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feat(calibration): reliability curves beside the ladder — knobs status + advisor surfacing#8262

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feat/reliability-curves-surfacing
Jul 23, 2026
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feat(calibration): reliability curves beside the ladder — knobs status + advisor surfacing#8262
JSONbored merged 1 commit into
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feat/reliability-curves-surfacing

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What

Epic #8211 track E capstone (#8227), over the contributor-delivered curve math (#8226): every live knob's status carries its rule's claimed-confidence reliability curve over the trailing corpus plus the floor DERIVED from it at the documented 0.9 precision bar (respecting the knob's own hard minimum), and the advisor shows the derived suggestion next to the ladder proposal whenever they differ.

Surfacing-only by design: the bounded candidate ladder still owns movement; the ladder-replacement question is this issue's recorded soak decision, and a persistent curve-vs-ladder gap on real corpora — now visible where operators look — IS that soak evidence. Fail-safe: an empty corpus or read blip degrades to null, never a fabricated curve.

Validation

Full npm run test:ci on the pre-rebase branch: zero failures in any touched area; the run's single red (local-scorer-adapter, unrelated guidance-text drift) was already fixed on main and passes on the rebased content (29/29 re-verified). Touched-module suites 40/40 green post-rebase with the status type converged across #8216's repoOverrides, #8213's drift, and this PR's reliability fields. 100% line+branch on the new surfaces.

Closes #8227

…s + advisor surfacing (#8227)

Epic #8211 track E capstone over the contributor-delivered curve math
(#8226): every live knob's status now carries its rule's
claimed-confidence reliability curve over the trailing corpus plus the
floor DERIVED from it at the documented 0.9 precision bar (respecting the
knob's own hard minimum), and the advisor shows the derived suggestion
next to the ladder proposal whenever they differ. Surfacing-only by
design: the bounded candidate ladder still owns movement, and the
ladder-replacement question is the issue's recorded soak decision — a
persistent curve-vs-ladder gap on real corpora IS that soak evidence,
now visible where operators look. Fail-safe: an empty corpus or a read
blip degrades the block to null, never a fabricated curve.

Closes #8227
@JSONbored JSONbored self-assigned this Jul 23, 2026
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Superagent didn't find any vulnerabilities or security issues in this PR.

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Bundle Report

Changes will increase total bundle size by 1.48kB (0.02%) ⬆️. This is within the configured threshold ✅

Detailed changes
Bundle name Size Change
loopover-ui 7.44MB 1.48kB (0.02%) ⬆️

Affected Assets, Files, and Routes:

view changes for bundle: loopover-ui

Assets Changed:

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@JSONbored
JSONbored merged commit c571afd into main Jul 23, 2026
13 checks passed
@JSONbored
JSONbored deleted the feat/reliability-curves-surfacing branch July 23, 2026 16:18
@codecov

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Codecov Report

✅ All modified and coverable lines are covered by tests.
✅ Project coverage is 91.62%. Comparing base (78aeb1c) to head (557ac15).
⚠️ Report is 1 commits behind head on main.
✅ All tests successful. No failed tests found.

Additional details and impacted files
@@            Coverage Diff             @@
##             main    #8262      +/-   ##
==========================================
- Coverage   92.14%   91.62%   -0.53%     
==========================================
  Files         785      785              
  Lines       78764    78780      +16     
  Branches    23771    23773       +2     
==========================================
- Hits        72580    72181     -399     
- Misses       5062     5524     +462     
+ Partials     1122     1075      -47     
Flag Coverage Δ
shard-1 50.94% <56.25%> (-0.59%) ⬇️
shard-2 55.15% <62.50%> (-0.64%) ⬇️
shard-3 54.24% <43.75%> (-0.58%) ⬇️

Flags with carried forward coverage won't be shown. Click here to find out more.

Files with missing lines Coverage Δ
src/review/loosening-recs.ts 100.00% <100.00%> (ø)
src/review/selftune-wire.ts 97.05% <100.00%> (+0.08%) ⬆️
src/services/knob-loosening-run.ts 100.00% <100.00%> (ø)

... and 3 files with indirect coverage changes

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calibration: surface reliability curves in the advisor + trend, and evaluate ladder replacement

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