaml cover 2018-19, 2019-20 and 2020-21. An earner at the limit, and one with pay and savings, can receive the allowance, and one £1 above the limit cannot. Twin couples who make no election pay tax at the rates Parliament set. For the five claiming couples, the cases check the transfer, the reduction and the earner's income tax against the law, and the differential gives the same totals, with no tax on the spouse:

Tax year	Earner's income	Transfer	Reduction	Earner's income tax
2018-19	£43,430 of pay	£1,190	£238	£6,252.30
2019-20	£43,430 of pay	£1,250	£250	£6,100.37
2019-20	£14,000 of pay, £29,500 of savings	£1,250	£250	£5,035.00
2020-21	£43,430 of pay	£1,250	£250	£6,097.87
2020-21	£14,000 of pay, £29,500 of savings	£1,250	£250	£5,035.00

Invariants

For every input:

1. PolicyEngine gives each model year from 2017 to 2026 the rates and limits of that year's resolution, in the same order.
2. The statutory tree gives each resolution's rates and limits on every day from 6 April to the following 5 April (s. 80C(3)(b), ITA 2007 s. 4(3)), and dates no Scottish rate or limit before 6 April 2017.
3. Each limit plus the year's standard personal allowance equals gov.scot's figure where the allowance applies in full; above £100,000 plus twice the allowance, the limit equals gov.scot's figure.
4. A Scottish taxpayer's income tax on pay alone equals the resolution's bands applied to pay less the personal allowance (s. 35), in every year from 2017-18 to 2026-27.
5. A Scottish taxpayer's income tax on pay alone never falls as pay rises.
6. No taxpayer outside Scotland, and no year outside 2018-19 to 2021-22, moves.

test_scottish_income_tax_rates.py tests 1 to 3 on every year, and 4 and 5 with Hypothesis on hand-built Scottish taxpayers: 4 examples of 48 people with any whole-pound pay up to £320,000, each read in all ten years. The differential above checks 6.

Test plan

• For policy changes: YAML tests whose expected values come from an external source: scottish_rate_resolutions.yaml, 41 cases worked by hand. 29 cover pay alone, from S5M-10397, S5M-15879, S5M-21090 and S5M-24225 with each year's personal allowance, among them the issue's £50,000 of pay in 2018-19 (£9,184.00; main gives £9,133.50). 12 cover married couples, from those motions and ITA 2007 ss. 10, 12, 12A, 12B, 35, 55A and 55B.
• ruff format --check ., ruff check . and ruff check --select F811,F821 policyengine_uk (0.17.2) pass at c1d55699d; git diff --check against main reports nothing.
• Changelog fragment changelog.d/2783.fixed.md.

We ran these locally at c1d55699d962994f54fef4ccb9fb436d11b47e3a, without survey data and with policyengine-core 3.34.1:

Tests	Result
scottish_rate_resolutions.yaml	41 passed
scottish_rates.yaml	36 passed
meets_marriage_allowance_income_conditions.yaml	31 passed
marriage_allowance_tax_reduction.yaml	16 passed
policyengine_uk/tests/policy/reforms/cps/marriage_tax_reforms.yaml	10 passed
test_scottish_income_tax_rates.py, with its Hypothesis test	40 passed
test_tax_band_scottish_properties.py	5 passed
test_marriage_allowance_tax_reduction_properties.py	3 passed
test_council_tax_reduction_pensioner_children_tariff_properties.py	7 passed

CI at c1d5569 (pull_request run 42748133106, with the locked policyengine-core 3.34.9): Python shards 1 to 8 pass 13,213 tests (61 skipped, 2 xfailed), and Test / YAML passes 6,473. The Python shards run the tests that need survey data on the pinned enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1).

On main (3c51e6c00), with this branch's Scottish rate tests copied in, scottish_rate_resolutions.yaml gives 30 failures and 11 passes. test_scottish_income_tax_rates.py gives 13 failures and 27 passes: the 2018 to 2021 rows of the table, whole-year and gov.scot tests fail, and so does the Hypothesis test. The cases that pass sit where the two schedules agree, such as £1,000 of taxable income at 19% or £30,000 of pay in 2018-19, or where the old limits give the same answer, as for the couples with pay of £14,000 and savings of £29,500. With this branch's test_council_tax_reduction_pensioner_children_tariff_properties.py copied in instead, main fails the 2019 case of test_matches_origin_main_on_unchanged_households on the three Scottish rows' six values, and passes 2024 and 2026.

The new tests reject each of 64 scratch mutations of rates.yaml, none of them committed. At 9f2863f45, whose rates.yaml and Python test differ from this branch's only in comments, a harness copied the tree, applied each mutation, and ran the table, whole-year, gov.scot and first-date tests, 34 in all, which pass on the unmutated copy. Each of these mutations failed at least one of them:

• each of the 41 finite limits raised by £1;
• each year's 6 April values moved to 1 April, for 2017-18 to 2022-23;
• a £2,050 starter rate limit for July 2019 only;
• each of the 11 dated rates raised by one point;
• a higher rate of 42% for July 2019 only;
• one-day basic rate limit changes on 7 April 2019, 5 April 2020 and 5 April 2027;
• the 2017-18 values copied to 6 April 2016.

The July 2019 limit and rate failed test_each_resolution_holds_for_its_whole_tax_year[2019], the 1 April 2017 start and the 2016 copy failed test_scottish_rates_take_effect_on_6_april_2017, and the 1 April moves for 2018-19 to 2022-23 failed the previous year's whole-year test.

Merge notes

For each of the 54 open pull requests, git merge-tree --write-tree --name-only gives the same result from this branch's head (c1d55699d) as from main at 3c51e6c00: 35 merge cleanly, and the 19 that conflict with main conflict in the same files. This branch adds no conflict.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

[juaristi22]

Review status: COMPLETE at e70a40a555686fe2053d3ff0e8b8b5bb891df5a6. No findings or material evidence gaps. Approval is deferred while the exact-head hosted test checks finish.

The independent policy review matched all ten agreed Scottish rate resolutions for 2017–18 through 2026–27, including the changed historical rates/limits in S5M-10397, S5M-15879, S5M-21090, S5M-24225. It checked the limits after Personal Allowance, whole-tax-year commencement, model fiscal sampling, the newly claimed 2017 coverage, and Marriage Allowance boundary premises. The actual queued Axiom packet #541 is dispatch-ready and remains open with pe-parity; queued parity is not executed parity.

Validation under the locked Core 3.34.9: 128 tests passed (88 YAML, 40 Python), including the 41 new policy cases, 47 directly affected Marriage Allowance cases, and the full Scottish Python module. Six native household controls passed through final income tax and household net income. For 2018–19 Scotland, £45,000 pay gives £7,134 tax; adding £5,000 dividends, £5,000 savings or £10,000 property income gives £8,109, £8,764 or £11,234 respectively. North East and Wales controls give £6,630. One repository test invocation; no dependency installation, private/survey data or population run.

The review validated 42 official source/extract pairs (29 reused, 13 newly captured), checked 17 runtime pins and all 194 cached released-Core package files, and preserved 261 immutable technical evidence members before removing the disposable snapshot normally. The author's 930-unit comparison was not counted as an independent review execution.

The full code/source review is complete. I will recheck CI at this same head without repeating it and approve only after the applicable required checks pass and publication guards remain unchanged.

[github-actions]

Aggregate impact on certified data: pass

Base 3c51e6c00f against head a0a09bcb3b, both on enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5 (policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1, sha256 056e80fd8e91), fiscal years 2025-26 to 2031-32. Each year is a full microsimulation run on each side.

Checks: 0 broken by this change, 1 failing on both sides, 0 fixed. Moves flagged for review: 0 (thresholds in report_spec.yaml; a flag does not fail the job).

Workflow run and full report

Notes

• In the years a figure from fewer than 10 records is suppressed (spending.disabled_students_allowance), every total containing it, and the decile incomes, are rebuilt from their other components, so no published total includes it. Those totals are marked †. A change is withheld where the two sides leave out different figures and can't be lined up.

Moves flagged for review

None.

Spending by benefit and service

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Caseloads

Measure	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed

Household net income by decile

No household's net income changes in any year.

No change in any year: receipts by tax head; government balance, each component counted once; model totals; household income totals; population; poverty rates; people in poverty; inequality; mean household net income in each side's own deciles; standard reform costings (change in gov_balance); standard reforms: change in each reform's target.

Checks failing on both base and head (1)

• VAT excluding private school fees is never negative (sign:vat): 2025-26: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-52,314,332 in total; 2026-27: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-54,150,722 in total; 2027-28: 76 units below zero, a weighted £-56,043,426 in total

Counted-once check

The check raised each of 92 components by £1 per unit in 2026-27 and read every head of its totals household by household: its own head must rise by exactly £1, no other tax head may move, no other benefit may rise, and the model's own total must move by what its heads moved. A response that is not finite breaks every rule. The check measures a head that breaks a rule twice more: once holding every other head at its baseline value, and once holding every other head at its value after the first £1 while the component rises again. The head fails where either measurement still shows the response. The check cannot hold a head at a value that is not finite. In each unit where another head is not finite after the first £1, it holds that head at its baseline value, and the second measurement judges no household the unit belongs to. There a head fails wherever it first broke a rule, or wherever the check could not confirm whether its response contains the component. 0 failed and the check skipped 0.

• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; gov_spending; not a failure)
• widowed_parents_allowance: pension_credit responds only through other heads in fewer than 10 households (other heads that moved there: carers_allowance; household_benefits; not a failure)

Provenance

Side	Commit	Runtime	Environment hash	Partition hash	Time
base	main 3c51e6c00f	uk 2.177.4 (files 4621b7d3fad9), core 3.34.9, py 3.13.18 aarch64	5ee300c4cdc8	93bd0b3e0f8d	2480.96s
head	#2903 merged into main a0a09bcb3b	uk 2.177.4 (files e5de11a49753), core 3.34.9, py 3.13.18 aarch64	5ee300c4cdc8	93bd0b3e0f8d	2491.31s

Dataset: hf://policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private/enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5@2526edbbb687a3b54dbb11272e5389e4b62d2ac2, sha256 056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784 (verified on both sides), policyengine-uk-data 1.58.1.

Receipts by tax head: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Final charge on cash interest in non-cash ISAs	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Lifetime ISA withdrawal charge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Income tax	£294.46bn	£315.22bn	£335.80bn	£351.26bn	£366.94bn	£385.33bn	£399.97bn
National Insurance (employee and self-employed)	£51.70bn	£54.14bn	£56.13bn	£57.73bn	£59.76bn	£61.64bn	£63.51bn
National Insurance (employer)	£148.71bn	£155.37bn	£160.88bn	£165.09bn	£172.06bn	£177.36bn	£182.57bn
Employer NI change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employer NI change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Capital gains tax	£12.60bn	£13.15bn	£13.60bn	£14.11bn	£14.67bn	£15.24bn	£15.80bn
Student loan repayments	£7.82bn	£8.13bn	£8.39bn	£8.58bn	£8.79bn	£9.04bn	£9.29bn
VAT excluding private school fees	£242.22bn	£249.47bn	£258.67bn	£264.86bn	£270.95bn	£277.04bn	£283.21bn
Change in VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
VAT on private school fees	£1.95bn	£2.01bn	£2.09bn	£2.14bn	£2.20bn	£2.26bn	£2.31bn
Change in private school VAT from its baseline	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Fuel duties	£24.71bn	£24.13bn	£26.00bn	£26.83bn	£26.51bn	£25.78bn	£24.63bn
Alcohol duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tobacco duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Vehicle excise duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Betting and gaming duties	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
TV licence fee	£4.26bn	£4.40bn	£4.41bn	£4.42bn	£4.43bn	£4.44bn	£4.45bn
Council tax	£49.21bn	£52.16bn	£54.89bn	£57.95bn	£61.16bn	£64.47bn	£67.91bn
High value council tax surcharge	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.48bn	£0.49bn	£0.50bn	£0.51bn
Northern Ireland domestic rates	£0.55bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.63bn	£0.66bn	£0.69bn	£0.72bn
Business rates	£34.68bn	£36.20bn	£38.00bn	£39.46bn	£42.27bn	£43.25bn	£44.29bn
Stamp duty land tax on the household's own purchases	£6.88bn	£7.32bn	£7.66bn	£8.06bn	£8.47bn	£8.91bn	£9.35bn
Stamp duty land tax paid by companies	£4.72bn	£4.57bn	£5.29bn	£6.03bn	£6.37bn	£6.92bn	£7.45bn
Land transaction tax (Wales)	£0.07bn	£0.08bn	£0.08bn	£0.09bn	£0.10bn	£0.10bn	£0.11bn
Land and buildings transaction tax (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.38bn	£0.40bn
Unspecified tax change borne by capital	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Unspecified tax change borne by consumers	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Wealth tax excluding the main residence	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Land value tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Carbon tax	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Spending by benefit and service: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
State Pension	£121.68bn	£125.92bn	£126.72bn	£129.48bn	£132.98bn	£136.65bn	£140.41bn
Pension Credit	£6.21bn	£6.46bn	£6.68bn	£6.82bn	£6.89bn	£7.07bn	£7.22bn
Winter Fuel Payment	£1.86bn	£1.85bn	£1.79bn	£1.77bn	£1.78bn	£1.78bn	£1.78bn
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	£0.19bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.21bn	£0.21bn	£0.22bn	£0.22bn
Universal Credit	£75.70bn	£81.81bn	£84.29bn	£86.34bn	£87.51bn	£89.06bn	£89.70bn
Housing Benefit	£8.57bn	£8.52bn	£8.85bn	£9.06bn	£9.29bn	£9.57bn	£9.84bn
Council Tax Reduction	£2.19bn	£2.32bn	£2.44bn	£2.58bn	£2.72bn	£2.87bn	£3.02bn
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	£0.79bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	£5.20bn	£5.37bn	£5.56bn	£5.69bn	£5.82bn	£5.95bn	£6.09bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn
Income Support	£0.11bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Working Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Tax Credit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Incapacity Benefit	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Personal Independence Payment	£26.95bn	£28.03bn	£29.05bn	£30.09bn	£30.75bn	£31.51bn	£32.21bn
Disability Living Allowance	£7.49bn	£7.79bn	£8.07bn	£8.36bn	£8.55bn	£8.76bn	£8.95bn
Attendance Allowance	£8.68bn	£9.03bn	£9.36bn	£9.69bn	£9.90bn	£10.15bn	£10.38bn
Carer's Allowance	£4.48bn	£4.66bn	£4.83bn	£5.00bn	£5.11bn	£5.27bn	£5.42bn
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	£0.31bn	£0.32bn	£0.33bn	£0.34bn	£0.35bn	£0.36bn	£0.37bn
Scottish Carer Supplement	£0.00bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Severe Disablement Allowance	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn	£0.03bn
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	£0.50bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.58bn	£0.59bn
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	£0.61bn	£0.63bn	£0.65bn	£0.66bn	£0.68bn	£0.69bn	£0.71bn
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Child Benefit	£16.19bn	£16.82bn	£17.39bn	£18.00bn	£18.39bn	£18.84bn	£19.25bn
Scottish Child Payment	£0.49bn	£0.52bn	£0.53bn	£0.55bn	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Healthy Start vouchers	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn	£0.05bn
Maternity Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Maternity Pay	£3.30bn	£3.41bn	£3.54bn	£3.62bn	£3.70bn	£3.78bn	£3.87bn
Statutory Paternity Pay	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Statutory Sick Pay	£1.12bn	£1.16bn	£1.20bn	£1.23bn	£1.26bn	£1.29bn	£1.32bn
Sure Start Maternity Grant	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn	£0.01bn
Bereavement Support Payment	£0.67bn	£0.69bn	£0.71bn	£0.73bn	£0.75bn	£0.76bn	£0.78bn
Widowed Parent's Allowance	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Tax-Free Childcare	£0.56bn	£0.57bn	£0.57bn	£0.58bn	£0.60bn	£0.61bn	£0.59bn
Extended childcare entitlement	£2.99bn	£3.50bn	£3.59bn	£3.71bn	£3.78bn	£3.86bn	£3.93bn
Universal childcare entitlement	£2.06bn	£2.22bn	£2.29bn	£2.37bn	£2.43bn	£2.48bn	£2.53bn
Targeted childcare entitlement	£0.50bn	£0.51bn	£0.52bn	£0.54bn	£0.55bn	£0.57bn	£0.56bn
Childcare Offer for Wales	£0.26bn	£0.28bn	£0.28bn	£0.29bn	£0.30bn	£0.31bn	£0.32bn
Care to Learn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Childcare Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Parents' Learning Allowance	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn	£0.20bn
Adult Dependants' Grant	£0.06bn	£0.06bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn	£0.04bn
Travel Grant	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
NHS spending	£203.89bn	£204.30bn	£204.56bn	£204.91bn	£205.34bn	£205.85bn	£206.35bn
State education spending	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn	£0.02bn
Transport subsidy spending	£25.05bn	£25.10bn	£25.14bn	£25.18bn	£25.23bn	£25.30bn	£25.36bn
Cost-of-living support payment	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Bills Rebate	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Household Energy Payment	£0.00bn	£2.11bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Disability basic income	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn
Other public spending budget change	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Caseloads: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Lifetime ISA bonus	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
State Pension	11,264k	11,145k	10,819k	10,700k	10,723k	10,750k	10,776k
Pension Credit	1,489k	1,484k	1,476k	1,454k	1,452k	1,457k	1,466k
Winter Fuel Payment	7,844k	7,783k	7,473k	7,375k	7,391k	7,409k	7,427k
Pension Age Winter Heating Payment (Scotland)	803k	802k	800k	797k	799k	801k	802k
Universal Credit	6,343k	6,419k	6,408k	6,369k	6,364k	6,343k	6,295k
Housing Benefit	1,249k	1,182k	1,181k	1,165k	1,164k	1,166k	1,168k
Council Tax Reduction	3,326k	3,344k	3,351k	3,364k	3,376k	3,388k	3,395k
Employment and Support Allowance (income-related)	71k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Employment and Support Allowance (contribution-based)	719k	720k	721k	722k	724k	726k	728k
Jobseeker's Allowance (income-based)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Jobseeker's Allowance (contribution-based)	67k	67k	67k	67k	67k	68k	68k
Income Support	25k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Working Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Tax Credit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Incapacity Benefit	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Personal Independence Payment	3,567k	3,575k	3,579k	3,585k	3,593k	3,602k	3,611k
Disability Living Allowance	1,291k	1,294k	1,296k	1,298k	1,300k	1,304k	1,307k
Attendance Allowance	1,695k	1,698k	1,700k	1,703k	1,707k	1,711k	1,715k
Carer's Allowance	1,034k	1,037k	1,038k	1,040k	1,042k	1,060k	1,062k
Carer Support Payment (Scotland)	71k	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k
Scottish Carer Supplement	0k	71k	71k	72k	72k	72k	72k
Severe Disablement Allowance	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k	4k
Industrial Injuries Disablement Benefit	137k	137k	137k	138k	138k	138k	139k
Armed Forces Compensation Scheme	93k	93k	94k	94k	94k	94k	94k
War Widow's or Widower's Pension	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Child Benefit	8,123k	8,120k	8,120k	8,130k	8,145k	8,161k	8,178k
Scottish Child Payment	351k	352k	352k	353k	350k	348k	337k
Two Child Limit Payment (Scotland, counterfactual)	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Healthy Start vouchers	200k	200k	200k	201k	201k	201k	202k
Maternity Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Maternity Pay	333k	333k	334k	334k	335k	336k	337k
Statutory Paternity Pay	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Statutory Sick Pay	181k	182k	182k	182k	182k	183k	183k
Sure Start Maternity Grant	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k	26k
Bereavement Support Payment	98k	98k	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k
Widowed Parent's Allowance	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Tax-Free Childcare	1,043k	1,027k	1,014k	1,009k	1,011k	1,009k	993k
Extended childcare entitlement	795k	800k	796k	797k	798k	798k	792k
Universal childcare entitlement	1,071k	1,072k	1,072k	1,073k	1,076k	1,079k	1,074k
Targeted childcare entitlement	165k	156k	154k	154k	155k	155k	150k
Childcare Offer for Wales	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k	39k
Care to Learn	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Childcare Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Parents' Learning Allowance	98k	98k	98k	99k	99k	99k	99k
Adult Dependants' Grant	18k	18k	12k	12k	12k	12k	12k
Travel Grant	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disabled Students' Allowance	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed	suppressed
16 to 19 Bursary Fund	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Cost-of-living support payment	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Bills Rebate	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Household Energy Payment	0k	21,065k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Energy Price Guarantee subsidy	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k
Disability basic income	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k	0k

Government balance, each component counted once: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Government receipts, each component once	£884.84bn	£927.26bn	£972.82bn	£1,008.07bn	£1,046.20bn	£1,083.34bn	£1,116.49bn
Government spending	£529.29bn †	£545.32bn †	£550.39bn †	£559.10bn †	£566.74bn †	£575.46bn †	£583.06bn †
Government balance, each receipt once	£355.55bn †	£381.94bn †	£422.43bn †	£448.97bn †	£479.47bn †	£507.89bn †	£533.43bn †
Benefits in household_benefits but not in gov_spending	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn	£0.00bn

Model totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
gov_tax	£884.84bn	£927.26bn	£972.82bn	£1,008.07bn	£1,046.20bn	£1,083.34bn	£1,116.49bn
household_tax	£491.97bn	£520.41bn	£551.19bn	£575.98bn	£600.98bn	£626.67bn	£648.39bn
pre_budget_change_household_tax	£484.14bn	£512.28bn	£542.80bn	£566.93bn	£591.70bn	£617.14bn	£638.59bn
gov_spending	£529.29bn †	£545.32bn †	£550.39bn †	£559.10bn †	£566.74bn †	£575.46bn †	£583.06bn †
household_benefits	£529.29bn †	£545.32bn †	£550.39bn †	£559.10bn †	£566.74bn †	£575.46bn †	£583.06bn †
gov_balance	£355.55bn †	£381.94bn †	£422.43bn †	£448.97bn †	£479.47bn †	£507.89bn †	£533.43bn †

Household income totals: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Household market income	£1,637.96bn	£1,702.77bn	£1,757.35bn	£1,806.41bn	£1,855.97bn	£1,912.43bn	£1,970.44bn
Household net income	£1,636.60bn †	£1,687.48bn †	£1,715.10bn †	£1,747.11bn †	£1,778.25bn †	£1,816.55bn †	£1,859.17bn †
Household net income (HBAI definition)	£1,449.49bn	£1,499.49bn	£1,530.51bn	£1,564.79bn	£1,597.45bn	£1,635.12bn	£1,676.10bn

Population: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
People	69,245k	69,383k	69,473k	69,592k	69,738k	69,912k	70,080k
Benefit units	35,110k	35,181k	35,226k	35,286k	35,360k	35,449k	35,534k
Households	31,046k	31,108k	31,149k	31,201k	31,267k	31,345k	31,420k

Poverty rates: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.2%	15.4%	16.3%	16.2%	16.4%	16.4%	16.5%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	24.6%	21.9%	23.1%	22.7%	22.9%	23.0%	23.2%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.0%	13.7%	14.6%	14.6%	14.7%	14.7%	14.9%
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	13.7%	13.4%	14.0%	13.9%	14.0%	14.0%	13.9%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.5%	21.0%	22.0%	22.5%	22.8%	23.0%	23.4%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	33.1%	31.2%	32.1%	32.4%	32.8%	33.2%	34.0%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.9%	19.8%	20.8%	21.5%	21.8%	22.0%	22.2%
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.7%	12.4%	13.2%	13.2%	13.3%	13.4%	13.6%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	16.9%	15.9%	16.3%	16.2%	16.3%	16.2%	16.5%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	25.8%	22.6%	23.1%	22.7%	22.8%	22.6%	23.2%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	14.4%	14.0%	14.6%	14.6%	14.7%	14.6%	14.9%
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	14.5%	14.1%	14.0%	13.8%	13.8%	13.9%	13.9%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	21.4%	20.9%	21.2%	21.3%	21.3%	21.5%	21.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	32.9%	31.0%	31.1%	31.0%	31.1%	31.2%	31.7%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	19.8%	19.7%	20.2%	20.4%	20.5%	20.6%	20.8%
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	12.5%	12.4%	12.2%	11.8%	11.7%	11.8%	12.1%

People in poverty: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,251k	10,708k	11,337k	11,302k	11,412k	11,452k	11,588k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: children	3,677k	3,272k	3,456k	3,407k	3,443k	3,465k	3,511k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	5,950k	5,860k	6,279k	6,333k	6,390k	6,402k	6,493k
Absolute poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,624k	1,576k	1,602k	1,562k	1,579k	1,585k	1,584k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,871k	14,567k	15,264k	15,691k	15,911k	16,096k	16,374k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: children	4,941k	4,671k	4,815k	4,873k	4,932k	5,015k	5,146k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,426k	8,436k	8,944k	9,325k	9,475k	9,560k	9,684k
Absolute poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,504k	1,460k	1,505k	1,493k	1,505k	1,520k	1,545k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: everyone	11,698k	11,036k	11,323k	11,301k	11,352k	11,354k	11,588k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: children	3,849k	3,391k	3,456k	3,407k	3,429k	3,416k	3,511k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: working-age adults	6,131k	5,993k	6,272k	6,333k	6,359k	6,362k	6,493k
Relative poverty, before housing costs: pensioners	1,719k	1,652k	1,594k	1,561k	1,565k	1,576k	1,584k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: everyone	14,802k	14,520k	14,761k	14,796k	14,871k	15,007k	15,219k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: children	4,916k	4,649k	4,663k	4,653k	4,675k	4,703k	4,798k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: working-age adults	8,397k	8,415k	8,702k	8,816k	8,873k	8,962k	9,052k
Relative poverty, after housing costs: pensioners	1,488k	1,455k	1,395k	1,326k	1,324k	1,342k	1,369k

Inequality: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Gini coefficient, equivalised HBAI income before housing costs	0.3076	0.3049	0.3055	0.3054	0.3059	0.3064	0.3080

Mean household net income in each side's own deciles: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Decile 1: mean household_net_income per household	£17,748 †	£17,980 †	£17,927 †	£18,181 †	£18,318 †	£18,537 †	£18,742 †
Decile 2: mean household_net_income per household	£28,048 †	£29,038 †	£28,757 †	£28,999 †	£29,261 †	£29,678 †	£30,174 †
Decile 3: mean household_net_income per household	£34,220 †	£35,425 †	£36,066 †	£36,547 †	£37,156 †	£37,773 †	£38,102 †
Decile 4: mean household_net_income per household	£38,925 †	£40,769 †	£41,716 †	£42,763 †	£43,387 †	£44,167 †	£44,499 †
Decile 5: mean household_net_income per household	£43,346 †	£45,603 †	£46,054 †	£47,001 †	£47,756 †	£48,626 †	£50,309 †
Decile 6: mean household_net_income per household	£47,936 †	£49,179 †	£50,883 †	£52,036 †	£52,926 †	£53,947 †	£54,723 †
Decile 7: mean household_net_income per household	£55,669 †	£56,646 †	£57,489 †	£57,670 †	£58,788 †	£59,702 †	£61,102 †
Decile 8: mean household_net_income per household	£68,785 †	£70,807 †	£71,868 †	£73,482 †	£73,889 †	£75,324 †	£77,180 †
Decile 9: mean household_net_income per household	£78,889 †	£81,012 †	£80,860 †	£82,645 †	£85,463 †	£86,945 †	£89,508 †
Decile 10: mean household_net_income per household	£116,861 †	£120,160 †	£124,545 †	£126,419 †	£125,752 †	£128,367 †	£130,693 †

Standard reform costings (change in gov_balance): head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp	£6.41bn	£6.66bn	£6.63bn	£6.85bn	£7.03bn	£7.25bn	£7.47bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp	£3.61bn	£3.87bn	£4.00bn	£4.22bn	£4.44bn	£4.71bn	£4.83bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year	£-3.81bn	£-3.93bn	£-4.01bn	£-4.05bn	£-4.11bn	£-4.24bn	£-1.95bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child	£-1.99bn	£-1.75bn	£-1.55bn	£-1.38bn	£-1.30bn	£-1.18bn	£-1.07bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%	£-20.83bn	£-21.38bn	£-21.81bn	£-22.02bn	£-22.37bn	£-22.77bn	£-22.96bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%	£10.89bn	£11.30bn	£11.71bn	£12.01bn	£12.31bn	£12.62bn	£13.00bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp	£24.17bn	£24.97bn	£25.86bn	£26.46bn	£27.07bn	£27.68bn	£28.31bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp	£2.90bn	£3.15bn	£3.22bn	£3.41bn	£3.61bn	£3.85bn	£4.14bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%	£-3.06bn	£-3.23bn	£-3.30bn	£-3.40bn	£-3.48bn	£-3.53bn	£-3.55bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%	£-7.76bn	£-7.99bn	£-8.22bn	£-8.44bn	£-8.79bn	£-8.52bn	£-8.86bn

Standard reforms: change in each reform's target: head levels

Measure (head)	2025-26	2026-27	2027-28	2028-29	2029-30	2030-31	2031-32
Raise basic rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£6.55bn	£6.86bn	£6.79bn	£7.00bn	£7.20bn	£7.44bn	£7.66bn
Raise higher rate by 1pp: change in income_tax	£3.61bn	£3.92bn	£4.01bn	£4.23bn	£4.45bn	£4.72bn	£4.84bn
Raise personal allowance by ~800GBP/year: change in income_tax	£-3.94bn	£-4.07bn	£-4.14bn	£-4.18bn	£-4.22bn	£-4.40bn	£-1.75bn
Raise child benefit by 25GBP/week per additional child: change in child_benefit	£2.33bn	£2.14bn	£1.94bn	£1.76bn	£1.65bn	£1.52bn	£1.40bn
Reduce Universal Credit taper rate to 20%: change in universal_credit	£20.79bn	£21.36bn	£21.84bn	£22.07bn	£22.39bn	£22.80bn	£23.01bn
Raise Class 1 main employee NICs rate to 10%: change in national_insurance	£11.15bn	£11.63bn	£12.00bn	£12.29bn	£12.61bn	£12.94bn	£13.31bn
Raise VAT standard rate by 2pp: change in vat	£23.98bn	£24.77bn	£25.66bn	£26.24bn	£26.85bn	£27.46bn	£28.07bn
Raise additional rate by 3pp: change in income_tax	£2.90bn	£3.15bn	£3.22bn	£3.42bn	£3.62bn	£3.86bn	£4.12bn
Raise the Universal Credit standard allowance by 10%: change in universal_credit	£3.06bn	£3.22bn	£3.32bn	£3.41bn	£3.48bn	£3.54bn	£3.55bn
Raise the State Pension by 10%: change in state_pension	£10.68bn	£11.17bn	£11.28bn	£11.60bn	£12.03bn	£12.46bn	£12.96bn

[juaristi22]

Approve at c1d55699d962994f54fef4ccb9fb436d11b47e3a. The incremental review is COMPLETE, with the stale 2019 Council Tax Reduction test expectations resolved and no open findings or material evidence gaps.

The new commit updates six expected values for three Scottish households and explains their arithmetic. Formulas, parameters, scenarios, assertions and tolerances are unchanged. The independent source review confirms the £0.49/£3.43 tax effects and the resulting 20% CTR taper, with the existing rounding tolerance retained. All 7 affected tests passed at this head (37.81s pytest; 43.06s bounded invocation), using the locked Core 3.34.9. The prior 128 test passes and six household checks are retained for unchanged behavior, without rerunning them.

The changed RuleSpec #541 packet updates only the commit references; its source values and companion cases are unchanged, and it remains queued rather than executed. The review validated 45 original/extract pairs (42 retained plus the current packet and provided CI evidence). The author's private-data/grid results are not new independently executed results from this review.

All 21 latest exact-head CI contexts passed in the captured results. Head, description, human activity, source guards and applicable required checks are refreshed again before this approval.