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UK spine: the early flat UC draw moves working-age Housing Benefit reporters onto UC #1352

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Description

@juaristi22

Follow-up to item 7 of Vahid's second review of #1344.

Problem

DWP figures

Working-age Housing Benefit claims in Great Britain (DWP benefit statistics, August 2025 and February 2026 releases):

  • May 2025: 660,775
  • November 2025: 370,372

The caseload falls fast through 2025 as DWP moves HB-only cases to UC. The build's 2025 basis is a period average, so these two points bracket it.

What to compare

  • The model figure to compare is every working-age benefit unit with engine housing_benefit above zero in 2025, over Great Britain, at calibration weights.
  • The working_age_housing_benefit block in uc_take_up's receipt is not that figure. Its reporting_units leaves out the units the engine moves at the legacy closure, and it is at the stage's weights.

Options

  1. In frs_take_up and spi_benefit_coherence, leave would_claim_uc false for a unit that reports a legacy benefit the engine does not move, unless the unit also reports UC. This is the rule uc_take_up now applies. The legacy closure stage then decides who moves.
  2. Draw those units onto UC at a published natural-migration rate (moves after a change of circumstances), not at the flat rate.

Done when

  • The model's working-age HB caseload in 2025 is compared with DWP's figures on a like-for-like basis, as a receipt line.
  • The receipt line shows weighted figures only where ten or more source households carry them.
  • The gap is closed, or its cause is written down.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

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