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config.yaml

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#------------------------------------------------------------
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# Values for this lesson.
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#------------------------------------------------------------
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# Which carpentry is this (swc, dc, lc, or cp)?
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# swc: Software Carpentry
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# dc: Data Carpentry
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# lc: Library Carpentry
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# cp: Carpentries (to use for instructor training for instance)
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# incubator: The Carpentries Incubator
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carpentry: 'epiverse-trace'
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# Overall title for pages.
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title: 'Scenario modelling for outbreak analytics with R'
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# Date the lesson was created (YYYY-MM-DD, this is empty by default)
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created:
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# Comma-separated list of keywords for the lesson
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keywords: 'epidemic models, interventions'
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# Life cycle stage of the lesson
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# possible values: pre-alpha, alpha, beta, stable
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life_cycle: 'pre-alpha'
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# License of the lesson materials (recommended CC-BY 4.0)
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license: 'CC-BY 4.0'
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# Link to the source repository for this lesson
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source: 'https://github.com/epiverse-trace/tutorials-late'
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# Default branch of your lesson
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branch: 'main'
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# Who to contact if there are any issues
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contact: 'andree.valle-campos@lshtm.ac.uk'
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# Navigation ------------------------------------------------
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#
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# Use the following menu items to specify the order of
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# individual pages in each dropdown section. Leave blank to
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# include all pages in the folder.
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#
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# Example -------------
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#
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# episodes:
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# - introduction.md
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# - first-steps.md
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#
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# learners:
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# - setup.md
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#
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# instructors:
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# - instructor-notes.md
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#
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# profiles:
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# - one-learner.md
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# - another-learner.md
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# Order of episodes in your lesson
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episodes:
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- contact-matrices.Rmd
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- simulating-transmission.Rmd
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- model-choices.Rmd
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- modelling-interventions.Rmd
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- compare-interventions.Rmd
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- vaccine-comparisons.Rmd
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- disease-burden.Rmd
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# Information for Learners
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learners:
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# Information for Instructors
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instructors:
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# Learner Profiles
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profiles:
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# Customisation ---------------------------------------------
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#
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# This space below is where custom yaml items (e.g. pinning
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# sandpaper and varnish versions) should live
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varnish: epiverse-trace/varnish@epiversetheme
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sandpaper: epiverse-trace/sandpaper@patch-renv-github-bug

contact-matrices.md

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1 & 3
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\end{bmatrix}
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$$
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In this example, we would use this to represent that children meet, on average, 2 other children and 2 adult per day (first row), and adults meet, on average, 1 child and 3 other adults per day (second row). We can use this kind of information to account for the role heterogeneity in contact plays in infectious disease transmission.
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::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: callout
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\frac{dR}{dt} &=\gamma I \\
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\end{aligned}
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$$
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To add age structure to our model, we need to add additional equations for the infection states $S$, $I$ and $R$ for each age group $i$. If we want to assume that there is heterogeneity in contacts between age groups then we must adapt the transmission term $\beta SI$ to include the contact matrix $C$ as follows :
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$$ \beta S_i \sum_j C_{i,j} I_j/N_j. $$

md5sum.txt

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"config.yaml" "a0c04c1d43ce0640c3ea333b140e89c8" "site/built/config.yaml" "2025-11-22"
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"index.md" "32bc80d6f4816435cc0e01540cb2a513" "site/built/index.md" "2025-11-22"
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"links.md" "8184cf4149eafbf03ce8da8ff0778c14" "site/built/links.md" "2025-11-22"
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"episodes/contact-matrices.Rmd" "19856620d33f9b7f4e8ee312460494f1" "site/built/contact-matrices.md" "2025-11-22"
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"episodes/contact-matrices.Rmd" "9e9d596cf25f68a50522b15a234472ac" "site/built/contact-matrices.md" "2025-11-22"
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"episodes/simulating-transmission.Rmd" "3e3ecf82148896a33189045d704f9606" "site/built/simulating-transmission.md" "2025-11-22"
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"episodes/model-choices.Rmd" "aa195e66455fb6a97b4930fd08c08001" "site/built/model-choices.md" "2025-11-22"
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"episodes/modelling-interventions.Rmd" "79b561f3ee274407dddbda6a1b9c1a68" "site/built/modelling-interventions.md" "2025-11-22"
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"episodes/modelling-interventions.Rmd" "c70c9baddc80d94eebd2e50f7efc72cb" "site/built/modelling-interventions.md" "2025-11-22"
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"episodes/compare-interventions.Rmd" "2ef6697bbad9bcfb843ab9d50469123b" "site/built/compare-interventions.md" "2025-11-22"
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"episodes/vaccine-comparisons.Rmd" "bb9110b17b2b5cdc915df3f17eae15df" "site/built/vaccine-comparisons.md" "2025-11-22"
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"episodes/disease-burden.Rmd" "9deead362349c98be8f1d9380a7b975a" "site/built/disease-burden.md" "2025-11-22"

modelling-interventions.md

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## A baseline model
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## Baseline model
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We will investigate the effect of interventions on a COVID-19 outbreak using an SEIR model (`model_default()` in the R package `{epidemics}`). To be able to see the effect of our intervention, we will run a baseline variant of the model, i.e, without intervention.
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[1] "[0,15)" "[15,65)" "65+"
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```
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Therefore, we specify ` reduction = matrix(c(0.5, 0.01, 0.01))`. We assume that the school closures start on day 50 and continue to be in place for a further 100 days. Therefore our intervention object is:
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Therefore, we specify `reduction = matrix(c(0.5, 0.01, 0.01))`. We assume that the school closures start on day 50 and continue to be in place for a further 100 days. Therefore our intervention object is:
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``` r
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We expect that mask wearing will reduce an individual's infectiousness, based on multiple studies showing the effectiveness of masks in reducing transmission. As we are using a population-based model, we cannot make changes to individual behavior and so assume that the transmission rate $\beta$ is reduced by a proportion due to mask wearing in the population. We specify this proportion, $\theta$ as product of the proportion wearing masks multiplied by the proportion reduction in transmission rate (adapted from [Li et al. 2020](https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237691)).
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We create an intervention object with `type = rate` and `reduction = 0.161`. Using parameters adapted from [Li et al. 2020](https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237691) we have proportion wearing masks = coverage $\times$ availability = $0.54 \times 0.525 = 0.2835$ and proportion reduction in transmission rate = $0.575$. Therefore, $\theta = 0.2835 \times 0.575 = 0.163$. We assume that the mask wearing mandate starts at day 40 and continue to be in place for 200 days.
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We create an intervention object with `type = "rate"` and `reduction = 0.161`. Using parameters adapted from [Li et al. 2020](https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237691) we have proportion wearing masks = coverage $\times$ availability = $0.54 \times 0.525 = 0.2835$ and proportion reduction in transmission rate = $0.575$. Therefore, $\theta = 0.2835 \times 0.575 = 0.163$. We assume that the mask wearing mandate starts at day 40 and continue to be in place for 200 days.
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``` r
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\frac{dV_i}{dt} & =\nu_{i,t} S_i\\
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\end{aligned}
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$$
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Individuals in age group ($i$) at specific time dependent ($t$) are vaccinated at rate ($\nu_{i,t}$). The other SEIR components of these equations are described in the tutorial [simulating transmission](../episodes/simulating-transmission.md#simulating-disease-spread).
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To explore the effect of vaccination we need to create a vaccination object to pass as an input into `model_default()` that includes age groups specific vaccination rate `nu` and age groups specific start and end times of the vaccination program (`time_begin` and `time_end`).

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