marketing: MMM calibration launch carousel (Signal palette) + claims-sync guard (#781)

Author: igerber

DEFERRED.md

@@ -136,6 +136,7 @@ decisions (refactor waivers, perf trade-offs, test-infrastructure calls) are rec
 |----------|----------|----------|
 | **Fixed-B Stata SE-golden comparisons in the LWDiD suite run unmarked in default CI** (no `ci_params.bootstrap()` scaling, no `slow` marker): the SE tolerance derives from BOTH fixed rep counts (ours B=999, Stata's R from the golden meta) so scaling either side would invalidate the committed-golden comparison — the ci_params convention governs convergence-style tests, not fixed-B golden comparisons — and these tests are the PR #588 acceptance bar, which must run in default CI; module-scoped fit memoization bounds the cost (~1-2 s per fit locally) | `tests/test_methodology_lwdid.py` | 2026-08-16 |
 | **The 4.0 migration guide's code blocks are not snippet-executed.** `tests/test_doc_snippets.py` discovers a hardcoded list of `.rst` files and only `.. code-block:: python` / RST `::` bodies, so `docs/migration-4.0.md` gets no coverage. Deliberate: the guide is a MIXED document - most "after" examples (the renames, `results.att`) run on the current release, but the `field-flip` and `df-convention-flip` examples describe 4.0 behaviour that cannot run until 4.0, so a blanket execution lane would fail by construction. Closing the gap fully means a markdown-fence extractor plus a skip-marker convention for the future-API blocks - a harness change, out of scope for a docs PR. What IS gated: the appendix's ledger parity (`test_migration_guide_*`), which pins the row set and every mechanically checkable cell; and, since the first local review found all three merge examples carrying invalid keywords, `test_migration_guide_examples_bind_to_real_signatures`, which ast-parses the guide's python blocks and asserts every constructor/`fit()` keyword exists on the target signature. That is signature binding, NOT execution - it deliberately skips calls whose owner it cannot resolve (e.g. `results.aggregate(...)`), and it cannot catch a wrong VALUE or a wrong sequence of calls. The hand-written `Fix` prose remains unverifiable by any available means. | `docs/migration-4.0.md`, `tests/test_doc_snippets.py` | Phase 4 / 2026-08-09 |
+| **MMM launch carousel carries scoped marketing claims, not exporter-contract documentation.** The deck (a LinkedIn marketing artifact, not a docs surface) states capabilities in scoped-but-punchy form: guardrail copy says "the easy mistakes fail loudly" / "you own the design, it owns the math" (the caller-owned estimand/population/window/outcome-scale alignment lives in REGISTRY.md's MMM section and the exporter docstrings, not on slides), and slide 8 shows tutorial 29's worked staggered-boost lift row WITHOUT an on-slide linearity qualifier - the compression's linear-channel scoping is the tutorial's job, which the CTA points to. Absolutes ("no silent mis-calibration", "any estimate exports", "anything with an estimate + SE") are ban-listed by `tests/test_mmm_carousel_claims.py`; local review R1/R2 pressed for compliance-style scoping language on the slides and the marketing-appropriate scoped copy was chosen instead. | `carousel/generate_mmm_carousel.py`, `tests/test_mmm_carousel_claims.py` | mmm-carousel / 2026-08-20 |
 | **MultiPeriodDiD deprecation shim loses static constructor-arg checking (3.9 window).** The M-010 shim is `__init__(*args, **kwargs)` + an import-time `__signature__` mirror of DiD's constructor: runtime introspection (get_params/set_params, `inspect.signature`) and eager validation are fully preserved, but static type checkers / IDEs cannot check constructor arguments for the deprecated class until its 4.0 removal. Accepted: the alternative (hand-mirroring ~20 parameters) is a drift magnet on a class with one minor version of remaining life. | `diff_diff/estimators.py` | 3(a) / 2026-08-07 |
 | **DCDH `sklearn.base.clone` param-identity failure won't-fix.** `ChaisemartinDHaultfoeuille._validate_paths_of_interest` unconditionally canonicalizes `paths_of_interest` into a fresh `List[Tuple[int, ...]]`, so sklearn `clone()`'s post-construction `param1 is param2` identity check fails for configured instances - a pre-existing normalization the BaseEstimator mixin PR documented rather than changed (get_params/set_params signatures are clone-compatible; the dependency-free `cls(**est.get_params())` config-equality contract is the enforced one, `tests/test_base_estimator.py`). Fixing would mean returning the caller's raw object from a validator whose job is canonicalization. | `chaisemartin_dhaultfoeuille.py` | mixin PR / 2026-08-01 |
 | **scikit-learn stays out of dev deps; clone-identity tests remain importorskip-only.** The sklearn-`clone()` round-trip tests (`test_base_estimator.py`, had/rdd/cic suites) run only where scikit-learn happens to be installed - deliberate, matching the numpy/pandas/scipy-only dependency posture; the always-running contract is the dependency-free re-instantiation config-equality test. | `tests/test_base_estimator.py` | mixin PR / 2026-08-01 |

TODO.md

@@ -90,6 +90,7 @@ generic sparse-FE, QR+SVD rank-detection redundancy, `check_finite` bypass — m
 | df-provenance completion follow-up (PR C descoping): a Wooldridge public per-row df channel (a per-key dict that can also carry the hc2_bm BM contrast dofs the scalar `_df_analytic_fallback` cannot represent — the unified surface's Wooldridge df column stays NaN until then); ImputationDiD lead-horizon `event_study_df` (needs the `_compute_lead_coefficients`/`_aggregate_event_study` return-path change plus bootstrap-clearing semantics for post rows); and the `inference_df` (DiD/MPD/SA/StackedDiD) vs `df_inference` (CS/dCDH) adapter-naming unification. NOTE (M-024): StackedDiD's `df_survey=None` on analytical fits is DELIBERATE - the container resolver's `df_inference` fallback not matching `inference_df` is load-bearing (normal-theory FLCI; see the REGISTRY StackedDiD M-024 Note and the pin in `tests/test_event_study_consumers.py`) - the unification must preserve that outcome or renegotiate it explicitly. | `diff_diff/wooldridge_results.py`, `diff_diff/imputation.py`, `diff_diff/results_base.py` | #variance-PR-C | Mid | Low |
 | `worktree-rm` safety via a tested argv helper: the prose rewrite (ask-before-remove confirmation gate, detached-HEAD reachability/rescue, tip-identity force-delete guard) was reverted to the main version because editing the prose repeatedly reintroduced shell-injection (last: sourcing a state file built from a git-derived branch name). Restore those guards in a `worktree_rm.py` that takes the name via file ingress, invokes git through argv arrays, and has a metacharacter-branch/path injection regression test — the pattern that worked for `pr_prepare.py`/`premerge_scan.py`. | `.claude/commands/worktree-rm.md`, `.claude/scripts/` | skill-audit | Heavy | Medium |
 | `premerge_scan.py` should scan the staged blob (`git show :path`) for staged methodology files, not the working-tree copy — a stage-then-revert-working-copy edit currently reads the safe working version and misses the staged violation. Union staged-index findings with unstaged/untracked filesystem findings. | `.claude/scripts/premerge_scan.py` | skill-audit | Mid | Low |
+| Carousel PDF drift guard: the committed deck PDFs are build artifacts of their `generate_*.py` scripts (README rule: regenerate in the same commit), but nothing verifies a committed PDF matches its generator — a source edit without regeneration, or a stale raster chart, passes every claims test. Applies to ALL decks, not just the MMM one. fpdf embeds creation-date metadata, so a byte-compare needs fixed metadata or a per-page rendered-text manifest. Origin: mmm-carousel local review R1. | `carousel/`, `tests/` | mmm-carousel | Mid | Low |
 | Re-add committed-range methodology scanning to `/push-pr-update` §3b (clean tree, commits ahead) using `premerge_scan.py --range`, with the comparison ref passed as **data** (resolved into a quoted variable in one Bash call, never a raw `<placeholder>`). It was removed to avoid ref interpolation; the helper already implements and tests `--range`. | `.claude/commands/push-pr-update.md` | skill-audit | Quick | Low |
 | Codex reviewer isolation (repo-wide): `codex --sandbox read-only` blocks writes but does NOT confine READS to the worktree/repo (verified: a probe read `/etc/hosts`), and prompt guards are not a security boundary. Affects `/ai-review-local` (which already documents and accepts this surface) and plan-review-eval dual arms equally. Evaluate OS-level isolation for codex invocations (container / `sandbox-exec` profile / dedicated low-privilege account exposing only the worktree). | `.claude/scripts/openai_review.py`, `tools/plan-review-eval/` | plan-review-eval local review R6 | Heavy | Medium |
 | plan-review-eval dual arms: terminate the surviving peer subprocess when the first reviewer of a dual pair fails (today an early Claude failure still waits out the codex peer — up to its 3600s ceiling — before the run becomes INFRA_ERROR; needs process handles threaded through `_call_claude`/`call_codex` or a shared cancellation event). | `tools/plan-review-eval/plan_adapters/plan_reviewer.py` | plan-review-eval local review R3 | Mid | Low |