diff --git a/pkg/api/job_runs.go b/pkg/api/job_runs.go
index a968b554a..f71d3002c 100644
--- a/pkg/api/job_runs.go
+++ b/pkg/api/job_runs.go
@@ -25,6 +25,7 @@ import (
 	apitype "github.com/openshift/sippy/pkg/apis/api"
 	"github.com/openshift/sippy/pkg/apis/cache"
 	"github.com/openshift/sippy/pkg/apis/openshift"
+	sippyv1 "github.com/openshift/sippy/pkg/apis/sippy/v1"
 	sippyprocessingv1 "github.com/openshift/sippy/pkg/apis/sippyprocessing/v1"
 	"github.com/openshift/sippy/pkg/bigquery"
 	"github.com/openshift/sippy/pkg/dataloader/prowloader"
@@ -612,6 +613,15 @@ func joinSegments(segments []string, start int, separator string) string {
 	return strings.Join(segments[start:], separator)
 }
 
+func latestReleaseForProduct(releases []sippyv1.Release, product string) string {
+	for _, r := range releases {
+		if r.Product == product && r.PreviousRelease != "" && r.Release != models.ReleasePresubmits {
+			return r.Release
+		}
+	}
+	return ""
+}
+
 // JobRunRiskAnalysis checks the test failures and linked bugs for a job run, and reports back an estimated
 // risk level for each failed test, and the job run overall.
 func JobRunRiskAnalysis(
@@ -623,7 +633,7 @@ func JobRunRiskAnalysis(
 	logger = logger.WithField("func", "JobRunRiskAnalysis")
 	// If this job is a Presubmit, compare to test results from master, not presubmits, which may perform
 	// worse due to dev code that hasn't merged. We do not presently track presubmits on branches other than
-	// master, so it should be safe to assume the latest compareRelease in the db.
+	// master, so we use the latest OCP release from the db.
 	compareRelease := jobRun.ProwJob.Release
 	neverStableJob := false
 	if compareRelease == models.ReleasePresubmits {
@@ -631,11 +641,11 @@ func JobRunRiskAnalysis(
 		if err != nil {
 			return apitype.ProwJobRunRiskAnalysis{}, err
 		}
-		if len(ar) == 0 {
-			return apitype.ProwJobRunRiskAnalysis{}, fmt.Errorf("no releases found in db")
+		// TODO: Non-OCP are not supported yet. At least ensure adding new releases doesn't break OCP.
+		compareRelease = latestReleaseForProduct(ar, "OCP")
+		if compareRelease == "" {
+			return apitype.ProwJobRunRiskAnalysis{}, fmt.Errorf("no suitable OCP release found")
 		}
-
-		compareRelease = ar[0].Release
 	}
 
 	historicalCount, err := query.ProwJobHistoricalTestCounts(dbc, jobRun.ProwJob.ID, compareRelease)
diff --git a/pkg/api/job_runs_test.go b/pkg/api/job_runs_test.go
index b22603a98..2edbd6a87 100644
--- a/pkg/api/job_runs_test.go
+++ b/pkg/api/job_runs_test.go
@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ import (
 	"testing"
 
 	apitype "github.com/openshift/sippy/pkg/apis/api"
+	sippyv1 "github.com/openshift/sippy/pkg/apis/sippy/v1"
 	"github.com/openshift/sippy/pkg/db/models"
 	log "github.com/sirupsen/logrus"
 	"github.com/stretchr/testify/assert"
@@ -488,3 +489,70 @@ func TestSelectRiskAnalysisResult(t *testing.T) {
 		})
 	}
 }
+
+func TestLatestReleaseForProduct(t *testing.T) {
+	tests := []struct {
+		name     string
+		releases []sippyv1.Release
+		expected string
+	}{
+		{
+			name:     "empty list",
+			expected: "",
+		},
+		{
+			name: "skips non-OCP products",
+			releases: []sippyv1.Release{
+				{Release: "mcp-0.5", Product: "OCPMCP"},
+				{Release: "5.1", Product: "OCP", PreviousRelease: "5.0"},
+			},
+			expected: "5.1",
+		},
+		{
+			name: "skips releases without PreviousRelease",
+			releases: []sippyv1.Release{
+				{Release: "automation", Product: "OCP"},
+				{Release: "Presubmits", Product: "OCP"},
+				{Release: "4.23", Product: "OCP", PreviousRelease: "4.22"},
+			},
+			expected: "4.23",
+		},
+		{
+			name: "skips Presubmits even if it had PreviousRelease",
+			releases: []sippyv1.Release{
+				{Release: models.ReleasePresubmits, Product: "OCP", PreviousRelease: "something"},
+				{Release: "5.0", Product: "OCP", PreviousRelease: "4.22"},
+			},
+			expected: "5.0",
+		},
+		{
+			name: "realistic production ordering",
+			releases: []sippyv1.Release{
+				{Release: "mcp-0.5", Product: "OCPMCP"},
+				{Release: "5.1", Product: "OCP", PreviousRelease: "5.0"},
+				{Release: "4.23", Product: "OCP", PreviousRelease: "4.22"},
+				{Release: "5.0", Product: "OCP", PreviousRelease: "4.22"},
+				{Release: "5.0-okd", Product: "OKD", PreviousRelease: "4.22-okd"},
+				{Release: "4.22", Product: "OCP", PreviousRelease: "4.21"},
+				{Release: "aro-integration", Product: "HCM"},
+				{Release: "rosa-stage", Product: "ROSA"},
+			},
+			expected: "5.1",
+		},
+		{
+			name: "no OCP releases",
+			releases: []sippyv1.Release{
+				{Release: "mcp-0.5", Product: "OCPMCP"},
+				{Release: "aro-integration", Product: "HCM"},
+				{Release: "rosa-stage", Product: "ROSA"},
+			},
+			expected: "",
+		},
+	}
+
+	for _, tc := range tests {
+		t.Run(tc.name, func(t *testing.T) {
+			assert.Equal(t, tc.expected, latestReleaseForProduct(tc.releases, "OCP"))
+		})
+	}
+}