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@@ -340,7 +340,7 @@ There is no vaccination scheme in place
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::::::::::::::::: hint
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### HINT: Running the model with default parameter values
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### HINT: Running the model with default parameter values
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We can run the Vacamole model with [default parameter values](https://epiverse-trace.github.io/epidemics/articles/model_vacamole.html#model-epidemic-using-vacamole) by just specifying the population object and number of time steps to run the model for:
Then, we create a list of all the interventions we want to include in our comparison. We define our scenarios as follows:
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+ scenario 1: close schools
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+ scenario 2: mask mandate
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+ scenario 3: close schools and mask mandate.
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+ scenario 1: close schools
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+ scenario 2: mask mandate
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+ scenario 3: close schools and mask mandate.
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In R we specify this as:
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```{r}
@@ -579,7 +579,7 @@ head(output)
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Now that we have our model output for all of our scenarios, we want to compare the outputs of the interventions to our baseline.
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We can do this using `outcomes_averted()` in `{epidemics}`. This function calculates the final epidemic size for each scenario, and then calculates the number of infections averted in each scenario compared to the baseline. To use this function we specify the:
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We can do this using `outcomes_averted()` in `{epidemics}`. This function calculates the final epidemic size for each scenario, and then calculates the number of infections averted in each scenario compared to the baseline. To use this function we specify the:
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+ output of the baseline scenario
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+ outputs of the intervention scenario(s).
@@ -617,9 +617,9 @@ We recommend to read the vignette on [Modelling responses to a stochastic Ebola
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::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: challenge
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## Challenge: Ebola outbreak analysis
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## Challenge: Ebola outbreak analysis
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You have been tasked to investigate the potential impact of an intervention on an Ebola outbreak in Guinea (e.g. a reduction in risky contacts with cases). Using `model_ebola()` and the the information detailed below, find the number of infections averted when:
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You have been tasked to investigate the potential impact of an intervention on an Ebola outbreak in Guinea (e.g. a reduction in risky contacts with cases). Using `model_ebola()` and the the information detailed below, find the number of infections averted when:
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+ an intervention is applied to reduce the transmission rate by 50% from day 60 and,
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+ an intervention is applied to reduce transmission by 10% from day 30.
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*Note: Depending on the number of replicates used, this simulation may take several minutes to run.*
Copy file name to clipboardExpand all lines: episodes/contact-matrices.Rmd
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@@ -283,7 +283,7 @@ $$
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\end{aligned}
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$$
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To add age structure to our model, we need to add additional equations for the infection states $S$, $I$ and $R$ for each age group $i$. If we want to assume that there is heterogeneity in contacts between age groups then we must adapt the transmission term $\beta SI$ to include the contact matrix $C$ as follows:
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To add age structure to our model, we need to add additional equations for the infection states $S$, $I$ and $R$ for each age group $i$. If we want to assume that there is heterogeneity in contacts between age groups then we must adapt the transmission term $\beta SI$ to include the contact matrix $C$ as follows:
To understand the **indirect** effect of vaccinations, we want to know the effect that vaccination has on transmission, and hence the rate at new infections occur. We will use the function `new_infections()` in `{epidemics}` to calculate the number of new infections over time for the different vaccination programs.
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The inputs required are:
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The inputs required are:
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+`data`: the model output,
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+`exclude_compartments`: this is an optional input, but in our case needed. We don't want the number of people vaccinated to be counted as new infections, so we need to specify the name of the model compartment where individuals transition out from `susceptible` (in this example `vaccinated`),
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+`by_group`: should the results be calculated for each demographic group separately.
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+`data`: the model output,
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+`exclude_compartments`: this is an optional input, but in our case needed. We don't want the number of people vaccinated to be counted as new infections, so we need to specify the name of the model compartment where individuals transition out from `susceptible` (in this example `vaccinated`),
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+`by_group`: should the results be calculated for each demographic group separately.
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```{r}
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We define **early implementation** as the first day of the simulation (i.e. when there are less than 100 infections in total), and **late implementation** as 50 days after the start of the simulation (i.e. when there are approximately 50,000 infections in total). We assume the control measures are in place for 100 days after they start.
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