cubits11.github.io

Personal site of Pranav Bhave — AI Assurance · Security Engineering · Evidence Systems; cloud security, claim governance. Live at cubits11.github.io.

Try it first

/explore/ — a probability workbench and entrance to the existing films and evidence. Change two marginal miss rates, inspect their compatible joint distributions, distinguish an independence assumption from a hypothetical joint constraint, and see contradictory inputs produce an empty set. These are illustrative constructions, not measurements. The original fixed-item instrument remains at /worldspace/.

The new workbench uses assets/world.js and the site's existing fonts and colour system. No additional browser dependency. Numerical and public-page discovery regressions can be checked with:

node --test tests/world.test.cjs
python3 tests/test_public_discovery.py

These checks supplement the release manifest. The workbench remains readable without JavaScript and responds to keyboard input; motion respects the device preference. Comprehension and audience impact have not been measured.

cubits11.github.io/try — three experiments, each printed with its command, expected final line, falsifier and non-claim before you run anything. Don't trust the graphic; reproduce it.

git clone https://github.com/Cubits11/cubits11.github.io.git && cd cubits11.github.io
python3 scripts/try_same_scores.py      # 60 s, standard library: two worlds from the same two scores
python3 -m venv .venv && . .venv/bin/activate && pip install -r requirements.txt   # PyYAML, for the next line only
python3 scripts/reanalyze_bells_subset.py   # 3 min, network: a released file recomputed under a hash
python3 scripts/try_audit.py            # 15 min, standard library: the disclosure test on an evaluation you know

Or enter the same proof as an instrument before you run anything: cubits11.github.io/worldspace — predict, then move the misses yourself; the two scores never move while the number both miss runs the whole interval. Available, not yet validated with users (worldspace/LEDGER.md).

A different result is the most useful thing you can send: file it. A counterexample, a benchmark the census missed, or joint outcomes you can provide: bring it. Qualified outcomes — reproductions, corrections, releases, merged patches, cold runs by people who are not the author — are recorded in distribution/outcomes.yaml and rendered on /try/; zero is shown as zero.

Reproduce the claims

First: MC-001 — the Missing Column census

The homepage begins with this bounded reporting claim: among 20 public guardrail evaluations meeting the frozen criteria, 14 establish a shared item set and common event definition, and 5 preserve a declared joint-evidence artifact. The 14 is a shared-basis rung, not proof of matched operating thresholds or full exposure; the stricter ladder is 14/12/0.

python3 -m pip install -r requirements.txt && python3 scripts/verify_census.py --counts

You should see MC-001 expected counts match the census (N/M/K 20/14/5) and MC-001 M ladder matches the census (14/12/0), followed by Census verified. This is a source-bound census of reporting, not a vendor ranking, a population safety estimate, or a claim that any stack is safe or unsafe. Change a row, registered count, or frozen-criteria history and the verifier fails.

Second: MC-004 — released verdicts, recomputed

The least favorable number comes first. On the release's pinned full_run image items, the static OR of the harness-normalized native unsafe bits is 1 for 250/250 benign-labelled images and 200/200 harmful-labelled images. Llama Guard 3 Vision has a 1-bit on every released image item in that directory, so the OR inherits that column. The harness's fixed block action makes this a valid counterfactual harness-block calculation on those pinned rows — not a deployed route, a shared-event catch claim, a model law, or an independent replication of the models.

python3 -m pip install -r requirements.txt && python3 scripts/reanalyze_msbench.py

The script verifies eight source hashes before it counts. Its scope, expected stdout, pinned source, and correction route are on /missing-column/reproduce/.

Third: MC-002 — a five-guard receipt

This command recomputes a joint miss from five vendors' released binary verdicts, and asserts it against the registered value so a mismatch fails loudly instead of quietly re-deriving a new answer.

python3 -m pip install -r requirements.txt && python3 scripts/reanalyze_bells_subset.py

You should see MC-002 reproduced and a joint miss of 9/82 = 11.0% against an independence plug-in of 3.5% — a ratio of 3.14x. What that is: counting arithmetic on 82 author-selected prompts at five vendors' released binary verdicts. What it is not: a population estimate, a claim about any vendor's product, or evidence that stacks are unsafe.

Then price what the marginals alone leave undetermined:

python3 scripts/identification.py --bells

The five published miss rates pin the all-miss rate only to [0.00%, 14.63%] — a width equal to the best single guard's miss rate. Independence names 3.49%, a point inside that set it was never entitled to. The registered value is 10.98%. On the benign side the same marginals pin the stack's flag rate to [20.00%, 50.00%]: a floor that is strictly positive. It actually lands at 38.00%. From published marginals alone one can prove this stack burdens legitimate users, and cannot prove it catches a single harmful item its best member would have missed.

scripts/reproduce_cc001.py (CC-001 and CC-004, the bound kernel) clones cc-framework at its bound commit and installs it into a disposable virtual environment inside the temporary clone, so it runs on externally managed Pythons (Homebrew, Debian, Fedora) without touching your interpreter:

python3 scripts/reproduce_cc001.py

To re-run every gate the way CI does, from a clean clone of a given commit:

python3 scripts/verify_clean_clone.py --commit HEAD

To falsify any of this: change a byte of the pinned upstream file and the hash check fails; change a registered count and the reproduction fails; change a generated page by hand and the drift check fails. Corrections are logged at /corrections/, same calendar day.

Stack

Hand-written HTML and CSS, ~4.5 KB of vanilla JavaScript (theme toggle, the feasible-worlds slider, scroll reveals, copy-email). No framework, no build step for the pages, no analytics, no cookies. Fonts (Fraunces, Instrument Sans, Fragment Mono) are self-hosted latin-subset woff2. The color system is sampled from the hero photograph — every design decision and its rationale is in DESIGN.md.

The epistemic machinery is real, not rhetorical: claims.yaml (schema v0.4) is the registry of every technical claim the site renders with an evidence marker — with visibility, provenance, support role, evidential status, and maturity as separate dimensions; a required falsifier condition with a fixed NARROW/REJECT/HOLD consequence; a required forbidden_rescues list (explicit [] when none applies); and structured expected values that the reproduction script reads instead of hard-coding. /ledger/ is generated from it and drift-checked in CI; commit↔URL bindings are validated and every bound commit is checked reachable from its repository's default branch (one filtered clone per repo — GitHub serves dangling objects, so a resolving URL proves nothing); executable review triggers watch the bound evidence upstream and fail the build when it changes; figure geometry is asserted by scripts/verify_figures.py; and CC-001 + CC-004 (bounds and endpoint witnesses) are re-reproduced from a clean clone on every push and weekly. What v0.2 merely asserted is documented in Noetic Log 001. Since 2026-09-02 a claim's commitment (proposition, scope, falsifier, forbidden rescues, non-claims, expected values) can change only by appending a declared transition to claims_history.yaml; scripts/claims_history.py verify fails any undeclared change, any edit to accepted history, and any re-minted baseline, from that genesis forward — it protected nothing before it existed, and it does not bind an actor who can change the verifier, the workflow, or the history in the same act.

Run locally

python3 -m http.server 4173

Then open http://localhost:4173.

MJGD v1

Minimum Joint Guardrail Disclosure v1 is a machine-readable disclosure schema for a declared multi-guard evaluation. Its validator recomputes only complete static full-exposure outcomes and complete positive-set aggregate pattern tables, returns identified sets for marginals, and holds routes and missing cells rather than guessing. The JSON Schema is structural; the CLI performs semantic conformance checks. MJGD is a schema, not a safety standard or an adoption claim.

Route receipt stub

examples/route-receipt/ is the separate, portable two-file receipt for a declared item-level route. It emits only policy actions from a direct route trace and returns HOLD for a post-hoc static reconstruction. It is a template, not an adoption claim or a deployment certificate.

Deploy & verification

Open a PR, pass the verification workflow, and merge through the reviewed path. The workflow verifies the claim registry — field shape (including falsifiers and forbidden rescues), support-link liveness, ledger coverage, and a freshness gate that fails when a claim passes its review window (also run weekly) — then deploys the exact verified static artifact and checks the live checksum, sitemap, rendered ladder, and correction policy.

Configured deployment control. GitHub Pages publishes through GitHub Actions, and the github-pages environment permits only the default branch. The branch-based Pages publisher is disabled: deployment waits for the claim and reproduction gates, then the workflow smoke-tests the live artifact.

Layout

index.html                  the record's front page (feasible-worlds instrument inline)
essays/when-marginals-are-not-enough/   flagship case study (real kernel output)
modules/                    module system — GENERATED from modules.yaml
observatory/                claim observatory — GENERATED from claims.yaml
ledger/                     evidence ledger — GENERATED from claims.yaml
writing/  archive/  now/    writing index · intellectual lineage · current work
notes/noetic-log-001/       public audit log: what v0.2 pretended to implement
resume/                     web résumé with 90-second overview
stack-study/                browser-local study preflight; static / route / adaptive scopes stay distinct
claims.yaml                 claim registry (schema v0.4) — the source of truth
modules.yaml                module registry — questions, status, bindings
scripts/generate_ledger.py  registry → ledger renderer (CI drift-checks it)
scripts/generate_modules.py module registry → module pages (CI drift-checks)
scripts/generate_observatory.py  claims.yaml → observatory (CI drift-checks)
scripts/verify_claims.py    registry verifier: bindings, triggers, freshness
scripts/verify_figures.py   figure geometry assertions (Fig. 02 + essay)
scripts/verify_frontend.py  static frontend structure + local-only preflight gate
scripts/reproduce_cc001.py  clean-clone reproduction of CC-001 + CC-004 (disposable venv)
try/                        the experiment surface — GENERATED from distribution/experiments.yaml
scripts/try_same_scores.py  TRY-A: two worlds from the same marginals, standard library
scripts/try_audit.py        TRY-C: the disclosure test on an evaluation you know
distribution/               outcomes ledger, experiments, launch units, dossiers, external-events procedure
contrib/                    prepared joint-statistics reporters for two public harnesses (patches, unsent)
films/                      six deterministic evidence-bound films (see films/README.md)
scripts/validate_mjgd.py    MJGD v1 packet validator + fixture/refusal tests
schemas/mjgd-v1.schema.json MJGD v1 schema documentation (validator is the contract)
fixtures/mjgd-v1/           illustrative complete, aggregate, marginal, route, and hold packets
examples/stack-joint/       portable static-OR CSV receipt stub + fixture
docs/MJGD_V1.md             MJGD v1 semantics, replay commands, and non-claims
404.html                    not-found page
assets/                     shared stylesheet, self-hosted fonts, images
DESIGN.md                   design-decision ledger + changelogs + field-artifact notes

Content © Pranav Bhave. Code (HTML/CSS/JS) may be reused with attribution.