Trace how calibration, sampling noise and rent imputation move state child SPM poverty rates

docs/evidence/us-state-child-spm-2026-11/outputs/ablate_eval.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
+run,natE,natP24,natP25,kids_m,E_pool_mean,E_pool_mad,E_pool_corr,P25_cen_mean,P25_cen_mad,P25_cen_corr
+initial,15.0620764477773,15.347836112351281,16.69840528239648,81.55663372127822,2.294313416861093,2.7172208336028407,0.8345687193812189,3.2677686242522026,4.20659998326037,0.6516693967552849
+published,16.502406199878294,15.688595607597467,17.16724469444985,76.68300544760096,3.873603049179267,4.471104228488742,0.6260801264720072,3.236802990802789,4.798497276265718,0.5168815743952836
+R0_full,15.924216152755955,14.704814455699976,16.23279522764708,76.52056952228126,3.0633161234820205,4.109825370479613,0.6425277893022162,2.9267900056344387,4.745426037283913,0.4198348796841481
+drop_aca,15.819391353347935,14.673740041115744,16.085415612047147,76.44401323573673,3.0714952779893503,4.173441445786006,0.6372062028419944,2.9220536239005463,4.765382612452128,0.416337014601458
+drop_all_eitc,15.640155597742124,15.198094676994769,16.653757790242516,76.60667883453945,2.9184664920775187,3.9440949812401334,0.7109395005884531,3.011242446865335,4.7041142573880705,0.5203007598967829
+drop_all_eitc_ctc_actc,16.807711099208102,16.27957445288309,17.696602373929633,75.8444029938321,4.080601067942891,4.882210715454786,0.6564746338328344,4.002986884523601,5.307312538279662,0.5634384235225074
+drop_count_eitc_ctc_actc,17.177829131537628,17.155067594363693,18.61534050715503,75.51925051121415,4.49551381814701,5.083799002588413,0.7051922349704665,4.517674715387939,5.733831583166095,0.5813699422569714
+drop_ctc_actc,17.170016072538555,16.242738522044416,17.907245178988113,75.85885132219627,4.382254465725262,5.082199829303582,0.6569744263900658,3.9907866009101074,5.425148558499853,0.463203684084818
+drop_ctc_actc_tax,18.529463913939285,18.705390907285494,20.570601045111935,75.29251403965378,5.7598948663653795,6.302480445805714,0.6142497020019401,6.552014880086792,7.523692688382396,0.3893914243839443
+drop_ctc_actc_tax_count,19.03953354209649,18.052827033879755,19.894330225880093,74.6057490358358,6.220892383741369,6.571052869438273,0.6368507516576651,5.910407139607957,6.71452477395443,0.42247030045123235
+drop_medicaid_chip,14.818036603669615,13.551341341064159,15.122046912442737,76.42841935939808,2.427989314820742,3.7532443315511657,0.6333224001106237,1.7203229030140548,4.258358783502336,0.48474589159172465
+drop_other_bea,16.188146298313413,14.885979833356634,16.47918135490516,76.63368180035285,3.2192765271898462,4.333819740845506,0.6349581772681222,2.8042172229569124,4.691243680345419,0.439921491171793
+drop_other_cbo,15.921148405554028,14.623925723097013,16.14222955630875,76.52146761837056,3.0438908815997805,4.124890493862227,0.6512731026404498,2.7382590142606134,4.565639260357853,0.44332973096387873
+drop_other_federal_reserve,16.09688181418814,14.90268128012894,16.380208442962413,76.34676628581386,3.2745124199878735,4.417142381127857,0.6416483400218373,3.0386587942791174,4.967938225170937,0.41727594334950624
+drop_other_hhs_acf_tanf,15.499988254026238,14.594439176651974,16.15968731609002,76.42953327316228,2.950886805947737,4.214893981740142,0.6447973257290592,2.877830930873818,4.572964026827521,0.4617746266731397
+drop_other_ssa,15.71126345925938,15.222783663476708,16.65333001622099,76.55100045818601,3.0212928909833447,3.946281101463029,0.6594245762883867,3.200995082941771,4.742612508615553,0.49169980691961074
+drop_other_state_income_tax,15.893660823796443,14.680154985429892,16.187284770656365,76.3614417783142,2.9974010742098955,4.0889326397603964,0.645884535157083,2.6882748176579896,4.5355469078906925,0.4678734217364748
+drop_pep_national,15.86007421276696,14.680261927861709,16.22336865168751,76.41270327297524,3.0392371625504975,4.150762393982498,0.6469762182137764,2.8308599732609254,4.707112076466498,0.426603480565126
+drop_pep_state,15.642770302476197,14.33868073829011,15.975257179454793,78.44203836858914,2.93017623516216,4.039109583489123,0.6531074932498372,2.587890085229834,4.7569928817182054,0.4316601670684967
+drop_snap,14.284282328942155,14.270290568527688,15.560413728830587,76.51622406752014,1.8197228323606962,3.8754884924983517,0.5929728538095529,1.5147524389015008,4.275596842891081,0.42947906659310975
+drop_soi_actc,16.004589225539423,15.035982553121494,16.627451021057198,76.63714544034485,3.2970105191876025,4.199284702498356,0.6251246563095062,3.0157512069679555,4.857511139341075,0.41883371904955163
+drop_soi_ctc,17.23715973458685,16.139961710380025,17.786977672610764,75.73705060760066,4.212626734126116,5.053877353182301,0.6313427857643636,3.894913963865974,5.642091808254783,0.4765545533796267
+drop_soi_eitc_other,15.69904589734109,14.773627420249326,16.276363664004172,76.46486458759222,2.9503807549082057,4.039142613369825,0.642423726415993,2.9487784575176965,4.739276351700349,0.4380712896549166
+drop_soi_eitc_state,16.109612739318717,15.005833946559324,16.48094700475888,76.75949759996668,3.1592938923267537,4.1013018113270645,0.6503739778489152,2.9128814552168145,4.943259386742928,0.4669513169561062
+drop_soi_eitc_t25_by_agi_children,15.867480510506402,14.612310320334224,16.083778404824017,76.50244072169298,3.2298911510838986,4.113968646490979,0.6430425490105994,2.793967155955605,4.645056719356822,0.4119848798597359
+drop_soi_eitc_t25_child_totals,15.930475714264789,14.569049086016472,16.111231754058334,76.53564355937986,3.0476929209602743,4.115494022306632,0.647548914791618,2.828246258997465,4.594815916635461,0.43803339938249347
+drop_soi_other,15.211282473002896,14.866952603193036,16.21412649234447,76.79276086556541,2.0877257174631314,2.5593752038499398,0.8332293652846579,2.78486251567881,3.957965562801621,0.5892755603548562
+drop_soi_return_count,15.00683145682903,13.44668814671616,14.83685581975737,76.30024441618669,2.3057997774636365,3.8584955621517723,0.6252345695053271,1.3009820467069653,4.102252400694822,0.4632716974272967
+drop_ssi,16.031294654824528,14.928777132328895,16.47453508837923,76.49200459262731,3.262615490695995,4.295763163514418,0.63692668522365,2.6952109294690354,4.647031131432378,0.44036756840507835
+keep_pep,15.0134605731427,15.154037793131236,16.43003933728045,74.7496636712652,1.6579069707966614,2.411528334988822,0.8077165576187653,2.429144875008616,3.8451131210061806,0.602967968047262
+keep_pep_actc_only,15.228731686822924,15.404585649600376,16.752878453799408,74.7315159836609,1.6635870526915837,2.391729229316454,0.8317214733747696,2.430723254554038,3.8270008751950617,0.6424487483013556
+keep_pep_all_soi,13.690419510391843,13.198058258009734,14.41033928870889,76.37016508792573,1.1966023975597802,3.5014378813551166,0.592942236630598,0.7112748225507065,3.162939580606731,0.5334607466751029
+keep_pep_count,14.515213971325505,15.013800962474226,16.289462462444778,75.05568592311994,1.193102775352841,2.298111789736409,0.7893232911858047,2.240630690404167,3.713732467440932,0.6048803899414609
+keep_pep_ctc_actc,11.905086596952493,11.525764574321279,12.75182788209374,75.8440843051013,-1.0451774138054,1.8836105305161248,0.8309653961730378,-0.8307829700021379,2.6596087091378173,0.6343252289934157
+keep_pep_ctc_actc_count,12.575739935654726,12.70141067060658,14.012349886856912,76.10815725306925,-0.36459802484301074,1.7858784441285445,0.8416500341498842,0.3118807034963335,2.5909158026810246,0.676651914114917
+keep_pep_ctc_only,11.884379965290641,11.543098530169875,12.571272102511449,75.09360819604093,-0.9452911898606429,1.812386453412346,0.8427442135068935,-0.8199103975508037,2.5999751358997,0.6454207524274004
+keep_pep_eitc,17.152152972969297,17.03439871034984,18.549827698376433,74.73671465552262,3.4742679893472763,3.8020307452664674,0.7814562466324008,3.950951784498883,4.782677332458221,0.5986892015235319
+keep_pep_medicaid,18.648738965229363,18.875526326089354,20.647601738222004,74.82051381666378,4.838032304826807,5.093836534484346,0.7271288351668718,5.948600451653428,6.824546787034102,0.5222223757254406
+keep_pep_snap_ssi_aca,19.06134826825314,19.26109939525907,20.971373600706904,74.9402109722991,5.673305937443629,5.6966136493988255,0.8188546694247184,6.846498727583604,7.203689461609362,0.6403021540401134
+keep_pep_soi_adjusted_gross_income,15.448292427331692,15.143629605652437,16.540073922727142,75.08273287370386,2.3681812308680166,2.9625864450111954,0.7913090103220951,2.8982575139009765,4.197457868273756,0.5812038692148748
+keep_pep_soi_employment_income,15.598096975298862,15.528540004745144,16.87841534777281,74.753434137952,2.5003666437878955,3.0810530475444637,0.7922872367991433,3.1548148764457067,4.361146936457874,0.5995536315521629
+keep_pep_soi_income_tax,16.78183225519556,17.04162213745876,18.52635483130624,74.96386271728768,3.226338530488393,3.484902874769228,0.8363603074485367,4.190380609637151,4.955214365329211,0.6545067001046092
+keep_pep_soi_income_tax_before_credits,17.123675600869888,17.31806448551758,18.725773870115347,74.77703743693942,3.684650431052845,3.8355153333710836,0.8497958590697229,4.586866126847752,5.191949249645728,0.6686844509016306
+keep_pep_soi_other,11.689545317325567,11.261265612629936,11.924069415444977,75.73759565846335,-0.8864344897750683,4.485176046203521,0.5858665133453148,-1.4589312036321995,3.99044164337063,0.5947433017600242
+keep_pep_soi_tax_all,6.871553606992856,6.204462942650036,6.69488529605842,76.59728075542536,-4.919604910623718,5.031743760400607,0.778849926449078,-5.487015592252383,5.557878231089069,0.601968160814887
+keep_pep_soi_taxable_income,17.348751678800678,17.48837278677986,18.90046305293727,74.75879880618004,4.132129194618196,4.320056093913739,0.8316357598220409,5.052742961332301,5.5456762231608545,0.6587662248868175
+keep_pep_soi_taxable_interest_income,15.897400458045217,16.21751335886641,17.572620547896193,74.893925258176,2.6260160746547574,3.1091586653139096,0.7986826714967612,3.433506291891224,4.659369272029208,0.6011202667561169
+keep_pep_soi_taxable_pension_income,14.977418636852358,15.360692082513408,16.673869602241197,74.79136799284176,1.574686355540493,2.3978747058952803,0.8040220033652759,2.615498905251759,3.9774897429281824,0.6029590800414021
+keep_pep_soi_taxable_social_security,14.910381128778518,15.523195493189414,16.83200443366213,74.82725785925692,1.5187597544586982,2.3784300753632936,0.8014649307528147,2.7095348249087663,4.020027887160448,0.6095429957884052