diff --git a/.github/workflows/ci.yml b/.github/workflows/ci.yml index bb71dd5b..ffc628a7 100644 --- a/.github/workflows/ci.yml +++ b/.github/workflows/ci.yml @@ -146,6 +146,11 @@ jobs: uv pip install --python .venv-variant/bin/python rfc8785==0.1.4 jsonschema - name: The installed environment is exactly the variant's run: .venv-variant/bin/python -c "from pipeline import uk_replay_variants as rv; rv.verify_installed(rv.get_variant('$VARIANT')); print('installed environment matches $VARIANT')" + # The dashboard export picks a revision submission from this table, not + # from the engine it runs on, so each engine checks its own entry. An + # unrecorded engine passes unless the variant has a committed export. + - name: Check the export's recorded Scenario route on this engine + run: .venv-variant/bin/python -m pipeline.export_uk_events_dashboard --check-scenario-capability --variant "$VARIANT" - name: Construction guards on the variant's engine run: | set -euo pipefail diff --git a/docs/uk_replay/DASHBOARD_EXPORT.md b/docs/uk_replay/DASHBOARD_EXPORT.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..163850c2 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/uk_replay/DASHBOARD_EXPORT.md @@ -0,0 +1,192 @@ +# Dashboard export of certified event replays + +The UK Autumn Budget dashboard +([PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026)) +can show past fiscal events beside the current Budget. It runs every figure +through its own publication pipeline, on its own certified model and data +pair. So what it takes from a replay is how each measure was built, not the +replay's numbers. `pipeline/export_uk_events_dashboard.py` writes that, one +file per event, from a certified replay namespace: + +```bash +PYTHONPATH=. uv run --with numpy python pipeline/export_uk_events_dashboard.py \ + [--variant ] [--events ...] +``` + +The output is `results/uk/dashboard_export//.json`, +plus `EXPORT_MANIFEST.json` with the digest of each file. Without `--variant` +the newest certified replay namespace is used. The committed export is for +`pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1`, covering the six events in its +corpus: 25 computed measures out of 426. + +## What each file holds + +- **Identity.** The event, its registry path and digest, and the variant: + packages, dataset, data years, and the digests of the receipt, namespace + manifest, run manifest and `COMPARISON.csv`. The supported and unsupported + years come from the run manifest. +- **Every registry measure.** Each one carries its classification, its gap + kind when it is not expressible, and the registry's reason for anything + without a counterpart: missing legs, the out-of-scope reason, or the + `pe_gap`. A measure whose class is computable but which has nothing to + execute by design takes `compute_uk_ab2025.not_computable`'s reason. +- **The construction of each computed measure.** This is what the + importer needs: + - `kind`: either `reversal_on_certified_world` or + `forward_delta_on_certified_world`; + - each world's engine entry point and the parameter dictionary the replay + submitted, merged across years (two years that disagree on a window are + refused); + - the construction revision, if one ran, and the `null_executed_as_no_limit` + sentinels; + - `executor_route`: `uc_health_element_refresh` when the construction + changes `UC_HEALTH_ELEMENT_PARAMETER`, because + `compute_uk_event.uc_health_scenario` refreshes Universal Credit's seeded + cohort after the parameter change. An importer has to reproduce that route, + not only the dictionary. + - the declared fiscal heads. +- **Per year.** `measure_total_gbp`, the head effects, and the processed + parameter values the engine reported (intended and processed, for each + world), with the artifact path and digest. These are the replay's numbers + on the replay's pair. The dashboard uses them only for the differential + check described below. +- **The OBR side of every source row.** Each row carries the OBR value as an + exact decimal, its class and `COMPARISON.csv` status. It also carries the + replay's own counterpart, gap and ratio from `COMPARISON.csv`, named + `replay_*` (including `replay_ratio_bin`) so that nothing reads them as the + dashboard's figures. +- **Accounting.** The registry's source-inventory accounting, recomputed from + the rows with arithmetic that refuses to round. It must equal the + registry's recorded accounting exactly. It gives each class's measures, + rows, net and absolute GBP, and exact shares (`"p/q"`) of the absolute GBP + and of the measures. It also gives the rows by comparison status: of + everything the OBR costed, how much has a computed counterpart. + +Nothing household-level is read or written. The artifacts are national +aggregates, and the OBR rows are published costings. + +## What the numbers mean + +Each computed measure is costed on the replay's certified model and data. The +rest of the law is held at what that engine treats as current law, so these +are not the estimates made at the time of the event: + +- **A reversal** undoes the measure in its baseline world, and its reform + world is current law. +- **A forward delta** runs current law as its baseline world and adds the + measure in its reform world. +- **Totals.** `measure_total_gbp` is the sum of the declared heads' effects. + A positive value is a gain to the Exchequer. +- **Years.** Replay year Y is calendar year Y, the proxy for fiscal year + Y-(Y+1). + +So a measure later changed by another event is costed at the margin of +today's law. Two cases in the committed export: + +- **Autumn Budget 2024 winter fuel means test.** It is costed with Autumn + Budget 2025's £35,000 income test still in place. +- **The two 2p Class 1 employee NICs cuts.** The cuts in the Autumn Statement + 2023 and the Spring Budget 2024 each reverse 8% to 10% on the certified + world, so they give the same totals. Each event's construction note says so. + +## Checks before anything is written + +The export reads only what the seal covers: + +1. The variant record must validate, and its recomputed identity digest must + match `REPLAY_RECEIPT.json`. The receipt and its integrity status must both + be complete. It names the digest of `NAMESPACE_MANIFEST.json`, which names + the digest of every file read: run manifests, provenance, `COMPARISON.csv` + and artifacts. The corpus and namespace manifest must name the same event + inventory; missing event files are refused. +2. Each run manifest's registry digest must equal the committed registry file, + and so must `COMPARISON_PROVENANCE.json`'s. +3. Every artifact must belong to this event and variant, and to a measure the + registry computes. Artifact measure/year pairs must be unique and equal + the registry's supported-year grid. Data years must match the sealed run. + Every `COMPARISON.csv` row must be a registry source row with the same OBR + value; a measure without computation cannot own constructed rows. +4. Each computed measure's submitted worlds must equal the registry's + construction under `compute_uk_event.annual_reform`, after applying any + recorded construction revision. Revision evidence must match the revision + registry. The receipt-bound engine version must agree with the sealed + construction premises, run manifest and every artifact. A verified + `Scenario.from_reform` capability table selects exactly one revision + submission: fiscal windows for engines with `dated_reforms`, annual + windows otherwise; unlisted engine versions are refused. Each + replay-engine leg of CI checks the table's entry against the replay's own + route on that leg's engine (`--check-scenario-capability`), and refuses an + unlisted engine for a variant with a committed export. Every artifact's two + entry points must match its submitted worlds: `certified_current_law` + for an empty or absent reform, `built_simulation_scenario` for a reform + containing the UC health element parameter, and `construction_reform` for + other nonempty reforms. Each computed measure must also agree with its + artifacts on the construction kind, entry points, sentinels and heads. + +A legacy namespace (no processed-parameter evidence) and an uncertified +variant are refused. + +## Invariants + +`tests/test_export_uk_events_dashboard.py` checks these for every committed +export: + +- **Regeneration.** The export regenerates byte for byte, and the manifest + names each file by its digest. +- **Coverage.** Every registry measure appears once. It is computed exactly + when the registry computes it, with one year per supported year. A measure + that is not computed has a reason. +- **Construction direction.** A reversal submits a baseline-world dictionary + and runs current law as its reform world. A forward delta does the opposite. +- **Totals.** Each year's total is the sum of its head effects. +- **Accounting.** + - Classes partition the source rows, so their absolute and measure shares + each sum to exactly 1. + - Statuses partition the rows too. + - The constructed rows' absolute GBP is no more than the computable + classes'. +- **Closed shape.** The document has no field beyond the schema's. + +Hypothesis properties cover the exact decimal text, shares of any partition, +sums that never round, and merging years in any order. The accounting is also +checked against an independent Fraction implementation over generated +registries. Tampered copies of a sealed namespace (an artifact, +`COMPARISON.csv`, the namespace manifest, the registry) are refused. + +## How the dashboard uses it + +The importer writes each computed measure into the dashboard's registry under +its event: + +- **Reversal.** The baseline world's dictionary becomes the entry's + `baseline_parameter_changes`, with no reform changes. +- **Forward delta.** The dictionary becomes its `parameter_changes`. + +These dictionaries are the replay's literal submissions. Their timing meaning +therefore depends on the engine and entry point recorded in the export. An +importer must adapt that route to its engine and must not pass the exported +dictionaries through `compute_uk_event.annual_reform` again. That function +maps a window's start to the first 1 January on or after it: for example, +annualising CGT's exported `2024-04-06.2036-04-05` window again produces +`2025-01-01.2036-12-31`, shifting its first year from 2024 to 2025. After +adapting the route, read back each parameter for each supported year and +compare it with that world's exported `processed_parameter_values` intended +value. The per-year intended values are the timing comparison target. + +The dashboard's own pipeline then produces the full table set on the +dashboard's pair. Measures without a construction stay listed as not modelled, +with their class and reason. The page links to +[policyengine-scorecard.vercel.app](https://policyengine-scorecard.vercel.app) +for the replay itself rather than repeating it. + +The dashboard pair differs from this variant's: as of 24 October 2026 it is +policyengine 6.10.2 with policyengine-uk 2.132.6 and the Microcosm UK 2024-25 +build. A national figure from the dashboard can therefore differ from +`measure_total_gbp` because of the pair, not the construction. Until a +replay is certified on the dashboard's pair, the differential check works at +the parameter level. In the world where the dictionary is submitted, the +dashboard's processed value for each parameter must equal the intended value +recorded here. In the current-law world, a different value is pair drift: the +check reports it rather than hiding it. Once a replay on the dashboard's pair +exists, export it with `--variant`; the national totals can then be compared +within a stated tolerance. diff --git a/pipeline/export_uk_events_dashboard.py b/pipeline/export_uk_events_dashboard.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..923c5e9c --- /dev/null +++ b/pipeline/export_uk_events_dashboard.py @@ -0,0 +1,921 @@ +"""Export certified UK fiscal-event replays for the Autumn Budget dashboard. + +The dashboard (PolicyEngine/uk-autumn-budget-dashboard-2026) can show past +fiscal events next to the current Budget. It runs its own pipeline on its own +model and data pair, so what it takes from a replay is the construction, not +the numbers: for each computed measure, the baseline and reform parameter +dictionaries the replay submitted to the engine, its declared fiscal heads, +and, for the differential check, the replay's per-year totals on the replay's +pair. For every measure, computed or not, it takes the registry's +classification and reason, and the OBR side of each source row. The event's +source-inventory accounting is the registry's, recomputed here and required +to agree exactly. + +Everything read is bound to the sealed namespace: the variant's +REPLAY_RECEIPT.json names NAMESPACE_MANIFEST.json's digest, which lists the +digest of every file the export reads there, and each event's RUN_MANIFEST.json +names the registry digest the replay ran. A file that does not match is +refused; nothing is exported from it. + +No household-level value is read or written: artifacts carry national +aggregates only, and the OBR rows are published costings. + + PYTHONPATH=. python pipeline/export_uk_events_dashboard.py \ + [--variant ] [--events ...] [--output-root ] + +Without --variant the newest certified replay-namespace variant is used. The +output is results/uk/dashboard_export//.json and an +EXPORT_MANIFEST.json listing each file's digest. Bytes depend only on the +committed inputs. + + PYTHONPATH=. python pipeline/export_uk_events_dashboard.py \ + --check-scenario-capability [--variant ] + +checks SCENARIO_DATED_REFORMS against the installed engine instead, as each +replay-engine leg of CI does on its variant's own environment. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import csv +import hashlib +import io +import json +import sys +from collections import defaultdict +from contextlib import contextmanager +from decimal import Decimal, Inexact, localcontext +from fractions import Fraction +from importlib import metadata +from pathlib import Path + +from pipeline import compute_uk_ab2025 as worlds +from pipeline import compute_uk_event as replay +from pipeline import uk_construction_revisions as construction_revisions +from pipeline import uk_replay_variants as variants + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent +SCHEMA = "policyengine-scorecard/uk-event-dashboard-export/v1" +EXPORT_ROOT = ROOT / "results" / "uk" / "dashboard_export" +EXPORT_MANIFEST = "EXPORT_MANIFEST.json" +CLASSES = ("expressible", "partial", "not_expressible", "out_of_household_scope") +COMPUTABLE = ("expressible", "partial") +GAP_KINDS = ("construction_pending", "model_or_data_gap") +CONSTRUCTED = "constructed" +# Constructions whose replay route is more than a parameter dictionary: the +# replay refreshes Universal Credit's seeded cohort after the parameter change +# (compute_uk_event.uc_health_scenario). An importer must reproduce the route, +# not just the dictionary. +EXECUTOR_ROUTES = {replay.UC_HEALTH_ELEMENT_PARAMETER: "uc_health_element_refresh"} +# The seal records engine versions, but not Scenario's dated-reform capability. +# Keep only versions verified on the engine itself (--check-scenario-capability, +# which each replay-engine leg of CI runs); unknown versions must not select +# either revision submission by inference. +SCENARIO_DATED_REFORMS = {"2.130.1": True} +# The reform the capability check routes: a path to an annual window to a +# value, the shape compute_uk_event.annual_reform hands revision_reform_route. +CAPABILITY_PROBE = {"gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate": {"2024-01-01.2035-12-31": 0.1}} + +SEMANTICS = ( + "Each computed measure is costed on the replay's certified model and data, " + "holding the rest of the law at what that engine treats as current law. A " + "reversal_on_certified_world measure is in current law: its baseline world " + "undoes it (baseline_world.submitted_reform) and its reform world is " + "current law. A forward_delta_on_certified_world measure is not in current " + "law: its baseline world is current law and its reform world adds it " + "(reform_world.submitted_reform). measure_total_gbp is the sum of the " + "declared fiscal heads' Exchequer effects, positive meaning a gain to the " + "Exchequer; replay year Y is calendar year Y, the proxy for fiscal year " + "Y-(Y+1). These are not the estimates made at the time of the event." +) + + +class ExportError(ValueError): + """An input does not match what the sealed namespace says it is.""" + + +def sha256_bytes(data: bytes) -> str: + return hashlib.sha256(data).hexdigest() + + +def canonical_json(value: object) -> bytes: + return ( + json.dumps(value, indent=1, sort_keys=True, ensure_ascii=False) + "\n" + ).encode() + + +@contextmanager +def exact(): + """Decimal arithmetic that refuses to round. + + The registry's sums of 1,000-odd cells run past the default 28 digits; a + sum that would round raises instead of disagreeing silently.""" + with localcontext() as context: + context.prec = 1000 + context.traps[Inexact] = True + yield + + +def decimal_text(value: Decimal) -> str: + """Exact decimal text, with no exponent and no trailing zeros.""" + text = format(value, "f") + if "." in text: + text = text.rstrip("0").rstrip(".") + return "0" if text in ("", "-0") else text + + +def share_text(part: Decimal, whole: Decimal) -> str | None: + """part/whole as an exact fraction "p/q" (None when whole is zero). + + Shares are exact, so the shares of a partition sum to exactly one.""" + if whole == 0: + return None + fraction = Fraction(part) / Fraction(whole) + return f"{fraction.numerator}/{fraction.denominator}" + + +class Namespace: + """The sealed files of one certified variant, each read once and checked.""" + + def __init__(self, record: dict, *, root: Path = ROOT): + if record.get("status") != "certified": + raise ExportError(f"{record['variant_id']} is not certified") + if variants.is_legacy(record): + raise ExportError( + f"{record['variant_id']} is the legacy namespace: export a " + "replay_namespace variant, which records processed parameters" + ) + try: + variants.validate_record(record, root=root) + except variants.VariantError as exc: + raise ExportError(f"invalid variant record: {exc}") from exc + identity_sha256 = variants.identity_sha256(record["identity"]) + self.root = root + self.record = record + self.path = variants.namespace_root(record, root=root) + receipt_bytes = (self.path / variants.RECEIPT_NAME).read_bytes() + receipt = json.loads(receipt_bytes) + if ( + receipt.get("status") != "complete" + or receipt.get("integrity", {}).get("status") != "complete" + or receipt.get("variant_id") != record["variant_id"] + ): + raise ExportError( + f"{self.path}: receipt is not a complete seal of this variant" + ) + if receipt.get("variant_identity_sha256") != identity_sha256: + raise ExportError( + f"{self.path}: receipt names a different variant identity" + ) + manifest_bytes = (self.path / "NAMESPACE_MANIFEST.json").read_bytes() + if sha256_bytes(manifest_bytes) != receipt["results"]["manifest_sha256"]: + raise ExportError( + f"{self.path}: NAMESPACE_MANIFEST.json is not the sealed one" + ) + self.receipt = receipt + self.receipt_sha256 = sha256_bytes(receipt_bytes) + self.manifest_sha256 = sha256_bytes(manifest_bytes) + self.files = json.loads(manifest_bytes)["files"] + self.engine_version = record["identity"]["packages"]["policyengine-uk"][ + "version" + ] + if ( + self.json("CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json")["engine"]["policyengine_uk"] + != self.engine_version + ): + raise ExportError("construction premises engine differs from the variant") + try: + self.scenario_dated_reforms = SCENARIO_DATED_REFORMS[self.engine_version] + except KeyError as exc: + raise ExportError( + f"unverified Scenario route for policyengine-uk {self.engine_version}" + ) from exc + + def read(self, relative: str) -> bytes: + """A namespace file's bytes, refused unless the seal lists that digest.""" + if relative not in self.files: + raise ExportError(f"{relative} is not listed in the sealed namespace") + try: + data = (self.path / relative).read_bytes() + except FileNotFoundError as exc: + raise ExportError(f"{relative}: sealed file is missing") from exc + if sha256_bytes(data) != self.files[relative]: + raise ExportError(f"{relative} does not match its sealed digest") + return data + + def json(self, relative: str) -> dict: + return json.loads(self.read(relative)) + + def events(self) -> list[str]: + events = json.loads(self.read(variants.CORPUS_NAME))["events"] + manifested = { + path.removesuffix("/RUN_MANIFEST.json") + for path in self.files + if path.endswith("/RUN_MANIFEST.json") + } + if len(events) != len(set(events)) or set(events) != manifested: + raise ExportError("sealed corpus and namespace event inventory disagree") + return events + + +def default_variant(document: dict) -> dict: + """The newest certified replay namespace: the last one the index records.""" + certified = [ + v + for v in document["variants"] + if v["status"] == "certified" and not variants.is_legacy(v) + ] + if not certified: + raise ExportError("no certified replay-namespace variant is recorded") + return certified[-1] + + +def union_reforms(per_year: list[dict | None], context: str) -> dict | None: + """One dictionary from each year's submitted reform. + + The replay submits the same construction every year; a construction + revision can only add windows. Two years submitting different values for + the same path and window is refused.""" + merged: dict = {} + seen = False + for reform in per_year: + if reform is None: + continue + seen = True + for path, windows in reform.items(): + target = merged.setdefault(path, {}) + for window, value in windows.items(): + if window in target and target[window] != value: + raise ExportError(f"{context}: years disagree on {path} {window}") + target[window] = value + if not seen: + return None + return { + path: dict(sorted(windows.items())) for path, windows in sorted(merged.items()) + } + + +def executor_route(*reforms: dict | None) -> str | None: + routes = { + route + for reform in reforms + for path, route in EXECUTOR_ROUTES.items() + if reform and path in reform + } + if len(routes) > 1: + raise ExportError( + f"a construction needs more than one executor route: {sorted(routes)}" + ) + return routes.pop() if routes else None + + +def comparison_rows(namespace: Namespace, event: str) -> dict[str, dict]: + """COMPARISON.csv's rows by source row id (the OBR side and status).""" + text = namespace.read(f"{event}/COMPARISON.csv").decode() + rows = {} + for row in csv.DictReader(io.StringIO(text)): + if row["source_row_id"] in rows: + raise ExportError(f"{event}: COMPARISON.csv repeats {row['source_row_id']}") + rows[row["source_row_id"]] = row + return rows + + +def optional_number(text: str) -> float | None: + return float(text) if text != "" else None + + +def measure_reason(measure: dict) -> str | None: + """Why a measure, or part of it, has no PolicyEngine counterpart.""" + classification = measure.get("classification", measure.get("computability")) + legs = [leg for leg in measure.get("missing_legs") or [] if leg] + if classification == "out_of_household_scope": + reasons = sorted( + { + row.get("classification_reason") + for row in measure["source_rows"] + if row.get("classification") == "out_of_household_scope" + and row.get("classification_reason") + } + ) + legs = legs or reasons + return " ".join(legs) or measure.get("pe_gap") or None + + +def accounting(registry: dict) -> dict: + """The registry's source-inventory accounting, recomputed from its rows. + + Classes partition the source rows; measure counts classify each measure + once. Both are required to equal the registry's recorded accounting.""" + with exact(): + return _accounting(registry) + + +def _accounting(registry: dict) -> dict: + by_class = { + c: {"measures": 0, "rows": 0, "net": Decimal(0), "absolute": Decimal(0)} + for c in CLASSES + } + gaps = { + k: {"measures": 0, "rows": 0, "net": Decimal(0), "absolute": Decimal(0)} + for k in GAP_KINDS + } + by_fy = {} + for measure in registry["measures"]: + classification = measure.get("classification", measure.get("computability")) + by_class[classification]["measures"] += 1 + if classification == "not_expressible": + gaps[measure.get("gap_kind")]["measures"] += 1 + for row in measure["source_rows"]: + row_class = row.get("classification", classification) + value = Decimal(row["value_gbp_decimal"]) + fiscal_year = by_fy.setdefault( + row["fy"], {"rows": 0, "net": Decimal(0), "absolute": Decimal(0)} + ) + for account in [by_class[row_class], fiscal_year] + ( + [gaps[row.get("gap_kind", measure.get("gap_kind"))]] + if row_class == "not_expressible" + else [] + ): + account["rows"] += 1 + account["net"] += value + account["absolute"] += abs(value) + recorded = registry["accounting"] + for c in CLASSES: + theirs = recorded["by_class"][c] + ours = by_class[c] + if ( + ours["rows"] != theirs["rows"] + or ours["net"] != Decimal(theirs["net_gbp_decimal"]) + or ours["absolute"] != Decimal(theirs["absolute_gbp_decimal"]) + or ("measures" in theirs and ours["measures"] != theirs["measures"]) + ): + raise ExportError( + f"{registry['event_slug']}: {c} accounting differs from the registry" + ) + total_rows = sum(a["rows"] for a in by_class.values()) + total_net = sum((a["net"] for a in by_class.values()), Decimal(0)) + total_absolute = sum((a["absolute"] for a in by_class.values()), Decimal(0)) + + def totals_match(account: dict, rows: int, net: Decimal, absolute: Decimal) -> bool: + return all( + account[f"rows_{side}"] == rows + and Decimal(account[f"net_gbp_{side}_decimal"]) == net + and Decimal(account[f"absolute_gbp_{side}_decimal"]) == absolute + for side in ("in", "classified") + ) + + if not totals_match(recorded, total_rows, total_net, total_absolute): + raise ExportError( + f"{registry['event_slug']}: accounting totals differ from the registry" + ) + if set(by_fy) != set(recorded["by_fy"]) or any( + not totals_match( + recorded["by_fy"][fy], account["rows"], account["net"], account["absolute"] + ) + for fy, account in by_fy.items() + ): + raise ExportError( + f"{registry['event_slug']}: fiscal-year accounting differs from the registry" + ) + + def render(account: dict) -> dict: + return { + "measures": account["measures"], + "rows": account["rows"], + "net_gbp_decimal": decimal_text(account["net"]), + "absolute_gbp_decimal": decimal_text(account["absolute"]), + "share_of_absolute": share_text(account["absolute"], total_absolute), + "share_of_measures": share_text( + Decimal(account["measures"]), Decimal(len(registry["measures"])) + ), + } + + return { + "amount_basis": recorded["amount_basis"], + "sign_convention": recorded["sign_convention"], + "by_class": {c: render(by_class[c]) for c in CLASSES}, + "not_expressible_by_gap_kind": {k: render(gaps[k]) for k in GAP_KINDS}, + "totals": { + "measures": len(registry["measures"]), + "rows": total_rows, + "net_gbp_decimal": decimal_text(total_net), + "absolute_gbp_decimal": decimal_text(total_absolute), + }, + } + + +def computed_accounting(measures: list[dict], totals: dict) -> dict: + """The source rows with a computed PolicyEngine counterpart, against all.""" + with exact(): + return _computed_accounting(measures, totals) + + +def _computed_accounting(measures: list[dict], totals: dict) -> dict: + rows = [row for m in measures for row in m["obr_rows"]] + absolute = sum( + ( + abs(Decimal(r["obr_value_gbp_decimal"])) + for r in rows + if r["status"] == CONSTRUCTED + ), + Decimal(0), + ) + whole = Decimal(totals["absolute_gbp_decimal"]) + by_status: dict[str, dict] = {} + for row in rows: + account = by_status.setdefault( + row["status"], {"rows": 0, "absolute": Decimal(0)} + ) + account["rows"] += 1 + account["absolute"] += abs(Decimal(row["obr_value_gbp_decimal"])) + return { + "by_status": { + status: { + "rows": account["rows"], + "absolute_gbp_decimal": decimal_text(account["absolute"]), + "share_of_absolute": share_text(account["absolute"], whole), + } + for status, account in sorted(by_status.items()) + }, + "measures": sum(m["computed"] for m in measures), + "rows": sum(r["status"] == CONSTRUCTED for r in rows), + "absolute_gbp_decimal": decimal_text(absolute), + "share_of_absolute": share_text(absolute, whole), + "share_of_measures": share_text( + Decimal(sum(m["computed"] for m in measures)), Decimal(totals["measures"]) + ), + } + + +def build_event_export(namespace: Namespace, event: str) -> dict: + """One event's export document.""" + run = namespace.json(f"{event}/RUN_MANIFEST.json") + provenance = namespace.json(f"{event}/COMPARISON_PROVENANCE.json") + registry_path = namespace.root / run["registry_path"] + registry_bytes = registry_path.read_bytes() + registry_sha256 = sha256_bytes(registry_bytes) + if ( + registry_sha256 != run["registry_sha256"] + or registry_sha256 != provenance["registry_sha256"] + ): + raise ExportError( + f"{event}: {run['registry_path']} is not the registry this replay ran" + ) + registry = json.loads(registry_bytes) + if registry["event_slug"] != event or run["event"] != event: + raise ExportError(f"{event}: registry and run name different events") + if ( + run.get("variant_id", namespace.record["variant_id"]) + != namespace.record["variant_id"] + ): + raise ExportError(f"{event}: run belongs to another variant") + if ( + run["variant_identity_sha256"] != namespace.record["identity_sha256"] + or run["data_years"] != namespace.record["data_years"] + ): + raise ExportError( + f"{event}: run identity or data years differ from the variant" + ) + if run["engine_version"] != namespace.engine_version: + raise ExportError(f"{event}: run engine differs from the variant") + supported, unsupported = variants.supported_years( + namespace.record, registry["calendar_years"] + ) + if run["supported_years"] != supported or run["unsupported_years"] != unsupported: + raise ExportError(f"{event}: run does not cover the registry's supported years") + index = {m["measure_key"]: m for m in registry["measures"]} + planned = worlds.computable(index, years=run["supported_years"]) + idle = worlds.not_computable(index, years=run["supported_years"]) + revisions = run.get("construction_revisions") or {} + rows_by_id = comparison_rows(namespace, event) + seen_rows: set[str] = set() + + artifacts_by_measure: dict[str, list[dict]] = defaultdict(list) + artifact_pairs: set[tuple[str, int]] = set() + prefix = f"{namespace.path.relative_to(namespace.root).as_posix()}/" + for path, digest in run["artifacts"].items(): + relative = path.removeprefix(prefix) + if namespace.files.get(relative) != digest: + raise ExportError( + f"{event}: {relative} is not sealed with the run's digest" + ) + artifact = namespace.json(relative) + if ( + artifact["event"] != event + or artifact.get("variant_id") != namespace.record["variant_id"] + ): + raise ExportError(f"{relative}: artifact names another event or variant") + if artifact["engine_version"] != namespace.engine_version: + raise ExportError(f"{relative}: artifact engine differs from the variant") + pair = (artifact["measure_key"], artifact["year"]) + if pair in artifact_pairs: + raise ExportError(f"{event}: duplicate artifact measure/year {pair}") + artifact_pairs.add(pair) + artifacts_by_measure[artifact["measure_key"]].append( + {"path": path, "sha256": digest, "artifact": artifact} + ) + expected_pairs = { + (key, year) + for key in planned + if index[key].get("classification", index[key].get("computability")) + in COMPUTABLE + for year in supported + } + if artifact_pairs != expected_pairs: + raise ExportError( + f"{event}: artifacts do not equal the expected supported-year grid" + ) + + measures = [] + for key in sorted(index): + measure = index[key] + classification = measure.get("classification", measure.get("computability")) + if classification not in CLASSES: + raise ExportError(f"{key}: unknown classification {classification!r}") + obr_rows = [] + for source in measure["source_rows"]: + row = rows_by_id.get(source["source_row_id"]) + if row is None or row["measure_key"] != key: + raise ExportError( + f"{key}: source row {source['source_row_id']} is not in COMPARISON.csv" + ) + if Decimal(row["obr_value_gbp_decimal"]) != Decimal( + source["value_gbp_decimal"] + ): + raise ExportError( + f"{key}: COMPARISON.csv changes the OBR value of {source['source_row_id']}" + ) + seen_rows.add(source["source_row_id"]) + obr_rows.append( + { + "source_row_id": source["source_row_id"], + "fy": source["fy"], + "year": int(row["year"]), + "tax_head": source["tax_head"], + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": decimal_text( + Decimal(source["value_gbp_decimal"]) + ), + "classification": source.get("classification", classification), + "status": row["status"], + "reason": row["reason"] or None, + # The replay's own counterpart on the replay's pair, from + # COMPARISON.csv: not the dashboard's figure. + "replay_pe_value_gbp": optional_number(row["pe_value_gbp"]), + "replay_gap_gbp": optional_number(row["gap_gbp"]), + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": optional_number(row["pe_to_obr_ratio"]), + "replay_ratio_bin": row["ratio_bin"], + } + ) + obr_rows.sort(key=lambda r: (r["fy"], r["tax_head"], r["source_row_id"])) + entry = { + "measure_key": key, + "title": measure["title"], + "measure_type": measure.get("measure_type"), + "classification": classification, + "gap_kind": measure.get("gap_kind") + if classification == "not_expressible" + else None, + "reason": measure_reason(measure), + "missing_legs": [leg for leg in measure.get("missing_legs") or [] if leg], + "construction_note": next( + ( + rows_by_id[r["source_row_id"]]["construction_note"] + for r in obr_rows + if rows_by_id[r["source_row_id"]]["construction_note"] + ), + None, + ), + "obr_rows": obr_rows, + "computed": False, + "construction": None, + "years": [], + } + found = sorted( + artifacts_by_measure.pop(key, []), key=lambda a: a["artifact"]["year"] + ) + if classification in COMPUTABLE and key in planned and found: + revision = revisions.get(key) + try: + world = construction_revisions.apply_selected_revision( + key, planned[key], revision + ) + except ValueError as exc: + raise ExportError(str(exc)) from exc + if any( + a["artifact"].get("construction_revision") != revision for a in found + ): + raise ExportError( + f"{key}: artifacts disagree on the construction revision" + ) + if "alias_of" in world: + raise ExportError(f"{key}: aliased worlds are not exported") + submitted = { + name: union_reforms( + [ + a["artifact"]["parameter_reform_routes"][name][ + "submitted_reform" + ] + for a in found + ], + f"{key} {name}", + ) + for name in ("baseline_world", "reform_world") + } + for name, field in ( + ("baseline_world", "baseline_reform"), + ("reform_world", "reform_reform"), + ): + registry_side = replay.annual_reform(world[field]) + expected = registry_side + if registry_side and revision and namespace.scenario_dated_reforms: + # revision_reform_route submits these exact fiscal windows + # when Scenario exposes statutory reprocessing. + expected = { + path: { + ( + f"{start[:4]}-04-06.{int(stop[:4]) + 1}-04-05" + if path in revision["paths"] + else window + ): value + for window, value in windows.items() + for start, stop in [window.split(".")] + } + for path, windows in registry_side.items() + } + if submitted[name] != expected or any( + a["artifact"]["parameter_reform_routes"][name]["submitted_reform"] + != expected + for a in found + ): + raise ExportError( + f"{key}: the {name} the replay submitted is not the registry's construction" + ) + if (registry_side is None) != (submitted[name] is None): + raise ExportError( + f"{key}: {name} executed a world the registry does not declare" + ) + constructions = {a["artifact"]["construction"] for a in found} + if constructions != {world["construction"]}: + raise ExportError(f"{key}: artifacts disagree on the construction") + entry_points = {} + for name in ("baseline_world", "reform_world"): + for item in found: + route = item["artifact"]["parameter_reform_routes"][name] + reform = route["submitted_reform"] + expected_point = ( + "built_simulation_scenario" + if reform and replay.UC_HEALTH_ELEMENT_PARAMETER in reform + else "construction_reform" + if reform + else "certified_current_law" + ) + if route["entry_point"] != expected_point: + raise ExportError( + f"{key}: {name} entry point does not match its submitted reform" + ) + points = { + a["artifact"]["parameter_reform_routes"][name]["entry_point"] + for a in found + } + if len(points) != 1: + raise ExportError( + f"{key}: years disagree on the {name} entry point" + ) + entry_points[name] = points.pop() + sentinels = sorted( + { + path + for a in found + for path in a["artifact"]["null_executed_as_no_limit"] + } + ) + if sentinels != sorted(set(world.get("sentinels", []))): + raise ExportError( + f"{key}: executed sentinels differ from the registry's" + ) + entry["computed"] = True + entry["construction"] = { + "kind": world["construction"], + "components": world["components"], + "baseline_world": { + "entry_point": entry_points["baseline_world"], + "submitted_reform": submitted["baseline_world"], + }, + "reform_world": { + "entry_point": entry_points["reform_world"], + "submitted_reform": submitted["reform_world"], + }, + "construction_revision": revisions.get(key), + "sentinels": sentinels, + "executor_route": executor_route( + submitted["baseline_world"], submitted["reform_world"] + ), + "head_definitions": found[0]["artifact"]["head_definitions"], + } + for item in found: + artifact = item["artifact"] + if ( + artifact["head_definitions"] + != entry["construction"]["head_definitions"] + ): + raise ExportError(f"{key}: years disagree on the fiscal heads") + entry["years"].append( + { + "year": artifact["year"], + "fy": artifact["fy_proxy"], + "measure_total_gbp": artifact["measure_total_gbp"], + "head_effects": artifact["head_effects"], + "processed_parameter_values": artifact[ + "processed_parameter_values" + ], + "artifact": item["path"], + "artifact_sha256": item["sha256"], + } + ) + elif found: + raise ExportError( + f"{key}: artifacts exist for a measure the registry does not compute" + ) + elif key in idle: + # Computable, but nothing to execute by design (worlds.not_computable). + entry["reason"] = " ".join(filter(None, [entry["reason"], idle[key]])) + if not entry["computed"] and any(r["status"] == CONSTRUCTED for r in obr_rows): + raise ExportError(f"{key}: a noncomputed measure owns constructed OBR rows") + measures.append(entry) + if artifacts_by_measure: + raise ExportError( + f"{event}: artifacts for unregistered measures {sorted(artifacts_by_measure)}" + ) + if seen_rows != set(rows_by_id): + raise ExportError(f"{event}: COMPARISON.csv rows outside the registry") + + accounts = accounting(registry) + accounts["computed"] = computed_accounting(measures, accounts["totals"]) + identity = namespace.record["identity"] + return { + "schema": SCHEMA, + "semantics": SEMANTICS, + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "event": { + "slug": event, + "name": registry["event_name"], + "registry_path": run["registry_path"], + "registry_sha256": registry_sha256, + }, + "variant": { + "variant_id": namespace.record["variant_id"], + "variant_identity_sha256": namespace.record["identity_sha256"], + "packages": { + name: package["version"] + for name, package in sorted(identity["packages"].items()) + }, + "dataset": { + field: identity["dataset"][field] + for field in ("repo_id", "path", "revision", "sha256") + }, + "data_years": namespace.record["data_years"], + "receipt_sha256": namespace.receipt_sha256, + "namespace_manifest_sha256": namespace.manifest_sha256, + "run_manifest_sha256": namespace.files[f"{event}/RUN_MANIFEST.json"], + "comparison_sha256": namespace.files[f"{event}/COMPARISON.csv"], + }, + "years": { + "requested": run["requested_years"], + "supported": run["supported_years"], + "unsupported": run["unsupported_years"], + }, + "accounting": accounts, + "measures": measures, + } + + +def write_export( + record: dict, + events: list[str] | None = None, + *, + root: Path = ROOT, + output_root: Path | None = None, +) -> Path: + """Write every event's export and the manifest of their digests.""" + namespace = Namespace(record, root=root) + available = namespace.events() + events = available if events is None else events + unknown = sorted(set(events) - set(available)) + if unknown: + raise ExportError(f"events not in {record['variant_id']}'s corpus: {unknown}") + out = (output_root or root / EXPORT_ROOT.relative_to(ROOT)) / record["variant_id"] + out.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + files = {} + for event in sorted(events): + data = canonical_json(build_event_export(namespace, event)) + (out / f"{event}.json").write_bytes(data) + files[f"{event}.json"] = sha256_bytes(data) + manifest = { + "schema": SCHEMA, + "variant_id": record["variant_id"], + "variant_identity_sha256": record["identity_sha256"], + "receipt_sha256": namespace.receipt_sha256, + "files": files, + } + (out / EXPORT_MANIFEST).write_bytes(canonical_json(manifest)) + return out + + +def installed_scenario_dated_reforms() -> bool: + """Whether the replay's own route takes the dated-reforms branch on the + installed engine: ``compute_uk_event.revision_reform_route``, given a + revision of the probe's path, rewrites its window to fiscal years only + where ``Scenario.from_reform`` keeps the dictionary in ``dated_reforms``.""" + revision = {"paths": list(CAPABILITY_PROBE)} + return replay.revision_reform_route(CAPABILITY_PROBE, revision) != CAPABILITY_PROBE + + +def scenario_capability_problems(record: dict | None = None) -> list[str]: + """How SCENARIO_DATED_REFORMS disagrees with the installed engine. + + An engine must be installed and, with a variant ``record``, be the + variant's. A recorded version must record what the replay's route does + on it. An unrecorded version is refused by the export (``Namespace``), + so it is a problem only for a variant with a committed export. + """ + try: + version = metadata.version("policyengine-uk") + except metadata.PackageNotFoundError: + return ["policyengine-uk is not installed"] + variant_id = record["variant_id"] if record else None + if record: + expected = record["identity"]["packages"]["policyengine-uk"]["version"] + if version != expected: + return [ + ( + f"{variant_id} runs policyengine-uk {expected}, but {version} " + "is installed" + ) + ] + if version not in SCENARIO_DATED_REFORMS: + if variant_id and (EXPORT_ROOT / variant_id).is_dir(): + return [ + ( + f"{variant_id} has a committed export, but " + f"SCENARIO_DATED_REFORMS does not record policyengine-uk {version}" + ) + ] + return [] + recorded = SCENARIO_DATED_REFORMS[version] + detected = installed_scenario_dated_reforms() + if detected != recorded: + return [ + ( + f"SCENARIO_DATED_REFORMS records dated_reforms={recorded} for " + f"policyengine-uk {version}, but its route gives {detected}" + ) + ] + return [] + + +def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> int: + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__.split("\n\n")[0]) + parser.add_argument("--variant", help="variant id (default: newest certified)") + parser.add_argument( + "--events", nargs="*", help="event slugs (default: every replayed event)" + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--output-root", type=Path, help="default results/uk/dashboard_export" + ) + parser.add_argument( + "--check-scenario-capability", + action="store_true", + help="check SCENARIO_DATED_REFORMS against the installed engine, for the " + "variant, and export nothing", + ) + args = parser.parse_args(argv) + document = variants.load_document() + record = ( + next((v for v in document["variants"] if v["variant_id"] == args.variant), None) + if args.variant + else default_variant(document) + ) + if record is None: + raise SystemExit(f"unknown variant {args.variant}") + if args.check_scenario_capability: + problems = scenario_capability_problems(record) + for problem in problems: + print(problem, file=sys.stderr) + if problems: + return 1 + version = metadata.version("policyengine-uk") + print( + f"policyengine-uk {version}: dated_reforms=" + f"{SCENARIO_DATED_REFORMS[version]}, as recorded" + if version in SCENARIO_DATED_REFORMS + else f"policyengine-uk {version} is not recorded; the export refuses it" + ) + return 0 + out = write_export(record, args.events, output_root=args.output_root) + print(out) + return 0 + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + sys.exit(main()) diff --git a/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/EXPORT_MANIFEST.json b/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/EXPORT_MANIFEST.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..ee5b4977 --- /dev/null +++ b/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/EXPORT_MANIFEST.json @@ -0,0 +1,14 @@ +{ + "files": { + "autumn_budget_2024.json": "2f7488193ceff37f4150c6fac1174dfae0586f5fbc8f95fdba4c56fee1ba6b61", + "autumn_budget_2025.json": "f4ad8e2db3c2bd82c9150ed29f98a5dfa5383e6da9022cc17a687bf111c9aba9", + "autumn_statement_2023.json": "692adcd52f60c615e742b4681d72d92def0d09f9242fa9e81569fe07b9cb96c2", + "spring_budget_2023.json": "97721689fc20688f4cd1b436eca97a48f5ae85c34f43914a0470cbf243428f63", + "spring_budget_2024.json": "d877e9c381b32c275fdfdc1efe8869a760a3b10673a235f1c7fbe9926a993ac4", + "spring_statement_2025.json": "93d10c52d208f0ed42704d440ca88901b787b6f1e4e577591ba050fc6565d508" + }, + "receipt_sha256": "f37d068c69253a9353c7bf891c8a44897fb4166c9550b14376dbe0fd71e6501b", + "schema": "policyengine-scorecard/uk-event-dashboard-export/v1", + "variant_id": "pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1", + "variant_identity_sha256": "ff5187900441c7605b79d19cca2424cdf4c208b75555ff50c79a0f4e95c0eb41" +} diff --git a/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2024.json b/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2024.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..3f4111c9 --- /dev/null +++ b/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2024.json @@ -0,0 +1,18553 @@ +{ + "accounting": { + "amount_basis": "All harvested GBP cells across all source heads and costing years, including zeros; this is not a one-year Budget total.", + "by_class": { + "expressible": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "0", + "measures": 0, + "net_gbp_decimal": "0", + "rows": 0, + "share_of_absolute": "0/1", + "share_of_measures": "0/1" + }, + "not_expressible": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "71094265972.6540401644", + "measures": 43, + "net_gbp_decimal": "42162693475.6774245381", + "rows": 438, + "share_of_absolute": "177735664931635100411000/1751669155466629322602007", + "share_of_measures": "43/74" + }, + "out_of_household_scope": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "477285058784.8563589679028", + "measures": 26, + "net_gbp_decimal": "-380605978576.4460772627272", + "rows": 636, + "share_of_absolute": "1193212646962140897419757/1751669155466629322602007", + "share_of_measures": "13/37" + }, + "partial": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "152288337429.1413299085", + "measures": 5, + "net_gbp_decimal": "148278589752.7765537585", + "rows": 60, + "share_of_absolute": "380720843572853324771250/1751669155466629322602007", + "share_of_measures": "5/74" + } + }, + "computed": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "144432131954.9796971285", + "by_status": { + "constructed": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "144432131954.9796971285", + "rows": 34, + "share_of_absolute": "361080329887449242821250/1751669155466629322602007" + }, + "not_computed": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "556235530231.6720319123028", + "rows": 1100, + "share_of_absolute": "1390588825579180079780757/1751669155466629322602007" + } + }, + "measures": 5, + "rows": 34, + "share_of_absolute": "361080329887449242821250/1751669155466629322602007", + "share_of_measures": "5/74" + }, + "not_expressible_by_gap_kind": { + "construction_pending": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "21453896749.52645372906", + "measures": 14, + "net_gbp_decimal": "-2502895185.88039216354", + "rows": 114, + "share_of_absolute": "53634741873816134322650/1751669155466629322602007", + "share_of_measures": "7/37" + }, + "model_or_data_gap": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "49640369223.12758643534", + "measures": 29, + "net_gbp_decimal": "44665588661.55781670164", + "rows": 324, + "share_of_absolute": "124100923057818966088350/1751669155466629322602007", + "share_of_measures": "29/74" + } + }, + "sign_convention": "positive means a gain to the Exchequer", + "totals": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "700667662186.6517290408028", + "measures": 74, + "net_gbp_decimal": "-190164695347.9920989661272", + "rows": 1134 + } + }, + "event": { + "name": "Autumn Budget 2024", + "registry_path": "data/uk/events/autumn_budget_2024_measures.json", + "registry_sha256": "89784d34920fb2d6aae702fb4028f84d7bf87f1694df77a0c9c5d255edbcdd34", + "slug": "autumn_budget_2024" + }, + "measures": [ + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: No estates, bequests, death events or agricultural/business-property inheritance-tax relief model on the certified household population. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": "model_or_data_gap", + "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__abolition_of_non_domicile_tax_status_and_introduction_of_a_residence_based_regime_remove_the_50_discount_on_fo_cdbe477d", + "measure_type": "inheritance_tax", + "missing_legs": [ + "No estates, bequests, death events or agricultural/business-property inheritance-tax relief model on the certified household population." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "No estates, bequests, death events or agricultural/business-property inheritance-tax relief model on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11574:190a6f33e6b62da4", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "No estates, bequests, death events or agricultural/business-property inheritance-tax relief model on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11580:134396a8c43f09d8", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "No estates, bequests, death events or agricultural/business-property inheritance-tax relief model on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11586:1c905b2c78e2f5ad", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Inheritance tax", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "No estates, bequests, death events or agricultural/business-property inheritance-tax relief model on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11568:9adeedf69e1fd449", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; 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Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__capital_allowances_extend_100_first_year_allowances_for_zero_emission_cars_and_electric_vehicle_charge_points__d0b8ae12", + "measure_type": "business_tax", + "missing_legs": [ + "Business/sector tax, firm allowance or credit; household income-tax spillovers in the PMD do not make the underlying business measure a household reform." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-20360355.297638115", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11820:18866a5aeb175c97", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; 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retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22992:692a692d1ff8055c", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-70008378.24635203", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11822:e2822b93fc9783ba", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-49760289.36728237", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11828:cd002ede8d1fe549", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-527924.8170332415", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22999:fd35511fd1c0c3f1", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-3226714.471281163", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22993:eb3e176f79c19b57", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "22329699.742388956", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11823:e20287d8d5ef351a", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "20449359.103514966", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11829:13644818ebc1e946", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "214807.3116904426", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23000:90c0434deae76f88", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "1326255.303754621", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22994:0b796d2bdb3de848", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "24547088.525626477", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11824:f2b09f69c5b00345", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "2665779.71937543", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11830:e522beb6b6589a52", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "27821.919759029443", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23001:b50fe1ab22ec33b1", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "172788.24642617555", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22995:2ac84a73f33fa533", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "21397881.86580441", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11825:179e8a34bf958dd7", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "2061542.6651466335", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11831:3b202caef4ab5088", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "21389.86026580066", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23002:47014792f252704e", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "133689.12878563345", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22996:bcda8411d44580cb", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2029 + } + ], + "reason": "Business/sector tax, firm allowance or credit; household income-tax spillovers in the PMD do not make the underlying business measure a household reform.", + "title": "Capital allowances: extend 100% first-year allowances for zero-emission cars and electric vehicle charge-points to 31 March 2026 for Corporation Tax and 5 April 2026 for Income Tax", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "computed": true, + "construction": { + "baseline_world": { + "entry_point": "construction_reform", + "submitted_reform": { + "gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate": { + "2024-04-06.2036-04-05": 0.2 + }, + "gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate": { + "2024-04-06.2036-04-05": 0.1 + }, + "gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate": { + "2024-04-06.2036-04-05": 0.2 + } + } + }, + "components": [ + "autumn_budget_2024__capital_gains_main_rates_and_reliefs" + ], + "construction_revision": { + "activation_fy": "2024-25", + "part_year_rule": "part_year_day_weighted", + "paths": [ + "gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate", + "gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate", + "gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate" + ], + "registry_sha256": "23993c8fbdcff319045b10bf316b29eb093c283dc6d135c430db237de0050a57", + "revision_id": "ab2024_cgt_fiscal_year_blend.v1" + }, + "executor_route": null, + "head_definitions": [ + { + "channel": "tax", + "obr_head": "Capital gains tax", + "pe_variables": [ + "capital_gains_tax" + ] + } + ], + "kind": "reversal_on_certified_world", + "reform_world": { + "entry_point": "certified_current_law", + "submitted_reform": null + }, + "sentinels": [] + }, + "construction_note": "Construction revision ab2024_cgt_fiscal_year_blend.v1 ran: Keep the installed engine's fiscal_year_blend treatment. Reverse to pre-announcement main rates for the whole of FY2024-25, represented by period 2024; FY2023-24 stays unchanged. At a statutory reprocessing entry point the annual windows are submitted as 6 April to 5 April fiscal-year windows. The engine pools gains rather than distinguishing their statutory types. Business Asset Disposal Relief and Investors' Relief changes remain unreversed. Evidence is recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__capital_gains_main_rates_and_reliefs", + "measure_type": "capital_gains_tax", + "missing_legs": [ + "Business Asset Disposal Relief and Investors' Relief rates/qualifying gains are not separately represented.", + "The pinned main-rate parameters start on 2025-04-06, although the announcement starts on 2024-10-30. Government parameter processing samples 30 April and applies that value across each annual period, so the first higher processed year is 2025. No onset repair is applied.", + "CGT aggregates do not distinguish residential, BADR, IR or other gain types; the engine parameter descriptions mark CGT as under active development." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Business Asset Disposal Relief and Investors' Relief rates/qualifying gains are not separately represented.; The pinned main-rate parameters start on 2025-04-06, although the announcement starts on 2024-10-30. Government parameter processing samples 30 April and applies that value across each annual period, so the first higher processed year is 2025. No onset repair is applied.; CGT aggregates do not distinguish residential, BADR, IR or other gain types; the engine parameter descriptions mark CGT as under active development.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 956314309.095192, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 956314309.095192, + "replay_ratio_bin": "obr_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11682:73295721bdfdb9e8", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "45894340.401895285", + "reason": "source head 'Income tax' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11694:ade1673d32f6604b", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "881470.0926138684", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22835:93eff38f9e206ebc", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "4502630.249669727", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22829:48aea91ecc2734f1", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "36706934.78603259", + "reason": "source head 'Stamp duty' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11688:dcd2e2e6301193f3", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Stamp duty", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "1005043228.7250798", + "reason": "Business Asset Disposal Relief and Investors' Relief rates/qualifying gains are not separately represented.; The pinned main-rate parameters start on 2025-04-06, although the announcement starts on 2024-10-30. Government parameter processing samples 30 April and applies that value across each annual period, so the first higher processed year is 2025. No onset repair is applied.; CGT aggregates do not distinguish residential, BADR, IR or other gain types; the engine parameter descriptions mark CGT as under active development.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 1316583247.3650844, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 2.3099767350656153, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 2321626476.090164, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_at_least_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11683:b9096ecd110093bf", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "448727476.6050552", + "reason": "source head 'Income tax' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11695:6d29375672cd45e7", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "1410735.2449058858", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22836:46b312b678d3c12e", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "25579185.297371842", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22830:1b3ca3ad7932d614", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-40935198.754274525", + "reason": "source head 'Stamp duty' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11689:8192b33705abc153", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Stamp duty", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "95778978.2266941", + "reason": "Business Asset Disposal Relief and Investors' Relief rates/qualifying gains are not separately represented.; The pinned main-rate parameters start on 2025-04-06, although the announcement starts on 2024-10-30. Government parameter processing samples 30 April and applies that value across each annual period, so the first higher processed year is 2025. No onset repair is applied.; CGT aggregates do not distinguish residential, BADR, IR or other gain types; the engine parameter descriptions mark CGT as under active development.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 2302078312.100893, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 25.03531917674281, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 2397857290.327587, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_at_least_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11684:0d39628e9b763f67", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "1262326238.2390866", + "reason": "source head 'Income tax' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11696:84f6e0e5fe5ec657", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "5757889.723234422", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22837:75821b59c0b191da", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "73870561.55572048", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22831:ab1c8743daadde1c", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-65673194.77414581", + "reason": "source head 'Stamp duty' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11690:cfacef00089fe7d2", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Stamp duty", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-75842400.81283405", + "reason": "Business Asset Disposal Relief and Investors' Relief rates/qualifying gains are not separately represented.; The pinned main-rate parameters start on 2025-04-06, although the announcement starts on 2024-10-30. Government parameter processing samples 30 April and applies that value across each annual period, so the first higher processed year is 2025. No onset repair is applied.; CGT aggregates do not distinguish residential, BADR, IR or other gain types; the engine parameter descriptions mark CGT as under active development.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 2560514264.4748445, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": -32.7609864275493, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 2484671863.66201, + "replay_ratio_bin": "opposite_sign", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11685:440412b0fb8c6e2d", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "1388465535.769306", + "reason": "source head 'Income tax' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11697:b41b55d5b8cbd0c7", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "6697896.998231041", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22838:b0c109139b2c7337", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "82106051.6413076", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22832:9f4c74a62730d0a2", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-51430908.84458069", + "reason": "source head 'Stamp duty' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11691:2bcdf86f45b6b126", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Stamp duty", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "755655285.3792045", + "reason": "Business Asset Disposal Relief and Investors' Relief rates/qualifying gains are not separately represented.; The pinned main-rate parameters start on 2025-04-06, although the announcement starts on 2024-10-30. Government parameter processing samples 30 April and applies that value across each annual period, so the first higher processed year is 2025. No onset repair is applied.; CGT aggregates do not distinguish residential, BADR, IR or other gain types; the engine parameter descriptions mark CGT as under active development.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 1816747836.4530556, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 3.4042018518290007, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 2572403121.83226, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_at_least_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11686:9ceb140875d859b8", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "1388878096.7939453", + "reason": "source head 'Income tax' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11698:85efd8e5130ecc7d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "6539645.430615809", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22839:e2b393c5a46deff3", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "81868169.5501212", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22833:50327aa26d0c6316", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-54295632.87241625", + "reason": "source head 'Stamp duty' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11692:6df82bc59b0bf861", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Stamp duty", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "985880688.8779727", + "reason": "Business Asset Disposal Relief and Investors' Relief rates/qualifying gains are not separately represented.; The pinned main-rate parameters start on 2025-04-06, although the announcement starts on 2024-10-30. Government parameter processing samples 30 April and applies that value across each annual period, so the first higher processed year is 2025. No onset repair is applied.; CGT aggregates do not distinguish residential, BADR, IR or other gain types; the engine parameter descriptions mark CGT as under active development.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 1674408052.0773191, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 2.698388122383203, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 2660288740.9552917, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_at_least_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11687:f738e039412d9872", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "1470607578.9952433", + "reason": "source head 'Income tax' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11699:6ff71275479301e4", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "6848598.70149791", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22840:1197e330a3c46ef4", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "86660781.2404471", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22834:74c3bd563eca97a5", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-58683359.37907022", + "reason": "source head 'Stamp duty' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11693:fce3f1c54885e725", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Stamp duty", + "year": 2029 + } + ], + "reason": "Business Asset Disposal Relief and Investors' Relief rates/qualifying gains are not separately represented. The pinned main-rate parameters start on 2025-04-06, although the announcement starts on 2024-10-30. Government parameter processing samples 30 April and applies that value across each annual period, so the first higher processed year is 2025. No onset repair is applied. CGT aggregates do not distinguish residential, BADR, IR or other gain types; the engine parameter descriptions mark CGT as under active development.", + "title": "Capital Gains Tax: Increase the main rates of CGT to 18% and 24% from 30 October 2024, and the Business Asset Disposal Relief (BADR) and Investors' Relief (IR) rate to 14% from 6 April 2025 and to 18% from 6 April 2026", + "years": [ + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2024/autumn_budget_2024__capital_gains_main_rates_and_reliefs_2024.json", + "artifact_sha256": "5f7665fd7d63710d7dc311f2a0a502073f1d4a49b90b1a8b92437e114943bd5e", + "fy": "2024-25", + "head_effects": { + "capital_gains_tax": 956314309.095192 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": 956314309.095192, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate": { + "intended": 0.2, + "processed": 0.2 + }, + "gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate": { + "intended": 0.1, + "processed": 0.1 + }, + "gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate": { + "intended": 0.2, + "processed": 0.2 + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate": { + "intended": 0.21731506849315071, + "processed": 0.21731506849315071 + }, + "gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate": { + "intended": 0.13463013698630139, + "processed": 0.13463013698630139 + }, + "gov.hmrc.cgt.higher_rate": { + "intended": 0.21731506849315071, + "processed": 0.21731506849315071 + } + } + }, + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2024/autumn_budget_2024__capital_gains_main_rates_and_reliefs_2025.json", + "artifact_sha256": "555a99a755e55b48db107cf5e6432f43e2e12f7608e5bb8a279e0b69abc38740", + "fy": "2025-26", + "head_effects": { + "capital_gains_tax": 2321626476.090164 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": 2321626476.090164, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.hmrc.cgt.additional_rate": { + "intended": 0.2, + "processed": 0.2 + }, + "gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate": 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Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": "construction_pending", + "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__private_intermittent_securities_and_capital_exchange_system_pisces_exempt_transfers_of_shares_made_on_a_pisces_b1128dcb", + "measure_type": "other", + "missing_legs": [ + "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-59815.37671875", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11880:40581872ecc9b1b7", + 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The formula multiplies imputed attending children by private_school_fees, rate and private_school_vat_basis. VAT refunds source rows remain outside household scope. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__private_school_vat_20pct", + "measure_type": "value_added_tax", + "missing_legs": [ + "The engine uses imputed school attendance and average fees, not observed establishment-level education/boarding supplies.", + "Input-VAT recovery, state-school spending response and attendance/fee behaviour are absent from this gross private-school VAT leg." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "458469390.546581", + "reason": "reform and baseline worlds identical in FY 2024-25, a year the measure is in force (commences FY 2024-25): the construction does not carry it in this year, so no zero is asserted", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11616:7ec5266dd314c230", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "VAT", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "136000000", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; 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Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__right_to_buy_reduce_discounts_and_allow_local_authorities_to_retain_full_receipts_from_21_november_2024_aa4bd2fc", + "measure_type": "scope", + "missing_legs": [ + "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23027:e2fdc539bac82bd3", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Locally-financed capital expenditure", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; 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retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23029:bb09a7e7e5770d0a", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Locally-financed capital expenditure", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "10000000", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23035:e438ff3527604753", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Locally-financed current expenditure", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-216000000", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; 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"construction_revision": null, + "executor_route": null, + "head_definitions": [ + { + "channel": "tax", + "obr_head": "Stamp duty", + "pe_variables": [ + "stamp_duty_land_tax" + ] + } + ], + "kind": "forward_delta_on_certified_world", + "reform_world": { + "entry_point": "construction_reform", + "submitted_reform": { + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.residential.purchase.additional.rate[0].rate": { + "2025-01-01.2035-12-31": 0.05 + }, + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.residential.purchase.additional.rate[1].rate": { + "2025-01-01.2035-12-31": 0.07 + }, + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.residential.purchase.additional.rate[2].rate": { + "2025-01-01.2035-12-31": 0.1 + }, + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.residential.purchase.additional.rate[3].rate": { + "2025-01-01.2035-12-31": 0.15 + }, + "gov.hmrc.stamp_duty.residential.purchase.additional.rate[4].rate": { + "2025-01-01.2035-12-31": 0.17 + } + } + }, + "sentinels": [] + }, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: The pin still has the 3% surcharge scale, so the announcement is a forward 2pp increase to every marginal bracket. Government parameter processing samples 30 April and applies that value across each annual period; the October2024 onset is therefore absent from processed 2024 and present throughout processed 2025. Main-home rates and thresholds are retained. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__sdlt_additional_dwelling_surcharge_2pp", + "measure_type": "stamp_duty_land_tax", + "missing_legs": [ + "Corporate purchasers, housing transactions response, and OBR CGT/IHT interactions are outside this household SDLT rate leg.", + "The certified population must contain additional-home purchase values; absence yields an inert leg rather than an inferred national tax base." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-22084526", + "reason": "source head 'Capital gains tax' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11652:27a50b13291133b1", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-6972326.4", + "reason": "source head 'Inheritance tax' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11658:7bd2fb01df3101cc", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Inheritance tax", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "2722449.707150902", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; 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Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": "construction_pending", + "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2024__veterans_extend_employer_nics_relief_for_hiring_veterans_for_one_year_from_6_april_2025_759a69c8", + "measure_type": "tax_benefit", + "missing_legs": [ + "The relevant liability exists, but this announcement's counterfactual path or targeted eligibility has not been established on the certified population; no guessed parameter or baseline." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "The relevant liability exists, but this announcement's counterfactual path or targeted eligibility has not been established on the certified population; no guessed parameter or baseline.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11844:a961ce0787113866", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-3600000", + "reason": "The relevant liability exists, but this announcement's counterfactual path or targeted eligibility has not been established on the certified population; 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no guessed parameter or baseline.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11847:a551e116e169b49b", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "The relevant liability exists, but this announcement's counterfactual path or targeted eligibility has not been established on the certified population; no guessed parameter or baseline.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11848:a40b52bb74a2d439", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "The relevant liability exists, but this announcement's counterfactual path or targeted eligibility has not been established on the certified population; no guessed parameter or baseline.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11849:ce1bc127a1a65b99", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2029 + } + ], + "reason": "The relevant liability exists, but this announcement's counterfactual path or targeted eligibility has not been established on the certified population; no guessed parameter or baseline.", + "title": "Veterans: Extend employer NICs relief for hiring veterans for one year from 6 April 2025", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "computed": true, + "construction": { + "baseline_world": { + "entry_point": "construction_reform", + "submitted_reform": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.require_benefits": { + "2024-01-01.2035-12-31": false + } + } + }, + "components": [ + "autumn_budget_2024__winter_fuel_means_test" + ], + "construction_revision": null, + "executor_route": null, + "head_definitions": [ + { + "channel": "spending", + "obr_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "pe_variables": [ + "winter_fuel_allowance" + ] + } + ], + "kind": "reversal_on_certified_world", + "reform_world": { + "entry_point": "certified_current_law", + "submitted_reform": null + }, + "sentinels": [] + }, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Restore universal age-based eligibility by require_benefits=False. 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Retaining that policy gives the remaining certified-world marginal savings, rather than the original 2024 announcement baseline.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -1202539074.5540545, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.12733013457615783, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 175460925.4459455, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_below_0.5", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22854:edbde987f66af165", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "136000000", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22861:0f81af8bde9e95a0", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "1420000000", + "reason": "The engine excludes Scotland; its qualifying-benefit list omits Universal Credit.; The certified 2025+ world includes the later £35,000 England/Wales income passport. 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Retaining that policy gives the remaining certified-world marginal savings, rather than the original 2024 announcement baseline.", + "title": "Winter Fuel Payments: Target payments at recipients of Pension Credit and certain other means-tested benefits from winter 2024-25", + "years": [ + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2024/autumn_budget_2024__winter_fuel_means_test_2024.json", + "artifact_sha256": "23b667afa749e8a7cfaaf4014c6d877fd951324cb35950622e9941c1bf9fc74c", + "fy": "2024-25", + "head_effects": { + "winter_fuel_allowance": 1477704209.4028206 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": 1477704209.4028206, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.require_benefits": { + "intended": false, + "processed": false + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.require_benefits": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + } + }, + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2024/autumn_budget_2024__winter_fuel_means_test_2025.json", + "artifact_sha256": "85a1a58845837e4ebdca5799a81f3782319702fcde8fd470119553b274c39629", + "fy": "2025-26", + "head_effects": { + "winter_fuel_allowance": 175460925.4459455 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": 175460925.4459455, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.require_benefits": { + "intended": false, + "processed": false + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.require_benefits": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + } + }, + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2024/autumn_budget_2024__winter_fuel_means_test_2026.json", + "artifact_sha256": "ec70a261e58963c937ec5b8798b96a44ffffd5158e8587073c4cef0cd232d84f", + "fy": "2026-27", + "head_effects": { + "winter_fuel_allowance": 184684987.91397357 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": 184684987.91397357, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.require_benefits": { + "intended": false, + "processed": false + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.require_benefits": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + } + }, + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2024/autumn_budget_2024__winter_fuel_means_test_2027.json", + "artifact_sha256": "136702aa415195bf8acb6148d5ada88254a53838d4080a37886ce8055269e194", + "fy": "2027-28", + "head_effects": { + "winter_fuel_allowance": 216206005.17124224 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": 216206005.17124224, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.require_benefits": { + "intended": false, + "processed": false + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.require_benefits": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + } + }, + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2024/autumn_budget_2024__winter_fuel_means_test_2028.json", + "artifact_sha256": "7824c8969d74af4ab6c7fe9a627303849552db3a15c1eb73544b0c9caaad7744", + "fy": "2028-29", + "head_effects": { + "winter_fuel_allowance": 217874757.0607648 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": 217874757.0607648, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.require_benefits": { + "intended": false, + "processed": false + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.require_benefits": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + } + }, + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2024/autumn_budget_2024__winter_fuel_means_test_2029.json", + "artifact_sha256": "2218497ae40700866633b825c6f8e750191678ac829093d748a7f2ca244e9f4d", + "fy": "2029-30", + "head_effects": { + "winter_fuel_allowance": 228829386.94062686 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": 228829386.94062686, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.require_benefits": { + "intended": false, + "processed": false + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.require_benefits": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + } + }, + "year": 2029 + } + ] + } + ], + "schema": "policyengine-scorecard/uk-event-dashboard-export/v1", + "semantics": "Each computed measure is costed on the replay's certified model and data, holding the rest of the law at what that engine treats as current law. A reversal_on_certified_world measure is in current law: its baseline world undoes it (baseline_world.submitted_reform) and its reform world is current law. A forward_delta_on_certified_world measure is not in current law: its baseline world is current law and its reform world adds it (reform_world.submitted_reform). measure_total_gbp is the sum of the declared fiscal heads' Exchequer effects, positive meaning a gain to the Exchequer; replay year Y is calendar year Y, the proxy for fiscal year Y-(Y+1). These are not the estimates made at the time of the event.", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "variant": { + "comparison_sha256": "837d2fb8540f535c24bdcd31faa8bcb2fdeb9c5e3e61431c035d247676e543e1", + "data_years": [ + 2024, + 2025, + 2026, + 2027, + 2028, + 2029, + 2030, + 2031, + 2032 + ], + "dataset": { + "path": "enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5", + "repo_id": "policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private", + "revision": "1.58.1", + "sha256": "056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784" + }, + "namespace_manifest_sha256": "738aa0e0b8100fbbcaa5dcedd07c7afd5ac7e597ce2a9a38b3fa40b1a3193f72", + "packages": { + "policyengine": "6.9.0", + "policyengine-core": "3.33.0", + "policyengine-uk": "2.130.1" + }, + "receipt_sha256": "f37d068c69253a9353c7bf891c8a44897fb4166c9550b14376dbe0fd71e6501b", + "run_manifest_sha256": "d468deabd1deba27f26ae56406f078daa9467fd5b41b58aaed19ace5e721d515", + "variant_id": "pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1", + "variant_identity_sha256": "ff5187900441c7605b79d19cca2424cdf4c208b75555ff50c79a0f4e95c0eb41" + }, + "years": { + "requested": [ + 2024, + 2025, + 2026, + 2027, + 2028, + 2029 + ], + "supported": [ + 2024, + 2025, + 2026, + 2027, + 2028, + 2029 + ], + "unsupported": [] + } +} diff --git a/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2025.json b/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2025.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..39b49cd3 --- /dev/null +++ b/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2025.json @@ -0,0 +1,25414 @@ +{ + "accounting": { + "amount_basis": "All harvested GBP cells across all source heads and costing years, including zeros; this is not a one-year Budget total.", + "by_class": { + "expressible": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "1398375200", + "measures": 1, + "net_gbp_decimal": "1398375200", + "rows": 6, + "share_of_absolute": "69918760000000000000000/17144348361805199455366673", + "share_of_measures": "1/105" + }, + "not_expressible": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "82650161765.6234939079467", + "measures": 51, + "net_gbp_decimal": "-8197572054.6310941637533", + "rows": 510, + "share_of_absolute": "4132508088281174695397335/17144348361805199455366673", + "share_of_measures": "17/35" + }, + "out_of_household_scope": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "185626172735.70603506388676", + "measures": 45, + "net_gbp_decimal": "7179938073.91248288155456", + "rows": 858, + "share_of_absolute": "9281308636785301753194338/17144348361805199455366673", + "share_of_measures": "3/7" + }, + "partial": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "73212257534.7744601355", + "measures": 8, + "net_gbp_decimal": "19725928336.4772127795", + "rows": 138, + "share_of_absolute": "3660612876738723006775000/17144348361805199455366673", + "share_of_measures": "8/105" + } + }, + "computed": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "71331266632.022336429", + "by_status": { + "constructed": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "71331266632.022336429", + "rows": 90, + "share_of_absolute": "3566563331601116821450000/17144348361805199455366673" + }, + "not_computed": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "271555700604.08165267833346", + "rows": 1422, + "share_of_absolute": "13577785030204082633916673/17144348361805199455366673" + } + }, + "measures": 9, + "rows": 90, + "share_of_absolute": "3566563331601116821450000/17144348361805199455366673", + "share_of_measures": "3/35" + }, + "not_expressible_by_gap_kind": { + "construction_pending": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "66119177461.1930945979367", + "measures": 36, + "net_gbp_decimal": "-18920621442.7127413960633", + "rows": 366, + "share_of_absolute": "3305958873059654729896835/17144348361805199455366673", + "share_of_measures": "12/35" + }, + "model_or_data_gap": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "16530984304.43039931001", + "measures": 15, + "net_gbp_decimal": "10723049388.08164723231", + "rows": 144, + "share_of_absolute": "826549215221519965500500/17144348361805199455366673", + "share_of_measures": "1/7" + } + }, + "sign_convention": "positive means a gain to the Exchequer", + "totals": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "342886967236.10398910733346", + "measures": 105, + "net_gbp_decimal": "20106669555.75860149730126", + "rows": 1512 + } + }, + "event": { + "name": "Autumn Budget 2025", + "registry_path": "data/uk/events/autumn_budget_2025_measures.json", + "registry_sha256": "3da50f9af6c7986fd5fe453ae2dac34275f319d1f2ccd441e3c438f51a18656e", + "slug": "autumn_budget_2025" + }, + "measures": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads. 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the additional rate was not changed by this measure. PE maps Income Tax directly and retains the required broad NICs aggregate, but cross-tax, departmental-spending, and block-grant heads are outside this static construction. Construction from the OBR costings lane (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml, #56). Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "ab2025__dividend_rates_plus_2pp", + "measure_type": "income_tax", + "missing_legs": [ + "Reverses the certified ordinary/basic and upper/higher dividend rates to 8.75% and 33.75%; the additional rate was not changed by this measure. PE maps Income Tax directly and retains the required broad NICs aggregate, but cross-tax, departmental-spending, and block-grant heads are outside this static construction." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "source head 'Capital gains tax' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12324:6e8044dc6b149536", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12312:a797de74813b43ad", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Reverses the certified ordinary/basic and upper/higher dividend rates to 8.75% and 33.75%; the additional rate was not changed by this measure. PE maps Income Tax directly and retains the required broad NICs aggregate, but cross-tax, departmental-spending, and block-grant heads are outside this static construction.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "both_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12306:73a2ece6287dce1c", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Reverses the certified ordinary/basic and upper/higher dividend rates to 8.75% and 33.75%; the additional rate was not changed by this measure. PE maps Income Tax directly and retains the required broad NICs aggregate, but cross-tax, departmental-spending, and block-grant heads are outside this static construction.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "both_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12318:715477c9bb8d949a", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23951:caaf431ee96d9479", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23957:e09736297edd4051", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "source head 'Capital gains tax' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12325:2be73b17d5498ede", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-57881325.340427674", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12313:b2511408029ed0d7", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "335597518.39493275", + "reason": "Reverses the certified ordinary/basic and upper/higher dividend rates to 8.75% and 33.75%; the additional rate was not changed by this measure. PE maps Income Tax directly and retains the required broad NICs aggregate, but cross-tax, departmental-spending, and block-grant heads are outside this static construction.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 591096800.9323988, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 2.761326495378888, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 926694319.3273315, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_at_least_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12307:90ac5224d0623421", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Reverses the certified ordinary/basic and upper/higher dividend rates to 8.75% and 33.75%; the additional rate was not changed by this measure. 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"obr_pmd_nov2025:12596:dabb2ee85da800d3", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Fuel Duty", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12602:e12af7b2db6a5f0d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Vehicle excise duty", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-25000000", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12597:754e32c16ab051e1", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Fuel Duty", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "1123000000", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12603:16309c752eed5573", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Vehicle excise duty", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-31000000", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the 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emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "title": "Electric Vehicle Excise Duty (eVED): Introduce a new mileage supplement for electric and plug-in hybrid cars from 1 April 2028", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": "model_or_data_gap", + "measure_key": "ab2025__expensive_car_supplement_threshold_for_zevs_50000", + "measure_type": "transport", + "missing_legs": [ + "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "36584.32782322052", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12606:0fd63c032e08fd85", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Vehicle excise duty", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-50867543.285919964", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12607:0cba3cf56f4e55a0", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Vehicle excise duty", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-108327908.69465862", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12608:87a896c8f622ed03", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Vehicle excise duty", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-189276601.77268082", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12609:3da89917c4d23081", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Vehicle excise duty", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-326149112.78342515", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12610:154b68d14ab926d0", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Vehicle excise duty", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-505027791.2997462", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12611:f7317235f62ea7b7", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Vehicle excise duty", + "year": 2030 + } + ], + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "title": "Support for British automotive industry: Increase the Expensive Car Supplement threshold for zero emission vehicles to £50,000, from 1 April 2026", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "ab2025__fisheries_and_coastal_growth_fund", + "measure_type": "scope", + "missing_legs": [ + "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23753:ff8478d2fe8e538e", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23759:449b7ff1f383ad11", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-12629508.947741324", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23754:2c1e5cd6fe493ee1", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-14297557.299329799", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23760:3fbba9ca33b53b03", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-13463533.123535562", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23755:8f3ce8ae300cd385", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-20374019.151544962", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; 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retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23757:eb47248b610c2b68", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-28356821.977004103", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23763:c4ef257a3c6b8bc2", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-14767363.0912845", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23758:6bb3a0e7599e839f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2030 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-10365729.042014103", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23764:fde1ed77dba77588", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2030 + } + ], + "reason": "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads.", + "title": "Fisheries and Coastal Growth: Launch a fund to support the domestic fishing sector and coastal communities", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: The announcement is a within-year path (per the PMD title: the 5p cut extended to 31 August 2026, then 1p, 2p and 2p increases from 1 September 2026, 1 December 2026 and 1 March 2027). The replay executor takes only annual windows read at 1 January (pipeline/compute_uk_event.py annual_reform), which cannot express it, so an annual counterfactual is not guessed. #136 records a dated pre-Budget path from the OBR pre-measures forecast (ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27 in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json) for a later part-year construction. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": "construction_pending", + "measure_key": "ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27", + "measure_type": "fuel_duty", + "missing_legs": [ + "The announcement is a within-year path (per the PMD title: the 5p cut extended to 31 August 2026, then 1p, 2p and 2p increases from 1 September 2026, 1 December 2026 and 1 March 2027). The replay executor takes only annual windows read at 1 January (pipeline/compute_uk_event.py annual_reform), which cannot express it, so an annual counterfactual is not guessed. #136 records a dated pre-Budget path from the OBR pre-measures forecast (ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27 in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json) for a later part-year construction." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-47000000", + "reason": "The announcement is a within-year path (per the PMD title: the 5p cut extended to 31 August 2026, then 1p, 2p and 2p increases from 1 September 2026, 1 December 2026 and 1 March 2027). The replay executor takes only annual windows read at 1 January (pipeline/compute_uk_event.py annual_reform), which cannot express it, so an annual counterfactual is not guessed. #136 records a dated pre-Budget path from the OBR pre-measures forecast (ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27 in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json) for a later part-year construction.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12078:7816dd924efe1592", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Fuel Duty", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-2369000000", + "reason": "The announcement is a within-year path (per the PMD title: the 5p cut extended to 31 August 2026, then 1p, 2p and 2p increases from 1 September 2026, 1 December 2026 and 1 March 2027). The replay executor takes only annual windows read at 1 January (pipeline/compute_uk_event.py annual_reform), which cannot express it, so an annual counterfactual is not guessed. #136 records a dated pre-Budget path from the OBR pre-measures forecast (ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27 in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json) for a later part-year construction.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12079:9101b30033fb1a66", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Fuel Duty", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-856000000", + "reason": "The announcement is a within-year path (per the PMD title: the 5p cut extended to 31 August 2026, then 1p, 2p and 2p increases from 1 September 2026, 1 December 2026 and 1 March 2027). The replay executor takes only annual windows read at 1 January (pipeline/compute_uk_event.py annual_reform), which cannot express it, so an annual counterfactual is not guessed. #136 records a dated pre-Budget path from the OBR pre-measures forecast (ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27 in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json) for a later part-year construction.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12080:d8fe3fe28bc27f6d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Fuel Duty", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-857000000", + "reason": "The announcement is a within-year path (per the PMD title: the 5p cut extended to 31 August 2026, then 1p, 2p and 2p increases from 1 September 2026, 1 December 2026 and 1 March 2027). The replay executor takes only annual windows read at 1 January (pipeline/compute_uk_event.py annual_reform), which cannot express it, so an annual counterfactual is not guessed. #136 records a dated pre-Budget path from the OBR pre-measures forecast (ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27 in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json) for a later part-year construction.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12081:9ac514abf27653f6", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Fuel Duty", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-850000000", + "reason": "The announcement is a within-year path (per the PMD title: the 5p cut extended to 31 August 2026, then 1p, 2p and 2p increases from 1 September 2026, 1 December 2026 and 1 March 2027). The replay executor takes only annual windows read at 1 January (pipeline/compute_uk_event.py annual_reform), which cannot express it, so an annual counterfactual is not guessed. #136 records a dated pre-Budget path from the OBR pre-measures forecast (ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27 in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json) for a later part-year construction.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12082:bfb20b4a543d6d4d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Fuel Duty", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-841000000", + "reason": "The announcement is a within-year path (per the PMD title: the 5p cut extended to 31 August 2026, then 1p, 2p and 2p increases from 1 September 2026, 1 December 2026 and 1 March 2027). The replay executor takes only annual windows read at 1 January (pipeline/compute_uk_event.py annual_reform), which cannot express it, so an annual counterfactual is not guessed. #136 records a dated pre-Budget path from the OBR pre-measures forecast (ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27 in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json) for a later part-year construction.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12083:8850f81a896a7ecb", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Fuel Duty", + "year": 2030 + } + ], + "reason": "The announcement is a within-year path (per the PMD title: the 5p cut extended to 31 August 2026, then 1p, 2p and 2p increases from 1 September 2026, 1 December 2026 and 1 March 2027). The replay executor takes only annual windows read at 1 January (pipeline/compute_uk_event.py annual_reform), which cannot express it, so an annual counterfactual is not guessed. #136 records a dated pre-Budget path from the OBR pre-measures forecast (ab2025__fuel_duty_freeze_extension_2026_27 in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json) for a later part-year construction.", + "title": "Fuel Duty: Cancel uprating for 2026-27; extend the 5p cut in rates to 31 August 2026, then increase by 1p from 1 September 2026, 2p from 1 December 2026, and 2p from 1 March 2027", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": "model_or_data_gap", + "measure_key": "ab2025__fya_zero_emission_cars_and_charge_points_extended", + "measure_type": "transport", + "missing_legs": [ + "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-6050858.593565048", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12630:b643cbc91f84ddd9", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12624:44c18f9edc576e4c", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24071:e09de58693dad915", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24077:800a5d44ca5d52e9", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-142760757.7715661", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12631:067b65ed2d7b72bd", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12625:8313f00454103626", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24072:f0506140ff20c68d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24078:a7d549b89089b76f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-67327685.30651638", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12632:4f2d0e9bff6cc0db", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-28065609.207119796", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12626:0f0ccb80c9800320", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-297007.76292152196", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24073:35283f4106e8c037", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-1929126.6276523506", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24079:687366ac07cbf4ba", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "8208292.446737481", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12633:9e44d2a5ee1e4fb7", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "6521188.123813903", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12627:b7b7e37787bd5038", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "68662.84765450995", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24074:5ed11dcb88596087", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "446557.7916912001", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24080:da50c839abf55bb4", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "17574788.75169031", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12634:38b734e118ddd810", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "1746119.4074445537", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12628:b14116974b97329f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "18327.60750451558", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24075:dfbe5f6dc2664eb9", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "119178.74815453064", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24081:160559ff913f96f0", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "20733360.360543724", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12635:1305ee6a1d09a9f1", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2030 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "2041769.277421873", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12629:83d921567056053d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2030 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "21320.699066296947", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24076:ae5f68f5a2be8e68", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2030 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "138851.87701656672", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24082:1d0334c85e10013f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2030 + } + ], + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "title": "Support for British automotive industry: Extend 100% first-year allowances for zero-emission cars and electric vehicle charge points to 31 March 2027 for Corporation Tax and 5 April 2027 for Income Tax", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; 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"replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23499:5986899b60513012", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Energy bills subsidies", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23500:e22dca1648c0d725", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Energy bills subsidies", + "year": 2030 + } + ], + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "title": "Renewables Obligation: Fund 75% of the domestic share of the Renewables Obligation via the Exchequer over the Spending Review period", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "computed": true, + "construction": { + "baseline_world": { + "entry_point": "construction_reform", + "submitted_reform": { + "gov.contrib.behavioral_responses.salary_sacrifice_broad_base_haircut_rate": { + "2029-01-01.2030-12-31": 0.0 + }, + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.salary_sacrifice_pension_cap": { + "2029-01-01.2030-12-31": 1e+100 + } + } + }, + "components": [ + "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000" + ], + "construction_revision": null, + "executor_route": null, + "head_definitions": [ + { + "channel": "tax", + "obr_head": "Income tax", + "pe_variables": [ + "income_tax" + ] + }, + { + "channel": "tax", + "obr_head": "NICs", + "pe_variables": [ + "ni_class_1_employee", + "ni_class_1_employer", + "ni_class_4" + ] + } + ], + "kind": "reversal_on_certified_world", + "reform_world": { + "entry_point": "certified_current_law", + "submitted_reform": null + }, + "sentinels": [] + }, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce. Construction from the OBR costings lane (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml, #56). Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "ab2025__salary_sacrifice_pension_nics_cap_2000", + "measure_type": "income_tax", + "missing_legs": [ + "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12348:933804c346b7051f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "both_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12336:7845fbf6ff26f361", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "both_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12342:8f33b3b6f2b603fd", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23963:1918b5c36770a0f5", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23969:251e748ad043dffa", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "538554.0185143711", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12349:62c228b05eaaf660", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-25370811.47955587", + "reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 25370811.47955587, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": -0.0, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "pe_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12337:3b045b83864340cb", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-10729860.902800936", + "reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 10729860.902800936, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": -0.0, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "pe_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12343:b79b48811830e061", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-270297.92712643027", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23964:2443fe5bded00bd3", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-1748761.99096802", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23970:3ec40cddcc137aad", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "807831.0277715565", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12350:73024e01bfa0eb7b", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-38102239.65153843", + "reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 38102239.65153843, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": -0.0, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "pe_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12338:97e677e9d5b1787d", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-16095413.675439086", + "reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 16095413.675439086, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": -0.0, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "pe_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12344:4e1c69b7573ca567", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-403221.639611952", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23965:7a50110b34dcfda3", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-2619007.645354344", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23971:9ccbfc7e5a8ec42d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "1077108.0370287423", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12351:0722288bec0713d2", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-50783026.3893156", + "reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 50783026.3893156, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": -0.0, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "pe_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12339:f1cbe0cc8417d518", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-21459998.959731616", + "reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 21459998.959731616, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": -0.0, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "pe_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12345:62f5602cdc68a152", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-534704.2806005152", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23966:68d7c7b9372ff8ee", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-3477519.079229659", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23972:f23aa7a5db4c06fc", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-176809063.07459888", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12352:de2a74b6a1944c9b", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "1390554382.340003", + "reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -1271369183.9628057, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.0857105625575278, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 119185198.37719727, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_below_0.5", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12340:56a6872c6215ff54", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "3522669371.413509", + "reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -1391384666.9881835, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.6050197959878717, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 2131284704.4253254, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_0.5_to_0.8", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12346:3b87f6a01f129a2e", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "14595528.132013462", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23967:c98aa1d14ad9fd8e", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "94910193.32441647", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23973:beed70e727200ebb", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-177256504.03374776", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12353:cddf67051176b3d2", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2030 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-714491346.3497609", + "reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 927608546.9632863, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": -0.2982782110690524, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 213117200.6135254, + "replay_ratio_bin": "opposite_sign", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12341:ce174c39c117892d", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2030 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "3531429304.873591", + "reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. The certified formula otherwise embeds that behavioural incidence assumption, and the OBR scores small pre-2029 effects that the direct PE lever cannot produce.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -1402273287.4509664, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.6029162227555448, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 2129156017.4226246, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_0.5_to_0.8", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12347:687b6f32b91450d1", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2030 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-7460909.099500101", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23968:50cda063301b35eb", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2030 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-48589458.980413295", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23974:5b32bac74f033733", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2030 + } + ], + "reason": "PE's exact pre-policy cap is infinity, which standard JSON cannot retain in the required run artifact. This construction uses a finite 1e100 cap, above any modeled contribution, and sets the model's fixed 0.16% broad-base pay-haircut response to zero; code inspection verifies that this leaves salary sacrifice uncapped on the modeled data. 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programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12399:cdb293b295e14731", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-13041881.938704088", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12405:f17d0650bd92d32c", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Inheritance tax", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "160000000", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12400:48310875da396b66", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-17969214.271139193", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12406:549beab47c9a067f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Inheritance tax", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "137000000", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12401:b52a2882a5fa8e62", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2030 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-29294012.58932518", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12407:5537f6d1a4cbc9bf", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Inheritance tax", + "year": 2030 + } + ], + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "title": "Cap trust charges at £5m for pre-30 October 2024 excluded property trusts for charges applying from 6 April 2025 and close post-departure trade profits loophole from 6 April 2026", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "computed": true, + "construction": { + "baseline_world": { + "entry_point": "construction_reform", + "submitted_reform": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "2026-01-01.2030-12-31": 2 + } + } + }, + "components": [ + "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit" + ], + "construction_revision": null, + "executor_route": null, + "head_definitions": [ + { + "channel": "spending", + "obr_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "pe_variables": [ + "universal_credit" + ] + } + ], + "kind": "reversal_on_certified_world", + "reform_world": { + "entry_point": "certified_current_law", + "submitted_reform": null + }, + "sentinels": [] + }, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Reverses the UC child-element limit from infinity to two. The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed. Construction from the OBR costings lane (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml, #56). Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit", + "measure_type": "tax_benefit", + "missing_legs": [ + "Reverses the UC child-element limit from infinity to two. The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Reverses the UC child-element limit from infinity to two. The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "both_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23525:46339c11b7b3c9d3", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "source head 'Welfare outside cap' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23531:68ca04cd4d91504a", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-1886715000", + "reason": "Reverses the UC child-element limit from infinity to two. The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -807932923.6472473, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 1.4282220280472924, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": -2694647923.6472473, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_1.25_to_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23526:7a52217d035becaf", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-480000000", + "reason": "source head 'Welfare outside cap' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23532:a4b6c3164622eec3", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-2100951000", + "reason": "Reverses the UC child-element limit from infinity to two. The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -857469651.2378998, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 1.4081340551197528, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": -2958420651.2379, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_1.25_to_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23527:76270d3c75a7a426", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-489000000", + "reason": "source head 'Welfare outside cap' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23533:536f90f4ea5cecc8", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-2325254000", + "reason": "Reverses the UC child-element limit from infinity to two. The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -829568181.9229736, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 1.356764543539318, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": -3154822181.9229736, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_1.25_to_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23528:35553a766a3ad3d3", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-490000000", + "reason": "source head 'Welfare outside cap' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23534:b80fd366f320caa3", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-2570299000", + "reason": "Reverses the UC child-element limit from infinity to two. The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -688919800.0862427, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 1.2680309956492388, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": -3259218800.0862427, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_1.25_to_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23529:1e1a237caba88918", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-525000000", + "reason": "source head 'Welfare outside cap' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23535:0e2f301b9e5ffadd", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-2684855000", + "reason": "Reverses the UC child-element limit from infinity to two. The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -803336222.9893341, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 1.2992102824880056, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": -3488191222.989334, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_1.25_to_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23530:d1bc796d9f235c4f", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2030 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-550000000", + "reason": "source head 'Welfare outside cap' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23536:b082924fa31ed31d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "year": 2030 + } + ], + "reason": "Reverses the UC child-element limit from infinity to two. The OBR also reports a Welfare outside cap row, but the harvest does not identify its program composition; CTC or devolved-offset mechanics are not assumed.", + "title": "Universal Credit Child Element: Remove the two child limit from April 2026, taking 450,000 children out of poverty", + "years": [ + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2025.json", + "artifact_sha256": "5d3bfaf10d5660fd1ae1acb5256accacea059cec8674e0d64e9115ac8cff5df9", + "fy": "2025-26", + "head_effects": { + "universal_credit": -0.0 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": 0.0, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "intended": 2, + "processed": 2 + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "intended": 2, + "processed": 2 + } + } + }, + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2026.json", + "artifact_sha256": "61a5dc9ef92014733573ffe1d54f0ddda0f82ae33338628f70cdcb56f4bf5fdc", + "fy": "2026-27", + "head_effects": { + "universal_credit": -2694647923.6472473 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -2694647923.6472473, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "intended": 2, + "processed": 2 + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "intended": "inf", + "processed": "inf" + } + } + }, + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2027.json", + "artifact_sha256": "549672f778268216fd773a05837e686431b71e86743635c0eb195f662eb3e2a2", + "fy": "2027-28", + "head_effects": { + "universal_credit": -2958420651.2379 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -2958420651.2379, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "intended": 2, + "processed": 2 + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "intended": "inf", + "processed": "inf" + } + } + }, + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2028.json", + "artifact_sha256": "3f4ba770dd979ab9ef033048ebd2ea3b179690216de57aa43276d063ab3e8339", + "fy": "2028-29", + "head_effects": { + "universal_credit": -3154822181.9229736 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -3154822181.9229736, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "intended": 2, + "processed": 2 + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "intended": "inf", + "processed": "inf" + } + } + }, + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2029.json", + "artifact_sha256": "037fcd6841ab41ccf0697ae85ad77abf5d5057e5a6608da0fccbf3d256062fb3", + "fy": "2029-30", + "head_effects": { + "universal_credit": -3259218800.0862427 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -3259218800.0862427, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "intended": 2, + "processed": 2 + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "intended": "inf", + "processed": "inf" + } + } + }, + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2025/ab2025__uc_child_element_remove_two_child_limit_2030.json", + "artifact_sha256": "5d604f96a5f4930929f03042a7678112516baddb5744a5304bbdfb00d583a4b3", + "fy": "2030-31", + "head_effects": { + "universal_credit": -3488191222.989334 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -3488191222.989334, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "intended": 2, + "processed": 2 + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.elements.child.limit.child_count": { + "intended": "inf", + "processed": "inf" + } + } + }, + "year": 2030 + } + ] + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml). Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": "construction_pending", + "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing", + "measure_type": "universal_credit", + "missing_legs": [ + "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml)." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml).", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24161:ff3458e95f40aeac", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml).", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24167:b7d226aed2b73179", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-240842500", + "reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml).", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24162:f3593cc388660e45", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-3000000", + "reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml).", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24168:e263694dff91b3fc", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-472120500", + "reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml).", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24163:f59db18b67f43638", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-4000000", + "reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml).", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24169:844d917cd0915daa", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-625231000", + "reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml).", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24164:59bbc18ef2b0b52d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-5000000", + "reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml).", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24170:6eb0f852198750c1", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-785341500", + "reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml).", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24165:4f19021cc0e7d307", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-6000000", + "reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml).", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24171:520ce711e49335b1", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-938212500", + "reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml).", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24166:85ffe731d4ccc746", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2030 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-6000000", + "reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml).", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24172:e92854afca7c8e71", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "year": 2030 + } + ], + "reason": "A reversal that restores the pre-Budget protections has not been established. #136's construction switches UC rebalancing off (ab2025__uc_standard_allowance_and_health_element_rebalancing in data/uk/ab2025_measures.json); the replay inventory's note at policyengine-uk 2.125.1 (data/uk/events/inventory.jsonl) records that this leaves the 217.26 health element for every claimant, which is not the pre-measure world. The OBR costings lane leaves the measure without a construction for the same reason (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml).", + "title": "Universal Credit: Changes to the standard allowance and health element to protect existing claimants and new health element claimants who meet the Severe Conditions Criteria from April 2026", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": "model_or_data_gap", + "measure_key": "ab2025__uc_surplus_earnings_threshold_2500_extended", + "measure_type": "welfare", + "missing_legs": [ + "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23537:5be3f8d4c36225a1", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-146757000", + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23538:046c66ce421f59a6", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23539:5d9638c64f1281e6", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23540:0e3ab05e92899179", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23541:67b446047ea81fbc", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23542:891b4813b182ebfe", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2030 + } + ], + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "title": "Universal Credit: Extend the £2,500 surplus earnings threshold for one year from 6 April 2026", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "ab2025__uk_eu_sps_agreement_defra_costs", + "measure_type": "scope", + "missing_legs": [ + "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-30003547.5790285", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23903:0b2df3478bf3950c", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23904:f598d8d398100c95", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23905:6c89a7e8e812fdc2", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23906:47a6645342c2a83d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23907:c51e783dfa90dd78", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23908:ab01cb8632d702b3", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2030 + } + ], + "reason": "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads.", + "title": "UK-EU Deal: Fund DEFRA costs in 2025-26 for domestic implementation of UK-EU Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": "construction_pending", + "measure_key": "ab2025__uk_listing_relief_sdrt", + "measure_type": "other", + "missing_legs": [ + "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-22616530.676562913", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12204:ac984aa593fc1e51", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Stamp duty", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-32692426.44053667", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12205:ce27984cae270735", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Stamp duty", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-42784558.915136866", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12206:0ee97474b945b187", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Stamp duty", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-49085131.54346514", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12207:1ae1e0f0523b1f78", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Stamp duty", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-50735172.94974937", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12208:78f1399baf8e6b2b", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Stamp duty", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-52386183.34203373", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12209:39fcd3e58e79f907", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Stamp duty", + "year": 2030 + } + ], + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "title": "UK Listing Relief: Stamp Duty Reserve Tax relief for transfers of a company's securities for a three-year period from the point of listing, effective from 27 November 2025", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability. 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retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23509:b67a5f8fabab9b19", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "626000000", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12075:bdd1068c03670d0f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Environmental levies", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-626000000", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23504:c5cb0826e6cf9bc1", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Environmental levies", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-535938932.483245", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23510:2633963a159944bd", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "640000000", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12076:901b37f669e2218f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Environmental levies", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-640000000", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23505:cf135c1dce1a6215", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Environmental levies", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-357438932.48324496", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23511:03123dfd176d6aa0", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "640000000", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12077:da2688abaf4d40a1", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Environmental levies", + "year": 2030 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-640000000", + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23506:daed8f01f396180f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Environmental levies", + "year": 2030 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23512:52a74acfd2acb30d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2030 + } + ], + "reason": "The announcement needs a targeted tax-base, entitlement, transaction or programme mechanism not established as an executable reform on the certified household population.", + "title": "Warm Homes Plan: Increase funding for the Warm Homes Plan and expand the Warm Home Discount Scheme", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "computed": true, + "construction": { + "baseline_world": { + "entry_point": "construction_reform", + "submitted_reform": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.maximum_taxable_income": { + "2025-01-01.2030-12-31": 0 + }, + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income": { + "2025-01-01.2030-12-31": false + } + } + }, + "components": [ + "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000" + ], + "construction_revision": null, + "executor_route": null, + "head_definitions": [ + { + "channel": "tax", + "obr_head": "Income tax", + "pe_variables": [ + "income_tax" + ] + }, + { + "channel": "spending", + "obr_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "pe_variables": [ + "winter_fuel_allowance" + ] + } + ], + "kind": "reversal_on_certified_world", + "reform_world": { + "entry_point": "certified_current_law", + "submitted_reform": null + }, + "sentinels": [] + }, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland. Construction from the OBR costings lane (data/uk/obr_measure_reforms.yaml, #56). Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000", + "measure_type": "income_tax", + "missing_legs": [ + "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "both_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12714:7759d518d7c6f285", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-123669551.661409", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24155:58c670cb9cae45ee", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-1661868000", + "reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 347896411.94524145, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.7906594194332874, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": -1313971588.0547585, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_0.5_to_0.8", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24149:cb9c6124ee5756b0", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "408454519.8000001", + "reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -408454519.8000001, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.0, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "pe_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12715:2f68d12cab62adaa", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-125072301.588724", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24156:4971f6103c685e64", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-1672203000", + "reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 375078216.40644646, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.7756981560214601, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": -1297124783.5935535, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_0.5_to_0.8", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24150:3a557c09d1d519f6", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "891898111.2856009", + "reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -891898111.2856009, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.0, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "pe_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12716:668d8da17b50bcad", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-125870469.095167", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24157:1488946a6937ebc5", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-1676337000", + "reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 466297053.5253494, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.7218357325971154, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": -1210039946.4746506, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_0.5_to_0.8", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24151:5d9b3e6bbec76d40", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "490713760.68209356", + "reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -490713760.68209356, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.0, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "pe_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12717:e1c2c1fcb5ce9548", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-127268326.037955", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24158:73455589333cbd4a", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-1693906500", + "reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 496311611.20823336, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.7070017670938548, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": -1197594888.7917666, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_0.5_to_0.8", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24152:3f0b4da150453149", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "526033114.55423284", + "reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -526033114.55423284, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.0, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "pe_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12718:47d0bfcd7a27ba58", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-130277693.72710301", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24159:d05b64064fe8c177", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-1734246500", + "reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 540476168.8632488, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.688351010733913, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": -1193770331.1367512, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_0.5_to_0.8", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24153:4598fca7589b9736", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "561696945.1324424", + "reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -561696945.1324424, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.0, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "pe_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12719:670f8310e3289a5b", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2030 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-131951324.80216", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24160:0419e9d97e55970a", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2030 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-1753849500", + "reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 582423277.265346, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.6679171860154784, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": -1171426222.734654, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_0.5_to_0.8", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24154:67e883d6279cdc10", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2030 + } + ], + "reason": "Turns off the certified £35,000 England-and-Wales income passport while retaining the 2024 means-tested-benefit requirement. PE computes gross winter_fuel_allowance spending and Income Tax (expected to have no direct WFP recovery change); its formula uses income below £35,000 rather than the OBR description's below-or-equal wording and returns zero in Scotland.", + "title": "Winter Fuel Payment: Target to pensioners with taxable income below or equal to £35,000 from Winter 2025", + "years": [ + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2025/ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000_2025.json", + "artifact_sha256": "71ae737cb0b8c0ae8dc0b9ac5612a676fe8d335b0a1ac193c5647427c095db98", + "fy": "2025-26", + "head_effects": { + "income_tax": 0.0, + "winter_fuel_allowance": -1313971588.0547585 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -1313971588.0547585, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.maximum_taxable_income": { + "intended": 0, + "processed": 0 + }, + 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"gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.maximum_taxable_income": { + "intended": 0, + "processed": 0 + }, + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income": { + "intended": false, + "processed": false + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.maximum_taxable_income": { + "intended": 35000, + "processed": 35000 + }, + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + } + }, + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2025/ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000_2027.json", + "artifact_sha256": "99879e94dfa81eda7d455108329a69db5ff7de374c5a4653621fdcf564e07d46", + "fy": "2027-28", + "head_effects": { + "income_tax": 0.0, + "winter_fuel_allowance": -1210039946.4746506 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": 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"winter_fuel_allowance": -1197594888.7917666 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -1197594888.7917666, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.maximum_taxable_income": { + "intended": 0, + "processed": 0 + }, + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income": { + "intended": false, + "processed": false + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.maximum_taxable_income": { + "intended": 35000, + "processed": 35000 + }, + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + } + }, + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2025/ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000_2029.json", + "artifact_sha256": "d664cbea175c6a04c168d1209b4422d44d63f442e81c2e49058e2ad53b079e18", + "fy": "2029-30", + "head_effects": { + "income_tax": 0.0, + "winter_fuel_allowance": -1193770331.1367512 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -1193770331.1367512, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.maximum_taxable_income": { + "intended": 0, + "processed": 0 + }, + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income": { + "intended": false, + "processed": false + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.maximum_taxable_income": { + "intended": 35000, + "processed": 35000 + }, + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + } + }, + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_budget_2025/ab2025__winter_fuel_payment_income_test_35000_2030.json", + "artifact_sha256": "46c72cc4a70892baf9e55fff64819c01d986123be30c954053cb792dcfed67b4", + "fy": "2030-31", + "head_effects": { + "income_tax": 0.0, + "winter_fuel_allowance": -1171426222.734654 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -1171426222.734654, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.maximum_taxable_income": { + "intended": 0, + "processed": 0 + }, + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income": { + "intended": false, + "processed": false + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.maximum_taxable_income": { + "intended": 35000, + "processed": 35000 + }, + "gov.dwp.winter_fuel_payment.eligibility.taxable_income_test.use_maximum_taxable_income": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + } + }, + "year": 2030 + } + ] + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: The relevant liability exists, but this announcement's counterfactual path or targeted eligibility has not been established on the certified population; no guessed parameter or baseline. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": "construction_pending", + "measure_key": "ab2025__writing_down_allowances_14pct_and_40pct_fya", + "measure_type": "tax_benefit", + "missing_legs": [ + "The relevant liability exists, but this announcement's counterfactual path or targeted eligibility has not been established on the certified population; no guessed parameter or baseline." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12408:c2a8ee041a5298f5", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Bank surcharge", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "33000000", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12420:f4006c6836d91b4b", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "The relevant liability exists, but this announcement's counterfactual path or targeted eligibility has not been established on the certified population; no guessed parameter or baseline.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12414:15d1cbca84d98995", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23999:8b2fdb6fc3c7e0ba", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "2000000", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12409:cd9dae9d7abafdb8", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Bank surcharge", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "1069000000", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12421:5de28bba8701b28f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-36000000", + "reason": "The relevant liability exists, but this announcement's counterfactual path or targeted eligibility has not been established on the certified population; no guessed parameter or baseline.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12415:5d595f07e85a7f17", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-2000000", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24000:3085abe2521ba2de", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "3000000", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12410:20c57008106b2267", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Bank surcharge", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "1477000000", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; 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Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "autumn_budget_2025__send_manage_send_pressures_within_overall_del_envelope_from_28_30", + "measure_type": "scope", + "missing_legs": [ + "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24293:96675a90d2a5adb3", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Locally-financed capital expenditure", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24294:ab89218cc1fcc08b", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Locally-financed capital expenditure", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24295:3427adec2e286661", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Locally-financed capital expenditure", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-1804000000", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24296:2ec081b2e1de52f6", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Locally-financed capital expenditure", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-3389000000.0000005", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24297:0daac32b751ce485", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Locally-financed capital expenditure", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2030-31", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-5079000000.000001", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:24298:6494229a2caf6a03", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Locally-financed capital expenditure", + "year": 2030 + } + ], + "reason": "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads.", + "title": "SEND: Manage SEND pressures within overall DEL envelope from 28-30", + "years": [] + } + ], + "schema": "policyengine-scorecard/uk-event-dashboard-export/v1", + "semantics": "Each computed measure is costed on the replay's certified model and data, holding the rest of the law at what that engine treats as current law. A reversal_on_certified_world measure is in current law: its baseline world undoes it (baseline_world.submitted_reform) and its reform world is current law. A forward_delta_on_certified_world measure is not in current law: its baseline world is current law and its reform world adds it (reform_world.submitted_reform). measure_total_gbp is the sum of the declared fiscal heads' Exchequer effects, positive meaning a gain to the Exchequer; replay year Y is calendar year Y, the proxy for fiscal year Y-(Y+1). These are not the estimates made at the time of the event.", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "variant": { + "comparison_sha256": "e5c5afcb449ca1ff24bc618c72b843c19dd327b6ddaeb225bfd112dd8c494109", + "data_years": [ + 2024, + 2025, + 2026, + 2027, + 2028, + 2029, + 2030, + 2031, + 2032 + ], + "dataset": { + "path": "enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5", + "repo_id": "policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private", + "revision": "1.58.1", + "sha256": "056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784" + }, + "namespace_manifest_sha256": "738aa0e0b8100fbbcaa5dcedd07c7afd5ac7e597ce2a9a38b3fa40b1a3193f72", + "packages": { + "policyengine": "6.9.0", + "policyengine-core": "3.33.0", + "policyengine-uk": "2.130.1" + }, + "receipt_sha256": "f37d068c69253a9353c7bf891c8a44897fb4166c9550b14376dbe0fd71e6501b", + "run_manifest_sha256": "7edc1677d3503e2be9768d67111b876ab8b6f08065d9d3fe5369faf2c845442c", + "variant_id": "pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1", + "variant_identity_sha256": "ff5187900441c7605b79d19cca2424cdf4c208b75555ff50c79a0f4e95c0eb41" + }, + "years": { + "requested": [ + 2025, + 2026, + 2027, + 2028, + 2029, + 2030 + ], + "supported": [ + 2025, + 2026, + 2027, + 2028, + 2029, + 2030 + ], + "unsupported": [] + } +} diff --git a/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_statement_2023.json b/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_statement_2023.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..6596d5db --- /dev/null +++ b/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_statement_2023.json @@ -0,0 +1,17861 @@ +{ + "accounting": { + "amount_basis": "All harvested GBP cells across all source heads and costing years, including zeros; 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retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10634:8b4ec86ed3603cad", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Bank surcharge", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-1435562732.479079", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10628:765333ed6534b0ea", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-13398900.230173815", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10635:22092c5401942f54", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Bank surcharge", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-7532564359.927657", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10629:edee2a812857af74", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-20093807.829201795", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10636:9682b86b71ab4b65", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Bank surcharge", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-10694452307.679869", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10630:c850c992d139ba96", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-20718110.903580938", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10637:d9af21d86bdcef09", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Bank surcharge", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-10913053901.290804", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10631:369acd83fb46ae14", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2028 + } + ], + "reason": "Business/sector tax, firm allowance or credit; household income-tax spillovers in the PMD do not make the underlying business measure a household reform.", + "title": "Capital allowances: permanent full expensing from 2026-27", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__clarifying_structural_assets_for_life_insurance_companies_regulations_applying_from_1_january_2024_f9ab7cec", + "measure_type": "scope", + "missing_legs": [ + "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "2581978.81404089", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10896:da2464351cb37e1d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "10326563.75619877", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10897:8487d3b06a2f3c13", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "10597858.473693196", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10898:35b2ce50c9c86477", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "10880678.78253075", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10899:d263d5fbf102419b", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "11180240.531764721", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10900:689b85d8a64e064d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "11488879.613078976", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10901:c6f2b8e9cb6915f1", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2028 + } + ], + "reason": "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads.", + "title": "Clarifying structural assets for life insurance companies: regulations applying from 1 January 2024", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "computed": true, + "construction": { + "baseline_world": { + "entry_point": "construction_reform", + "submitted_reform": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.rates.employee.main": { + "2024-01-01.2035-12-31": 0.1 + } + } + }, + "components": [ + "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p" + ], + "construction_revision": null, + "executor_route": null, + "head_definitions": [ + { + "channel": "tax", + "obr_head": "Income tax", + "pe_variables": [ + "income_tax" + ] + }, + { + "channel": "tax", + "obr_head": "NICs", + "pe_variables": [ + "ni_class_1_employee", + "ni_class_1_employer", + "ni_class_2", + "ni_class_4" + ] + }, + { + "channel": "spending", + "obr_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "pe_variables": [ + "universal_credit" + ] + } + ], + "kind": "reversal_on_certified_world", + "reform_world": { + "entry_point": "certified_current_law", + "submitted_reform": null + }, + "sentinels": [] + }, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: The pinned engine samples government parameters on 30 April and applies that fiscal policy value to the whole nominal year. Its processed employee NICs main rate is 8% throughout 2024, so the 2pp marginal AS2023 reversal is 10% throughout 2024, retaining the later SB2024 cut. Although the liability variable is monthly, raw January-March rates do not survive parameter preprocessing. Nominal 2023 is unchanged, so the original January-March FY2023-24 costing leg is omitted by this annual fiscal policy snapshot and remains a named period/construction divergence. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_1_employee_nics_main_rate_cut_2p", + "measure_type": "national_insurance", + "missing_legs": [ + "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "CY2023 is outside pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1's supported data years 2024–2032 (before_data_year)", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10560:3a6d16cff489f44c", + "status": "unsupported_on_variant", + "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + 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"obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-2338950645.5608416", + "reason": "CY2023 is outside pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1's supported data years 2024–2032 (before_data_year)", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10548:f2f563200611f223", + "status": "unsupported_on_variant", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "427379.17741826555", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21467:50ff3ce409415888", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "6050941.286489317", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21473:ab05b76b7f2d2bb3", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "25591867.351959452", + "reason": "CY2023 is outside pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1's supported data years 2024–2032 (before_data_year)", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21461:f9e31391303b473d", + "status": "unsupported_on_variant", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": 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"reason": "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -369032563.99687773, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.0, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "pe_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10543:a1f1338aee24ceda", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-9128907735.336323", + "reason": "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -1501448432.1693993, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 1.1644718596900228, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": -10630356167.505722, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_0.8_to_1.25", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10549:7322b894d39fa3ec", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "2018015.4325961594", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21468:3a8f7c4777a80257", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "26548204.209517945", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21474:9cbc966cf0e74bd1", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2024 + }, 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against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Reverse the certified zero Class2 compulsory liability from annual2024 to the documented £3.70/week that was due from April2024 without abolition, with a £12,570 cash-liability threshold. The pinned formula otherwise charges above the small-profits threshold, although profits £6,725-£12,570 were already credited without paying. This threshold substitution isolates compulsory cash payments; voluntary contributions and benefit credits are not modelled. The pin incorrectly uses £3.15 for2023-24 against the actual £3.45 (later fixed upstream in #1887); nominal2023 remains that certified world and is before abolition. Later years keep £3.70 in cash terms and omit hypothetical later compulsory-rate uprating. Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/autumn-statement-2023/autumn-statement-2023-html Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_abolition", + "measure_type": "national_insurance", + "missing_legs": [ + "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent.", + "Restores only compulsory cash liability at the documented April2024 £3.70 weekly rate above £12,570; later hypothetical uprating, voluntary contributions and benefit-credit/entitlement responses are omitted." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "CY2023 is outside pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1's supported data years 2024–2032 (before_data_year)", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10608:8d76207d856fc00c", + "status": "unsupported_on_variant", + "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10602:10fba5ede62ec9a5", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "CY2023 is outside pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1's supported data years 2024–2032 (before_data_year)", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10590:9fb656d369cf6c02", + "status": "unsupported_on_variant", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "CY2023 is outside pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1's supported data years 2024–2032 (before_data_year)", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10596:482eac698ab9c181", + "status": "unsupported_on_variant", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21503:210e9e8bada76134", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21509:c5123f714ee54ff9", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "CY2023 is outside pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1's supported data years 2024–2032 (before_data_year)", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21497:197a81ed0459bc7d", + "status": "unsupported_on_variant", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "source head 'Capital gains tax' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10609:0bf03e9f919bfbae", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-36776850.44972875", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10603:f988dfb34cc38104", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent.; Restores only compulsory cash liability at the documented April2024 £3.70 weekly rate above £12,570; later hypothetical uprating, voluntary contributions and benefit-credit/entitlement responses are omitted.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "both_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10591:06c2501422284995", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-348669309.17433286", + "reason": "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent.; Restores only compulsory cash liability at the documented April2024 £3.70 weekly rate above £12,570; later hypothetical uprating, voluntary contributions and benefit-credit/entitlement responses are omitted.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -95735601.58779746, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 1.2745742142160559, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": -444404910.7621303, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_1.25_to_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10597:37b420855b7005a0", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21504:11aac6da7a06d654", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21510:f7365b6a93fbe4c8", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "4097382.253023544", + "reason": "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent.; Restores only compulsory cash liability at the documented April2024 £3.70 weekly rate above £12,570; later hypothetical uprating, voluntary contributions and benefit-credit/entitlement responses are omitted.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 35214913.90524062, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 9.594490757911297, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 39312296.15826416, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_at_least_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21498:3fa4108a7eac0a15", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "source head 'Capital gains tax' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10610:e82a65922591db12", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-120277089.33685336", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10604:2e41723e31096d04", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "1701838.270432405", + "reason": "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent.; Restores only compulsory cash liability at the documented April2024 £3.70 weekly rate above £12,570; later hypothetical uprating, voluntary contributions and benefit-credit/entitlement responses are omitted.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -1701838.270432405, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.0, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "pe_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10592:e5c257a04708cde7", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-350102319.5871488", + "reason": "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent.; Restores only compulsory cash liability at the documented April2024 £3.70 weekly rate above £12,570; later hypothetical uprating, voluntary contributions and benefit-credit/entitlement responses are omitted.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -109161929.84824288, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 1.3118000759805588, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": -459264249.43539166, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_1.25_to_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10598:28f9366b82391330", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-59309.51934322535", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21505:374cb2da46d104d4", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-112111.41483992286", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21511:69ca865721717cf1", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "5374644.901458091", + "reason": "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent.; Restores only compulsory cash liability at the documented April2024 £3.70 weekly rate above £12,570; later hypothetical uprating, voluntary contributions and benefit-credit/entitlement responses are omitted.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 34114488.442719154, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 7.3473009041888915, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 39489133.344177246, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_at_least_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21499:909bf2ab3554e230", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "source head 'Capital gains tax' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10611:c9463e33b6dd399f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-186661694.94794962", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10605:e8520c5b5437234d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "141921087.68720073", + "reason": "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent.; Restores only compulsory cash liability at the documented April2024 £3.70 weekly rate above £12,570; later hypothetical uprating, voluntary contributions and benefit-credit/entitlement responses are omitted.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -141921087.68720073, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.0, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "pe_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10593:f37c77d805ce9401", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-358399850.0876191", + "reason": "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent.; Restores only compulsory cash liability at the documented April2024 £3.70 weekly rate above £12,570; later hypothetical uprating, voluntary contributions and benefit-credit/entitlement responses are omitted.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -96592710.0951218, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 1.269511022595315, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": -454992560.1827409, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_1.25_to_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10599:0cdd3c6417e28a14", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "1511118.689659208", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21506:b8ab58b536a1ad7f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "13448321.248614388", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21512:54f73d621c17378e", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "6093086.0845173085", + "reason": "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent.; Restores only compulsory cash liability at the documented April2024 £3.70 weekly rate above £12,570; later hypothetical uprating, voluntary contributions and benefit-credit/entitlement responses are omitted.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 31410262.199753933, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 6.155066211778664, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 37503348.28427124, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_at_least_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21500:3cd35347ee5fc266", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "source head 'Capital gains tax' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10612:6f1e9a3bd0d656c3", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-242068400.86703146", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10606:464a49f34a9b5964", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "206481578.21251217", + "reason": "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent.; Restores only compulsory cash liability at the documented April2024 £3.70 weekly rate above £12,570; later hypothetical uprating, voluntary contributions and benefit-credit/entitlement responses are omitted.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -206481578.21251217, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.0, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "pe_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10594:eac703aa1cd0c605", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-368703205.37524307", + "reason": "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent.; Restores only compulsory cash liability at the documented April2024 £3.70 weekly rate above £12,570; later hypothetical uprating, voluntary contributions and benefit-credit/entitlement responses are omitted.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -105393829.25571376, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 1.2858500488175864, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": -474097034.6309568, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_1.25_to_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10600:d0828a5bfb537ca4", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "2238872.256787487", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21507:2c2538b49423c207", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "20144606.500244483", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21513:7aa3f5c32491b748", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "6154373.680937649", + "reason": "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent.; Restores only compulsory cash liability at the documented April2024 £3.70 weekly rate above £12,570; later hypothetical uprating, voluntary contributions and benefit-credit/entitlement responses are omitted.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 35674679.49774277, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 6.796638512256792, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 41829053.17868042, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_at_least_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21501:53e1c92d4a4f4e96", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "source head 'Capital gains tax' has 0 registered mappings", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10613:3cfca8cfa0228665", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-290645711.2809461", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10607:8dbf84f23026cba0", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Corporation tax (onshore)", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "261654511.53642154", + "reason": "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent.; Restores only compulsory cash liability at the documented April2024 £3.70 weekly rate above £12,570; later hypothetical uprating, voluntary contributions and benefit-credit/entitlement responses are omitted.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -261654511.53642154, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.0, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "pe_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10595:d9bbeb74fa78d25e", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Income tax", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-378862321.47441095", + "reason": "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent.; Restores only compulsory cash liability at the documented April2024 £3.70 weekly rate above £12,570; later hypothetical uprating, voluntary contributions and benefit-credit/entitlement responses are omitted.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -112305330.40867186, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 1.2964278157078684, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": -491167651.8830828, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_1.25_to_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10601:756ded1466aa84b3", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "NICs", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "2838759.920443839", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21508:243bee3203cd1327", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "25848426.991564553", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21514:95c9fc186b0b36f4", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "6726701.429016321", + "reason": "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent.; Restores only compulsory cash liability at the documented April2024 £3.70 weekly rate above £12,570; later hypothetical uprating, voluntary contributions and benefit-credit/entitlement responses are omitted.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 35266535.542419225, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 6.242768080993366, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 41993236.97143555, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_at_least_2", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21502:1ea7fa7e0cfb40da", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2028 + } + ], + "reason": "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent. Restores only compulsory cash liability at the documented April2024 £3.70 weekly rate above £12,570; later hypothetical uprating, voluntary contributions and benefit-credit/entitlement responses are omitted.", + "title": "National Insurance contributions (NICs): abolish Class 2 self-employed NICs liability from April 2024", + "years": [ + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_statement_2023/autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_abolition_2024.json", + "artifact_sha256": "e0390cd253e1f336ccb8d7e7af7f3ac205e209000426f1f28dfa0115de3f9d4e", + "fy": "2024-25", + "head_effects": { + "income_tax": 0.0, + "ni_class_1_employee": 0.0, + "ni_class_1_employer": 0.0, + "ni_class_2": -444404910.7621303, + "ni_class_4": 0.0, + "universal_credit": 39312296.15826416 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -405092614.60386616, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate": { + "intended": 3.7, + "processed": 3.7 + }, + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold": { + "intended": 12570, + "processed": 12570 + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate": { + "intended": 0, + "processed": 0 + }, + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold": { + "intended": 6725, + "processed": 6725 + } + } + }, + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_statement_2023/autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_abolition_2025.json", + "artifact_sha256": "ce7168ba72c7641c483ca3225c7e75fd48e01c88b375e7b16f914a4f3c52ec31", + "fy": "2025-26", + "head_effects": { + "income_tax": 0.0, + "ni_class_1_employee": 0.0, + "ni_class_1_employer": 0.0, + "ni_class_2": -459264249.43539166, + "ni_class_4": 0.0, + "universal_credit": 39489133.344177246 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -419775116.0912144, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate": { + "intended": 3.7, + "processed": 3.7 + }, + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold": { + "intended": 12570, + "processed": 12570 + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate": { + "intended": 0, + "processed": 0 + }, + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold": { + "intended": 6845, + "processed": 6845 + } + } + }, + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_statement_2023/autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_abolition_2026.json", + "artifact_sha256": "7afd70553ca604536c50af8d74912025d3fda15badd69210564cf26d1e2e3e4a", + "fy": "2026-27", + "head_effects": { + "income_tax": 0.0, + "ni_class_1_employee": 0.0, + "ni_class_1_employer": 0.0, + "ni_class_2": -454992560.1827409, + "ni_class_4": 0.0, + "universal_credit": 37503348.28427124 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -417489211.8984697, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate": { + "intended": 3.7, + "processed": 3.7 + }, + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold": { + "intended": 12570, + "processed": 12570 + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate": { + "intended": 0, + "processed": 0 + }, + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold": { + "intended": 7105, + "processed": 7105 + } + } + }, + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_statement_2023/autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_abolition_2027.json", + "artifact_sha256": "775f307fbe0b75b7e51e0a57af98e9b8ec34213ae2248e09112240030d3bf68a", + "fy": "2027-28", + "head_effects": { + "income_tax": 0.0, + "ni_class_1_employee": 0.0, + "ni_class_1_employer": 0.0, + "ni_class_2": -474097034.6309568, + "ni_class_4": 0.0, + "universal_credit": 41829053.17868042 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -432267981.4522764, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate": { + "intended": 3.7, + "processed": 3.7 + }, + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold": { + "intended": 12570, + "processed": 12570 + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate": { + "intended": 0, + "processed": 0 + }, + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold": { + "intended": 7247.088788138113, + "processed": 7247.088788138113 + } + } + }, + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_statement_2023/autumn_statement_2023__class_2_self_employed_nics_abolition_2028.json", + "artifact_sha256": "4f0ec8119df97228aaee2b82188f4ec8299888c04b7989e422565a0932f31ed4", + "fy": "2028-29", + "head_effects": { + "income_tax": 0.0, + "ni_class_1_employee": 0.0, + "ni_class_1_employer": 0.0, + "ni_class_2": -491167651.8830828, + "ni_class_4": 0.0, + "universal_credit": 41993236.97143555 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -449174414.91164726, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate": { + "intended": 3.7, + "processed": 3.7 + }, + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold": { + "intended": 12570, + "processed": 12570 + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.flat_rate": { + "intended": 0, + "processed": 0 + }, + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_2.small_profits_threshold": { + "intended": 7392.0236642935615, + "processed": 7392.0236642935615 + } + } + }, + "year": 2028 + } + ] + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "computed": true, + "construction": { + "baseline_world": { + "entry_point": "construction_reform", + "submitted_reform": { + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_4.rates.main": { + "2024-01-01.2035-12-31": 0.07 + } + } + }, + "components": [ + "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p" + ], + "construction_revision": null, + "executor_route": null, + "head_definitions": [ + { + "channel": "tax", + "obr_head": "Income tax", + "pe_variables": [ + "income_tax" + ] + }, + { + "channel": "tax", + "obr_head": "NICs", + "pe_variables": [ + "ni_class_1_employee", + "ni_class_1_employer", + "ni_class_2", + "ni_class_4" + ] + }, + { + "channel": "spending", + "obr_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "pe_variables": [ + "universal_credit" + ] + } + ], + "kind": "reversal_on_certified_world", + "reform_world": { + "entry_point": "certified_current_law", + "submitted_reform": null + }, + "sentinels": [] + }, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Reverse the announced 1pp/2pp marginal cut on the certified 6% Class 4 world, retaining later policy changes. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__class_4_self_employed_nics_main_rate_cut_1p", + "measure_type": "national_insurance", + "missing_legs": [ + "Static Universal Credit represents only part of the Welfare inside cap head; behavioural earnings, company-tax and departmental channels are absent." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "CY2023 is outside pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1's supported data years 2024–2032 (before_data_year)", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10584:443a5169e8191f85", + "status": "unsupported_on_variant", + "tax_head": "Capital gains tax", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; 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retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21817:541cb756ae3d9a2c", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21829:f44839d14d37a249", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21824:8142dd6816f0b1a7", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Locally-financed current expenditure", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-3159388.37258985", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; 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retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21831:65eb394cc217ba0d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21826:2658c53273374d2a", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Locally-financed current expenditure", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-3343138.51936825", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21814:27fd89afd420e1fa", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21820:d9bd8ad2c272e065", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21832:90bf0b0a962af9d7", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2028 + } + ], + "reason": "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads.", + "title": "Levelling Up: additional partnerships and projects", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "computed": true, + "construction": { + "baseline_world": { + "entry_point": "construction_reform", + "submitted_reform": { + "gov.dwp.LHA.freeze": { + "2024-01-01.2035-12-31": true + } + } + }, + "components": [ + "autumn_statement_2023__lha_reset_to_30th_percentile" + ], + "construction_revision": null, + "executor_route": null, + "head_definitions": [ + { + "channel": "spending", + "obr_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "pe_variables": [ + "housing_benefit", + "universal_credit" + ] + } + ], + "kind": "reversal_on_certified_world", + "reform_world": { + "entry_point": "certified_current_law", + "submitted_reform": null + }, + "sentinels": [] + }, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Restore LHA.freeze=True from annual2024, removing the pinned April2024 reset to the default 30th BRMA rent percentile. The engine's find_freeze_start then preserves the continuous 2020 freeze rather than the certified new freeze from2025. Uses the installed rent list, with no dataset download. 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Rent and tenure responses are absent; the certified later rent distribution and population are retained.", + "title": "Local Housing Allowance (LHA): set to the 30th percentile from April 2024", + "years": [ + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_statement_2023/autumn_statement_2023__lha_reset_to_30th_percentile_2024.json", + "artifact_sha256": "fa59bc038d906b37610949121a0d9cfda529c37f09213de7ffe198528296a226", + "fy": "2024-25", + "head_effects": { + "housing_benefit": -132222067.57011127, + "universal_credit": -1554888900.3146057 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -1687110967.884717, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.LHA.freeze": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.LHA.freeze": { + "intended": false, + "processed": false + } + } + }, + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_statement_2023/autumn_statement_2023__lha_reset_to_30th_percentile_2025.json", + "artifact_sha256": "e077fcc69af55c80dc7088b46ac87d928703cc62cf6c34ea11370ea929cd290a", + "fy": "2025-26", + "head_effects": { + "housing_benefit": -145070938.0732565, + "universal_credit": -1738004722.1675415 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -1883075660.240798, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.LHA.freeze": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.LHA.freeze": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + } + }, + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_statement_2023/autumn_statement_2023__lha_reset_to_30th_percentile_2026.json", + "artifact_sha256": "8eddd5cd946d172ba8a912447cf80ea751ba92575300c15204a03a69394e4228", + "fy": "2026-27", + "head_effects": { + "housing_benefit": -149931822.89990997, + "universal_credit": -1767232278.0137787 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -1917164100.9136887, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.LHA.freeze": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.LHA.freeze": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + } + }, + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_statement_2023/autumn_statement_2023__lha_reset_to_30th_percentile_2027.json", + "artifact_sha256": "58200016c9c1a49b7fe9a9315250f8759bb78ec5d67693b4995d998a062fc58a", + "fy": "2027-28", + "head_effects": { + "housing_benefit": -163561592.63858414, + "universal_credit": -1815586682.2787323 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -1979148274.9173164, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.LHA.freeze": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.LHA.freeze": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + } + }, + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/autumn_statement_2023/autumn_statement_2023__lha_reset_to_30th_percentile_2028.json", + "artifact_sha256": "40c4e5d30ec4664cbea85f26541a82e251c03887849499024f5be9aa06ca7059", + "fy": "2028-29", + "head_effects": { + "housing_benefit": -169179610.90740013, + "universal_credit": -1830983227.7310333 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": -2000162838.6384335, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.LHA.freeze": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.LHA.freeze": { + "intended": true, + "processed": true + } + } + }, + "year": 2028 + } + ] + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__local_authority_housing_fund_housing_supply_and_planning_dcdf9b22", + "measure_type": "scope", + "missing_legs": [ + "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21845:8fd60b2fcb6aec58", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; 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retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21847:8adffc31da413beb", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21853:3047f842b17e62fc", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (capital)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21848:4e978ee755f784cf", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21854:b3bc06a3c3cb738e", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (capital)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21849:707a82bd51805b80", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21855:570be43cb815bb07", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (capital)", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21850:10f30888b5bb518f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21856:db8be590d9f7a42d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (capital)", + "year": 2028 + } + ], + "reason": "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads.", + "title": "Local Authority Housing Fund, housing supply and planning", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__mandatory_work_placements_phased_rollout_66e64f19", + "measure_type": "scope", + "missing_legs": [ + "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21539:8136405a37532fcc", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; 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retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21548:4abe4cdf3fb95464", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-10311350.09709377", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21543:f118969224a28462", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-918801.467339306", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21549:4828ba631fe95016", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; 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a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "title": "Work Capability Assessment (WCA): reform to descriptors", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": "model_or_data_gap", + "measure_key": "autumn_statement_2023__work_capability_assessment_welfare_cap_adjustment_aaf86147", + "measure_type": "welfare", + "missing_legs": [ + "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22157:4ffa70d075709e21", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22163:f596653c27378f18", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22158:6832b113844ef9ab", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22164:28e769634357f2a0", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "65558994.70532556", + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22159:123ecf59209c9c5a", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-65558994.70532556", + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22165:2a5f20d05927cf29", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "174241733.5459327", + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22160:574e65506d1d556f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-174241733.5459327", + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22166:2ec59f10399ceaa8", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "235096309.13975134", + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22161:7370cbecc92eef0b", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-235096309.13975134", + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22167:2f10410baa0949ac", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "314186994.797272", + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22162:f2f61a4ea839b3bc", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-314186994.797272", + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22168:67e88267f3c43386", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare outside cap", + "year": 2028 + } + ], + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "title": "Work capability assessment: welfare cap adjustment", + "years": [] + } + ], + "schema": "policyengine-scorecard/uk-event-dashboard-export/v1", + "semantics": "Each computed measure is costed on the replay's certified model and data, holding the rest of the law at what that engine treats as current law. A reversal_on_certified_world measure is in current law: its baseline world undoes it (baseline_world.submitted_reform) and its reform world is current law. A forward_delta_on_certified_world measure is not in current law: its baseline world is current law and its reform world adds it (reform_world.submitted_reform). measure_total_gbp is the sum of the declared fiscal heads' Exchequer effects, positive meaning a gain to the Exchequer; replay year Y is calendar year Y, the proxy for fiscal year Y-(Y+1). These are not the estimates made at the time of the event.", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "variant": { + "comparison_sha256": "da0dfff134fda4f7454d7e1c9f0c4f21a382ca90a2449bd49433f48adb867ab9", + "data_years": [ + 2024, + 2025, + 2026, + 2027, + 2028, + 2029, + 2030, + 2031, + 2032 + ], + "dataset": { + "path": "enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5", + "repo_id": "policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private", + "revision": "1.58.1", + "sha256": "056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784" + }, + "namespace_manifest_sha256": "738aa0e0b8100fbbcaa5dcedd07c7afd5ac7e597ce2a9a38b3fa40b1a3193f72", + "packages": { + "policyengine": "6.9.0", + "policyengine-core": "3.33.0", + "policyengine-uk": "2.130.1" + }, + "receipt_sha256": "f37d068c69253a9353c7bf891c8a44897fb4166c9550b14376dbe0fd71e6501b", + "run_manifest_sha256": "9bbda6781b626b4ae4e1fdfc4a051e052afb1a8cc961ad25037461e91905e1d5", + "variant_id": "pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1", + "variant_identity_sha256": "ff5187900441c7605b79d19cca2424cdf4c208b75555ff50c79a0f4e95c0eb41" + }, + "years": { + "requested": [ + 2024, + 2025, + 2026, + 2027, + 2028 + ], + "supported": [ + 2024, + 2025, + 2026, + 2027, + 2028 + ], + "unsupported": [ + { + "reason": "before_data_year", + "year": 2023 + } + ] + } +} diff --git a/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/spring_budget_2023.json b/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/spring_budget_2023.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..d831bc31 --- /dev/null +++ b/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/spring_budget_2023.json @@ -0,0 +1,16335 @@ +{ + "accounting": { + "amount_basis": "All harvested GBP cells across all source heads and costing years, including zeros; this is not a one-year Budget total.", + "by_class": { + "expressible": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "0", + "measures": 0, + "net_gbp_decimal": "0", + "rows": 0, + "share_of_absolute": "0/1", + "share_of_measures": "0/1" + }, + "not_expressible": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "40639730627.120064076713124", + "measures": 39, + "net_gbp_decimal": "-22201749958.141974857379284", + "rows": 324, + "share_of_absolute": "20319865313560032038356562/63206261483610549377551397", + "share_of_measures": "39/89" + }, + "out_of_household_scope": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "83758999400.68278977338967", + "measures": 48, + "net_gbp_decimal": "-63833979218.38919178144453", + "rows": 678, + "share_of_absolute": "41879499700341394886694835/63206261483610549377551397", + "share_of_measures": "48/89" + }, + "partial": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "2013792939.418244905", + "measures": 2, + "net_gbp_decimal": "-2013792939.418244905", + "rows": 18, + "share_of_absolute": "1006896469709122452500000/63206261483610549377551397", + "share_of_measures": "2/89" + } + }, + "computed": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "1882514598.958382595", + "by_status": { + "constructed": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "1882514598.958382595", + "rows": 12, + "share_of_absolute": "941257299479191297500000/63206261483610549377551397" + }, + "not_computed": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "124398730027.802853850102794", + "rows": 1005, + "share_of_absolute": "62199365013901426925051397/63206261483610549377551397" + }, + "unsupported_on_variant": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "131278340.45986231", + "rows": 3, + "share_of_absolute": "65639170229931155000000/63206261483610549377551397" + } + }, + "measures": 2, + "rows": 12, + "share_of_absolute": "941257299479191297500000/63206261483610549377551397", + "share_of_measures": "2/89" + }, + "not_expressible_by_gap_kind": { + "construction_pending": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "22208203459.636736329123124", + "measures": 23, + "net_gbp_decimal": "-18604775996.353310754069284", + "rows": 180, + "share_of_absolute": "11104101729818368164561562/63206261483610549377551397", + "share_of_measures": "23/89" + }, + "model_or_data_gap": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "18431527167.48332774759", + "measures": 16, + "net_gbp_decimal": "-3596973961.78866410331", + "rows": 144, + "share_of_absolute": "9215763583741663873795000/63206261483610549377551397", + "share_of_measures": "16/89" + } + }, + "sign_convention": "positive means a gain to the Exchequer", + "totals": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "126412522967.221098755102794", + "measures": 89, + "net_gbp_decimal": "-88049522115.949411543823814", + "rows": 1020 + } + }, + "event": { + "name": "Spring Budget 2023", + "registry_path": "data/uk/events/spring_budget_2023_measures.json", + "registry_sha256": "0a78bfe32712bd30bdf9137bdf182e82a266c7da0e9885dd61cac6ef99a76357", + "slug": "spring_budget_2023" + }, + "measures": [ + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: The relevant liability exists, but this announcement's counterfactual path or targeted eligibility has not been established on the certified population; 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The pinned relief model has no flexibly-accessed pension history or MPAA switch; substituting annual_allowance.minimum would apply the wrong rule.", + "title": "Money Purchase Annual Allowance (MPAA): increase to £10,000 from April 2023", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "spring_budget_2023__mortgage_guarantee_scheme_extend_for_one_year_341c78c1", + "measure_type": "scope", + "missing_legs": [ + "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2022-23", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "5000000", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21407:916f119a5d23b5b7", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Other departmental expenditure (current)", + "year": 2022 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "5000000", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21408:9f2df5b3a98d65d3", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Other departmental expenditure (current)", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "5000000", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21409:c994817a6e3cc02b", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Other departmental expenditure (current)", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "5000000", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21410:5aa15b69e66050f2", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Other departmental expenditure (current)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "5000000", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21411:fd99d7587a00118a", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Other departmental expenditure (current)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "5000000", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:21412:7d7d813f9d5864dd", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Other departmental expenditure (current)", + "year": 2027 + } + ], + "reason": "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads.", + "title": "Mortgage Guarantee Scheme: extend for one year", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: The relevant liability exists, but this announcement's counterfactual path or targeted eligibility has not been established on the certified population; no guessed parameter or baseline. 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Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": "construction_pending", + "measure_key": "spring_budget_2023__tobacco_duty_increase_duty_on_hand_rolling_tobacco_by_an_additional_4_and_the_minimum_excise_tax_by_an_additio_fcea9073", + "measure_type": "indirect_tax", + "missing_legs": [ + "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2022-23", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "2969419.04728508", + "reason": "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + 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generic household consumption liability.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10328:17b55d4a52223db8", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Tobacco duty", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "26624017.81605721", + "reason": "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10329:a0c76b046d636175", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Tobacco duty", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": 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Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "spring_budget_2023__uc_childcare_cap_increase", + "measure_type": "universal_credit", + "missing_legs": [ + "Annual2023 applies the cap change throughout the year; the announced June2023 commencement is not apportioned.", + "Claiming, childcare spending and labour-supply responses, and separate upfront-payment and free-hours measures, are omitted." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2022-23", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:20825:dd3c209a8fd9bb5e", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2022 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2022-23", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "FY start outside this event's documented certified-bundle support", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:20831:42710c422946e46b", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2022 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-8769416.713153455", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; 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Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": "model_or_data_gap", + "measure_key": "spring_budget_2023__vehicle_excise_duty_freeze_rate_for_hgvs_for_2023_24_5b76ad2c", + "measure_type": "transport", + "missing_legs": [ + "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2022-23", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10308:d04800f81c36a48d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Vehicle excise duty", + "year": 2022 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-23063310.66882649", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10309:15705b8dc2d923cf", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Vehicle excise duty", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-23480742.632978946", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10310:79ed3d009d8fb88f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Vehicle excise duty", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-24022061.786939956", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10311:ed74585405de72c2", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Vehicle excise duty", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-24485427.231255017", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10312:ee9c5f17040e87d4", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Vehicle excise duty", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-25106536.290057193", + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:10313:dc1bcc2596e991b8", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Vehicle excise duty", + "year": 2027 + } + ], + "reason": "Targeted transport tax needs vehicle emissions/ownership, company-car benefit attributes or passenger journeys absent from the certified household inputs.", + "title": "Vehicle Excise Duty: freeze rate for HGVs for 2023-24", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "spring_budget_2023__wraparound_childcare_pathfinder_scheme_fd50195a", + "measure_type": "scope", + "missing_legs": [ + "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2022-23", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:20789:ba6b1551624eb604", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2022 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2022-23", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:20795:00aa383faddad564", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2022 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-4362076.65894085", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:20790:a046616078974ab7", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-387707.6119730894", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:20796:3c89a46852888700", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-210470198.793896", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:20791:4e03ce1b78416d66", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-18706892.277701598", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:20797:b409e8b31d3da211", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-109245038.2310206", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:20792:7f357d75ca714f6f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:20798:8b7af5be6ab6630d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:20793:ef0e0e1e290cfad7", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:20799:970ef7bd8d05a014", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:20794:76b43ae474c9ada5", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:20800:0d9ea87691014348", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2027 + } + ], + "reason": "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads.", + "title": "Wraparound childcare: pathfinder scheme", + "years": [] + } + ], + "schema": "policyengine-scorecard/uk-event-dashboard-export/v1", + "semantics": "Each computed measure is costed on the replay's certified model and data, holding the rest of the law at what that engine treats as current law. A reversal_on_certified_world measure is in current law: its baseline world undoes it (baseline_world.submitted_reform) and its reform world is current law. A forward_delta_on_certified_world measure is not in current law: its baseline world is current law and its reform world adds it (reform_world.submitted_reform). measure_total_gbp is the sum of the declared fiscal heads' Exchequer effects, positive meaning a gain to the Exchequer; replay year Y is calendar year Y, the proxy for fiscal year Y-(Y+1). These are not the estimates made at the time of the event.", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "variant": { + "comparison_sha256": "183e5f5ed636d8a2100e83642c1c7410f874b88e7457435edfada57190174999", + "data_years": [ + 2024, + 2025, + 2026, + 2027, + 2028, + 2029, + 2030, + 2031, + 2032 + ], + "dataset": { + "path": "enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5", + "repo_id": "policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private", + "revision": "1.58.1", + "sha256": "056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784" + }, + "namespace_manifest_sha256": "738aa0e0b8100fbbcaa5dcedd07c7afd5ac7e597ce2a9a38b3fa40b1a3193f72", + "packages": { + "policyengine": "6.9.0", + "policyengine-core": "3.33.0", + "policyengine-uk": "2.130.1" + }, + "receipt_sha256": "f37d068c69253a9353c7bf891c8a44897fb4166c9550b14376dbe0fd71e6501b", + "run_manifest_sha256": "0fa0b9b0e8d9d963a9b1273da902a07dd3452ae2ecb0a11eb331edfd11bf43a5", + "variant_id": "pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1", + "variant_identity_sha256": "ff5187900441c7605b79d19cca2424cdf4c208b75555ff50c79a0f4e95c0eb41" + }, + "years": { + "requested": [ + 2024, + 2025, + 2026, + 2027 + ], + "supported": [ + 2024, + 2025, + 2026, + 2027 + ], + "unsupported": [ + { + "reason": "before_data_year", + "year": 2023 + } + ] + } +} diff --git a/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/spring_budget_2024.json b/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/spring_budget_2024.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..51084c0a --- /dev/null +++ b/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/spring_budget_2024.json @@ -0,0 +1,12997 @@ +{ + "accounting": { + "amount_basis": "All harvested GBP cells across all source heads and costing years, including zeros; this is not a one-year Budget total.", + "by_class": { + "expressible": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "0", + "measures": 0, + "net_gbp_decimal": "0", + "rows": 0, + "share_of_absolute": "0/1", + "share_of_measures": "0/1" + }, + "not_expressible": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "28291135439.2031551041672", + "measures": 26, + "net_gbp_decimal": "9152381577.7088104666672", + "rows": 276, + "share_of_absolute": "707278385980078877604180/2797708793462782804281667", + "share_of_measures": "26/49" + }, + "out_of_household_scope": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "25416225856.97994206409948", + "measures": 20, + "net_gbp_decimal": "-1254963808.40385210849748", + "rows": 492, + "share_of_absolute": "635405646424498551602487/2797708793462782804281667", + "share_of_measures": "20/49" + }, + "partial": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "58200990442.328215003", + "measures": 3, + "net_gbp_decimal": "-51929613884.578753403", + "rows": 48, + "share_of_absolute": "1455024761058205375075000/2797708793462782804281667", + "share_of_measures": "3/49" + } + }, + "computed": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "58200990442.328215003", + "by_status": { + "constructed": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "58200990442.328215003", + "rows": 40, + "share_of_absolute": "1455024761058205375075000/2797708793462782804281667" + }, + "not_computed": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "53707361296.18309716826668", + "rows": 768, + "share_of_absolute": "1342684032404577429206667/2797708793462782804281667" + }, + "unsupported_on_variant": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "0", + "rows": 8, + "share_of_absolute": "0/1" + } + }, + "measures": 3, + "rows": 40, + "share_of_absolute": "1455024761058205375075000/2797708793462782804281667", + "share_of_measures": "3/49" + }, + "not_expressible_by_gap_kind": { + "construction_pending": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "14827716429.3533651396172", + "measures": 17, + "net_gbp_decimal": "-4211224310.2972801839828", + "rows": 192, + "share_of_absolute": "370692910733834128490430/2797708793462782804281667", + "share_of_measures": "17/49" + }, + "model_or_data_gap": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "13463419009.84978996455", + "measures": 9, + "net_gbp_decimal": "13363605888.00609065065", + "rows": 84, + "share_of_absolute": "336585475246244749113750/2797708793462782804281667", + "share_of_measures": "9/49" + } + }, + "sign_convention": "positive means a gain to the Exchequer", + "totals": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "111908351738.51131217126668", + "measures": 49, + "net_gbp_decimal": "-44032196115.27379504483028", + "rows": 816 + } + }, + "event": { + "name": "Spring Budget 2024", + "registry_path": "data/uk/events/spring_budget_2024_measures.json", + "registry_sha256": "64a3bccfd950e868ffc5d6261bf3903df88a3ebedc9b4444494acc717259817a", + "slug": "spring_budget_2024" + }, + "measures": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__additional_500m_for_the_final_local_government_settlement_1037e8ec", + "measure_type": "scope", + "missing_legs": [ + "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22583:85eaa40e53cc716d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22589:a6bab0ec5ff6e8b5", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "48740417.632393815", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22584:0a4d61013a35d81b", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-48463451.496636175", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22590:48b387ca9c26c375", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; 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Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": "construction_pending", + "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__vat_increase_the_registration_threshold_to_90_000_and_the_deregistration_threshold_to_88_000_from_1_april_2024_4b66fa47", + "measure_type": "indirect_tax", + "missing_legs": [ + "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11004:230b5c4b080ceb45", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "VAT", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-152038837.52328375", + "reason": "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11005:4c2075b7657f681a", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "VAT", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-183437629.7865166", + "reason": "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11006:b137d28dbc8b161b", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "VAT", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-126206328.08415155", + "reason": "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11007:b0efcd4dcd7cbed2", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "VAT", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-51017215.011006325", + "reason": "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11008:5f58f04df93001ad", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "VAT", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "62514921.745958194", + "reason": "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:11009:4e792e5e5e1b3afb", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "VAT", + "year": 2028 + } + ], + "reason": "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability.", + "title": "VAT: increase the registration threshold to £90,000 and the deregistration threshold to £88,000 from 1 April 2024", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Business/sector tax, firm allowance or credit; household income-tax spillovers in the PMD do not make the underlying business measure a household reform. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__visual_effects_tax_relief_removal_of_80_cap_on_qualifying_expenditure_and_5_uplift_for_qualifying_costs_from_1_25088222", + "measure_type": "business_tax", + "missing_legs": [ + "Business/sector tax, firm allowance or credit; household income-tax spillovers in the PMD do not make the underlying business measure a household reform." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22229:d1055a5ecf09e2ce", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Company and other credits", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22230:c6b488bf31d73b1f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Company and other credits", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-12065192.24362626", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22231:4f43510b198e8d7f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Company and other credits", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-63207759.44443045", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22232:0a1be4e8fcb88b63", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Company and other credits", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-68886515.70419493", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22233:af92ef7c817bf5ff", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Company and other credits", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-71354221.65940674", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22234:88642ff842263eec", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Company and other credits", + "year": 2028 + } + ], + "reason": "Business/sector tax, firm allowance or credit; household income-tax spillovers in the PMD do not make the underlying business measure a household reform.", + "title": "Visual effects tax relief: removal of 80% cap on qualifying expenditure and 5% uplift for qualifying costs from 1 April 2025", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "spring_budget_2024__welsh_government_funding_523cd290", + "measure_type": "scope", + "missing_legs": [ + "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2023-24", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22505:d8e3522910e93bba", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2023 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-14988178.44337873", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22506:515d2d97d3a5c4fc", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22507:bf6efe9165855b5b", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22508:eed0346e86704e0f", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22509:cdbe8a87257230fd", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:22510:92313d93a3c4c63e", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2028 + } + ], + "reason": "Business, departmental, local-authority, financing or block-grant accounts; no household tax/benefit counterpart for these source heads.", + "title": "Welsh Government funding", + "years": [] + } + ], + "schema": "policyengine-scorecard/uk-event-dashboard-export/v1", + "semantics": "Each computed measure is costed on the replay's certified model and data, holding the rest of the law at what that engine treats as current law. A reversal_on_certified_world measure is in current law: its baseline world undoes it (baseline_world.submitted_reform) and its reform world is current law. A forward_delta_on_certified_world measure is not in current law: its baseline world is current law and its reform world adds it (reform_world.submitted_reform). measure_total_gbp is the sum of the declared fiscal heads' Exchequer effects, positive meaning a gain to the Exchequer; replay year Y is calendar year Y, the proxy for fiscal year Y-(Y+1). These are not the estimates made at the time of the event.", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "variant": { + "comparison_sha256": "12142655269855f058450d7c8f4de10cf31e9ccdfb4a0a2df1739dc74435d6ce", + "data_years": [ + 2024, + 2025, + 2026, + 2027, + 2028, + 2029, + 2030, + 2031, + 2032 + ], + "dataset": { + "path": "enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5", + "repo_id": "policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private", + "revision": "1.58.1", + "sha256": "056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784" + }, + "namespace_manifest_sha256": "738aa0e0b8100fbbcaa5dcedd07c7afd5ac7e597ce2a9a38b3fa40b1a3193f72", + "packages": { + "policyengine": "6.9.0", + "policyengine-core": "3.33.0", + "policyengine-uk": "2.130.1" + }, + "receipt_sha256": "f37d068c69253a9353c7bf891c8a44897fb4166c9550b14376dbe0fd71e6501b", + "run_manifest_sha256": "a9ea0d294cc2998376c0ad02a955a5207fbc0d88ce8ab499805ef52683f8c810", + "variant_id": "pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1", + "variant_identity_sha256": "ff5187900441c7605b79d19cca2424cdf4c208b75555ff50c79a0f4e95c0eb41" + }, + "years": { + "requested": [ + 2024, + 2025, + 2026, + 2027, + 2028 + ], + "supported": [ + 2024, + 2025, + 2026, + 2027, + 2028 + ], + "unsupported": [ + { + "reason": "before_data_year", + "year": 2023 + } + ] + } +} diff --git a/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/spring_statement_2025.json b/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/spring_statement_2025.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..017276ca --- /dev/null +++ b/results/uk/dashboard_export/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/spring_statement_2025.json @@ -0,0 +1,8179 @@ +{ + "accounting": { + "amount_basis": "All harvested GBP cells across all source heads and costing years, including zeros; this is not a one-year Budget total.", + "by_class": { + "expressible": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "0", + "measures": 0, + "net_gbp_decimal": "0", + "rows": 0, + "share_of_absolute": "0/1", + "share_of_measures": "0/1" + }, + "not_expressible": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "22174211058.30566841825452", + "measures": 17, + "net_gbp_decimal": "13905803182.72034823285452", + "rows": 156, + "share_of_absolute": "79193610922520244350909/267780853663410558038934", + "share_of_measures": "17/32" + }, + "out_of_household_scope": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "39773717081.089675232647", + "measures": 13, + "net_gbp_decimal": "-10695514936.054166761393", + "rows": 324, + "share_of_absolute": "142048989575320268688025/267780853663410558038934", + "share_of_measures": "13/32" + }, + "partial": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "13030710886.3596126", + "measures": 2, + "net_gbp_decimal": "2364990886.3596126", + "rows": 18, + "share_of_absolute": "7756375527595007500000/44630142277235093006489", + "share_of_measures": "1/16" + } + }, + "computed": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "12073710886.3596126", + "by_status": { + "constructed": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "12073710886.3596126", + "rows": 12, + "share_of_absolute": "50307128693165052500000/312410995940645651045423" + }, + "not_computed": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "62904928139.39534365090152", + "rows": 486, + "share_of_absolute": "262103867247480598545423/312410995940645651045423" + } + }, + "measures": 2, + "rows": 12, + "share_of_absolute": "50307128693165052500000/312410995940645651045423", + "share_of_measures": "1/16" + }, + "not_expressible_by_gap_kind": { + "construction_pending": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "4857809657.404409217", + "measures": 6, + "net_gbp_decimal": "4520009657.404409209", + "rows": 42, + "share_of_absolute": "20240873572518371737500/312410995940645651045423", + "share_of_measures": "3/16" + }, + "model_or_data_gap": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "17316401400.90125920125452", + "measures": 11, + "net_gbp_decimal": "9385793525.31593902385452", + "rows": 114, + "share_of_absolute": "432910035022531480031363/1874465975643873906272538", + "share_of_measures": "11/32" + } + }, + "sign_convention": "positive means a gain to the Exchequer", + "totals": { + "absolute_gbp_decimal": "74978639025.75495625090152", + "measures": 32, + "net_gbp_decimal": "5575279133.02579407146152", + "rows": 498 + } + }, + "event": { + "name": "Spring Statement 2025", + "registry_path": "data/uk/events/spring_statement_2025_measures.json", + "registry_sha256": "d01ce0612f3f24830a8d8ea0abaaa6b2626963316b16750310d303f404fbab5b", + "slug": "spring_statement_2025" + }, + "measures": [ + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": "construction_pending", + "measure_key": "spring_statement_2025__building_safety_levy_implement_a_levy_on_new_residential_development_in_england_with_certain_exemptions_with_r_92185284", + "measure_type": "indirect_tax", + "missing_legs": [ + "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12018:e8b8737b1e17c742", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Building safety levy", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12019:53a1209478c29ef1", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Building safety levy", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12020:65834de9e37e285d", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Building safety levy", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "57000000", + "reason": "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12021:db44c4be3232128b", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Building safety levy", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "244000000", + "reason": "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12022:7c6ae6f6f15add81", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Building safety levy", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "347000000", + "reason": "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:12023:0ab2399fcd1e9e91", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Building safety levy", + "year": 2029 + } + ], + "reason": "This targeted indirect-tax measure requires product/sector-specific tax-base inputs, rate histories or business/supply-side scope not established by a generic household consumption liability.", + "title": "Building Safety Levy: Implement a levy on new residential development in England (with certain exemptions) with revenue to be spent on building safety from 1 October 2026", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: PSGI in CDEL and Scottish AME capital/current are public-budget and devolved-government accounts, not household cash entitlements or liabilities. Scope lookup ignores outer label padding while retaining the original PMD label. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "spring_statement_2025__capital_investment_increase_growth_enhancing_investment_including_on_infrastructure_housing_and_defence_innova_54741e20", + "measure_type": "scope", + "missing_legs": [ + "PSGI in CDEL and Scottish AME capital/current are public-budget and devolved-government accounts, not household cash entitlements or liabilities. Scope lookup ignores outer label padding while retaining the original PMD label." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23165:81c41ef61abe9e8a", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23171:730588964a1dc701", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish AME (capital) ", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23166:a7bfabe07214319b", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23172:d5dcaaf8859a9d20", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish AME (capital) ", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-730574981.6805615", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23167:79669a4846b8b697", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2026-27", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-39425018.31944778", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23173:6c5f910c29548307", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish AME (capital) ", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-3358747318.375521", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23168:fc973075b954fde3", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-181252681.62447482", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23174:f897910506cff6e0", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish AME (capital) ", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-3856866624.0668106", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23169:fed07b18e8bdf1bf", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-208133375.9331896", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23175:53359b715724cbaf", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish AME (capital) ", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-4375179524.571833", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23170:22acb315e35d56a7", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2029 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2029-30", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-237540637.4650426", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23176:42c31b8fe6420e65", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish AME (capital) ", + "year": 2029 + } + ], + "reason": "PSGI in CDEL and Scottish AME capital/current are public-budget and devolved-government accounts, not household cash entitlements or liabilities. Scope lookup ignores outer label padding while retaining the original PMD label.", + "title": "Capital Investment: Increase growth-enhancing investment including on infrastructure, housing, and defence innovation", + "years": [] + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "computed": false, + "construction": null, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: PSGI in CDEL and Scottish AME capital/current are public-budget and devolved-government accounts, not household cash entitlements or liabilities. Scope lookup ignores outer label padding while retaining the original PMD label. Engine facts for this run are recorded in CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json.", + "gap_kind": null, + "measure_key": "spring_statement_2025__construction_skills_supply_the_skilled_workers_to_build_1_5_million_homes_and_deliver_infrastructure_0e2a3e1f", + "measure_type": "scope", + "missing_legs": [ + "PSGI in CDEL and Scottish AME capital/current are public-budget and devolved-government accounts, not household cash entitlements or liabilities. Scope lookup ignores outer label padding while retaining the original PMD label." + ], + "obr_rows": [ + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23177:034428d3dde64d49", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSCE in RDEL", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23183:9401060bc135df79", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "PSGI in CDEL", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2024-25", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; 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The original existing-claimant rate freeze is not reversed: later legislated combined-award protections remain in the certified world.; Later legislated protections and rate paths differ from the original March2025 announcement.", + "replay_gap_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 0.0, + "replay_ratio_bin": "both_zero", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23315:dad0cc239a4e63b0", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2024 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23322:e7a91df8ca137075", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2025 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2025-26", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "0", + "reason": "The default simulation modifier assigns new-claimant cohorts using seeded synthetic shares (11%, 13%, 16%, 22% in 2026-29), not observed claim-start history or the March2025 OBR forecast cohorts.; 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The original existing-claimant rate freeze is not reversed: later legislated combined-award protections remain in the certified world.; Later legislated protections and rate paths differ from the original March2025 announcement.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -17109411.429923773, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.9774961513943345, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 743178827.6944885, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_0.8_to_1.25", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23317:1b983354102bb14d", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2026 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-22250267.5487044", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23324:9399b2f27fbfd06e", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2027-28", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "1555705616.0371184", + "reason": "The default simulation modifier assigns new-claimant cohorts using seeded synthetic shares (11%, 13%, 16%, 22% in 2026-29), not observed claim-start history or the March2025 OBR forecast cohorts.; The original existing-claimant rate freeze is not reversed: later legislated combined-award protections remain in the certified world.; Later legislated protections and rate paths differ from the original March2025 announcement.", + "replay_gap_gbp": -662105386.6149993, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": 0.5744018792568261, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": 893600229.4221191, + "replay_ratio_bin": "same_sign_ratio_0.5_to_0.8", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23318:dcc529f309fec572", + "status": "constructed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2027 + }, + { + "classification": "out_of_household_scope", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "-33928763.4409638", + "reason": "Source head is outside household tax-benefit scope; retained for event accounting.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23325:2a220260e99cd7fb", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Scottish BGA (current)", + "year": 2028 + }, + { + "classification": "partial", + "fy": "2028-29", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal": "2328372386.4247274", + "reason": "The default simulation modifier assigns new-claimant cohorts using seeded synthetic shares (11%, 13%, 16%, 22% in 2026-29), not observed claim-start history or the March2025 OBR forecast cohorts.; 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The original existing-claimant rate freeze is not reversed: later legislated combined-award protections remain in the certified world. Later legislated protections and rate paths differ from the original March2025 announcement.", + "title": "Universal Credit Health Element: Maintain at 2025-26 rate until 2029-30, reduce rate by 50% for new claimants from April 2026 and maintain until 2029-30", + "years": [ + { + "artifact": "results/uk/replays/pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1/spring_statement_2025/spring_statement_2025__uc_health_element_freeze_and_new_claimant_cut_2024.json", + "artifact_sha256": "de12142a5147847b1d0d15897c99c125f6ea23a766961c0820bf895621109f53", + "fy": "2024-25", + "head_effects": { + "universal_credit": -0.0 + }, + "measure_total_gbp": 0.0, + "processed_parameter_values": { + "baseline_world": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element": { + "intended": 217.26, + "processed": 217.26 + } + }, + "reform_world": { + "gov.dwp.universal_credit.rebalancing.new_claimant_health_element": { + "intended": 217.26, + "processed": 217.26 + } + } + }, + "year": 2024 + }, 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null, + "head_definitions": [ + { + "channel": "spending", + "obr_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "pe_variables": [ + "universal_credit" + ] + } + ], + "kind": "reversal_on_certified_world", + "reform_world": { + "entry_point": "certified_current_law", + "submitted_reform": null + }, + "sentinels": [] + }, + "construction_note": "Authored against policyengine-uk 2.89.2: Counterfactual uses the four 2025-26 monthly allowances times actual September2025 CPI growth of 3.8% for 2026, matching the CPI behind the legislated amount; later years use the certified benefit-CPI growth from that 2026 anchor. 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a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "replay_gap_gbp": null, + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio": null, + "replay_pe_value_gbp": null, + "replay_ratio_bin": "not_available", + "source_row_id": "obr_pmd_nov2025:23308:d1f88d677e0969c2", + "status": "not_computed", + "tax_head": "Welfare inside cap", + "year": 2029 + } + ], + "reason": "Requires claim history, previous awards, assessment descriptors, administrative process or an announcement-specific caseload response; a current annual liability parameter alone cannot replay it.", + "title": "Work Capability Assessment: Restart reassessments from April 2026", + "years": [] + } + ], + "schema": "policyengine-scorecard/uk-event-dashboard-export/v1", + "semantics": "Each computed measure is costed on the replay's certified model and data, holding the rest of the law at what that engine treats as current law. A reversal_on_certified_world measure is in current law: its baseline world undoes it (baseline_world.submitted_reform) and its reform world is current law. A forward_delta_on_certified_world measure is not in current law: its baseline world is current law and its reform world adds it (reform_world.submitted_reform). measure_total_gbp is the sum of the declared fiscal heads' Exchequer effects, positive meaning a gain to the Exchequer; replay year Y is calendar year Y, the proxy for fiscal year Y-(Y+1). These are not the estimates made at the time of the event.", + "sign_convention": "positive_gain_to_exchequer", + "variant": { + "comparison_sha256": "542b93d032a1ab2165c5eb1a0997e75fb8c08971c822489cb6897480cf8707ac", + "data_years": [ + 2024, + 2025, + 2026, + 2027, + 2028, + 2029, + 2030, + 2031, + 2032 + ], + "dataset": { + "path": "enhanced_frs_2024_25.h5", + "repo_id": "policyengine/policyengine-uk-data-private", + "revision": "1.58.1", + "sha256": "056e80fd8e9151d78f432a25cde863340baee81304c6216a37fb575ce8563784" + }, + "namespace_manifest_sha256": "738aa0e0b8100fbbcaa5dcedd07c7afd5ac7e597ce2a9a38b3fa40b1a3193f72", + "packages": { + "policyengine": "6.9.0", + "policyengine-core": "3.33.0", + "policyengine-uk": "2.130.1" + }, + "receipt_sha256": "f37d068c69253a9353c7bf891c8a44897fb4166c9550b14376dbe0fd71e6501b", + "run_manifest_sha256": "52e4dc1b788d478f15f63247cf5fff80a57b71e48a9eadefbd933e505849398d", + "variant_id": "pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1", + "variant_identity_sha256": "ff5187900441c7605b79d19cca2424cdf4c208b75555ff50c79a0f4e95c0eb41" + }, + "years": { + "requested": [ + 2024, + 2025, + 2026, + 2027, + 2028, + 2029 + ], + "supported": [ + 2024, + 2025, + 2026, + 2027, + 2028, + 2029 + ], + "unsupported": [] + } +} diff --git a/tests/test_export_uk_events_dashboard.py b/tests/test_export_uk_events_dashboard.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..13695066 --- /dev/null +++ b/tests/test_export_uk_events_dashboard.py @@ -0,0 +1,1325 @@ +"""The dashboard export of certified UK event replays +(pipeline/export_uk_events_dashboard.py). + +Invariants, for every committed export: + +- it regenerates byte for byte from the sealed namespace and the registries; +- every registry measure appears once, computed exactly when the registry + computes it and the seal holds its artifacts, one per supported year; +- a reversal undoes the measure in its baseline world and runs current law + as its reform world; a forward delta does the opposite; +- each year's total is the sum of its declared heads' effects; +- the classes partition the source rows, so their absolute shares sum to + exactly one; the computed rows are a subset of the computable classes'; +- the document has a closed shape: no field beyond the schema's. + +Properties of the helpers are checked over generated inputs, and the +accounting against an independent Fraction implementation. Tampered copies of +a sealed namespace are refused. +""" + +import csv +import io +import json +import math +import re +import shutil +from decimal import Decimal +from fractions import Fraction +from importlib import metadata +from pathlib import Path +from types import SimpleNamespace + +import pytest +from hypothesis import HealthCheck, example, given, settings +from hypothesis import strategies as st + +from pipeline import export_uk_events_dashboard as export +from pipeline import uk_replay_interface as interface +from pipeline import uk_replay_variants as variants + +ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent +EXPORTED = sorted(p.name for p in export.EXPORT_ROOT.iterdir() if p.is_dir()) +# The variant the dashboard's first import reads. +FIRST = "pe6.9.0_uk2.130.1_policyengine-uk-data-1.58.1" +EVENT = "spring_statement_2025" + + +def documents(variant_id: str) -> dict[str, dict]: + folder = export.EXPORT_ROOT / variant_id + return { + p.stem: json.loads(p.read_text()) + for p in sorted(folder.glob("*.json")) + if p.name != export.EXPORT_MANIFEST + } + + +ALL = [ + (variant_id, event, document) + for variant_id in EXPORTED + for event, document in documents(variant_id).items() +] + + +def registry_of(document: dict) -> dict: + return json.loads((ROOT / document["event"]["registry_path"]).read_text()) + + +def test_the_first_import_variant_is_exported(): + assert FIRST in EXPORTED + + +def test_recorded_scenario_capability_matches_the_installed_engine(): + # Engine-free CI skips this. Each replay-engine leg instead checks the + # table's entry on its variant's engine (--check-scenario-capability in + # ci.yml), which, unlike this test, passes an unrecorded engine whose + # variant has no committed export + try: + version = metadata.version("policyengine-uk") + except metadata.PackageNotFoundError: + pytest.skip("policyengine-uk is not installed in this engine-free environment") + assert version in export.SCENARIO_DATED_REFORMS, ( + f"Verify and record Scenario.dated_reforms for policyengine-uk {version}" + ) + assert export.scenario_capability_problems() == [] + + +def installed(monkeypatch, version: str | None, dated_reforms: bool = True) -> None: + """Stand in for an installed engine of ``version``; None installs none.""" + + def read(name: str) -> str: + if version is None: + raise metadata.PackageNotFoundError(name) + return version + + monkeypatch.setattr( + export, + "metadata", + SimpleNamespace( + version=read, PackageNotFoundError=metadata.PackageNotFoundError + ), + ) + monkeypatch.setattr( + export, "installed_scenario_dated_reforms", lambda: dated_reforms + ) + + +def exports_nothing(monkeypatch) -> None: + def refuse(*args, **kwargs): + raise AssertionError("the capability check exported") + + monkeypatch.setattr(export, "write_export", refuse) + + +def legacy_record() -> dict: + document = variants.load_document() + return next(v for v in document["variants"] if variants.is_legacy(v)) + + +def test_the_capability_check_passes_a_recorded_engine_that_agrees(monkeypatch, capsys): + installed(monkeypatch, "2.130.1", True) + exports_nothing(monkeypatch) + assert export.scenario_capability_problems(variants.get_variant(FIRST)) == [] + assert export.main(["--check-scenario-capability", "--variant", FIRST]) == 0 + assert "dated_reforms=True, as recorded" in capsys.readouterr().out + + +def test_the_capability_check_refuses_a_recorded_engine_that_disagrees( + monkeypatch, capsys +): + installed(monkeypatch, "2.130.1", False) + exports_nothing(monkeypatch) + (problem,) = export.scenario_capability_problems() + assert "records dated_reforms=True" in problem and "gives False" in problem + assert export.main(["--check-scenario-capability", "--variant", FIRST]) == 1 + assert "gives False" in capsys.readouterr().err + + +def test_the_capability_check_refuses_an_unrecorded_engine_only_for_an_exported_variant( + monkeypatch, capsys +): + legacy = legacy_record() + installed(monkeypatch, legacy["identity"]["packages"]["policyengine-uk"]["version"]) + exports_nothing(monkeypatch) + assert not (export.EXPORT_ROOT / legacy["variant_id"]).exists() + assert export.scenario_capability_problems(legacy) == [] + check = ["--check-scenario-capability", "--variant", legacy["variant_id"]] + assert export.main(check) == 0 + assert "is not recorded; the export refuses it" in capsys.readouterr().out + monkeypatch.delitem(export.SCENARIO_DATED_REFORMS, "2.130.1") + installed(monkeypatch, "2.130.1") + assert export.scenario_capability_problems() == [] + (problem,) = export.scenario_capability_problems(variants.get_variant(FIRST)) + assert "has a committed export" in problem + assert export.main(["--check-scenario-capability", "--variant", FIRST]) == 1 + + +def test_the_capability_check_refuses_another_variants_engine_and_no_engine( + monkeypatch, capsys +): + exports_nothing(monkeypatch) + installed(monkeypatch, "2.125.1") + (problem,) = export.scenario_capability_problems(variants.get_variant(FIRST)) + assert "runs policyengine-uk 2.130.1, but 2.125.1 is installed" in problem + installed(monkeypatch, None) + assert export.scenario_capability_problems() == ["policyengine-uk is not installed"] + assert export.main(["--check-scenario-capability", "--variant", FIRST]) == 1 + assert "not installed" in capsys.readouterr().err + + +def test_the_capability_check_defaults_to_the_newest_certified_variant(monkeypatch): + seen = [] + monkeypatch.setattr( + export, "scenario_capability_problems", lambda record: seen.append(record) or [] + ) + installed(monkeypatch, "2.130.1") + exports_nothing(monkeypatch) + assert export.main(["--check-scenario-capability"]) == 0 + assert seen == [export.default_variant(variants.load_document())] + + +def test_the_capability_check_asks_the_replays_own_route(monkeypatch): + calls = [] + + def route(reform, revision): + calls.append((reform, revision)) + return routed(reform) + + monkeypatch.setattr(export.replay, "revision_reform_route", route) + for routed, expected in [ + (lambda reform: reform, False), + ( + lambda reform: {path: {"2024-04-06.2036-04-05": 0.1} for path in reform}, + True, + ), + ]: + assert export.installed_scenario_dated_reforms() is expected + assert ( + calls + == [(export.CAPABILITY_PROBE, {"paths": list(export.CAPABILITY_PROBE)})] * 2 + ) + + +def test_every_replay_engine_leg_runs_the_capability_check(): + import yaml + + steps = yaml.safe_load((ROOT / ".github/workflows/ci.yml").read_text())["jobs"][ + "replay-engine" + ]["steps"] + command = ( + ".venv-variant/bin/python -m pipeline.export_uk_events_dashboard " + '--check-scenario-capability --variant "$VARIANT"' + ) + (check,) = [s for s in steps if s.get("run", "").strip() == command] + # No condition, continue-on-error, env or shell override can weaken it + assert set(check) == {"name", "run"} + names = [s.get("name") for s in steps] + assert names.index("The installed environment is exactly the variant's") < ( + steps.index(check) + ) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("variant_id", EXPORTED) +def test_committed_export_regenerates_byte_for_byte(variant_id, tmp_path): + out = export.write_export(variants.get_variant(variant_id), output_root=tmp_path) + committed = export.EXPORT_ROOT / variant_id + assert sorted(p.name for p in out.iterdir()) == sorted( + p.name for p in committed.iterdir() + ) + for path in out.iterdir(): + assert path.read_bytes() == (committed / path.name).read_bytes(), path.name + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("variant_id", EXPORTED) +def test_manifest_names_every_file_by_digest(variant_id): + folder = export.EXPORT_ROOT / variant_id + manifest = json.loads((folder / export.EXPORT_MANIFEST).read_text()) + assert manifest["variant_id"] == variant_id + files = { + p.name: export.sha256_bytes(p.read_bytes()) + for p in folder.glob("*.json") + if p.name != export.EXPORT_MANIFEST + } + assert manifest["files"] == files + record = variants.get_variant(variant_id) + receipt = variants.namespace_root(record) / variants.RECEIPT_NAME + assert manifest["receipt_sha256"] == export.sha256_bytes(receipt.read_bytes()) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("variant_id,event,document", ALL, ids=lambda v: str(v)[:40]) +def test_every_registry_measure_once_computed_when_the_registry_computes_it( + variant_id, event, document +): + registry = registry_of(document) + assert document["event"]["slug"] == event + assert document["variant"]["variant_id"] == variant_id + keys = [m["measure_key"] for m in document["measures"]] + assert keys == sorted(m["measure_key"] for m in registry["measures"]) + supported = document["years"]["supported"] + index = {m["measure_key"]: m for m in registry["measures"]} + planned = export.worlds.computable(index, years=supported) + namespace = export.Namespace(variants.get_variant(variant_id)) + run = namespace.json(f"{event}/RUN_MANIFEST.json") + artifact_years: dict[str, list[int]] = {} + for path in run["artifacts"]: + artifact = namespace.json( + Path(path).relative_to(namespace.path.relative_to(ROOT)).as_posix() + ) + artifact_years.setdefault(artifact["measure_key"], []).append(artifact["year"]) + for measure in document["measures"]: + key = measure["measure_key"] + expected = measure["classification"] in export.COMPUTABLE and key in planned + years = sorted(artifact_years.get(key, [])) + assert years == (supported if expected else []) + assert measure["computed"] == (expected and bool(supported)) + if measure["computed"]: + assert measure["classification"] in export.COMPUTABLE + assert [y["year"] for y in measure["years"]] == supported + assert all( + y["fy"] == f"{y['year']}-{str(y['year'] + 1)[2:]}" + for y in measure["years"] + ) + else: + assert measure["construction"] is None and measure["years"] == [] + assert measure["reason"] + if measure["classification"] == "not_expressible": + assert measure["gap_kind"] in export.GAP_KINDS + else: + assert measure["gap_kind"] is None + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("variant_id,event,document", ALL, ids=lambda v: str(v)[:40]) +def test_constructions_have_the_declared_direction_and_totals_sum_their_heads( + variant_id, event, document +): + for measure in (m for m in document["measures"] if m["computed"]): + construction = measure["construction"] + baseline = construction["baseline_world"]["submitted_reform"] + reform = construction["reform_world"]["submitted_reform"] + if construction["kind"] == "reversal_on_certified_world": + assert baseline and reform is None + assert ( + construction["reform_world"]["entry_point"] == "certified_current_law" + ) + elif construction["kind"] == "forward_delta_on_certified_world": + assert baseline is None and reform + assert ( + construction["baseline_world"]["entry_point"] == "certified_current_law" + ) + else: + pytest.fail(f"{measure['measure_key']}: unexpected {construction['kind']}") + heads = {v for h in construction["head_definitions"] for v in h["pe_variables"]} + for year in measure["years"]: + assert set(year["head_effects"]) <= heads + assert year["measure_total_gbp"] == pytest.approx( + math.fsum(year["head_effects"].values()), rel=1e-12, abs=1e-6 + ) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("variant_id,event,document", ALL, ids=lambda v: str(v)[:40]) +def test_classes_partition_the_source_rows(variant_id, event, document): + accounting = document["accounting"] + classes = accounting["by_class"] + assert sum(Fraction(c["share_of_absolute"]) for c in classes.values()) == 1 + assert sum(Fraction(c["share_of_measures"]) for c in classes.values()) == 1 + totals = accounting["totals"] + assert sum(c["rows"] for c in classes.values()) == totals["rows"] + assert sum(c["measures"] for c in classes.values()) == totals["measures"] + with export.exact(): + net = sum((Decimal(c["net_gbp_decimal"]) for c in classes.values()), Decimal(0)) + computable_absolute = sum( + (Decimal(classes[c]["absolute_gbp_decimal"]) for c in export.COMPUTABLE), + Decimal(0), + ) + assert net == Decimal(totals["net_gbp_decimal"]) + rows = [r for m in document["measures"] for r in m["obr_rows"]] + assert len(rows) == totals["rows"] + assert len({r["source_row_id"] for r in rows}) == len(rows) + computed = accounting["computed"] + by_status = computed["by_status"] + assert sum(s["rows"] for s in by_status.values()) == totals["rows"] + assert sum(Fraction(s["share_of_absolute"]) for s in by_status.values()) == 1 + assert computed["rows"] == by_status.get(export.CONSTRUCTED, {"rows": 0})["rows"] + assert Decimal(computed["absolute_gbp_decimal"]) <= computable_absolute + for row in rows: + if row["status"] == export.CONSTRUCTED: + assert row["classification"] in export.COMPUTABLE + assert row["replay_pe_value_gbp"] is not None + + +MEASURE_KEYS = { + "measure_key", + "title", + "measure_type", + "classification", + "gap_kind", + "reason", + "missing_legs", + "construction_note", + "obr_rows", + "computed", + "construction", + "years", +} +ROW_KEYS = { + "source_row_id", + "fy", + "year", + "tax_head", + "obr_value_gbp_decimal", + "classification", + "status", + "reason", + "replay_pe_value_gbp", + "replay_gap_gbp", + "replay_pe_to_obr_ratio", + "replay_ratio_bin", +} +YEAR_KEYS = { + "year", + "fy", + "measure_total_gbp", + "head_effects", + "processed_parameter_values", + "artifact", + "artifact_sha256", +} +CONSTRUCTION_KEYS = { + "kind", + "components", + "baseline_world", + "reform_world", + "construction_revision", + "sentinels", + "executor_route", + "head_definitions", +} +SCALARS = (bool, int, float, str, type(None)) + + +def assert_closed_shape(value, shape): + if isinstance(shape, tuple) and shape[0] is None: + if value is None: + return + shape = shape[1] + if isinstance(shape, dict): + assert isinstance(value, dict) + assert set(value) == set(shape) + for key, child in shape.items(): + assert_closed_shape(value[key], child) + elif isinstance(shape, list): + assert isinstance(value, list) + for item in value: + assert_closed_shape(item, shape[0]) + elif isinstance(shape, tuple) and isinstance(shape[0], frozenset | re.Pattern): + assert isinstance(value, dict) + keys, child = shape + for key, item in value.items(): + assert key in keys if isinstance(keys, frozenset) else keys.fullmatch(key) + assert_closed_shape(item, child) + elif shape is SCALARS and isinstance(value, list): + for item in value: + assert_closed_shape(item, SCALARS) + else: + assert isinstance(value, shape) + + +def document_shape(document): + registry = registry_of(document) + worlds = export.worlds.computable( + {m["measure_key"]: m for m in registry["measures"]}, + years=document["years"]["supported"], + ) + paths = frozenset( + path + for world in worlds.values() + for field in ("baseline_reform", "reform_reform") + for path in world[field] or {} + ) + heads = frozenset( + variable + for measure in registry["measures"] + for head in export.replay.head_definitions(measure) + for variable in head["pe_variables"] + ) + reform = ( + None, + (paths, (re.compile(r"\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}\.\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2}"), SCALARS)), + ) + world = {"entry_point": str, "submitted_reform": reform} + account = { + "measures": int, + "rows": int, + "net_gbp_decimal": str, + "absolute_gbp_decimal": str, + "share_of_absolute": (str, type(None)), + "share_of_measures": (str, type(None)), + } + construction = {key: SCALARS for key in CONSTRUCTION_KEYS} + construction.update( + components=[str], + baseline_world=world, + reform_world=world, + construction_revision=( + None, + { + "revision_id": str, + "registry_sha256": str, + "activation_fy": str, + "part_year_rule": str, + "paths": [str], + }, + ), + sentinels=[str], + head_definitions=[{"channel": str, "obr_head": str, "pe_variables": [str]}], + ) + year = {key: SCALARS for key in YEAR_KEYS} + year.update( + head_effects=(heads, (float, int)), + processed_parameter_values={ + name: (paths, {"intended": SCALARS, "processed": SCALARS}) + for name in ("baseline_world", "reform_world") + }, + ) + measure = {key: SCALARS for key in MEASURE_KEYS} + measure.update( + missing_legs=[str], + obr_rows=[{key: SCALARS for key in ROW_KEYS}], + construction=(None, construction), + years=[year], + ) + return { + "schema": str, + "semantics": str, + "sign_convention": str, + "event": dict.fromkeys( + ("slug", "name", "registry_path", "registry_sha256"), str + ), + "variant": { + **dict.fromkeys( + ( + "variant_id", + "variant_identity_sha256", + "receipt_sha256", + "namespace_manifest_sha256", + "run_manifest_sha256", + "comparison_sha256", + ), + str, + ), + "packages": dict.fromkeys( + variants.get_variant(document["variant"]["variant_id"])["identity"][ + "packages" + ], + str, + ), + "dataset": dict.fromkeys(("repo_id", "path", "revision", "sha256"), str), + "data_years": [int], + }, + "years": { + "requested": [int], + "supported": [int], + "unsupported": [{"reason": str, "year": int}], + }, + "accounting": { + "amount_basis": str, + "sign_convention": str, + "by_class": dict.fromkeys(export.CLASSES, account), + "not_expressible_by_gap_kind": dict.fromkeys(export.GAP_KINDS, account), + "totals": { + "measures": int, + "rows": int, + "net_gbp_decimal": str, + "absolute_gbp_decimal": str, + }, + "computed": { + "measures": int, + "rows": int, + "absolute_gbp_decimal": str, + "share_of_absolute": (str, type(None)), + "share_of_measures": (str, type(None)), + "by_status": ( + frozenset( + ("constructed", "not_computed", "unsupported_on_variant") + ), + { + "rows": int, + "absolute_gbp_decimal": str, + "share_of_absolute": (str, type(None)), + }, + ), + }, + }, + "measures": [measure], + } + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("variant_id,event,document", ALL, ids=lambda v: str(v)[:40]) +def test_the_document_has_a_closed_aggregate_shape(variant_id, event, document): + assert document["schema"] == export.SCHEMA + assert_closed_shape(document, document_shape(document)) + + +def test_unknown_event_fields_are_refused_by_the_closed_schema(): + document = documents(FIRST)[EVENT] + shape = document_shape(document) + document["event"]["extra_unrecognised_field"] = 123 + with pytest.raises(AssertionError): + assert_closed_shape(document, shape) + + +def test_the_uc_health_measure_names_its_executor_route(): + document = documents(FIRST)[EVENT] + routes = { + m["measure_key"]: m["construction"]["executor_route"] + for m in document["measures"] + if m["computed"] + } + assert routes == { + "spring_statement_2025__uc_health_element_freeze_and_new_claimant_cut": "uc_health_element_refresh", + "spring_statement_2025__uc_standard_allowance_above_inflation": None, + } + + +# --- refusals on tampered copies ------------------------------------------------ + + +def sealed_copy(tmp_path: Path, event: str = EVENT) -> tuple[dict, Path]: + """A minimal copy of FIRST's sealed namespace holding one event.""" + record = variants.get_variant(FIRST) + source = variants.namespace_root(record) + target = variants.namespace_root(record, root=tmp_path) + target.mkdir(parents=True) + for name in ( + variants.RECEIPT_NAME, + "NAMESPACE_MANIFEST.json", + variants.CORPUS_NAME, + "CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json", + ): + shutil.copy2(source / name, target / name) + shutil.copytree(source / event, target / event) + run = json.loads((source / event / "RUN_MANIFEST.json").read_text()) + registry = tmp_path / run["registry_path"] + registry.parent.mkdir(parents=True) + shutil.copy2(ROOT / run["registry_path"], registry) + requirements = tmp_path / record["requirements"]["path"] + requirements.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + shutil.copy2(ROOT / record["requirements"]["path"], requirements) + return record, target + + +def reseal_namespace(target: Path, event: str) -> None: + """Reseal edited fixture files so semantic checks see valid digests.""" + run_path = target / event / "RUN_MANIFEST.json" + run = json.loads(run_path.read_bytes()) + changed_artifacts = {} + artifact_names = {Path(path).name for path in run["artifacts"]} + for path in run["artifacts"]: + artifact = target / event / Path(path).name + old_digest = run["artifacts"][path] + new_digest = export.sha256_bytes(artifact.read_bytes()) + run["artifacts"][path] = new_digest + if new_digest != old_digest: + changed_artifacts[old_digest] = new_digest + run_path.write_bytes(export.canonical_json(run)) + # Staging, comparisons, and progress records also carry artifact digests. + # Preserve their formatting while refreshing every pointer to an edited file. + for path in (target / event).iterdir(): + if path.name in artifact_names or path == run_path: + continue + if path.suffix not in (".json", ".jsonl", ".csv", ".md"): + continue + content = path.read_bytes() + for old_digest, new_digest in changed_artifacts.items(): + content = content.replace(old_digest.encode(), new_digest.encode()) + path.write_bytes(content) + staged_digest = export.sha256_bytes((target / event / "STAGED.jsonl").read_bytes()) + staging_path = target / event / "STAGING_MANIFEST.json" + staging = json.loads(staging_path.read_bytes()) + staging["staged_sha256"] = staged_digest + staging_path.write_bytes(export.canonical_json(staging)) + staging_digest = export.sha256_bytes(staging_path.read_bytes()) + run_digest = export.sha256_bytes(run_path.read_bytes()) + provenance_path = target / event / "COMPARISON_PROVENANCE.json" + provenance = json.loads(provenance_path.read_bytes()) + provenance["run_manifest_sha256"] = run_digest + provenance["staged_sha256"] = staged_digest + provenance["staging_manifest_sha256"] = staging_digest + for name in provenance["outputs_sha256"]: + provenance["outputs_sha256"][name] = export.sha256_bytes( + (target / event / name).read_bytes() + ) + provenance_path.write_bytes(export.canonical_json(provenance)) + provenance_digest = export.sha256_bytes(provenance_path.read_bytes()) + manifest_path = target / "NAMESPACE_MANIFEST.json" + manifest = json.loads(manifest_path.read_bytes()) + for relative in manifest["files"]: + path = target / relative + if path.is_file(): + manifest["files"][relative] = export.sha256_bytes(path.read_bytes()) + manifest_path.write_bytes(export.canonical_json(manifest)) + receipt_path = target / variants.RECEIPT_NAME + receipt = json.loads(receipt_path.read_bytes()) + receipt["results"]["manifest_sha256"] = export.sha256_bytes( + manifest_path.read_bytes() + ) + event_receipt = receipt["corpus"]["events"][event] + event_receipt["run_manifest_sha256"] = run_digest + event_receipt["staging_manifest_sha256"] = staging_digest + event_receipt["comparison_provenance_sha256"] = provenance_digest + receipt_path.write_bytes(export.canonical_json(interface.seal_receipt(receipt))) + + +def assert_namespace_fully_resealed(target: Path, event: str) -> None: + receipt = json.loads((target / variants.RECEIPT_NAME).read_bytes()) + interface.validate(receipt, interface.RECEIPT_SCHEMA_ID) + manifest_path = target / "NAMESPACE_MANIFEST.json" + assert receipt["results"]["manifest_sha256"] == export.sha256_bytes( + manifest_path.read_bytes() + ) + manifest = json.loads(manifest_path.read_bytes()) + for relative, digest in manifest["files"].items(): + path = target / relative + if path.is_file(): + assert digest == export.sha256_bytes(path.read_bytes()), relative + run_path = target / event / "RUN_MANIFEST.json" + run = json.loads(run_path.read_bytes()) + for path, digest in run["artifacts"].items(): + assert digest == export.sha256_bytes( + (target / event / Path(path).name).read_bytes() + ), path + staged_path = target / event / "STAGED.jsonl" + staged = [json.loads(line) for line in staged_path.read_bytes().splitlines()] + comparisons = json.loads((target / event / "COMPARISON.json").read_bytes()) + comparison_csv = list(csv.DictReader((target / event / "COMPARISON.csv").open())) + for rows, field in ( + (staged, "artifact_path"), + (comparisons, "artifact"), + (comparison_csv, "artifact"), + ): + for row in rows: + if row.get(field): + assert row["artifact_sha256"] == run["artifacts"][row[field]] + staging_path = target / event / "STAGING_MANIFEST.json" + staging = json.loads(staging_path.read_bytes()) + assert staging["staged_sha256"] == export.sha256_bytes(staged_path.read_bytes()) + provenance_path = target / event / "COMPARISON_PROVENANCE.json" + provenance = json.loads(provenance_path.read_bytes()) + assert provenance["run_manifest_sha256"] == export.sha256_bytes( + run_path.read_bytes() + ) + assert provenance["staged_sha256"] == staging["staged_sha256"] + assert provenance["staging_manifest_sha256"] == export.sha256_bytes( + staging_path.read_bytes() + ) + for name, digest in provenance["outputs_sha256"].items(): + assert digest == export.sha256_bytes((target / event / name).read_bytes()) + event_receipt = receipt["corpus"]["events"][event] + assert event_receipt["run_manifest_sha256"] == provenance["run_manifest_sha256"] + assert ( + event_receipt["staging_manifest_sha256"] + == provenance["staging_manifest_sha256"] + ) + assert event_receipt["comparison_provenance_sha256"] == export.sha256_bytes( + provenance_path.read_bytes() + ) + + +def test_an_identity_path_changed_without_its_digest_is_refused(tmp_path): + record, _ = sealed_copy(tmp_path) + record["identity"]["dataset"]["path"] = "unsealed.h5" + with pytest.raises(export.ExportError, match="identity_sha256 differs"): + export.Namespace(record, root=tmp_path) + + +def test_unsealed_data_years_are_refused(tmp_path): + record, _ = sealed_copy(tmp_path) + record["data_years"] = record["data_years"][:-1] + with pytest.raises(export.ExportError, match="data years differ"): + export.write_export( + record, [EVENT], root=tmp_path, output_root=tmp_path / "out" + ) + + +def test_a_missing_sealed_event_cannot_disappear_from_the_default_export(tmp_path): + record = variants.get_variant(FIRST) + source = variants.namespace_root(record) + target = variants.namespace_root(record, root=tmp_path) + shutil.copytree(source, target) + requirements = tmp_path / record["requirements"]["path"] + requirements.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + shutil.copy2(ROOT / record["requirements"]["path"], requirements) + for event in json.loads((source / variants.CORPUS_NAME).read_bytes())["events"]: + run = json.loads((source / event / "RUN_MANIFEST.json").read_bytes()) + registry = tmp_path / run["registry_path"] + registry.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + shutil.copy2(ROOT / run["registry_path"], registry) + (target / EVENT / "RUN_MANIFEST.json").unlink() + with pytest.raises( + export.ExportError, match="RUN_MANIFEST.json: sealed file is missing" + ): + export.write_export(record, root=tmp_path, output_root=tmp_path / "out") + + +def test_an_incomplete_integrity_receipt_is_refused(tmp_path): + record, target = sealed_copy(tmp_path) + path = target / variants.RECEIPT_NAME + receipt = json.loads(path.read_bytes()) + assert receipt["status"] == "complete" + receipt["integrity"]["status"] = "incomplete" + path.write_bytes(export.canonical_json(receipt)) + with pytest.raises(export.ExportError, match="not a complete seal"): + export.Namespace(record, root=tmp_path) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize( + "malformation", ["missing_year", "duplicate_year", "missing_measure"] +) +def test_resealed_incomplete_or_duplicate_artifact_years_are_refused( + tmp_path, malformation +): + record, target = sealed_copy(tmp_path) + run_path = target / EVENT / "RUN_MANIFEST.json" + run = json.loads(run_path.read_bytes()) + first, second = sorted(run["artifacts"])[:2] + if malformation == "duplicate_year": + path = tmp_path / second + artifact = json.loads(path.read_bytes()) + artifact["year"] = json.loads((tmp_path / first).read_bytes())["year"] + path.write_bytes(export.canonical_json(artifact)) + message = "duplicate artifact measure/year" + else: + key = json.loads((tmp_path / first).read_bytes())["measure_key"] + for path in list(run["artifacts"]): + if path == first or ( + malformation == "missing_measure" + and json.loads((tmp_path / path).read_bytes())["measure_key"] == key + ): + del run["artifacts"][path] + message = "expected supported-year grid" + run_path.write_bytes(export.canonical_json(run)) + reseal_namespace(target, EVENT) + with pytest.raises(export.ExportError, match=message): + export.write_export( + record, [EVENT], root=tmp_path, output_root=tmp_path / "out" + ) + + +def test_a_noncomputed_measure_cannot_own_constructed_obr_rows(tmp_path): + record, target = sealed_copy(tmp_path) + path = target / EVENT / "COMPARISON.csv" + reader = csv.DictReader(io.StringIO(path.read_text())) + rows = list(reader) + next(row for row in rows if row["status"] != export.CONSTRUCTED)["status"] = ( + export.CONSTRUCTED + ) + with path.open("w") as stream: + writer = csv.DictWriter(stream, fieldnames=reader.fieldnames) + writer.writeheader() + writer.writerows(rows) + reseal_namespace(target, EVENT) + with pytest.raises( + export.ExportError, match="noncomputed measure owns constructed" + ): + export.write_export( + record, [EVENT], root=tmp_path, output_root=tmp_path / "out" + ) + + +def test_a_sealed_copy_exports_the_committed_bytes(tmp_path): + record, _ = sealed_copy(tmp_path) + out = export.write_export( + record, [EVENT], root=tmp_path, output_root=tmp_path / "out" + ) + committed = export.EXPORT_ROOT / FIRST / f"{EVENT}.json" + assert (out / f"{EVENT}.json").read_bytes() == committed.read_bytes() + + +def flip_last_byte(path: Path) -> None: + data = bytearray(path.read_bytes()) + data[-2] = ord(" ") if data[-2] != ord(" ") else ord("\t") + path.write_bytes(bytes(data)) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize( + "victim,message", + [ + ("artifact", "does not match its sealed digest"), + ("COMPARISON.csv", "does not match its sealed digest"), + ("NAMESPACE_MANIFEST.json", "is not the sealed one"), + ("registry", "is not the registry this replay ran"), + ], +) +def test_a_tampered_input_is_refused(tmp_path, victim, message): + record, target = sealed_copy(tmp_path) + run = json.loads((target / EVENT / "RUN_MANIFEST.json").read_text()) + path = { + "artifact": tmp_path / min(run["artifacts"]), + "COMPARISON.csv": target / EVENT / "COMPARISON.csv", + "NAMESPACE_MANIFEST.json": target / "NAMESPACE_MANIFEST.json", + "registry": tmp_path / run["registry_path"], + }[victim] + flip_last_byte(path) + with pytest.raises(export.ExportError, match=message): + export.write_export( + record, [EVENT], root=tmp_path, output_root=tmp_path / "out" + ) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize( + "change", ["rates", "window", "evidence", "artifact_evidence", "missing_year_world"] +) +def test_a_revision_allows_only_its_recorded_window_change(tmp_path, change): + event = "autumn_budget_2024" + key = "autumn_budget_2024__capital_gains_main_rates_and_reliefs" + record, target = sealed_copy(tmp_path, event) + run_path = target / event / "RUN_MANIFEST.json" + run = json.loads(run_path.read_text()) + if change == "evidence": + run["construction_revisions"][key]["registry_sha256"] = "0" * 64 + run_path.write_bytes(export.canonical_json(run)) + else: + for artifact_path in (target / event).glob(f"{key}_*.json"): + artifact = json.loads(artifact_path.read_text()) + if change == "artifact_evidence": + artifact["construction_revision"]["revision_id"] = "unrecorded_revision" + else: + windows = artifact["parameter_reform_routes"]["baseline_world"][ + "submitted_reform" + ]["gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate"] + if change == "rates": + assert set(windows.values()) == {0.1} + for window in windows: + windows[window] = 0.99 + elif change == "window": + first = min(windows) + windows["2023-04-06.2036-04-05"] = windows.pop(first) + else: + del artifact["parameter_reform_routes"]["baseline_world"][ + "submitted_reform" + ]["gov.hmrc.cgt.basic_rate"] + artifact_path.write_bytes(export.canonical_json(artifact)) + if change == "missing_year_world": + break + reseal_namespace(target, event) + message = ( + "revision" if change in ("evidence", "artifact_evidence") else "construction" + ) + with pytest.raises(export.ExportError, match=message): + export.write_export( + record, [event], root=tmp_path, output_root=tmp_path / "out" + ) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("change", ["annual_windows", "current_law_entry_point"]) +def test_a_revision_must_use_its_engines_recorded_execution_route(tmp_path, change): + """The reviewer's accepted fixtures retain valid digests and revision evidence.""" + event = "autumn_budget_2024" + key = "autumn_budget_2024__capital_gains_main_rates_and_reliefs" + record, target = sealed_copy(tmp_path, event) + paths = sorted((target / event).glob(f"{key}_*.json")) + assert len(paths) == 6 + for path in paths: + artifact = json.loads(path.read_bytes()) + assert artifact["engine_version"] == "2.130.1" + route = artifact["parameter_reform_routes"]["baseline_world"] + assert route["entry_point"] == "construction_reform" + for windows in route["submitted_reform"].values(): + assert set(windows) == {"2024-04-06.2036-04-05"} + if change == "annual_windows": + route["submitted_reform"] = { + parameter: {"2024-01-01.2035-12-31": next(iter(windows.values()))} + for parameter, windows in route["submitted_reform"].items() + } + else: + route["entry_point"] = "certified_current_law" + path.write_bytes(export.canonical_json(artifact)) + reseal_namespace(target, event) + assert_namespace_fully_resealed(target, event) + with pytest.raises( + export.ExportError, + match="construction" if change == "annual_windows" else "entry point", + ): + export.write_export( + record, [event], root=tmp_path, output_root=tmp_path / "out" + ) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize( + "event,key", + [ + ( + EVENT, + "spring_statement_2025__uc_health_element_freeze_and_new_claimant_cut", + ), + (EVENT, "spring_statement_2025__uc_standard_allowance_above_inflation"), + ("autumn_budget_2024", "autumn_budget_2024__private_school_vat_20pct"), + ], +) +@pytest.mark.parametrize("world", ["baseline_world", "reform_world"]) +@pytest.mark.parametrize("alternative", [0, 1]) +def test_unrevised_worlds_must_name_the_entry_point_their_reform_uses( + tmp_path, event, key, world, alternative +): + record, target = sealed_copy(tmp_path, event) + points = { + "built_simulation_scenario", + "construction_reform", + "certified_current_law", + } + paths = sorted((target / event).glob(f"{key}_*.json")) + assert paths + for path in paths: + artifact = json.loads(path.read_bytes()) + assert artifact.get("construction_revision") is None + route = artifact["parameter_reform_routes"][world] + route["entry_point"] = sorted(points - {route["entry_point"]})[alternative] + path.write_bytes(export.canonical_json(artifact)) + # All years agree on the wrong entry point; agreement alone must not pass. + reseal_namespace(target, event) + with pytest.raises(export.ExportError, match="entry point"): + export.write_export( + record, [event], root=tmp_path, output_root=tmp_path / "out" + ) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("source", ["premises", "run", "artifact"]) +def test_resealed_engine_versions_must_agree_with_the_certified_identity( + tmp_path, source +): + record, target = sealed_copy(tmp_path) + run_path = target / EVENT / "RUN_MANIFEST.json" + run = json.loads(run_path.read_bytes()) + path = { + "premises": target / "CONSTRUCTION_PREMISES.json", + "run": run_path, + "artifact": tmp_path / min(run["artifacts"]), + }[source] + document = json.loads(path.read_bytes()) + engine = document["engine"] if source == "premises" else document + field = "policyengine_uk" if source == "premises" else "engine_version" + assert engine[field] == "2.130.1" + engine[field] = "999.0.0" + path.write_bytes(export.canonical_json(document)) + reseal_namespace(target, EVENT) + with pytest.raises(export.ExportError, match="engine"): + export.write_export( + record, [EVENT], root=tmp_path, output_root=tmp_path / "out" + ) + + +def test_an_engine_without_verified_scenario_capability_is_refused(monkeypatch): + record = variants.get_variant(FIRST) + version = record["identity"]["packages"]["policyengine-uk"]["version"] + monkeypatch.delitem(export.SCENARIO_DATED_REFORMS, version) + with pytest.raises(export.ExportError, match="unverified Scenario route"): + export.Namespace(record) + + +def test_legacy_and_uncertified_variants_are_refused(): + document = variants.load_document() + legacy = next(v for v in document["variants"] if variants.is_legacy(v)) + with pytest.raises(export.ExportError, match="legacy"): + export.Namespace(legacy) + candidate = dict(variants.get_variant(FIRST), status="candidate") + with pytest.raises(export.ExportError, match="not certified"): + export.Namespace(candidate) + + +def test_the_default_variant_is_the_newest_certified_namespace(): + document = variants.load_document() + newest = [v for v in document["variants"] if v["status"] == "certified"][-1] + assert export.default_variant(document)["variant_id"] == newest["variant_id"] + + +# --- properties of the helpers --------------------------------------------------- + +decimals = st.decimals( + min_value=Decimal("-1e15"), max_value=Decimal("1e15"), places=17, allow_nan=False +) +correctness = settings(deadline=None, suppress_health_check=[HealthCheck.too_slow]) + + +@correctness +@given(decimals) +def test_decimal_text_round_trips_without_an_exponent(value): + text = export.decimal_text(value) + assert Decimal(text) == value + assert "E" not in text.upper() and text != "-0" + + +@correctness +@given(st.lists(decimals.map(abs), min_size=1, max_size=40)) +def test_shares_of_a_partition_sum_to_exactly_one(parts): + with export.exact(): + whole = sum(parts, Decimal(0)) + shares = [export.share_text(p, whole) for p in parts] + if whole == 0: + assert shares == [None] * len(parts) + else: + assert sum(Fraction(s) for s in shares) == 1 + + +@correctness +@given(st.lists(decimals, max_size=200)) +def test_exact_sums_never_round(values): + with export.exact(): + total = sum(values, Decimal(0)) + assert Fraction(total) == sum((Fraction(v) for v in values), Fraction(0)) + + +windows = st.sampled_from( + [f"{y}-01-01.{y}-12-31" for y in range(2024, 2031)] + ["2024-01-01.2035-12-31"] +) +reforms = st.dictionaries( + st.sampled_from(["gov.a", "gov.b.c", "gov.d"]), + st.dictionaries(windows, st.integers(0, 3), min_size=1, max_size=3), + max_size=3, +) + + +@correctness +@given(st.lists(reforms, min_size=1, max_size=5), st.randoms()) +def test_union_of_consistent_years_is_order_free(per_year, random): + merged: dict = {} + consistent = [] + for reform in per_year: + if all( + merged.get(path, {}).get(window, value) == value + for path, ws in reform.items() + for window, value in ws.items() + ): + for path, ws in reform.items(): + merged.setdefault(path, {}).update(ws) + consistent.append(reform) + shuffled = list(consistent) + random.shuffle(shuffled) + expected = ( + {p: dict(sorted(w.items())) for p, w in sorted(merged.items())} + if consistent + else None + ) + assert export.union_reforms(consistent, "t") == expected + assert export.union_reforms(shuffled + [None], "t") == expected + + +@correctness +@given(reforms.filter(bool)) +def test_a_year_that_disagrees_is_refused(reform): + path, ws = next(iter(reform.items())) + window, value = next(iter(ws.items())) + other = {path: {window: value + 1}} + with pytest.raises(export.ExportError, match="years disagree"): + export.union_reforms([reform, other], "t") + + +# --- the accounting against an independent implementation --------------------- + + +def reference_accounting(measures: list[dict]) -> tuple[dict, dict]: + """The recorded and exported accounts, computed independently with Fractions.""" + + def empty() -> dict: + return {"rows": 0, "net": Fraction(0), "abs": Fraction(0), "measures": 0} + + by_class = {c: empty() for c in export.CLASSES} + gaps = {k: empty() for k in export.GAP_KINDS} + by_fy = {} + for measure in measures: + classification = measure["classification"] + by_class[classification]["measures"] += 1 + if classification == "not_expressible": + gaps[measure["gap_kind"]]["measures"] += 1 + for row in measure["source_rows"]: + row_class = row.get("classification", classification) + accounts = [by_class[row_class], by_fy.setdefault(row["fy"], empty())] + if row_class == "not_expressible": + accounts.append(gaps[row.get("gap_kind", measure.get("gap_kind"))]) + value = Fraction(row["value_gbp_decimal"]) + for account in accounts: + account["rows"] += 1 + account["net"] += value + account["abs"] += abs(value) + rows = sum(a["rows"] for a in by_class.values()) + net = sum((a["net"] for a in by_class.values()), Fraction(0)) + absolute = sum((a["abs"] for a in by_class.values()), Fraction(0)) + + def text(f: Fraction) -> str: + value = format(Decimal(f.numerator) / Decimal(f.denominator), "f") + return value.rstrip("0").rstrip(".") if "." in value else value + + def balance(count: int, net: Fraction, absolute: Fraction) -> dict: + return { + "rows_in": count, + "rows_classified": count, + "net_gbp_in_decimal": text(net), + "net_gbp_classified_decimal": text(net), + "absolute_gbp_in_decimal": text(absolute), + "absolute_gbp_classified_decimal": text(absolute), + } + + def share(part: Fraction | int, whole: Fraction | int) -> str | None: + if whole == 0: + return None + value = Fraction(part) / Fraction(whole) + return f"{value.numerator}/{value.denominator}" + + def render(account: dict) -> dict: + return { + "rows": account["rows"], + "measures": account["measures"], + "net_gbp_decimal": text(account["net"]), + "absolute_gbp_decimal": text(account["abs"]), + "share_of_absolute": share(account["abs"], absolute), + "share_of_measures": share(account["measures"], len(measures)), + } + + # Fractions of finite decimals divide exactly at this precision. + with export.exact(): + labels = { + "amount_basis": "test", + "sign_convention": "positive means a gain to the Exchequer", + } + recorded = { + **labels, + **balance(rows, net, absolute), + "by_class": { + c: { + "rows": a["rows"], + "net_gbp_decimal": text(a["net"]), + "absolute_gbp_decimal": text(a["abs"]), + "measures": a["measures"], + } + for c, a in by_class.items() + }, + "by_fy": { + fy: balance(a["rows"], a["net"], a["abs"]) for fy, a in by_fy.items() + }, + } + expected = { + **labels, + "by_class": {c: render(a) for c, a in by_class.items()}, + "not_expressible_by_gap_kind": {k: render(a) for k, a in gaps.items()}, + "totals": { + "measures": len(measures), + "rows": rows, + "net_gbp_decimal": text(net), + "absolute_gbp_decimal": text(absolute), + }, + } + return recorded, expected + + +row_strategy = st.builds( + lambda classification, gap_kind, value, fy: { + "classification": classification, + "gap_kind": gap_kind if classification == "not_expressible" else None, + "value_gbp_decimal": str(value), + "fy": fy, + }, + st.sampled_from(export.CLASSES), + st.sampled_from(export.GAP_KINDS), + decimals, + st.sampled_from(["2024-25", "2025-26", "2026-27"]), +) +measure_strategy = st.builds( + lambda classification, gap_kind, rows: { + "classification": classification, + "gap_kind": gap_kind if classification == "not_expressible" else None, + "source_rows": rows, + }, + st.sampled_from(export.CLASSES), + st.sampled_from(export.GAP_KINDS), + st.lists(row_strategy, max_size=8), +) + + +@settings(correctness, max_examples=200) +@example( + [ + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "gap_kind": "construction_pending", + "source_rows": [ + { + "classification": "not_expressible", + "gap_kind": "model_or_data_gap", + "value_gbp_decimal": "-1.25", + "fy": "2024-25", + }, + { + "classification": "expressible", + "value_gbp_decimal": "2", + "fy": "2025-26", + }, + ], + } + ] +) +@given(st.lists(measure_strategy, min_size=1, max_size=12)) +def test_accounting_agrees_with_a_fraction_reference(measures): + recorded, expected = reference_accounting(measures) + registry = { + "event_slug": "generated", + "measures": measures, + "accounting": recorded, + } + assert export.accounting(registry) == expected + + +@correctness +@given( + st.lists(measure_strategy, min_size=1, max_size=6), st.sampled_from(export.CLASSES) +) +def test_accounting_that_differs_from_the_registry_is_refused(measures, victim): + recorded, _ = reference_accounting(measures) + # Exact, or a large net would round the perturbation away. + with export.exact(): + recorded["by_class"][victim]["net_gbp_decimal"] = str( + Decimal(recorded["by_class"][victim]["net_gbp_decimal"]) + Decimal("1e-20") + ) + registry = {"event_slug": "generated", "measures": measures, "accounting": recorded} + with pytest.raises(export.ExportError, match="accounting differs"): + export.accounting(registry) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize( + "field", + [ + "rows_classified", + "net_gbp_classified_decimal", + "absolute_gbp_classified_decimal", + "by_fy.rows_in", + "by_fy.rows_classified", + "by_fy.net_gbp_in_decimal", + "by_fy.net_gbp_classified_decimal", + "by_fy.absolute_gbp_in_decimal", + "by_fy.absolute_gbp_classified_decimal", + ], +) +def test_recorded_accounting_totals_and_fiscal_years_are_verified(field): + registry = registry_of(documents(FIRST)[EVENT]) + account = registry["accounting"] + if field.startswith("by_fy."): + account = next(iter(account["by_fy"].values())) + field = field.removeprefix("by_fy.") + if field.startswith("rows_"): + account[field] += 1 + else: + with export.exact(): + account[field] = str(Decimal(account[field]) + Decimal("1e-20")) + with pytest.raises(export.ExportError, match="accounting .*differ"): + export.accounting(registry) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("change", ["missing", "extra"]) +def test_recorded_accounting_fiscal_years_must_match_the_rows(change): + registry = registry_of(documents(FIRST)[EVENT]) + by_fy = registry["accounting"]["by_fy"] + year = next(iter(by_fy)) + if change == "missing": + del by_fy[year] + else: + by_fy["2099-00"] = dict(by_fy[year]) + with pytest.raises(export.ExportError, match="fiscal-year accounting differs"): + export.accounting(registry)