Add HMRC's 2026 ISA, Lifetime ISA and impact-note facts (PolicyEngine/microcosm#1415)

changelog.d/hmrc-isa-statistics-2026.added.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Add HMRC's annual savings statistics for September 2026 for PolicyEngine/microcosm#1415: the ISA tables' accounts and amounts subscribed by component from 2008-09 to 2024-25 (Table 9.4), market values by type of investment from 2011-12 to 2024-25 (Table 9.6), and the 2023-24 counts of individuals subscribing and holding by income, age, sex, region, subscription band and market value (Tables 9.7 to 9.12); the Lifetime ISA tables' yearly withdrawals for house purchases and unauthorised withdrawals (Table 1a); and the cash ISA limit impact note's shares of under-65 cash ISA subscribers either side of GBP 12,000 in 2022-23. Tables 9.7 to 9.12 head their columns '(thousands)' but count individuals, so their values are stored unscaled.

chronicle/bundle.py

@@ -138,6 +138,7 @@
     "gambling-commission-industry-statistics-fy2025-26",
     "hmrc-alcohol-bulletin-july-2026",
     "hmrc-betting-gaming-statistics-july-2026",
+    "hmrc-cash-isa-limit-reduction-2026",
     "hmrc-cgt-age-2026",
     "hmrc-cgt-asset-type-2026",
     "hmrc-cgt-badr-ir-2026",
@@ -150,6 +151,8 @@
     "hmrc-child-benefit-august-2025",
     "hmrc-hydrocarbon-oils-quantities-june-2026",
     "hmrc-income-tax-liabilities-july-2026",
+    "hmrc-isa-statistics-2026",
+    "hmrc-lisa-statistics-2026",
     "hmrc-pension-contribution-relief-2023-24",
     "hmrc-property-rental-income-2026",
     "hmrc-salary-sacrifice-reform-2029-headcounts",

chronicle/source_package.py

@@ -598,6 +598,11 @@
     "hmrc-cgt-residential-property-2026": Path("hmrc/cgt_residential_property_2026"),
     "hmrc-cgt-size-of-gain-2026": Path("hmrc/cgt_size_of_gain_2026"),
     "hmrc-cgt-statistics-2026": Path("hmrc/cgt_statistics_2026"),
+    # PolicyEngine/microcosm#1415
+    "hmrc-cash-isa-limit-reduction-2026": Path("hmrc/cash_isa_limit_reduction_2026"),
+    "hmrc-isa-statistics-2026": Path("hmrc/isa_statistics_2026"),
+    "hmrc-lisa-statistics-2026": Path("hmrc/lisa_statistics_2026"),
+    # end PolicyEngine/microcosm#1415
     "hmrc-spi-income-by-area-2023-24": Path("hmrc/spi_income_by_area_2023_24"),
     "hmrc-salary-sacrifice-relief-2024-25": Path(
         "hmrc/salary_sacrifice_relief_2024_25"

db/data/hmrc/cash_isa_limit_reduction_2026/manifest.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+source_id: hmrc
+package_id: hmrc-cash-isa-limit-reduction-2026
+dataset: hmrc_hmrc-cash-isa-limit-reduction-2026
+source_page: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/reduction-in-the-cash-individual-savings-account-isa-limit
+table: 'Cash Individual Savings Account (ISA) limit reduction: tax information and
+  impact note'
+license: Open Government Licence v3.0
+license_url: https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
+attribution: 'Source: HM Revenue and Customs, Cash Individual Savings Account (ISA) limit reduction: tax information and impact note (17 September 2026). Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.'
+license_evidence: 'The page (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/reduction-in-the-cash-individual-savings-account-isa-limit/cash-individual-savings-account-isa-limit-reduction) states that the publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated.'
+license_verified_at: '2026-10-28'
+files:
+  2026:
+    filename: cash-individual-savings-account-isa-limit-reduction.html
+    source_url: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/reduction-in-the-cash-individual-savings-account-isa-limit/cash-individual-savings-account-isa-limit-reduction
+    sha256: 3a27fd6017afd85a1167e3acb3687d6312ea32c07f1101535f888279bd2c6212
+    size_bytes: 103157
+    fetched_at: '2026-10-28T19:45:11+00:00'
+    storage:
+      r2:
+        provider: r2
+        bucket: ledger-raw
+        key: raw/uk/hmrc/hmrc-cash-isa-limit-reduction-2026/2026/3a27fd6017afd85a1167e3acb3687d6312ea32c07f1101535f888279bd2c6212/cash-individual-savings-account-isa-limit-reduction.html
+        uri: r2://ledger-raw/raw/uk/hmrc/hmrc-cash-isa-limit-reduction-2026/2026/3a27fd6017afd85a1167e3acb3687d6312ea32c07f1101535f888279bd2c6212/cash-individual-savings-account-isa-limit-reduction.html

db/data/hmrc/isa_statistics_2026/manifest.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+source_id: hmrc
+package_id: hmrc-isa-statistics-2026
+dataset: hmrc_hmrc-isa-statistics-2026
+source_page: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-savings-statistics-2026
+table: 'Individual Savings Account (ISA) tables: September 2026'
+license: Open Government Licence v3.0
+license_url: https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
+attribution: 'Source: HM Revenue and Customs, Individual Savings Account (ISA) tables: September 2026. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.'
+license_evidence: 'The GOV.UK publication page (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-savings-statistics-2026) states that all content is available under the Open Government Licence v3.0, except where otherwise stated. The workbook''s cover (Cover_Sheet!A17) adds: ''Bulletin is Crown copyright. Information may be used provided that the source is acknowledged.'''
+license_verified_at: '2026-10-28'
+files:
+  2026:
+    filename: Individual_Savings_Account_Tables_2026.ods
+    source_url: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6aa26b174e17456e2cdf529c/Individual_Savings_Account_Tables_2026.ods
+    sha256: a0eaf90801fadc293c1187e8bcd66983b37a0fe81028d9a04b3e6dd71bd10e3b
+    size_bytes: 60311
+    fetched_at: '2026-10-28T19:36:51+00:00'
+    storage:
+      r2:
+        provider: r2
+        bucket: ledger-raw
+        key: raw/uk/hmrc/hmrc-isa-statistics-2026/2026/a0eaf90801fadc293c1187e8bcd66983b37a0fe81028d9a04b3e6dd71bd10e3b/Individual_Savings_Account_Tables_2026.ods
+        uri: r2://ledger-raw/raw/uk/hmrc/hmrc-isa-statistics-2026/2026/a0eaf90801fadc293c1187e8bcd66983b37a0fe81028d9a04b3e6dd71bd10e3b/Individual_Savings_Account_Tables_2026.ods

db/data/hmrc/lisa_statistics_2026/manifest.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+source_id: hmrc
+package_id: hmrc-lisa-statistics-2026
+dataset: hmrc_hmrc-lisa-statistics-2026
+source_page: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-savings-statistics-2026
+table: 'Lifetime Individual Savings Account (LISA) tables: September 2026'
+license: Open Government Licence v3.0
+license_url: https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
+attribution: 'Source: HM Revenue and Customs, Lifetime Individual Savings Account (LISA) tables: September 2026. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0.'
+license_evidence: 'The GOV.UK publication page (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-savings-statistics-2026) states that all content is available under the Open Government Licence v3.0, except where otherwise stated. The workbook''s cover (Cover_sheet!A15) adds: ''Bulletin is Crown copyright. Information may be used provided that the source is acknowledged.'''
+license_verified_at: '2026-10-28'
+files:
+  2026:
+    filename: Lifetime_ISA_Tables_2026.ods
+    source_url: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6aa25fa64e17456e2cdf5291/Lifetime_ISA_Tables_2026.ods
+    sha256: bba1520b58072a71ad90fd32992a3226ba3b54e806dc9330b132bb7136502231
+    size_bytes: 17089
+    fetched_at: '2026-10-28T19:36:55+00:00'
+    storage:
+      r2:
+        provider: r2
+        bucket: ledger-raw
+        key: raw/uk/hmrc/hmrc-lisa-statistics-2026/2026/bba1520b58072a71ad90fd32992a3226ba3b54e806dc9330b132bb7136502231/Lifetime_ISA_Tables_2026.ods
+        uri: r2://ledger-raw/raw/uk/hmrc/hmrc-lisa-statistics-2026/2026/bba1520b58072a71ad90fd32992a3226ba3b54e806dc9330b132bb7136502231/Lifetime_ISA_Tables_2026.ods

docs/data-sources/uk-hmrc-annual-savings-statistics-2026.md

@@ -0,0 +1,189 @@
+# HMRC annual savings statistics 2026 for PolicyEngine/microcosm#1415
+
+[PolicyEngine/microcosm#1415](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/1415)
+imputes yearly ISA subscriptions per adult by type, so that ISA-limit reforms and the
+Lifetime ISA bonus stop scoring zero on Microcosm. These packages give it HMRC's published
+ISA statistics and the one published fact that crosses age with amount. Everything here is
+a published aggregate; no microdata is involved.
+`packages/hmrc/isa_statistics_2026/build_package.py` regenerates all three packages from the
+pinned bytes (`--check` compares instead of writing).
+
+## Sources
+
+All three were published by HMRC on GOV.UK under the Open Government Licence v3.0, and all
+are committed and stored in R2.
+
+| Package | File | Bytes | sha256 |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| `hmrc-isa-statistics-2026` | `Individual_Savings_Account_Tables_2026.ods` ("Individual Savings Account (ISA) tables: September 2026", published 16 September 2026) | 60,311 | `a0eaf908…10e3b` |
+| `hmrc-lisa-statistics-2026` | `Lifetime_ISA_Tables_2026.ods` ("Lifetime Individual Savings Account (LISA) tables: September 2026") | 17,089 | `bba1520b…02231` |
+| `hmrc-cash-isa-limit-reduction-2026` | the HTML of "Cash Individual Savings Account (ISA) limit reduction: tax information and impact note" (17 September 2026) | 103,157 | `3a27fd60…c6212` |
+
+The two workbooks are on the
+[release page](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-savings-statistics-2026),
+which also has the commentary and the methodology note. Budget 2026 (28 October 2026)
+announced that the GBP 12,000 cash limit the impact note describes will not go ahead, so the
+page may change; the package pins the bytes fetched on 28 October 2026.
+
+## `hmrc-isa-statistics-2026`: 3,230 facts
+
+Record-set ids start `hmrc.isa_statistics_2026.`.
+
+**What it carries, by table:**
+- **Table 9.4** (`table9_4.accounts.ty<year>`, `table9_4.amounts.ty<year>`, tax years 2008
+  to 2024).
+  - What it counts: Adult ISA accounts subscribed to in the year (`hmrc.isa_accounts_subscribed`, thousands)
+    and amounts subscribed (`hmrc.isa_amount_subscribed`, GBP million).
+  - `isa_component` values: `cash`, `stocks_and_shares`, `innovative_finance`, `lifetime`,
+    `stocks_and_shares_insurance` and `all`.
+  - Administrative totals from ISA managers' returns. They count accounts, not individuals
+    (methodology section 5.1), so their role is `isa_account`, not the `isa_subscriber` of
+    Tables 9.7 to 9.9.
+  - Products that did not exist in a year carry no fact for it. Innovative Finance ISAs start
+    in 2016-17 and Lifetime ISAs in 2017-18.
+  - HMRC marks 2024-25 as provisional.
+- **Table 9.6** (`table9_6.ty<year>`, 2011 to 2024).
+  - What it counts: the market value of Adult ISA funds (`hmrc.isa_market_value`, GBP million) at the end
+    of each tax year.
+  - Dimensions: `isa_component` and `isa_asset_type`. The stocks-and-shares component's
+    lines include `cash_on_deposit`.
+  - HMRC's note says Lifetime ISA market values are inside the cash and stocks-and-shares
+    totals.
+- **Table 9.7** (`table9_7.ty2023.<type>.subscribers` and `.holders`).
+  - What it counts: individuals subscribing (`hmrc.isa_subscribers`) in 2023-24, and ISA
+    holders who made no further subscription in it (`hmrc.isa_holders`).
+  - Rows are 11 `isa_income_band`s plus all ranges, with `total_income` bounds.
+  - Columns are 11 `isa_subscription_band`s plus all subscriptions. The bands have an edge
+    at GBP 12,000 and an exact GBP 20,000 band.
+  - For holders, the no-further-subscription column. The all-holders column restates
+    Table 9.10's totals, so it is ported from Table 9.10.
+  - It is split into four `isa_type` blocks: `all`, `cash_only`, `stocks_and_shares_only`
+    and `cash_and_stocks_and_shares`. In the `all` and `cash_and_stocks_and_shares` blocks,
+    the band is the combined amount subscribed.
+- **Table 9.8** (`table9_8.ty2023.<sex>.subscribers` and `.holders`): the same counts by 21
+  `age_band`s and sex, with types as columns. The all-sexes, all-ages row restates Table
+  9.7's totals and is ported from Table 9.7.
+- **Table 9.9** (`table9_9.ty2023.subscribers` and `.holders`): the same counts by English
+  region and country. HMRC's overseas and unknown row is the statistical scope
+  `hmrc:overseas_and_unknown`. The United Kingdom row restates Table 9.7's totals and is
+  ported from Table 9.7.
+- **Tables 9.10, 9.11 and 9.12**: individuals holding ISAs at the end of 2023-24.
+  - Breakdowns: by income and type (9.10), by age and sex (9.11), and by region (9.12).
+  - Columns are 12 `isa_market_value_band`s, with each breakdown's total and HMRC's average
+    market value per holder (`hmrc.isa_mean_market_value_per_holder`).
+  - Table 9.11's all-sexes, all-ages row and Table 9.12's United Kingdom row restate Table
+    9.10's all-types "All ranges" row and are ported from Table 9.10.
+  - Table 9.12's share of adults aged 18 or over (`hmrc.isa_holders_share_of_adults`) is
+    its own `model_output` record set, since it rests on ONS population estimates. It
+    carries an `age >= 18` constraint, HMRC's denominator. HMRC does not say whether
+    holders aged 16 or 17 are in the numerator.
+
+**Provenance.**
+- Tables 9.4 and 9.6 are `administrative`.
+- Tables 9.7 to 9.12 are `survey_aggregate`. HMRC estimates them from a sample of
+  individuals' accounts matched to the Survey of Personal Incomes, calibrated to the
+  totals in Tables 9.4 and 9.6. Income, age, sex and region come from the Survey of
+  Personal Incomes.
+
+**Caveats.** The first three are in the facts' notes. The next two come from arithmetic
+on the published cells, not from HMRC's text, so they are on this page only.
+- **People under "(thousands)" headings.** The column headings of Tables 9.7 to 9.12 say
+  "(thousands)", but the cells count individuals. Only that reading fits HMRC's
+  commentary, which gives 15 million Adult ISA accounts subscribed to (section 1.1) and 23
+  million holders (section 1.4) in 2023-24. It gives no count of subscribers. So those
+  measures carry `value_scale: 1`, and the heading text stays as each measure's header
+  guard.
+- **Coverage.** Tables 9.7 to 9.12 exclude Innovative Finance ISA holders. Their notes do
+  not say how Lifetime ISAs are classed. Help to Buy ISAs are inside cash subscriptions
+  and market values, without being separated out (HMRC's background and methodology note,
+  section 3.4).
+- **Totals in more than one table.** HMRC prints some subscriber and holder totals in more
+  than one of Tables 9.7 to 9.12. Each is ported once, as chronicle#391 did for GSGB's
+  restated row, and `build_package.py` asserts every copy equal to the cell it keeps:
+  - Tables 9.7 to 9.9's "All ISA Holders" columns restate Tables 9.10 to 9.12's "Total"
+    columns row for row, so holder totals come from the holder tables;
+  - the all-sexes, all-ages rows of Tables 9.8 and 9.11 and the United Kingdom rows of
+    Tables 9.9 and 9.12 restate the "All ranges" rows of Tables 9.7 and 9.10.
+
+  That leaves out 167 copies, and the package has no semantic duplicate key.
+- **Table 9.7's bands against Table 9.4's amounts.** Table 9.7 has no amounts, and its
+  bands cannot be reconciled with Table 9.4's amounts subscribed, so a consumer cannot
+  bind both. Each subscriber subscribed at least their band's floor (GBP 1, 2,001, …,
+  18,001 or 20,000). At those floors, the 13,054,561 subscribers of the `all` block put in
+  at least GBP 114.3bn in 2023-24, and the cash-only block alone GBP 78.1bn. Table 9.4 has
+  GBP 69,498m in cash ISAs and GBP 31,070m in stocks and shares ISAs (GBP 100.6bn, or
+  GBP 103.0bn with Innovative Finance and Lifetime ISAs).
+- **Lifetime ISAs in Tables 9.7 to 9.9.** HMRC does not say how they are classed, but the
+  2023-24 cells answer most of it:
+  - cash-only plus both types, 8,963,286 + 975,669 = 9,938,955, matches Table 9.4's 9,939
+    thousand cash ISA accounts;
+  - stocks-and-shares-only plus both, 3,115,606 + 975,669 = 4,091,275, matches its 4,091
+    thousand stocks and shares ISA accounts;
+  - the three type blocks sum exactly to the 13,054,561 subscribers.
+
+  The methodology (section 5.2) says Tables 9.7 to 9.9 are calibrated to the totals in
+  Tables 9.4 and 9.6, treating cash and stocks and shares separately. Table 9.4 counts
+  Lifetime ISAs (964 thousand accounts in 2023-24) in a row of their own. So someone who
+  paid only into a Lifetime ISA is not among Table 9.7's subscribers. HMRC does not say
+  whether a Lifetime ISA subscription counts towards a subscriber's band.
+- **Not ported:**
+  - Table 9.4's average subscription per account, a quotient of ported cells;
+  - the Junior ISA rows of Tables 9.4 and 9.6.
+
+## `hmrc-lisa-statistics-2026`: 40 facts
+
+Table 1a's yearly Lifetime ISA withdrawals, 2018-19 to 2025-26
+(`hmrc.lisa_statistics_2026.table1a.ty<year>`):
+- individuals withdrawing for a house purchase, and the value withdrawn;
+- individuals making unauthorised withdrawals, and the value withdrawn;
+- the withdrawal charges.
+
+The concepts are `hmrc.lisa_withdrawers`, `hmrc.lisa_withdrawal_value` and
+`hmrc.lisa_withdrawal_charges`, by `lisa_withdrawal_reason`. HMRC rounds the numbers of
+individuals to the nearest 50. The 2025-26 house-purchase count is 99,750.
+
+The workbook has no subscriptions, holdings or bonus. Lifetime ISA accounts and amounts
+subscribed are Table 9.4's `lifetime` rows, and the government's bonus is published in
+neither file. Not ported: Table 1b, the same flows by month, and Table 1a's two average
+columns.
+
+## `hmrc-cash-isa-limit-reduction-2026`: 2 facts
+
+One sentence of the impact note: "In 2022 to 2023, 78% of cash ISA subscribers aged under
+65 subscribed less than £12,000 to a cash ISA and 22% subscribed over £12,000."
+
+- **Record set:** `hmrc.cash_isa_limit_reduction_2026.cash_subscribers_under_65.ty2022`,
+  concept `hmrc.cash_isa_subscribers_share` (unit `percent`, aggregation `share`), by
+  `cash_isa_subscription_band`.
+- **Provenance:** the note names no data source, so the shares are `model_output`.
+- **What the sentence leaves open:** where a subscription of exactly GBP 12,000 falls, and
+  whether someone who also paid into a stocks-and-shares ISA is counted on the cash amount
+  alone. So each row carries its `cash_isa_subscription_band` alone, with no amount bound.
+  Bounds of `<` and `>` GBP 12,000 would leave exactly GBP 12,000 in neither row, though
+  the shares sum to 100.
+- **Not ported:** the page's other "22%", the flat-rate charge on interest on cash held in
+  non-cash ISAs, because it is a rate, not this share.
+
+## For Microcosm
+
+Re-pin the UK feed to the merge commit first; the vendor tool refuses a feed that does not
+match the pin. Then select:
+- **Subscriber cells:** record sets `hmrc.isa_statistics_2026.table9_7.ty2023.*`,
+  `table9_8.ty2023.*` and `table9_9.ty2023.*`. The national totals are Table 9.7's "All
+  ranges" rows; Tables 9.8 and 9.9 carry no all-sexes, all-ages or United Kingdom row.
+- **Growth and composition:** `table9_4.{accounts,amounts}.ty2023` and `.ty2024`, role
+  `isa_account`. From 6 April 2024, the Individual Savings Account (Amendment) Regulations
+  2024 (SI 2024/350) let a saver subscribe to more than one ISA of the same type in a tax
+  year. Table 9.4 counts accounts, so its 2024-25 accounts (provisional: 10,713 thousand
+  cash and 4,893 thousand stocks and shares) are no longer a proxy for people, and their
+  growth from 2023-24 is not growth in subscribers. In 2023-24 the two still match Table
+  9.7's people (see the Lifetime ISA caveat above).
+- **Independent checks:** holders and market values from `table9_6.ty2024` and
+  `table9_10` to `table9_12`, which carry every holder total, the impact note's record
+  set, and Lifetime ISA Table 1a.
+
+Bounds are first-class constraints, so a consumer reads band edges from them rather than
+from value ids. Values are already people or pounds, so nothing should be multiplied by
+1,000. Aligning the 2023-24 cells with a build year, and choosing between Table 9.7's bands
+and Table 9.4's amounts (which cannot both bind; see the caveats), are the consumer's
+decisions.