From 46b370aa4d314476b1bf575210fe18aa7ca9ca1b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: vahid-ahmadi Date: Fri, 23 Oct 2026 19:55:01 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 01/12] Draw is_apprentice for employees aged 21 to 24 on the UK spine (#1372) policyengine-uk#2505 zero-rates employer NICs for relevant apprentices under 25 (SSCBA 1992 s.9B) through the is_apprentice input, which no UK dataset supplies: the FRS 2022-23 to 2024-25 adult tables carry no apprenticeship variable. frs_person_draws now draws it for employees aged 21 to 24 at DfE's England apprenticeship participation per head aged 19 to 24 (5,992 per 100,000 in 2024/25), converted to a rate among the eligible employees at the frame's household weights. Younger and older people keep False, so is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund do not move for them. The contract gains apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24, the stage spec and graph declare the output and the employment_status read, the export surface allows person.is_apprentice, the identity-stability tool passes the household weights, and the gate-battery and input-coverage pins move. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- changelog.d/uk-apprentice-draw.added.md | 1 + .../src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json | 1 + .../uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json | 44 ++--- .../src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json | 15 +- .../src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml | 11 +- .../microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json | 22 +++ .../build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py | 124 +++++++++++- .../src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/graph.py | 5 +- .../build/uk_runtime/terminal_gates.py | 1 + .../engine/uk/test_uk_tfc_routed_share.py | 8 +- .../engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py | 186 ++++++++++++++++++ .../engine_free/uk/test_uk_source_stages.py | 2 + .../uk/test_uk_stochastic_tools.py | 1 + .../uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py | 3 + .../src/microcosm/data/contract.py | 10 +- .../microcosm_build/uk_frs_stochastic.py | 2 + tools/verify_uk_identity_stability.py | 17 +- 17 files changed, 417 insertions(+), 36 deletions(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/uk-apprentice-draw.added.md create mode 100644 packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py diff --git a/changelog.d/uk-apprentice-draw.added.md b/changelog.d/uk-apprentice-draw.added.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..5b2b9aa1f5 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/uk-apprentice-draw.added.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Draw `is_apprentice` on the UK spine for employees aged 21 to 24, at DfE's England apprenticeship participation per head aged 19 to 24 (5,992 per 100,000 in 2024/25), so the employer NICs zero rate for apprentices under 25 (SSCBA 1992 s.9B, policyengine-uk#2505) reaches them (#1372). The FRS has no apprenticeship variable; other ages keep the default False. diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json index 07fada7bff..03877fa956 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json @@ -1102,6 +1102,7 @@ "person.student_loan_balance", "person.student_loan_plan", "person.tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", + "person.is_apprentice", "person.trading_loss", "person.uc_is_in_startup_period", "person.uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json index 27cd9de94f..8b59fdc035 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json @@ -470,7 +470,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains incidence anchor moves the mass of non-liable clone households back to their paired originals until the sub-exempt and loss-making clone mass match the Advani-Summers reporter composition at the redrawn liable mass; every pair's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "Advani and Summers (2020), Capital Gains and UK Inequality, CAGE Working Paper 465", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support, the HMRC Table 3 redrawn gains on the spine and Advani-Summers capital-gains incidence" @@ -493,7 +493,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "Advani and Summers (2020), Capital Gains and UK Inequality, CAGE Working Paper 465", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support, and Advani-Summers capital-gains incidence" @@ -516,7 +516,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains residential split divides every household carrying liable gainers into arms weighted by the solved residential probabilities, one arm per subset of residential gainers; every household's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/capital-gains-tax-statistics", "survey": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics 2026 release, Table 8 (UK residential property disposals, 2024-25, administrative) on the amounts the Table 3 redraw placed" @@ -538,7 +538,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains support split divides the wealthiest households of each HMRC Table 3 income band into light copies at equal weight; every household's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics, July 2026 release, Table 3 for 2024-25, via the vendored conditioning facts", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support and HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics Table 3 (2024-25 individuals by size of gain and taxable income)" @@ -567,7 +567,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "ETB public-services imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 8856 Effects of Taxes and Benefits household tab, DfT rail fare index, and public NHS activity/cost table.", "survey": "Effects of Taxes and Benefits 1977-2024 and NHS age-gender public table" @@ -587,7 +587,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "ETB VAT expenditure-rate imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 8856 Effects of Taxes and Benefits household tab and cited VAT anchor resource.", "survey": "Effects of Taxes and Benefits 1977-2024" @@ -609,7 +609,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "High-value home support divides every owner household in the top value stratum of its region into light copies at equal weight; every household's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "Microcosm structural operator (microcosm#1240 fix 1); no publisher input", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 and SPI synthetic support, after the WAS wealth draw and the regional property uprating" @@ -630,7 +630,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "CGT asset-type assignment on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/capital-gains-tax-statistics", "survey": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics 2026 release, Table 8 (UK residential property disposals, 2024-25, administrative), Table 4.1 (individuals claiming Business Asset Disposal Relief or Investors' Relief by band of qualifying gain, 2024-25, administrative) and Table 7 (disposals, proceeds and gains by asset type, 2023-24, sample-based), vendored from the pinned Chronicle feed" @@ -654,7 +654,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "conditioning_resource": "hmrc_cgt_conditioning_facts.json", "conditioning_resource_sha256": "054b1ee1a66cae6ed3793053eb0d3b9eea6b3f8976953479948ae11f7eedcd35", @@ -744,7 +744,7 @@ "full_frs_tei_band_unavailable" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "hmrc_surface": "2023-24", "mapped_build_period": "2024", @@ -786,7 +786,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "LCFS consumption imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 9603 Living Costs and Food Survey 2024-25 (2nd edition) household/person tabs and the vendored Chronicle facts for NEED 2024 mean kWh, DESNZ Energy Trends and QEP average prices paid for calendar 2024, road-fuel outturn (DESNZ, HMRC, ONS Consumer Trends) and road fuel by vehicle type (DESNZ), ONS Consumer Trends household spending by COICOP division, the DfT VEH1103 licensed-car stock, NTS bus use, and the DfT and devolved bus finance tables and fares indices.", "survey": "Living Costs and Food Survey 2024-25" @@ -812,7 +812,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "NTS bus-travel imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "Department for Transport National Travel Survey, UK Data Service SN 5340 (End User Licence, 19th edition, November 2025), DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-5340-19; local licensed tab files (household, individual, trip); England residents only from 2013.", "survey": "National Travel Survey 2002-2024" @@ -832,7 +832,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Private-school attendance stored on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "policyengine-uk attends_private_school (the gov.simulation.private_school_vat attendance rates and factor), evaluated by the pinned engine", "survey": "policyengine-uk private-school attendance imputation, stored at the spine's weights" @@ -855,7 +855,7 @@ "property_finance_costs" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/property-rental-income-statistics", "survey": "Survey of Personal Incomes Public Use Tape 2022-23 and HMRC Property Rental Income Statistics 2026 (tax year 2024-25)" @@ -876,7 +876,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Annual property purchases imputed on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-stamp-tax-statistics", "survey": "HMRC Annual Stamp Tax Statistics 2024 to 2025 (corrected 11 March 2026), Tables 6b, 8a and 8b" @@ -899,7 +899,7 @@ "property_wealth" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "uk/high_value_home_value_knots.json, built by tools/build_uk_high_value_home_stock.py from PolicyEngine/chronicle#343's registrations", "survey": "HM Land Registry Price Paid latest sales uprated with the UK House Price Index, owner-weighted by region (the dense value node's knots, region level)" @@ -923,7 +923,7 @@ "non_residential_property_value" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "MHCLG dwellings and the UK House Price Index regional average price averaged over the twelve months of calendar 2024 from the July 2026 full file, the frame's valuation basis, so the engine's annual uprating from 2024 projects the value once (microcosm#1240 fix 5).", "survey": "Public regional property reference" @@ -950,7 +950,7 @@ "employment_income" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC, Salary sacrifice reform for pension contributions effective from 6 April 2029", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 salary-sacrifice respondents and HMRC salary-sacrifice reform analysis" @@ -983,7 +983,7 @@ "household_source_id" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "Reserved SPI support households for the HMRC Table 2.5 total-income bands from GBP 200,000, stacked at the published band taxpayer count over the donors per band (PolicyEngine/chronicle#280 lane).", "survey": "Survey of Personal Incomes Public Use Tape 2022-23 and HMRC Income Tax liabilities statistics July 2026 Table 2.5" @@ -1005,7 +1005,7 @@ "student_loan_plan" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "Explore Education Statistics Table 6a, Higher education total", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 and Student Loans Company borrower forecasts for England" @@ -1027,7 +1027,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "WAS Lifetime ISA imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "Office for National Statistics Wealth and Assets Survey, UK Data Service SN 7215, DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-7215-20; local licensed round-8 person and household tabs (interviews April 2020 to March 2022, Great Britain).", "survey": "Wealth and Assets Survey round 8" @@ -1062,7 +1062,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "WAS wealth imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "88d7050e7db60faecb3d1318ed33f5b426f7e6fdd5e41da645612b17313f338b", + "source_manifest_sha256": "47fc37b12db7527f908bf8aee3096d4670013bf085ffbc42622b8715ecd12e62", "source_vintages": { "source": "Office for National Statistics Wealth and Assets Survey, UK Data Service SN 7215, DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-7215-20; local licensed 2006-22 household tab.", "survey": "Wealth and Assets Survey round 8" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json index 2fb5e3d1a0..452ae50c08 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json @@ -1181,19 +1181,30 @@ "contract_key": "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", "period_source": "build_year", "dtype": "float64" + }, + { + "kind": "assign_binary_from_rate", + "output": "is_apprentice", + "draw": "is_apprentice", + "rate_key": "apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24", + "assignment_unit": "person", + "eligibility": "employees (employment_status FT_EMPLOYED or PT_EMPLOYED, from frs_employment) aged 21 to 24: SSCBA 1992 s.9A already zero-rates every earner under 21 and s.9B ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so no other age changes employer NICs, and leaving them False keeps is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged", + "rate_derivation": "the contract's apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24 is DfE's England participation per head aged 19 to 24, taken as uniform across those ages and UK-wide; at the frame's household weights it becomes the rate among the eligible, p = min(1, r * W(age 21 to 24) / W(eligible)), and is_apprentice = eligible AND u < p, so the weighted flags equal r times the weighted population aged 21 to 24", + "seed": 0 } ], "outputs": [ "would_claim_marriage_allowance", "would_claim_scp", "attends_private_school_random_draw", - "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" + "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", + "is_apprentice" ], "nonnegative_outputs": [ "attends_private_school_random_draw", "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" ], - "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced." + "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced. is_apprentice has no FRS source (no apprenticeship variable in the 2022-23 to 2024-25 adult tables; TRAIN2, NI3TRAIN and TRAINEE code government employment schemes) and is drawn from the DfE rate for employees aged 21 to 24 only." }, { "stage": "frs_household_draws", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml index de937a0992..34c1a34fa6 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml @@ -1062,15 +1062,24 @@ stages: contract_key: tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share period_source: build_year dtype: float64 + - kind: assign_binary_from_rate + output: is_apprentice + draw: is_apprentice + rate_key: apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24 + assignment_unit: person + eligibility: 'employees (employment_status FT_EMPLOYED or PT_EMPLOYED, from frs_employment) aged 21 to 24: SSCBA 1992 s.9A already zero-rates every earner under 21 and s.9B ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so no other age changes employer NICs, and leaving them False keeps is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged' + rate_derivation: 'the contract''s apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24 is DfE''s England participation per head aged 19 to 24, taken as uniform across those ages and UK-wide; at the frame''s household weights it becomes the rate among the eligible, p = min(1, r * W(age 21 to 24) / W(eligible)), and is_apprentice = eligible AND u < p, so the weighted flags equal r times the weighted population aged 21 to 24' + seed: 0 outputs: - would_claim_marriage_allowance - would_claim_scp - attends_private_school_random_draw - tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share + - is_apprentice nonnegative_outputs: - attends_private_school_random_draw - tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share - notes: Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced. + notes: 'Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced. is_apprentice has no FRS source (no apprenticeship variable in the 2022-23 to 2024-25 adult tables; TRAIN2, NI3TRAIN and TRAINEE code government employment schemes) and is drawn from the DfE rate for employees aged 21 to 24 only.' - stage: frs_household_draws survey: Family Resources Survey 2024-25 source: Sourced UK stochastic contract rates and identity-keyed deterministic draws. diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json index 0bb240842a..546533cb07 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json @@ -965,6 +965,28 @@ "derivation": "sum(monthly children with used accounts) / annual-unique children / 12, per HMRC financial year; quality report defines a used account", "citation": "A calibration adjustment, not a measured routed-expenditure share: an account-active-duration proxy assuming uniform spend through the year and full routing in active months; HMRC warns payment dates need not be care dates. Assigned as the published mean, no invented distribution. Denominator is the whole year; the engine defines the share over the eligible period, and the two coincide while tax_free_childcare_eligible_declaration_periods is 0 or 4. HMRC's used-account definition changed from April 2025 and applies to annual figures from FY2024-25." } + }, + { + "key": "apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24", + "output": "is_apprentice", + "entity": "person", + "values": { + "2019-08-01": 0.06017, + "2020-08-01": 0.06101, + "2021-08-01": 0.06295, + "2022-08-01": 0.06244, + "2023-08-01": 0.05976, + "2024-08-01": 0.05992 + }, + "source": { + "source": "DfE Apprenticeships statistics, academic year 2024/25, data set 'Geography Region - starts, achievements, participation, population by age, level' (app-geography-population-202425-q4.csv), National rows, apps_level Total, age_summary 19-24", + "agency": "Department for Education", + "status": "sourced_administrative_derived", + "url": "https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-catalogue/data-set/e5a4761f-434a-423a-bb0a-73ca3092dfc3", + "csv_sha256": "be614d4acb481b661623f613df310a5148c1500279bdedd193af5d3571972cf8", + "derivation": "participation_rate_per_100000_population / 100000 for England, ages 19 to 24, per academic year (2024/25: 252,960 participants over a population estimate of 4,221,504 gives 5,992 per 100,000)", + "citation": "Apprentices per head of population aged 19 to 24 in England. DfE ages are age at the start of the apprenticeship and participation counts everyone in learning at any point in the academic year, so the rate is an upper bound on the share of 21- to 24-year-olds who are apprentices at a point in time. DfE publishes no single-year split of 19 to 24, so the rate is taken as uniform across those ages, and England's rate is applied UK-wide until the Scottish (SDS Modern Apprenticeships), Welsh (Medr) and Northern Irish (ApprenticeshipsNI) series are added. frs_person_draws converts it to a rate among employees aged 21 to 24 at the frame's weights." + } } ], "continuous": [ diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py index 9c80c14aa0..c1f5bb8e80 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py @@ -1,4 +1,24 @@ -"""UK FRS person-grain stochastic assignments.""" +"""UK FRS person-grain stochastic assignments. + +``is_apprentice`` (microcosm#1372) has no FRS source: the 2022-23 +to 2024-25 adult tables carry no apprenticeship variable, and ``TRAIN2``, +``NI3TRAIN`` and ``TRAINEE`` code government employment schemes, not +apprenticeships. policyengine-uk zero-rates employer Class 1 NICs for a +relevant apprentice under 25 (SSCBA 1992 s.9B), and a person under 21 already +gets the s.9A zero rate by age, so the flag changes employer NICs only at ages +21 to 24. The stage draws it there, for employees only, at DfE's published +participation rate for apprentices aged 19 to 24 in England per head of +population (``apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24``), converted to a rate +among the eligible employees at the frame's own household weights: + + p = min(1, r * W(age 21 to 24) / W(employees aged 21 to 24)) + +so the weighted flags among 21- to 24-year-olds equal r times their weighted +population. Ages under 21 and from 25 keep the engine default (False), which +leaves ``is_in_non_advanced_education`` (child benefit and Universal Credit +qualifying young person status), ``minimum_wage``, Care to Learn and the 16 to +19 Bursary Fund unchanged for them. +""" from __future__ import annotations @@ -12,6 +32,7 @@ assign_binary_from_rate, stable_identity_uniforms, ) +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_employment import FRS_EMPSTATI_EMPLOYMENT_STATUS from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.national_frame import ( uk_household_weight_kind, uk_national_frame, @@ -26,11 +47,23 @@ "would_claim_scp", "attends_private_school_random_draw", "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", + "is_apprentice", ) FRS_PERSON_DRAW_NONNEGATIVE_OUTPUT_COLUMNS = ( "attends_private_school_random_draw", "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", ) +APPRENTICE_OUTPUT = "is_apprentice" +APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY = "apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24" +# SSCBA 1992 s.9A gives every earner under 21 the zero rate by age, and s.9B +# ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so only ages 21 to 24 are drawn. +APPRENTICE_MIN_AGE = 21 +APPRENTICE_MAX_AGE_EXCLUSIVE = 25 +APPRENTICE_EMPLOYEE_STATUSES = ("FT_EMPLOYED", "PT_EMPLOYED") +if not set(APPRENTICE_EMPLOYEE_STATUSES) <= set( + FRS_EMPSTATI_EMPLOYMENT_STATUS.values() +): + raise RuntimeError("apprentice employee statuses must be FRS EMPSTATI statuses.") UK_PERSON_DRAW_DECLARED_SEEDS = { output: 0 for output in FRS_PERSON_DRAW_OUTPUT_COLUMNS @@ -62,7 +95,14 @@ def add_frs_person_draws(frame: Frame, *, contract: UKTakeUpContract) -> Frame: ) _require_tax_free_childcare_routed_share_variable() person = frame.table("person").copy() - derived = derive_frs_person_draws(person, contract=contract) + if APPRENTICE_OUTPUT in person.columns: + raise ValueError( + f"{APPRENTICE_OUTPUT!r} is already stored: frs_person_draws is its " + "only writer." + ) + derived = derive_frs_person_draws( + person, contract=contract, person_weights=uk_person_household_weights(frame) + ) for column in FRS_PERSON_DRAW_OUTPUT_COLUMNS: person[column] = derived[column].to_numpy() result = uk_national_frame( @@ -79,8 +119,18 @@ def add_frs_person_draws(frame: Frame, *, contract: UKTakeUpContract) -> Frame: def derive_frs_person_draws( - person: pd.DataFrame, *, contract: UKTakeUpContract + person: pd.DataFrame, + *, + contract: UKTakeUpContract, + person_weights: np.ndarray | None = None, ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Return the stage's person draws. + + ``person_weights`` are each person's household weight; the stage passes + the frame's. Without them every person weighs one, which keeps the draws + themselves identity-keyed for callers that only check their stability. + """ + ids = person["person_id"].to_numpy() values = pd.DataFrame(index=person.index) values["would_claim_marriage_allowance"] = assign_binary_from_rate( @@ -105,9 +155,77 @@ def derive_frs_person_draws( values["tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share"] = contract.rate( "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", contract.build_year ) + values[APPRENTICE_OUTPUT] = derive_is_apprentice( + person, + rate=contract.rate(APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY, contract.build_year), + person_weights=person_weights, + ) return values +def derive_is_apprentice( + person: pd.DataFrame, + *, + rate: float, + person_weights: np.ndarray | None = None, +) -> np.ndarray: + """Draw ``is_apprentice`` for employees aged 21 to 24. + + ``rate`` is apprentices per head of population at those ages. It becomes a + rate among the eligible employees, ``rate * W(21 to 24) / W(eligible)``, + capped at one, so the weighted flags equal ``rate`` times the weighted + population aged 21 to 24 unless too few employees carry them. A person is + flagged when eligible and their identity-keyed uniform is below that rate. + """ + + if "employment_status" not in person.columns: + raise ValueError( + f"{APPRENTICE_OUTPUT} needs employment_status from frs_employment; " + "it would otherwise flag people who are not employees." + ) + if not 0.0 <= float(rate) <= 1.0: + raise ValueError(f"{APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY} must lie in [0, 1]; got {rate}.") + weights = ( + np.ones(len(person), dtype=float) + if person_weights is None + else np.asarray(person_weights, dtype=float) + ) + if weights.shape != (len(person),): + raise ValueError("person_weights must hold one weight per person.") + age = pd.to_numeric(person["age"], errors="coerce").to_numpy(dtype=float) + in_ages = (age >= APPRENTICE_MIN_AGE) & (age < APPRENTICE_MAX_AGE_EXCLUSIVE) + employee = ( + person["employment_status"] + .astype(str) + .isin(APPRENTICE_EMPLOYEE_STATUSES) + .to_numpy() + ) + eligible = in_ages & employee + eligible_mass = float(weights[eligible].sum()) + if eligible_mass <= 0: + return np.zeros(len(person), dtype=bool) + conditional = min(1.0, float(rate) * float(weights[in_ages].sum()) / eligible_mass) + return eligible & assign_binary_from_rate( + _draws(person["person_id"].to_numpy(), APPRENTICE_OUTPUT), conditional + ) + + +def uk_person_household_weights(frame: Frame) -> np.ndarray: + household_weights = frame.weights_for("household") + weight_by_household = dict( + zip( + frame.table("household")["household_id"].to_numpy(), + np.asarray(household_weights.values, dtype=float), + strict=True, + ) + ) + return ( + frame.table("person")["person_household_id"] + .map(weight_by_household) + .to_numpy(dtype=float) + ) + + def _require_tax_free_childcare_routed_share_variable() -> None: """Fail before export when an installed UK engine cannot consume the input.""" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/graph.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/graph.py index ac3791a674..b3cfde8f9b 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/graph.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/graph.py @@ -253,7 +253,9 @@ ) ) | frozenset({("benunit", "is_married")}), - "frs_person_draws": frozenset({("person", "age")}), + # is_apprentice draws employees aged 21 to 24 at a rate set by the + # frame's weights (microcosm#1372). + "frs_person_draws": frozenset({("person", "age"), ("person", "employment_status")}), "frs_household_draws": frozenset(), "frs_brma": None, "was_wealth": None, @@ -801,6 +803,7 @@ def _cells( _Cell("person", "would_claim_scp", "bool"), _Cell("person", "attends_private_school_random_draw", "float64"), _Cell("person", "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", "float64"), + _Cell("person", "is_apprentice", "bool"), ), "frs_household_draws": _cells( "household", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/terminal_gates.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/terminal_gates.py index bf18e42b5e..86182fba4f 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/terminal_gates.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/terminal_gates.py @@ -322,6 +322,7 @@ def __post_init__(self) -> None: "person.student_loan_balance", "person.student_loan_plan", "person.tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", + "person.is_apprentice", "person.trading_loss", "person.uc_is_in_startup_period", "person.uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_tfc_routed_share.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_tfc_routed_share.py index 9829a37c7d..e3ee91347c 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_tfc_routed_share.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_tfc_routed_share.py @@ -23,6 +23,8 @@ def _frame(): "person_benunit_id": [1], "person_household_id": [1], "age": [3], + # frs_person_draws reads it for is_apprentice (microcosm#1372). + "employment_status": ["CHILD"], "childcare_expenses": [1_000.0], "tax_free_childcare_uses_qualifying_provider": [True], "tax_free_childcare_qualifying_child": [True], @@ -64,7 +66,11 @@ def test_engine_and_manifest_define_person_input_contract() -> None: spec = load_country_spec("uk") stage = spec.sources.stage_map()["frs_person_draws"] assert "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" in stage.outputs - operation = stage.operations[-1] + (operation,) = ( + op + for op in stage.operations + if op.parameters.get("output") == "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" + ) assert operation.kind == "assign_period_constant" assert operation.parameters == { "contract_key": "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..1de393f375 --- /dev/null +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py @@ -0,0 +1,186 @@ +"""is_apprentice on the UK spine: employees aged 21 to 24 at DfE's rate.""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd +import pytest + +from microcosm.build.stochastic_assignment import stable_identity_uniforms +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_person_draws import ( + APPRENTICE_OUTPUT, + APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY, + UKFRSPersonDrawsStageTransform, + derive_is_apprentice, +) +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.national_frame import uk_national_frame +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.take_up_contract import load_uk_take_up_contract +from test_support.microcosm_build.uk_frs_stochastic import _Contract + +_STATUSES = ("FT_EMPLOYED", "PT_EMPLOYED", "FT_SELF_EMPLOYED", "STUDENT") + + +def _people(n_per_cell: int = 2000) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Every age from 18 to 30 crossed with four statuses.""" + + ages = np.arange(18, 31) + rows = [ + (age, status) for age in ages for status in _STATUSES for _ in range(n_per_cell) + ] + frame = pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=["age", "employment_status"]) + frame.insert(0, "person_id", np.arange(1, len(frame) + 1)) + return frame + + +def test_only_employees_aged_21_to_24_are_flagged() -> None: + person = _people() + + flags = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.06) + + age = person["age"].to_numpy() + employee = person["employment_status"].isin(["FT_EMPLOYED", "PT_EMPLOYED"]) + eligible = (age >= 21) & (age <= 24) & employee.to_numpy() + assert flags.dtype == bool + assert not flags[~eligible].any() + assert flags[eligible].any() + + +def test_flags_match_the_per_head_rate_over_ages_21_to_24() -> None: + person = _people() + rng = np.random.default_rng(0) + weights = rng.uniform(100.0, 3000.0, len(person)) + rate = 0.06 + + flags = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=rate, person_weights=weights) + + age = person["age"].to_numpy() + in_ages = (age >= 21) & (age <= 24) + # Half the people aged 21 to 24 are employees, so the rate among them is + # about 0.12, and the weighted flags are about 6% of the age group. + share = weights[flags].sum() / weights[in_ages].sum() + assert share == pytest.approx(rate, rel=0.05) + + +def test_draw_is_identity_keyed_and_uses_the_conditional_rate() -> None: + person = pd.DataFrame( + { + "person_id": [11, 12, 13, 14], + "age": [22, 22, 23, 40], + "employment_status": [ + "FT_EMPLOYED", + "STUDENT", + "PT_EMPLOYED", + "FT_EMPLOYED", + ], + } + ) + weights = np.array([1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0]) + rate = 0.2 + + flags = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=rate, person_weights=weights) + + # W(21 to 24) = 4 and W(eligible) = 3, so p = 0.2 * 4 / 3. + draws = stable_identity_uniforms( + person["person_id"].to_numpy(), seed=0, salt=APPRENTICE_OUTPUT + ) + expected = np.array([True, False, True, False]) & (draws < 0.2 * 4 / 3) + np.testing.assert_array_equal(flags, expected) + reordered = derive_is_apprentice( + person.iloc[::-1].reset_index(drop=True), + rate=rate, + person_weights=weights[::-1], + ) + np.testing.assert_array_equal(reordered, expected[::-1]) + + +def test_conditional_rate_is_capped_at_one() -> None: + person = pd.DataFrame( + { + "person_id": [1, 2, 3], + "age": [21, 22, 23], + "employment_status": ["FT_EMPLOYED", "UNEMPLOYED", "UNEMPLOYED"], + } + ) + + flags = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.9) + + np.testing.assert_array_equal(flags, [True, False, False]) + + +def test_no_eligible_employee_flags_nobody() -> None: + person = pd.DataFrame( + { + "person_id": [1, 2], + "age": [22, 30], + "employment_status": ["STUDENT", "FT_EMPLOYED"], + } + ) + + assert not derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.06).any() + + +def test_refuses_a_frame_without_employment_status() -> None: + person = pd.DataFrame({"person_id": [1], "age": [22]}) + + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="employment_status"): + derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.06) + + +def test_refuses_a_rate_outside_the_unit_interval() -> None: + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match=r"\[0, 1\]"): + derive_is_apprentice(_people(1), rate=1.5) + + +def _two_household_frame(**extra_person_columns): + person = pd.DataFrame( + { + "person_id": np.arange(1, 4001), + "person_benunit_id": np.arange(1, 4001), + "person_household_id": np.repeat([1, 2], 2000), + "age": np.tile([22, 23], 2000), + "employment_status": np.repeat(["FT_EMPLOYED", "STUDENT"], 2000), + **extra_person_columns, + } + ) + return uk_national_frame( + person=person, + benunit=pd.DataFrame({"benunit_id": np.arange(1, 4001), "is_married": False}), + household=pd.DataFrame( + { + "household_id": [1, 2], + "region": ["LONDON", "WALES"], + "household_weight": [1.0, 3.0], + } + ), + time_period="2024", + ) + + +def test_stage_flags_use_the_frame_household_weights() -> None: + stored = UKFRSPersonDrawsStageTransform(contract=_Contract(), stage=None)( + _two_household_frame() + ).table("person") + + # Household 1 holds the employees and weighs 1, household 2 the students + # and weighs 3, so p = 0.06 * 4 / 1 = 0.24 among the employees. + flags = stored[APPRENTICE_OUTPUT].to_numpy() + assert not flags[2000:].any() + assert flags[:2000].mean() == pytest.approx(0.24, abs=0.03) + + +def test_stage_refuses_a_stored_flag() -> None: + frame = _two_household_frame(is_apprentice=False) + + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="already stored"): + UKFRSPersonDrawsStageTransform(contract=_Contract(), stage=None)(frame) + + +def test_contract_carries_the_dfe_rate_for_the_build_year() -> None: + contract = load_uk_take_up_contract() + + entry = contract.entry(APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY) + + assert entry.raw["output"] == APPRENTICE_OUTPUT + assert entry.raw["entity"] == "person" + # DfE 2024/25: 252,960 participants aged 19 to 24 over 4,221,504 people. + assert contract.rate(APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY, contract.build_year) == 0.05992 diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_source_stages.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_source_stages.py index 3311f3be56..62d9c14731 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_source_stages.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_source_stages.py @@ -619,6 +619,7 @@ def test_e3_operation_kinds_are_declared_in_order(self) -> None: "assign_binary_from_banded_rates", "assign_uniform_draw", "assign_period_constant", + "assign_binary_from_rate", ] assert [op.kind for op in stages["frs_household_draws"].operations] == [ "assign_binary_from_rate", @@ -939,6 +940,7 @@ def test_engine_predictor_and_rewrite_constants_match_manifest(self) -> None: "extended_childcare_age_0_usage", "extended_childcare_age_1_usage", "marriage_allowance", + "apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24", "tv_ownership_rate", "tv_licence_evasion_rate", "first_time_buyer_rate", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stochastic_tools.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stochastic_tools.py index 26e524d8bb..10b6cd7346 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stochastic_tools.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stochastic_tools.py @@ -302,6 +302,7 @@ def continuous_entry(self, key: str): "person_benunit_id": [10, 10, 20, 30], "person_household_id": [1, 1, 1, 2], "age": [5, 6, 40, 70], + "employment_status": ["CHILD", "CHILD", "FT_EMPLOYED", "RETIRED"], "months_since_last_birthday": [0.0] * 4, "is_uc_claimant": [False, False, True, True], "child_benefit_reported": [0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0], diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py index 0bfc2f958d..c7fb1e6b81 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py @@ -66,6 +66,9 @@ def test_uk_contract_loads_and_selects_build_year_rates() -> None: 0.384, 0.0385, 0.593, + # microcosm#1372: DfE apprenticeship participation per head aged 19 to + # 24 in England, 2024/25. + 0.05992, ] diff --git a/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py b/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py index d99f34065c..ca0b5de8ed 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py @@ -451,13 +451,13 @@ def compatibility_claim_declarer_error(declared_by: object) -> str | None: # fingerprint derives from the manifest digest. Editing the spec moves all # three here in the same reviewed change. _UK_GATE_BATTERY_POLICY_SHA256 = ( - "cf7df0ce75fcb6b66cdba6f706ed777aca9550a966f364cef6c3c2c5f7780813" + "045302b0fa324442d610f1d9a129720472964297119ec9c2143961dae1f47f6f" ) _UK_GATE_BATTERY_GATES_MANIFEST_SHA256 = ( - "cb12e74aed6397667b17d5cf770161cf01df721f796ddc244ae9b6945dcf3605" + "f9d96de1607b82ac8df8afc0a206d248c99fbbb98deb901b1264ceff28c16cb7" ) _UK_GATE_BATTERY_SPEC_FINGERPRINT = ( - "fcebd763a4e9c427615ca935b019de43bc49e7dffbcece54181c21576bdcc372" + "15531b5080b4837217ff29a08d99cbf04190e1f5f8f73203f4a4ffdf66803541" ) #: Spec entry id -> the legacy gate name whose observable detail checks #: apply unchanged (the battery re-keys the report by entry id; the gate @@ -953,10 +953,10 @@ def _uk_line_cut_tag_re(release_id: str) -> re.Pattern[str] | None: }, "release_cut": { "gates_manifest_sha256": ( - "85aaa1f2a7a9d295c12db01698c4ba0e2c3724ab6051d68966f49e5d8a3427f5" + "108c695141b6448cf7163a0f4dbea978a6b07303c81fe7f22c2710b0bca1d91b" ), "policy_sha256": ( - "d7bda5f6771845ffc5bf591ae45f2618885f51ebeb48fcb96538a2a3b0ef6a11" + "de853fed295d8a4d3d6143857efda1e3d604701749ec1f58e2e60427ec2e3977" ), }, } diff --git a/test_support/microcosm_build/uk_frs_stochastic.py b/test_support/microcosm_build/uk_frs_stochastic.py index 3e5d5898cf..e4c8aca3b5 100644 --- a/test_support/microcosm_build/uk_frs_stochastic.py +++ b/test_support/microcosm_build/uk_frs_stochastic.py @@ -83,6 +83,7 @@ class _Contract: "first_time_buyer_rate": 0.5, "property_purchase_rate": 0.5, "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share": 0.593, + "apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24": 0.06, } def rate(self, key: str, build_year: int | None = None) -> float: @@ -118,6 +119,7 @@ def _frame() -> object: "person_benunit_id": [10, 10, 20, 30], "person_household_id": [1, 1, 1, 2], "age": [5, 6, 40, 70], + "employment_status": ["CHILD", "CHILD", "FT_EMPLOYED", "RETIRED"], "months_since_last_birthday": [0.0] * 4, "is_uc_claimant": [False, False, True, True], "child_benefit_reported": [0, 10, 0, 0], diff --git a/tools/verify_uk_identity_stability.py b/tools/verify_uk_identity_stability.py index ca1a685ce9..e1aaba86dd 100644 --- a/tools/verify_uk_identity_stability.py +++ b/tools/verify_uk_identity_stability.py @@ -120,6 +120,15 @@ def e4_identity_receipt( raise ValueError("LHA_category materialization must align to benunit rows.") benunit["LHA_category"] = [_enum_name(value) for value in lha_category] benunit["region"] = _benunit_regions(person, household, benunit) + # is_apprentice's rate among eligible employees reads the household + # weights, which a row permutation carries with each household id. + weight_by_household = dict( + zip( + household["household_id"].to_numpy(), + np.asarray(frame.weights_for("household").values, dtype=float), + strict=True, + ) + ) def recompute(person_t, benunit_t, household_t) -> dict[str, pd.DataFrame]: anchors = aggregate_person_reported_to_benunit(person_t, benunit_t) @@ -137,7 +146,13 @@ def recompute(person_t, benunit_t, household_t) -> dict[str, pd.DataFrame]: take_up[UK_EXTENDED_CHILDCARE_OUTPUT].to_numpy(), ) take_up.index = benunit_t["benunit_id"].to_numpy() - person_draws = derive_frs_person_draws(person_t, contract=contract) + person_draws = derive_frs_person_draws( + person_t, + contract=contract, + person_weights=person_t["person_household_id"] + .map(weight_by_household) + .to_numpy(dtype=float), + ) person_draws[UK_UNDER_TWO_USAGE_OUTPUT] = derive_under_two_childcare_usage( person_t, claiming=claiming, contract=contract ) From 4b75e355ffb12e324b2ca7ec126c2975b518220a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: vahid-ahmadi Date: Fri, 23 Oct 2026 20:13:02 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 02/12] Regenerate the H2 UK spine parity fixture for is_apprentice (#1372) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json | 15 +++++++++++++-- .../tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json | 2 +- 2 files changed, 14 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json index c0c4ba6bb3..45a7be0a2a 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json @@ -1812,7 +1812,7 @@ "attends_private_school_random_draw", "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" ], - "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced.", + "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced. is_apprentice has no FRS source (no apprenticeship variable in the 2022-23 to 2024-25 adult tables; TRAIN2, NI3TRAIN and TRAINEE code government employment schemes) and is drawn from the DfE rate for employees aged 21 to 24 only.", "operations": [ { "draw": "would_claim_marriage_allowance", @@ -1848,13 +1848,24 @@ "kind": "assign_period_constant", "output": "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", "period_source": "build_year" + }, + { + "assignment_unit": "person", + "draw": "is_apprentice", + "eligibility": "employees (employment_status FT_EMPLOYED or PT_EMPLOYED, from frs_employment) aged 21 to 24: SSCBA 1992 s.9A already zero-rates every earner under 21 and s.9B ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so no other age changes employer NICs, and leaving them False keeps is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged", + "kind": "assign_binary_from_rate", + "output": "is_apprentice", + "rate_derivation": "the contract's apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24 is DfE's England participation per head aged 19 to 24, taken as uniform across those ages and UK-wide; at the frame's household weights it becomes the rate among the eligible, p = min(1, r * W(age 21 to 24) / W(eligible)), and is_apprentice = eligible AND u < p, so the weighted flags equal r times the weighted population aged 21 to 24", + "rate_key": "apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24", + "seed": 0 } ], "outputs": [ "would_claim_marriage_allowance", "would_claim_scp", "attends_private_school_random_draw", - "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" + "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", + "is_apprentice" ], "rewrites": [], "source": "Sourced UK take-up contract rates and identity-keyed deterministic draws.", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json index 6c09a01d2f..a715b9f747 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json @@ -1 +1 @@ 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UK FRS and donor fixture/source bundle.","name":"frs"}]} From 12f2dab556dccb02d2e48211c965c74533a15a82 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: vahid-ahmadi Date: Fri, 23 Oct 2026 20:34:20 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 03/12] Repin the UK gate-battery digests in the contract tests (#1372) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py | 6 +++--- 1 file changed, 3 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-data/tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py b/packages/microcosm-data/tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py index 520cd4e486..851878d11f 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-data/tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-data/tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py @@ -213,13 +213,13 @@ def _trusted_terminal_gate_signing_key(monkeypatch) -> None: UK_GATE_BATTERY_PRODUCER = "microcosm.build.gate_battery" UK_GATE_BATTERY_SIGNING_KEY_ENV = "MICROCOSM_UK_TERMINAL_GATE_SIGNING_KEY" UK_GATE_BATTERY_POLICY_SHA256 = ( - "cf7df0ce75fcb6b66cdba6f706ed777aca9550a966f364cef6c3c2c5f7780813" + "045302b0fa324442d610f1d9a129720472964297119ec9c2143961dae1f47f6f" ) UK_GATE_BATTERY_GATES_MANIFEST_SHA256 = ( - "cb12e74aed6397667b17d5cf770161cf01df721f796ddc244ae9b6945dcf3605" + "f9d96de1607b82ac8df8afc0a206d248c99fbbb98deb901b1264ceff28c16cb7" ) UK_GATE_BATTERY_SPEC_FINGERPRINT = ( - "fcebd763a4e9c427615ca935b019de43bc49e7dffbcece54181c21576bdcc372" + "15531b5080b4837217ff29a08d99cbf04190e1f5f8f73203f4a4ffdf66803541" ) UK_GATE_BATTERY_DEGENERATE_EVIDENCE_SHA256 = ( "6a179222c6b6058ad9caacfd347f7bdb8cb98a62237b50d1fc1136df09337251" From cdb6750bbe7ecd55ac0ccf70e537adecdc95c4f4 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: vahid-ahmadi Date: Fri, 23 Oct 2026 20:56:22 +0100 Subject: [PATCH 04/12] Require person weights for the person draws; temper the DfE rate's citation (#1372) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../src/microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json | 2 +- .../src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py | 7 +++---- .../tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_stochastic.py | 4 +++- .../tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json | 2 +- 4 files changed, 8 insertions(+), 7 deletions(-) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json index 546533cb07..c1e6f0c3b6 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json @@ -985,7 +985,7 @@ "url": "https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-catalogue/data-set/e5a4761f-434a-423a-bb0a-73ca3092dfc3", "csv_sha256": "be614d4acb481b661623f613df310a5148c1500279bdedd193af5d3571972cf8", "derivation": "participation_rate_per_100000_population / 100000 for England, ages 19 to 24, per academic year (2024/25: 252,960 participants over a population estimate of 4,221,504 gives 5,992 per 100,000)", - "citation": "Apprentices per head of population aged 19 to 24 in England. DfE ages are age at the start of the apprenticeship and participation counts everyone in learning at any point in the academic year, so the rate is an upper bound on the share of 21- to 24-year-olds who are apprentices at a point in time. DfE publishes no single-year split of 19 to 24, so the rate is taken as uniform across those ages, and England's rate is applied UK-wide until the Scottish (SDS Modern Apprenticeships), Welsh (Medr) and Northern Irish (ApprenticeshipsNI) series are added. frs_person_draws converts it to a rate among employees aged 21 to 24 at the frame's weights." + "citation": "Apprentices per head of population aged 19 to 24 in England. DfE ages are age at the start of the apprenticeship and participation counts everyone in learning at any point in the academic year, so the rate likely overstates the share of 21- to 24-year-olds who are apprentices at a point in time, though age at start works the other way. DfE publishes no single-year split of 19 to 24, so the rate is taken as uniform across those ages, and England's rate is applied UK-wide until the Scottish (SDS Modern Apprenticeships), Welsh (Medr) and Northern Irish (ApprenticeshipsNI) series are added. frs_person_draws converts it to a rate among employees aged 21 to 24 at the frame's weights." } } ], diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py index c1f5bb8e80..6529483b06 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py @@ -122,13 +122,12 @@ def derive_frs_person_draws( person: pd.DataFrame, *, contract: UKTakeUpContract, - person_weights: np.ndarray | None = None, + person_weights: np.ndarray, ) -> pd.DataFrame: """Return the stage's person draws. - ``person_weights`` are each person's household weight; the stage passes - the frame's. Without them every person weighs one, which keeps the draws - themselves identity-keyed for callers that only check their stability. + ``person_weights`` are each person's household weight, which set + ``is_apprentice``'s rate among eligible employees. """ ids = person["person_id"].to_numpy() diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_stochastic.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_stochastic.py index d424b44fcb..3105f87ec6 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_stochastic.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_stochastic.py @@ -79,7 +79,9 @@ def test_under_two_usage_draws_children_in_claiming_units_only() -> None: def test_person_draws_pin_scp_age_six_boundary_and_uniform_draw() -> None: person = _frame().table("person") - derived = derive_frs_person_draws(person, contract=_Contract()) + derived = derive_frs_person_draws( + person, contract=_Contract(), person_weights=np.ones(len(person)) + ) draws = stable_identity_uniforms( person["person_id"].to_numpy(), seed=0, salt="would_claim_scp" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json index a715b9f747..bd1e996080 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json @@ -1 +1 @@ -{"country":"uk","nodes":[{"artifact_outputs":[{"name":"stage_evidence","type":{"name":"microcosm.stage-evidence","schema_version":1}}],"base":null,"citation":"","description":"Load the source-bound UK FRS root 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UK spine stage private_school_attendance.","id":"private_school_attendance","inputs":[{"columns":["frs_benunit_capital","is_married","dependent_children","liable_for_share_of_household_rent","would_claim_child_benefit","child_benefit_opts_out","would_claim_pc","would_claim_uc","would_claim_tfc","would_claim_extended_childcare","would_claim_universal_childcare","would_claim_targeted_childcare","would_claim_uc_childcare","maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage","benunit_source_id","benunit_support_channel","benunit_support_clone_index","uc_reported_capital","pension_credit_reported_capital","would_claim_uc_at_legacy_closure","has_mixed_age_couple_pension_credit_saving","uc_deduction_random_draw","uc_deduction_type_random_draw","uc_latent_deduction_rate","uc_deduction_combination"],"entity":"benunit","rows":"all"},{"columns":["region","tenure_type","accommodation_type","num_bedrooms","council_tax_reported","council_tax_band","council_tax_rebate","council_tax_single_adult_raw","water_and_sewerage_charges","domestic_rates","rent","subrent","mortgage_interest_repayment","mortgage_capital_repayment","structural_insurance_payments","housing_service_charges","external_child_payments","ons_household_type","council_tax","household_owns_tv","would_evade_tv_licence_fee","main_residential_property_purchased_is_first_home","property_purchased","brma","source_household_id","source_year","source_household_key","household_source_id","household_support_channel","household_support_clone_index","household_is_spi_synthetic","household_is_spi_income_band_donor","spi_income_band_donor_lower_bound","owned_land","property_wealth","corporate_wealth","private_pension_wealth","gross_financial_wealth","net_financial_wealth","main_residence_value","other_residential_property_value","non_residential_property_value","savings","num_vehicles","cash_isa","stocks_and_shares_isa","mortgage_debt","consumer_debt","household_lifetime_isa_balance","household_is_high_value_support_copy","high_value_support_copies","high_value_support_copy_index","main_residence_value_rank_basis","additional_residential_property_purchased","non_residential_property_purchased","household_local_bus_trips","food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages_consumption","alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption","clothing_and_footwear_consumption","housing_water_and_electricity_consumption","household_furnishings_consumption","health_consumption","transport_consumption","communication_consumption","recreation_consumption","education_consumption","restaurants_and_hotels_consumption","miscellaneous_consumption","petrol_spending","diesel_spending","bus_fare_spending","domestic_energy_consumption","electricity_consumption","gas_consumption","has_fuel_consumption","uses_energy_prepayment_meter","full_rate_vat_expenditure_rate","dfe_education_spending","rail_subsidy_spending","bus_subsidy_spending","rail_usage","household_is_cgt_support_copy","cgt_support_copies","cgt_support_copy_index","household_is_capital_gains_clone","household_is_cgt_residential_clone","cgt_residential_clone_index"],"entity":"household","rows":"all"},{"columns":["age","gender","months_since_last_birthday","marital_status","hours_worked","care_hours","is_household_head","is_benunit_head","is_parent","is_blind","is_uc_claimant","is_claimant_or_partner","is_hbai_dependent_child","uc_is_in_startup_period","uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment","rent_paid_as_boarder","rent_paid_as_lodger","employment_income","self_employment_income","trading_loss","loss_relief","ni_class_4_losses_brought_forward","private_pension_income","tax_free_savings_income","savings_interest_income","dividend_income","stands_as_sole_owner_or_partner_of_company","is_engaged_in_owned_company_trade","owned_company_is_main_employment","owned_company_carries_on_trade","owned_company_carries_on_property_business","owned_company_income_share","property_income","reports_rent_from_other_property","maintenance_income","miscellaneous_income","private_transfer_income","lump_sum_income","student_loan_repayments","statutory_sick_pay","statutory_maternity_pay","statutory_paternity_pay","student_loans","access_fund","education_grants","healthy_start_vouchers","free_school_breakfasts","free_school_fruit_veg","free_school_meals","council_tax_benefit_reported","maintenance_expenses","childcare_expenses","personal_pension_contributions","employee_pension_contributions","pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice","salary_sacrifice_reported","salary_sacrifice_asked","child_benefit_reported","income_support_reported","housing_benefit_reported","attendance_allowance_reported","dla_sc_reported","dla_m_reported","iidb_reported","carers_allowance_reported","would_claim_carers_allowance","sda_reported","afcs_reported","ssmg_reported","pension_credit_reported","child_tax_credit_reported","working_tax_credit_reported","state_pension_reported","winter_fuel_allowance_reported","incapacity_benefit_reported","universal_credit_reported","pip_m_reported","pip_dl_reported","jsa_contrib_reported","jsa_income_reported","esa_contrib_reported","esa_income_reported","esa_includes_support_component","bsp_reported","war_widows_pension_reported","relationship_to_head","ons_family_role","ons_family_index","is_looked_after_by_local_authority","employment_status","employment_sector","sic_industry_division","aa_category","dla_sc_category","dla_m_category","pip_m_category","pip_dl_category","is_disabled_for_benefits","is_enhanced_disabled_for_benefits","is_severely_disabled_for_benefits","current_education","highest_education","is_in_non_advanced_education","is_in_approved_training","age_started_or_accepted_current_education_or_training","is_before_universal_credit_qualifying_young_person_terminal_date","adult_ema","child_ema","receives_benefits_in_own_right","reports_outstanding_student_loan","age_left_full_time_education","legacy_jobseeker_proxy","esa_health_condition_proxy","esa_support_group_proxy","disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses","max_free_entitlement_hours_used","would_claim_marriage_allowance","would_claim_scp","attends_private_school_random_draw","tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share","is_apprentice","hmrc_spi_pay","hmrc_spi_unemployment_benefit_income","hmrc_spi_incapacity_benefit_income","ossben_identifiable_subset","srp_regular_code5","employer_pension_contributions","employment_income_annual_share","employment_income_other_spells","self_employment_income_annual_share","self_employment_income_other_spells","private_pension_income_annual_share","contributory_benefits_annual_share","person_source_id","person_support_channel","person_support_clone_index","person_is_spi_income_band_carrier","charitable_investment_gifts","gift_aid","other_investment_income","hmrc_spi_employment_benefits","hmrc_spi_employment_expenses","hmrc_spi_other_social_security_income","hmrc_spi_taxable_termination_pay","hmrc_spi_miscellaneous_employment_income","hmrc_spi_other_income","hmrc_spi_state_pension_income","property_finance_costs","hmrc_spi_employed_income","hmrc_spi_total_earned_income","hmrc_spi_total_investment_income","hmrc_spi_assessable_income","person_is_spi_income_recipient","student_loan_balance","has_lifetime_isa","lifetime_isa_balance","property_rental_income","local_bus_use_band","bus_in_london_trips","other_local_bus_trips","local_bus_trips","bus_pass_eligible","local_bus_single_fare_share","a_and_e_visits","admitted_patient_visits","outpatient_visits","nhs_a_and_e_spending","nhs_admitted_patient_spending","nhs_outpatient_spending","capital_gains","cgt_residential_probability","capital_gains_residential_property","capital_gains_asset_type","capital_gains_badr","salary_sacrifice_pre_conversion_pay","student_loan_plan"],"entity":"person","rows":"all"}],"kernel":"uk.stage.private_school_attendance@1","mass":"conserve","outputs":[{"column":"attends_private_school","dtype":"bool","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"}],"params":{"numerical_dependencies":[["policyengine-uk","2.147.2"],["policyengine-core","3.33.3"],["numpy","2.4.6"],["pandas","3.0.3"],["scikit-learn","1.8.0"],["quantile-forest","1.4.2"]],"stage":"private_school_attendance","stage_contract_sha256":"7e44379c0331fe4c9de05cd76a075c1a6aa22cf0dec6cd2f91b277e70f14a038","time_period":"2024"},"population":"childcare_copy_take_up.boundary","sources":["frs"],"structural":"none","weights":null}],"sources":[{"codec":"csv-tables","description":"Content-bound UK FRS and donor fixture/source bundle.","name":"frs"}]} From 5c27c42851256b0535b9781d1d7a32f169eeb03b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 26 Oct 2026 14:41:27 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 05/12] Size the apprentice draw on DfE's point-in-time count and gate it (#1373) The draw flagged DfE's in-year participation per head (5,992 per 100,000 aged 19 to 24 in 2024/25). Participation counts everyone in learning at any point in the academic year, so the draw put about twice the likely s.9B relief on 21 to 24-year-olds (review of 25 October). - The contract's apprentice_stock_19_to_24 replaces apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24: participation less starts per head, the apprentices already in learning when the year began (3,689 per 100,000 in 2024/25), from the same DfE data set and file hash. DfE publishes no point-in-time count. - Eligible employees aged 21 to 24 are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest the target (uc_take_up's rule), so the stage meets it to within half one person's weight rather than only in expectation, or flags all of them when they weigh no more than it. - frs_person_draws records a receipt (rate, population and eligible weight, target, flagged weight, deviation, cap_bound, support bands). It withholds any weight resting on fewer than ten households, with the figures that would give it back. - uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices, a release-blocking stage-health gate (a population fact check), holds the receipt to the contract's rate and the flagged weight to within 5 percent of the target. It joins the spine scope, the data contract's battery map and certification scope, and the battery's allowed parameter keys. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- changelog.d/uk-apprentice-draw.added.md | 2 +- .../src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json | 15 ++ .../src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json | 6 +- .../src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml | 6 +- .../microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json | 18 +- .../build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py | 3 + .../build/uk_runtime/calibration_run.py | 1 + .../build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py | 168 ++++++++++++--- .../build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py | 138 ++++++++++++ .../engine_free/shared/test_country_spec.py | 2 + .../engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py | 201 ++++++++++++------ .../engine_free/uk/test_uk_source_stages.py | 2 +- .../engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py | 108 ++++++++++ .../uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py | 6 +- .../src/microcosm/data/contract.py | 17 +- .../tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py | 12 +- .../microcosm_build/uk_frs_stochastic.py | 2 +- 17 files changed, 577 insertions(+), 130 deletions(-) diff --git a/changelog.d/uk-apprentice-draw.added.md b/changelog.d/uk-apprentice-draw.added.md index 5b2b9aa1f5..abce630aab 100644 --- a/changelog.d/uk-apprentice-draw.added.md +++ b/changelog.d/uk-apprentice-draw.added.md @@ -1 +1 @@ -Draw `is_apprentice` on the UK spine for employees aged 21 to 24, at DfE's England apprenticeship participation per head aged 19 to 24 (5,992 per 100,000 in 2024/25), so the employer NICs zero rate for apprentices under 25 (SSCBA 1992 s.9B, policyengine-uk#2505) reaches them (#1372). The FRS has no apprenticeship variable; other ages keep the default False. +Draw `is_apprentice` on the UK spine for employees aged 21 to 24, so the employer NICs zero rate for apprentices under 25 (SSCBA 1992 s.9B, policyengine-uk#2505) reaches them (#1372). The target is DfE's England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24, 3,689 per 100,000 in 2024/25, rather than the in-year participation rate (5,992). Employees are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it, and the new release-blocking gate `uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices` checks the stage's receipt. The FRS has no apprenticeship variable; other ages keep the default False. diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json index 98eccfa2a0..7e2ddf6c19 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json @@ -900,6 +900,21 @@ }, "notes": "Stage-time gate over the Move to UC take-up receipt (microcosm#1308, gated with the next policyengine-uk bump on María's ruling of 2026-10-17). The receipt withholds what a thin combination realizes, so the gate holds the contract it can read: the share is measured at the spine's design weights over Great Britain, every combination's rate is a probability taken from its combination or from all households, its support is a printed band, its unreachable flag is a boolean, a withheld \"<10\" or absent, and the share claiming at closure is a share or withheld." }, + { + "id": "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices", + "gate": "stage_health", + "phase": "transferred", + "criticality": "release_blocking", + "evidence_absent_blocks": true, + "population_fact_check": true, + "parameters": { + "stage": "frs_person_draws", + "check": "apprentice_draw", + "rate_key": "apprentice_stock_19_to_24", + "maximum_relative_realization_deviation": 0.05 + }, + "notes": "Stage-time gate over the is_apprentice receipt (microcosm#1373). The draw's target is the contract's apprentice_stock_19_to_24 for the build year (DfE's England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year, participation less starts, per head aged 19 to 24) times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the stage's weights, and eligible employees aged 21 to 24 are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it, so the stage misses it by at most half one person's weight. The gate checks that the receipt carries the contract's rate under the declared key, that its target is that rate times its population, that its support is printed in bands, and, unless the eligible employees weigh no more than the target (cap-bound, every one of them flagged), that the flagged weight lies within maximum_relative_realization_deviation (5 percent) of the target. That tolerance is a declared rule set above the half-weight bound, not a fact. A flagged weight on fewer than ten source households fails: the receipt withholds it under the UKDS disclosure rule, and a rate realized on so few records would not describe the population. The entry is a population_fact_check, so the synthetic smoke build over the H2 fixture records its outcome without blocking; every licensed build blocks on it." + }, { "id": "uk_release_input_coverage", "gate": "release_input_coverage", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json index 236ef8b4bc..19fa8ab998 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json @@ -1184,10 +1184,10 @@ "kind": "assign_binary_from_rate", "output": "is_apprentice", "draw": "is_apprentice", - "rate_key": "apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24", + "rate_key": "apprentice_stock_19_to_24", "assignment_unit": "person", "eligibility": "employees (employment_status FT_EMPLOYED or PT_EMPLOYED, from frs_employment) aged 21 to 24: SSCBA 1992 s.9A already zero-rates every earner under 21 and s.9B ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so no other age changes employer NICs, and leaving them False keeps is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged", - "rate_derivation": "the contract's apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24 is DfE's England participation per head aged 19 to 24, taken as uniform across those ages and UK-wide; at the frame's household weights it becomes the rate among the eligible, p = min(1, r * W(age 21 to 24) / W(eligible)), and is_apprentice = eligible AND u < p, so the weighted flags equal r times the weighted population aged 21 to 24", + "rate_derivation": "the contract's apprentice_stock_19_to_24 is DfE's England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24, a point-in-time count taken as uniform across those ages and UK-wide; the target is r times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the frame's household weights, and eligible employees are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it (uc_take_up's rule), or all of them when they weigh no more than it; the receipt records the target, the flagged weight and the support bands, and uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices gates them", "seed": 0 } ], @@ -1202,7 +1202,7 @@ "attends_private_school_random_draw", "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" ], - "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced. is_apprentice has no FRS source (no apprenticeship variable in the 2022-23 to 2024-25 adult tables; TRAIN2, NI3TRAIN and TRAINEE code government employment schemes) and is drawn from the DfE rate for employees aged 21 to 24 only." + "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced. is_apprentice has no FRS source (no apprenticeship variable in the 2022-23 to 2024-25 adult tables; TRAIN2, NI3TRAIN and TRAINEE code government employment schemes) and is drawn to DfE's point-in-time rate for employees aged 21 to 24 only." }, { "stage": "frs_household_draws", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml index 6f84868021..55018c40da 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml @@ -1065,10 +1065,10 @@ stages: - kind: assign_binary_from_rate output: is_apprentice draw: is_apprentice - rate_key: apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24 + rate_key: apprentice_stock_19_to_24 assignment_unit: person eligibility: 'employees (employment_status FT_EMPLOYED or PT_EMPLOYED, from frs_employment) aged 21 to 24: SSCBA 1992 s.9A already zero-rates every earner under 21 and s.9B ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so no other age changes employer NICs, and leaving them False keeps is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged' - rate_derivation: 'the contract''s apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24 is DfE''s England participation per head aged 19 to 24, taken as uniform across those ages and UK-wide; at the frame''s household weights it becomes the rate among the eligible, p = min(1, r * W(age 21 to 24) / W(eligible)), and is_apprentice = eligible AND u < p, so the weighted flags equal r times the weighted population aged 21 to 24' + rate_derivation: 'the contract''s apprentice_stock_19_to_24 is DfE''s England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24, a point-in-time count taken as uniform across those ages and UK-wide; the target is r times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the frame''s household weights, and eligible employees are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it (uc_take_up''s rule), or all of them when they weigh no more than it; the receipt records the target, the flagged weight and the support bands, and uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices gates them' seed: 0 outputs: - would_claim_marriage_allowance @@ -1079,7 +1079,7 @@ stages: nonnegative_outputs: - attends_private_school_random_draw - tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share - notes: 'Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced. is_apprentice has no FRS source (no apprenticeship variable in the 2022-23 to 2024-25 adult tables; TRAIN2, NI3TRAIN and TRAINEE code government employment schemes) and is drawn from the DfE rate for employees aged 21 to 24 only.' + notes: 'Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced. is_apprentice has no FRS source (no apprenticeship variable in the 2022-23 to 2024-25 adult tables; TRAIN2, NI3TRAIN and TRAINEE code government employment schemes) and is drawn to DfE''s point-in-time rate for employees aged 21 to 24 only.' - stage: frs_household_draws survey: Family Resources Survey 2024-25 source: Sourced UK stochastic contract rates and identity-keyed deterministic draws. diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json index 23a5f89b1d..82ba66718a 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json @@ -967,16 +967,16 @@ } }, { - "key": "apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24", + "key": "apprentice_stock_19_to_24", "output": "is_apprentice", "entity": "person", "values": { - "2019-08-01": 0.06017, - "2020-08-01": 0.06101, - "2021-08-01": 0.06295, - "2022-08-01": 0.06244, - "2023-08-01": 0.05976, - "2024-08-01": 0.05992 + "2019-08-01": 0.037317, + "2020-08-01": 0.037817, + "2021-08-01": 0.036728, + "2022-08-01": 0.038327, + "2023-08-01": 0.036632, + "2024-08-01": 0.036887 }, "source": { "source": "DfE Apprenticeships statistics, academic year 2024/25, data set 'Geography Region - starts, achievements, participation, population by age, level' (app-geography-population-202425-q4.csv), National rows, apps_level Total, age_summary 19-24", @@ -984,8 +984,8 @@ "status": "sourced_administrative_derived", "url": "https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-catalogue/data-set/e5a4761f-434a-423a-bb0a-73ca3092dfc3", "csv_sha256": "be614d4acb481b661623f613df310a5148c1500279bdedd193af5d3571972cf8", - "derivation": "participation_rate_per_100000_population / 100000 for England, ages 19 to 24, per academic year (2024/25: 252,960 participants over a population estimate of 4,221,504 gives 5,992 per 100,000)", - "citation": "Apprentices per head of population aged 19 to 24 in England. DfE ages are age at the start of the apprenticeship and participation counts everyone in learning at any point in the academic year, so the rate likely overstates the share of 21- to 24-year-olds who are apprentices at a point in time, though age at start works the other way. DfE publishes no single-year split of 19 to 24, so the rate is taken as uniform across those ages, and England's rate is applied UK-wide until the Scottish (SDS Modern Apprenticeships), Welsh (Medr) and Northern Irish (ApprenticeshipsNI) series are added. frs_person_draws converts it to a rate among employees aged 21 to 24 at the frame's weights." + "derivation": "(participation - starts) / population_estimate for England, ages 19 to 24, per academic year, rounded to six decimals: the apprentices already in learning when the year began, per head (2024/25: (252,960 - 97,240) / 4,221,504 = 0.036887)", + "citation": "Apprentices in learning at a point in time per head of population aged 19 to 24 in England. DfE publishes no point-in-time count: participation counts everyone in learning at any point in the academic year, so the in-year rate (5,992 per 100,000 in 2024/25) overstates how many are apprentices at once. Participation less the year's starts is the number already in learning on 1 August; in a steady state it is also the year's average number in learning, though autumn starts put the year's low near 1 August. Participation takes age at 31 August and starts take age at the start, so the two differ at the band's edges. DfE publishes no single-year split of 19 to 24, so the rate is taken as uniform across those ages; Medr's single-year Welsh rates fall with age, which points to a lower rate at 21 to 24. England's rate is applied UK-wide until the Scottish (SDS Modern Apprenticeships in training), Welsh (Medr) and Northern Irish (ApprenticeshipsNI) series are added; SDS's point-in-time count is lower per head. frs_person_draws realizes it among employees aged 21 to 24 at the frame's weights." } } ], diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py index 377842ee47..81fa2b6318 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py @@ -2266,6 +2266,9 @@ def _ledger_compile_parity_required_artifacts( "rank_basis", "p_basis", "rate_sources", + # The apprentice draw (microcosm#1373). + "rate_key", + "maximum_relative_realization_deviation", } ), artifact_keys=frozenset({"stage_evidence"}), diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/calibration_run.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/calibration_run.py index 9b72a3faa2..6298dbc81e 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/calibration_run.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/calibration_run.py @@ -138,6 +138,7 @@ "uk_stage_regional_home_values_ranking", "uk_stage_property_purchases_fit", "uk_stage_uc_legacy_closure_take_up_contract", + "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices", # Weight-independent like the BRMA enum below, and its column exists from # frs_relationships onward (#791). "uk_ons_household_type_enum_domain", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py index 6529483b06..ca63d063f3 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py @@ -6,23 +6,23 @@ apprenticeships. policyengine-uk zero-rates employer Class 1 NICs for a relevant apprentice under 25 (SSCBA 1992 s.9B), and a person under 21 already gets the s.9A zero rate by age, so the flag changes employer NICs only at ages -21 to 24. The stage draws it there, for employees only, at DfE's published -participation rate for apprentices aged 19 to 24 in England per head of -population (``apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24``), converted to a rate -among the eligible employees at the frame's own household weights: - - p = min(1, r * W(age 21 to 24) / W(employees aged 21 to 24)) - -so the weighted flags among 21- to 24-year-olds equal r times their weighted -population. Ages under 21 and from 25 keep the engine default (False), which -leaves ``is_in_non_advanced_education`` (child benefit and Universal Credit -qualifying young person status), ``minimum_wage``, Care to Learn and the 16 to -19 Bursary Fund unchanged for them. +21 to 24. The stage draws it there, for employees only. Its target is r times +the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the frame's own household weights, +where r (``apprentice_stock_19_to_24``) is DfE's England apprentices in +learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per +head aged 19 to 24, a point-in-time count rather than the in-year one +(microcosm#1373). Eligible employees are flagged in the order of their +identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest the target, and the +stage's receipt records how near it came. Ages under 21 and from 25 keep the +engine default (False), which leaves ``is_in_non_advanced_education`` (child +benefit and Universal Credit qualifying young person status), ``minimum_wage``, +Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged for them. """ from __future__ import annotations -from dataclasses import dataclass +from collections.abc import Mapping +from dataclasses import dataclass, field import numpy as np import pandas as pd @@ -39,6 +39,7 @@ uk_time_period, validate_uk_national_frame, ) +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.receipt_counts import distinct_count, support_band from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.take_up_contract import UKTakeUpContract from microcosm.frame import Frame @@ -54,7 +55,7 @@ "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", ) APPRENTICE_OUTPUT = "is_apprentice" -APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY = "apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24" +APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY = "apprentice_stock_19_to_24" # SSCBA 1992 s.9A gives every earner under 21 the zero rate by age, and s.9B # ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so only ages 21 to 24 are drawn. APPRENTICE_MIN_AGE = 21 @@ -77,16 +78,39 @@ class UKFRSPersonDrawsStageTransform: contract: UKTakeUpContract stage: SourceStageSpec + last_receipt: Mapping[str, object] | None = field(default=None, init=False) def __call__(self, frame: Frame) -> Frame: - return add_frs_person_draws(frame, contract=self.contract) + result, receipt = add_frs_person_draws_with_receipt( + frame, contract=self.contract + ) + object.__setattr__(self, "last_receipt", receipt) + return result @staticmethod def output_columns() -> tuple[str, ...]: return FRS_PERSON_DRAW_OUTPUT_COLUMNS + def checkpoint_metadata(self) -> dict[str, object]: + if self.last_receipt is None: + raise RuntimeError("checkpoint metadata requires a completed stage run.") + return { + "evidence": { + "stage": "frs_person_draws", + "apprentice_receipt": dict(self.last_receipt), + } + } + def add_frs_person_draws(frame: Frame, *, contract: UKTakeUpContract) -> Frame: + return add_frs_person_draws_with_receipt(frame, contract=contract)[0] + + +def add_frs_person_draws_with_receipt( + frame: Frame, *, contract: UKTakeUpContract +) -> tuple[Frame, Mapping[str, object]]: + """The stage's frame and the receipt of its ``is_apprentice`` draw.""" + period = uk_time_period(frame) if int(str(period).split("-", maxsplit=1)[0]) != contract.build_year: raise ValueError( @@ -100,7 +124,7 @@ def add_frs_person_draws(frame: Frame, *, contract: UKTakeUpContract) -> Frame: f"{APPRENTICE_OUTPUT!r} is already stored: frs_person_draws is its " "only writer." ) - derived = derive_frs_person_draws( + derived, receipt = derive_frs_person_draws_with_receipt( person, contract=contract, person_weights=uk_person_household_weights(frame) ) for column in FRS_PERSON_DRAW_OUTPUT_COLUMNS: @@ -115,7 +139,7 @@ def add_frs_person_draws(frame: Frame, *, contract: UKTakeUpContract) -> Frame: mass_log=frame.mass_log, ) validate_uk_national_frame(result) - return result + return result, receipt def derive_frs_person_draws( @@ -127,9 +151,22 @@ def derive_frs_person_draws( """Return the stage's person draws. ``person_weights`` are each person's household weight, which set - ``is_apprentice``'s rate among eligible employees. + ``is_apprentice``'s target. """ + return derive_frs_person_draws_with_receipt( + person, contract=contract, person_weights=person_weights + )[0] + + +def derive_frs_person_draws_with_receipt( + person: pd.DataFrame, + *, + contract: UKTakeUpContract, + person_weights: np.ndarray, +) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, Mapping[str, object]]: + """The stage's person draws and the receipt of its ``is_apprentice`` draw.""" + ids = person["person_id"].to_numpy() values = pd.DataFrame(index=person.index) values["would_claim_marriage_allowance"] = assign_binary_from_rate( @@ -154,12 +191,21 @@ def derive_frs_person_draws( values["tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share"] = contract.rate( "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", contract.build_year ) - values[APPRENTICE_OUTPUT] = derive_is_apprentice( + apprentices = derive_is_apprentice( person, rate=contract.rate(APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY, contract.build_year), person_weights=person_weights, ) - return values + values[APPRENTICE_OUTPUT] = apprentices.flags + return values, {"build_year": contract.build_year, **apprentices.receipt} + + +@dataclass(frozen=True) +class UKApprenticeDraw: + """``is_apprentice`` and the receipt of how the draw met its target.""" + + flags: np.ndarray + receipt: Mapping[str, object] def derive_is_apprentice( @@ -167,14 +213,16 @@ def derive_is_apprentice( *, rate: float, person_weights: np.ndarray | None = None, -) -> np.ndarray: +) -> UKApprenticeDraw: """Draw ``is_apprentice`` for employees aged 21 to 24. - ``rate`` is apprentices per head of population at those ages. It becomes a - rate among the eligible employees, ``rate * W(21 to 24) / W(eligible)``, - capped at one, so the weighted flags equal ``rate`` times the weighted - population aged 21 to 24 unless too few employees carry them. A person is - flagged when eligible and their identity-keyed uniform is below that rate. + ``rate`` is apprentices per head of population at those ages, so the + target is ``rate * W(21 to 24)``. Eligible employees are flagged in the + order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest the + target (uc_take_up's rule, microcosm#1334), so the stage realizes it to + within one person's weight rather than only in expectation. When the + eligible weight falls short of the target every eligible employee is + flagged and the receipt says the draw was cap-bound. """ if "employment_status" not in person.columns: @@ -200,13 +248,71 @@ def derive_is_apprentice( .to_numpy() ) eligible = in_ages & employee + draws = _draws(person["person_id"].to_numpy(), APPRENTICE_OUTPUT) + population_mass = float(weights[in_ages].sum()) eligible_mass = float(weights[eligible].sum()) - if eligible_mass <= 0: - return np.zeros(len(person), dtype=bool) - conditional = min(1.0, float(rate) * float(weights[in_ages].sum()) / eligible_mass) - return eligible & assign_binary_from_rate( - _draws(person["person_id"].to_numpy(), APPRENTICE_OUTPUT), conditional + target = float(rate) * population_mass + threshold = _nearest_target_threshold( + target, draws=draws[eligible], weights=weights[eligible] ) + flags = eligible & (draws < threshold) + realized = float(weights[flags].sum()) + # Before the support channels every household is its own source household. + households = person["person_household_id"].to_numpy() + population_support = distinct_count(households, in_ages, weights) + eligible_support = distinct_count(households, eligible, weights) + flagged_support = distinct_count(households, flags, weights) + receipt: dict[str, object] = { + "output": APPRENTICE_OUTPUT, + "rate_key": APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY, + "rate": float(rate), + "ages": [APPRENTICE_MIN_AGE, APPRENTICE_MAX_AGE_EXCLUSIVE - 1], + "eligible_statuses": list(APPRENTICE_EMPLOYEE_STATUSES), + "population_mass": population_mass, + "eligible_mass": eligible_mass, + "target": target, + "cap_bound": bool(target > 0.0 and eligible_mass <= target), + "population_support": support_band(population_support), + "eligible_support": support_band(eligible_support), + "flagged_support": support_band(flagged_support), + "realized_mass": realized, + "realization_deviation": realized - target, + } + # A weighted total carried by one to nine households is withheld, with the + # figures that would give it back: the target is the rate times the + # population, and the deviation is the flagged weight less the target. + if 0 < population_support < 10: + receipt.update(population_mass="<10", target="<10", realization_deviation="<10") + if 0 < eligible_support < 10: + receipt["eligible_mass"] = "<10" + if 0 < flagged_support < 10: + receipt.update(realized_mass="<10", realization_deviation="<10") + return UKApprenticeDraw(flags=flags, receipt=receipt) + + +def _nearest_target_threshold( + need: float, *, draws: np.ndarray, weights: np.ndarray +) -> float: + """The uniform below which eligible people are flagged. + + People are taken in the order of their uniform until their weight is + nearest ``need``; flagging no one is a candidate too, when ``need`` sits + nearer zero than the first person's weight. When the eligible weight is no + more than ``need``, everyone eligible is flagged. + """ + + if need <= 0.0 or draws.size == 0: + return 0.0 + if float(weights.sum()) <= need: + return 1.0 + order = np.argsort(draws, kind="stable") + cumulative = np.cumsum(weights[order]) + last = min(int(np.searchsorted(cumulative, need)), len(order) - 1) + if last > 0 and abs(cumulative[last - 1] - need) < abs(cumulative[last] - need): + last -= 1 + if last == 0 and abs(need) < abs(cumulative[0] - need): + return float(draws[order[0]]) + return float(np.nextafter(draws[order[last]], 2.0)) def uk_person_household_weights(frame: Frame) -> np.ndarray: diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py index 2a9de2c019..6f3d1fd98c 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py @@ -105,6 +105,8 @@ def uk_stage_health_gate( return _regional_home_values_gate(stage, evidence, parameters) if check == "legacy_closure_take_up": return _legacy_closure_take_up_gate(stage, evidence, parameters) + if check == "apprentice_draw": + return _apprentice_draw_gate(stage, evidence, parameters) return GateResult( name="stage_health", passed=False, @@ -4439,3 +4441,139 @@ def _legacy_closure_take_up_gate( if failures: return _fail(stage, check, failures, details) return _pass(stage, check, details) + + +def _apprentice_draw_gate( + stage: str, + evidence: Mapping[str, object], + parameters: Mapping[str, object], +) -> GateResult: + """``is_apprentice`` realizes the contract's per-head rate (microcosm#1373). + + The receipt must carry the contract's rate for its build year under the + declared key, a target equal to that rate times the weighted population + aged 21 to 24, and its support as printed bands. Unless the eligible + employees weigh no more than the target (cap-bound: every one of them is + flagged), the flagged weight lies within + ``maximum_relative_realization_deviation`` of the target. A flagged weight + on fewer than ten source households fails: the receipt withholds it, and a + rate realized on so few records would not describe the population. + """ + + from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.take_up_contract import load_uk_take_up_contract + + check = "apprentice_draw" + receipt = _mapping( + evidence.get("apprentice_receipt"), label=f"{stage}.apprentice_receipt" + ) + tolerance = _finite_number( + parameters["maximum_relative_realization_deviation"], + label=f"{stage}.maximum_relative_realization_deviation", + ) + if tolerance < 0.0: + raise ValueError( + f"{stage}: maximum_relative_realization_deviation must be >= 0." + ) + rate_key = str(parameters["rate_key"]) + failures: list[str] = [] + if receipt.get("rate_key") != rate_key: + failures.append( + f"{stage}: the draw reads {receipt.get('rate_key')!r}, not {rate_key!r}." + ) + build_year = receipt.get("build_year") + if isinstance(build_year, bool) or not isinstance(build_year, int): + raise ValueError(f"{stage}.build_year must be an integer, got {build_year!r}.") + declared = load_uk_take_up_contract().rate(rate_key, build_year) + rate = _finite_number(receipt.get("rate"), label=f"{stage}.rate") + if rate != declared: + failures.append( + f"{stage}: the draw's rate {rate} is not the contract's {declared} " + f"for {build_year}." + ) + withheld = [ + key + for key in ( + "population_mass", + "eligible_mass", + "target", + "realized_mass", + "realization_deviation", + ) + if receipt.get(key) == "<10" + ] + if withheld: + failures.append( + f"{stage}: {', '.join(withheld)} rest on fewer than ten source " + "households, so the draw cannot be checked against the rate." + ) + return _fail(stage, check, failures, {"rate_key": rate_key, "rate": rate}) + population = _finite_number( + receipt.get("population_mass"), label=f"{stage}.population_mass" + ) + eligible = _finite_number( + receipt.get("eligible_mass"), label=f"{stage}.eligible_mass" + ) + target = _finite_number(receipt.get("target"), label=f"{stage}.target") + if not math.isclose(target, rate * population, rel_tol=_FLOAT_RELATIVE_TOLERANCE): + failures.append( + f"{stage}: target {target} is not the rate times the population aged " + f"21 to 24 ({rate * population})." + ) + for key in ("population_support", "eligible_support", "flagged_support"): + band = receipt.get(key) + if band != 0 and band not in _SUPPORT_BANDS: + failures.append(f"{stage}: {key} {band!r} is not a printed band.") + cap_bound = receipt.get("cap_bound") + if not isinstance(cap_bound, bool): + raise ValueError(f"{stage}.cap_bound must be a boolean, got {cap_bound!r}.") + shortfall = target > 0.0 and eligible <= target + if cap_bound != shortfall: + failures.append( + f"{stage}: cap_bound is {cap_bound} with eligible weight {eligible} " + f"against target {target}." + ) + relative: float | None = None + if receipt.get("flagged_support") == "<10" or receipt.get("realized_mass") == "<10": + failures.append( + f"{stage}: the flagged weight rests on fewer than ten source households." + ) + else: + realized = _finite_number( + receipt.get("realized_mass"), label=f"{stage}.realized_mass" + ) + printed = _finite_number( + receipt.get("realization_deviation"), + label=f"{stage}.realization_deviation", + ) + if not math.isclose( + printed, realized - target, rel_tol=1e-9, abs_tol=1e-6 * max(target, 1.0) + ): + failures.append( + f"{stage}: realization_deviation {printed} is not realized minus " + f"target ({realized - target})." + ) + if cap_bound: + if not math.isclose(realized, eligible, rel_tol=1e-9): + failures.append( + f"{stage}: a cap-bound draw flags every eligible employee, but " + f"{realized} of {eligible} is flagged." + ) + else: + relative = ( + abs(realized - target) / target if target > 0.0 else float(realized > 0) + ) + if relative > tolerance: + failures.append( + f"{stage}: the flagged weight is {relative:.4f} of the target " + f"away from it, above {tolerance}." + ) + details = { + "rate_key": rate_key, + "rate": rate, + "target": target, + "cap_bound": cap_bound, + "relative_realization_deviation": relative, + } + if failures: + return _fail(stage, check, failures, details) + return _pass(stage, check, details) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_country_spec.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_country_spec.py index 3d19609935..4546a0bc1b 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_country_spec.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_country_spec.py @@ -1493,6 +1493,7 @@ def test_declares_the_full_june_battery(self, manifest) -> None: "uk_stage_regional_home_values_ranking", "uk_stage_property_purchases_fit", "uk_stage_uc_legacy_closure_take_up_contract", + "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices", "uk_release_input_coverage", "uk_degenerate_release_surface", "uk_zero_weight_strata", @@ -1623,6 +1624,7 @@ def test_strict_absent_evidence_entries_are_declared(self, manifest) -> None: "uk_stage_regional_home_values_ranking", "uk_stage_property_purchases_fit", "uk_stage_uc_legacy_closure_take_up_contract", + "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices", "uk_weights_audit", # The #970 projection fence: a seam that cannot project cannot # certify the candidate's sub-exempt gainers. diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py index 1de393f375..5376394806 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ -"""is_apprentice on the UK spine: employees aged 21 to 24 at DfE's rate.""" +"""is_apprentice on the UK spine: employees aged 21 to 24, realized to a per-head rate.""" from __future__ import annotations @@ -14,14 +14,13 @@ derive_is_apprentice, ) from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.national_frame import uk_national_frame -from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.take_up_contract import load_uk_take_up_contract from test_support.microcosm_build.uk_frs_stochastic import _Contract _STATUSES = ("FT_EMPLOYED", "PT_EMPLOYED", "FT_SELF_EMPLOYED", "STUDENT") def _people(n_per_cell: int = 2000) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Every age from 18 to 30 crossed with four statuses.""" + """Every age from 18 to 30 crossed with four statuses, one household each.""" ages = np.arange(18, 31) rows = [ @@ -29,13 +28,26 @@ def _people(n_per_cell: int = 2000) -> pd.DataFrame: ] frame = pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=["age", "employment_status"]) frame.insert(0, "person_id", np.arange(1, len(frame) + 1)) + frame.insert(1, "person_household_id", frame["person_id"]) return frame +def _small(ages, statuses, *, households=None) -> pd.DataFrame: + ids = np.arange(11, 11 + len(ages)) + return pd.DataFrame( + { + "person_id": ids, + "person_household_id": ids if households is None else households, + "age": ages, + "employment_status": statuses, + } + ) + + def test_only_employees_aged_21_to_24_are_flagged() -> None: person = _people() - flags = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.06) + flags = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.06).flags age = person["age"].to_numpy() employee = person["employment_status"].isin(["FT_EMPLOYED", "PT_EMPLOYED"]) @@ -45,82 +57,130 @@ def test_only_employees_aged_21_to_24_are_flagged() -> None: assert flags[eligible].any() -def test_flags_match_the_per_head_rate_over_ages_21_to_24() -> None: +def test_flagged_weight_is_nearest_the_per_head_target() -> None: person = _people() rng = np.random.default_rng(0) weights = rng.uniform(100.0, 3000.0, len(person)) rate = 0.06 - flags = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=rate, person_weights=weights) + draw = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=rate, person_weights=weights) age = person["age"].to_numpy() in_ages = (age >= 21) & (age <= 24) - # Half the people aged 21 to 24 are employees, so the rate among them is - # about 0.12, and the weighted flags are about 6% of the age group. - share = weights[flags].sum() / weights[in_ages].sum() - assert share == pytest.approx(rate, rel=0.05) - - -def test_draw_is_identity_keyed_and_uses_the_conditional_rate() -> None: - person = pd.DataFrame( - { - "person_id": [11, 12, 13, 14], - "age": [22, 22, 23, 40], - "employment_status": [ - "FT_EMPLOYED", - "STUDENT", - "PT_EMPLOYED", - "FT_EMPLOYED", - ], - } + target = rate * weights[in_ages].sum() + realized = weights[draw.flags].sum() + # The walk stops at the cumulative weight nearest the target, so it misses + # by at most half the last person's weight. + assert abs(realized - target) <= weights.max() / 2 + receipt = draw.receipt + assert receipt["rate_key"] == APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY + assert receipt["population_mass"] == pytest.approx(weights[in_ages].sum()) + assert receipt["target"] == pytest.approx(target) + assert receipt["realized_mass"] == pytest.approx(realized) + assert receipt["realization_deviation"] == pytest.approx(realized - target) + assert receipt["cap_bound"] is False + assert receipt["eligible_support"] == "30+" + assert receipt["flagged_support"] == "30+" + + +def test_people_are_flagged_in_the_order_of_their_identity_uniform() -> None: + person = _small( + [22, 22, 23, 24, 40, 23], + [ + "FT_EMPLOYED", + "STUDENT", + "PT_EMPLOYED", + "FT_EMPLOYED", + "FT_EMPLOYED", + "FT_EMPLOYED", + ], ) - weights = np.array([1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0]) - rate = 0.2 + weights = np.array([1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0]) + # Five people aged 21 to 24 at 0.4 a head: a target of two people. + draw = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.4, person_weights=weights) - flags = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=rate, person_weights=weights) - - # W(21 to 24) = 4 and W(eligible) = 3, so p = 0.2 * 4 / 3. draws = stable_identity_uniforms( person["person_id"].to_numpy(), seed=0, salt=APPRENTICE_OUTPUT ) - expected = np.array([True, False, True, False]) & (draws < 0.2 * 4 / 3) - np.testing.assert_array_equal(flags, expected) + eligible = np.array([True, False, True, True, False, True]) + first_two = np.argsort(np.where(eligible, draws, np.inf))[:2] + expected = np.zeros(len(person), dtype=bool) + expected[first_two] = True + np.testing.assert_array_equal(draw.flags, expected) reordered = derive_is_apprentice( person.iloc[::-1].reset_index(drop=True), - rate=rate, + rate=0.4, person_weights=weights[::-1], ) - np.testing.assert_array_equal(reordered, expected[::-1]) + np.testing.assert_array_equal(reordered.flags, expected[::-1]) -def test_conditional_rate_is_capped_at_one() -> None: - person = pd.DataFrame( - { - "person_id": [1, 2, 3], - "age": [21, 22, 23], - "employment_status": ["FT_EMPLOYED", "UNEMPLOYED", "UNEMPLOYED"], - } - ) +def test_nobody_is_flagged_when_the_target_is_nearer_zero() -> None: + person = _small([22, 30], ["FT_EMPLOYED", "STUDENT"]) - flags = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.9) + # A target of 0.1 people sits nearer zero than the one employee's weight. + draw = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.1, person_weights=np.ones(2)) - np.testing.assert_array_equal(flags, [True, False, False]) + assert not draw.flags.any() + assert draw.receipt["realized_mass"] == 0.0 + assert draw.receipt["cap_bound"] is False + + +def test_a_short_eligible_weight_flags_every_eligible_employee() -> None: + person = _small([21, 22, 23], ["FT_EMPLOYED", "UNEMPLOYED", "UNEMPLOYED"]) + + draw = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.9) + + np.testing.assert_array_equal(draw.flags, [True, False, False]) + assert draw.receipt["cap_bound"] is True def test_no_eligible_employee_flags_nobody() -> None: - person = pd.DataFrame( - { - "person_id": [1, 2], - "age": [22, 30], - "employment_status": ["STUDENT", "FT_EMPLOYED"], - } + person = _small([22, 30], ["STUDENT", "FT_EMPLOYED"]) + + draw = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.06) + + assert not draw.flags.any() + assert draw.receipt["eligible_support"] == 0 + assert draw.receipt["cap_bound"] is True + + +def test_receipt_withholds_a_flagged_weight_on_fewer_than_ten_households() -> None: + person = _small([22] * 20, ["FT_EMPLOYED"] * 20) + + draw = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.25) + + assert int(draw.flags.sum()) == 5 + assert draw.receipt["flagged_support"] == "<10" + assert draw.receipt["realized_mass"] == "<10" + assert draw.receipt["realization_deviation"] == "<10" + assert draw.receipt["population_mass"] == 20.0 + + +def test_receipt_withholds_a_population_on_fewer_than_ten_households() -> None: + # Six people aged 21 to 24 in three households, with a one-person target. + person = _small( + [22, 23, 21, 24, 22, 23], + ["FT_EMPLOYED"] * 6, + households=[1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3], ) - assert not derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.06).any() + draw = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=1 / 6) + + receipt = draw.receipt + assert receipt["population_support"] == "<10" + for key in ( + "population_mass", + "eligible_mass", + "target", + "realized_mass", + "realization_deviation", + ): + assert receipt[key] == "<10", key def test_refuses_a_frame_without_employment_status() -> None: - person = pd.DataFrame({"person_id": [1], "age": [22]}) + person = pd.DataFrame({"person_id": [1], "person_household_id": [1], "age": [22]}) with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="employment_status"): derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.06) @@ -156,16 +216,32 @@ def _two_household_frame(**extra_person_columns): ) -def test_stage_flags_use_the_frame_household_weights() -> None: - stored = UKFRSPersonDrawsStageTransform(contract=_Contract(), stage=None)( - _two_household_frame() - ).table("person") +def test_stage_realizes_the_target_at_the_frame_household_weights() -> None: + stage = UKFRSPersonDrawsStageTransform(contract=_Contract(), stage=None) + + stored = stage(_two_household_frame()).table("person") # Household 1 holds the employees and weighs 1, household 2 the students - # and weighs 3, so p = 0.06 * 4 / 1 = 0.24 among the employees. + # and weighs 3: the target is 0.06 x (2000 + 6000) = 480 employees. flags = stored[APPRENTICE_OUTPUT].to_numpy() assert not flags[2000:].any() - assert flags[:2000].mean() == pytest.approx(0.24, abs=0.03) + assert int(flags[:2000].sum()) == 480 + receipt = stage.checkpoint_metadata()["evidence"] + assert receipt["stage"] == "frs_person_draws" + apprentices = receipt["apprentice_receipt"] + assert apprentices["build_year"] == 2024 + assert apprentices["rate"] == 0.06 + # Two households carry everyone, so the receipt withholds the weights. + assert apprentices["population_support"] == "<10" + assert apprentices["target"] == "<10" + assert apprentices["flagged_support"] == "<10" + + +def test_stage_has_no_receipt_before_it_runs() -> None: + stage = UKFRSPersonDrawsStageTransform(contract=_Contract(), stage=None) + + with pytest.raises(RuntimeError, match="completed stage run"): + stage.checkpoint_metadata() def test_stage_refuses_a_stored_flag() -> None: @@ -173,14 +249,3 @@ def test_stage_refuses_a_stored_flag() -> None: with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="already stored"): UKFRSPersonDrawsStageTransform(contract=_Contract(), stage=None)(frame) - - -def test_contract_carries_the_dfe_rate_for_the_build_year() -> None: - contract = load_uk_take_up_contract() - - entry = contract.entry(APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY) - - assert entry.raw["output"] == APPRENTICE_OUTPUT - assert entry.raw["entity"] == "person" - # DfE 2024/25: 252,960 participants aged 19 to 24 over 4,221,504 people. - assert contract.rate(APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY, contract.build_year) == 0.05992 diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_source_stages.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_source_stages.py index d6a9e5ff0d..46ec7753eb 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_source_stages.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_source_stages.py @@ -960,7 +960,7 @@ def test_engine_predictor_and_rewrite_constants_match_manifest(self) -> None: "extended_childcare_age_0_usage", "extended_childcare_age_1_usage", "marriage_allowance", - "apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24", + "apprentice_stock_19_to_24", "tv_ownership_rate", "tv_licence_evasion_rate", "first_time_buyer_rate", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py index 8bdb248900..fd3b1f22dd 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py @@ -3155,3 +3155,111 @@ def failing(change, fragment: str) -> None: parameters["amount_scale_bounds"] = bounds with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="amount_scale_bounds"): run(receipt) + + +def _apprentice_receipt(**overrides): + """An is_apprentice receipt at the contract's 2024 rate (microcosm#1373).""" + + from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.take_up_contract import load_uk_take_up_contract + + rate = load_uk_take_up_contract().rate("apprentice_stock_19_to_24", 2024) + receipt = { + "build_year": 2024, + "output": "is_apprentice", + "rate_key": "apprentice_stock_19_to_24", + "rate": rate, + "ages": [21, 24], + "eligible_statuses": ["FT_EMPLOYED", "PT_EMPLOYED"], + "population_mass": 1_000_000.0, + "eligible_mass": 600_000.0, + "target": rate * 1_000_000.0, + "cap_bound": False, + "population_support": "30+", + "eligible_support": "30+", + "flagged_support": "30+", + "realized_mass": rate * 1_000_000.0 + 500.0, + "realization_deviation": 500.0, + } + receipt.update(overrides) + return {"stage": "frs_person_draws", "apprentice_receipt": receipt} + + +def test_apprentice_gate_holds_the_draw_to_the_contract_rate() -> None: + gate_id = "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices" + assert _passed(_gate(gate_id, _apprentice_receipt())) + rate = _apprentice_receipt()["apprentice_receipt"]["rate"] + far = rate * 1_000_000.0 * 1.06 + for receipt, fragment in ( + ( + _apprentice_receipt(rate_key="apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24"), + "reads", + ), + (_apprentice_receipt(rate=0.05992), "not the contract's"), + (_apprentice_receipt(target=1.0), "not the rate times"), + (_apprentice_receipt(flagged_support="12"), "printed band"), + ( + _apprentice_receipt( + realized_mass=far, realization_deviation=far - rate * 1_000_000.0 + ), + "away from it", + ), + (_apprentice_receipt(realization_deviation=0.0), "realized minus target"), + ( + _apprentice_receipt( + flagged_support="<10", + realized_mass="<10", + realization_deviation="<10", + ), + "fewer than ten", + ), + (_apprentice_receipt(cap_bound=True), "cap_bound is True"), + ( + _apprentice_receipt( + population_support="<10", + population_mass="<10", + target="<10", + realization_deviation="<10", + ), + "population_mass, target", + ), + ): + result = _gate(gate_id, receipt) + assert not result.passed + assert any(fragment in failure for failure in result.failures), result.failures + + +def test_apprentice_gate_accepts_a_cap_bound_draw_that_flags_every_employee() -> None: + gate_id = "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices" + rate = _apprentice_receipt()["apprentice_receipt"]["rate"] + short = _apprentice_receipt( + eligible_mass=20_000.0, + cap_bound=True, + realized_mass=20_000.0, + realization_deviation=20_000.0 - rate * 1_000_000.0, + ) + assert _passed(_gate(gate_id, short)) + + partial = _apprentice_receipt( + eligible_mass=20_000.0, + cap_bound=True, + realized_mass=10_000.0, + realization_deviation=10_000.0 - rate * 1_000_000.0, + ) + result = _gate(gate_id, partial) + assert not result.passed + assert "every eligible employee" in result.failures[0] + + +def test_apprentice_gate_is_a_population_fact_check() -> None: + """A synthetic fixture is not the population DfE's rate describes (#1373).""" + + gates = { + entry["id"]: entry + for entry in json.loads( + (_TEST_PATHS.package / "src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json").read_text() + )["gates"] + } + entry = gates["uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices"] + assert entry["population_fact_check"] is True + assert entry["criticality"] == "release_blocking" + assert entry["evidence_absent_blocks"] is True diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py index c7fb1e6b81..a2cebd3342 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py @@ -66,9 +66,9 @@ def test_uk_contract_loads_and_selects_build_year_rates() -> None: 0.384, 0.0385, 0.593, - # microcosm#1372: DfE apprenticeship participation per head aged 19 to - # 24 in England, 2024/25. - 0.05992, + # microcosm#1373: DfE apprentices in learning at the start of 2024/25 + # (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24 in England. + 0.036887, ] diff --git a/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py b/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py index b538a315b5..4611bcb0bf 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py @@ -451,13 +451,13 @@ def compatibility_claim_declarer_error(declared_by: object) -> str | None: # fingerprint derives from the manifest digest. Editing the spec moves all # three here in the same reviewed change. _UK_GATE_BATTERY_POLICY_SHA256 = ( - "2501837a968eb1711a7f81d9807f163ac508aff22a724b3a910f35767d4caf3d" + "1122627a092c7a6dc0b26d69fe7a4480e50954cdf29609e22865d2d181234fe8" ) _UK_GATE_BATTERY_GATES_MANIFEST_SHA256 = ( - "bfb0af58fd3ece15102875a18c4cb4e991ae16bf0f1dbffb7dd765dcf0ff9073" + "e866e69a08a12febdf8e930f02e10319287583d7832fd06aa1f63ed08f40c63d" ) _UK_GATE_BATTERY_SPEC_FINGERPRINT = ( - "723bc27b25335ad3220647e78ec3cc4b1359cffa4407a946b1a9c1f2231e4a0f" + "96341ff549405a668239b0a5d79c088b360d92a46d636c6e83d406d2896df669" ) #: Spec entry id -> the legacy gate name whose observable detail checks #: apply unchanged (the battery re-keys the report by entry id; the gate @@ -557,6 +557,7 @@ def compatibility_claim_declarer_error(declared_by: object) -> str | None: "uk_stage_regional_home_values_ranking": ("stage_health", "transferred"), "uk_stage_property_purchases_fit": ("stage_health", "transferred"), "uk_stage_uc_legacy_closure_take_up_contract": ("stage_health", "transferred"), + "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices": ("stage_health", "transferred"), "uk_stage_age_tail_targets": ("stage_health", "assembled"), "uk_stage_frs_relationships_composition": ("stage_health", "assembled"), "uk_ledger_compile_parity_local_incumbent_2025": ( @@ -662,6 +663,7 @@ def compatibility_claim_declarer_error(declared_by: object) -> str | None: "uk_stage_regional_home_values_ranking", "uk_stage_property_purchases_fit", "uk_stage_uc_legacy_closure_take_up_contract", + "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices", "uk_stage_age_tail_targets", "uk_stage_frs_relationships_composition", "uk_cgt_projection_entrants", @@ -882,6 +884,7 @@ def _uk_line_cut_tag_re(release_id: str) -> re.Pattern[str] | None: "uk_stage_etb_vat_support", "uk_stage_frs_hmrc_spine_leaves_signal", "uk_stage_frs_annual_income_spells", + "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices", "uk_stage_frs_relationships_composition", "uk_stage_high_value_home_support_mass", "uk_stage_hmrc_cgt_asset_type_spine_summary", @@ -952,10 +955,10 @@ def _uk_line_cut_tag_re(release_id: str) -> re.Pattern[str] | None: _UK_CERTIFICATION_PART_DIGESTS: Mapping[str, Mapping[str, str]] = { "spine": { "gates_manifest_sha256": ( - "4957c10663ddca8aeea40646d9a48ab5dcc1a63ea004ce45810c5238dcca5847" + "2a5d9db8ddcf2592c1beccecb8cfe80ff7936c56936083344dbbe9a914d49d85" ), "policy_sha256": ( - "3dbfb2c06c01c25967fae8998e7460d0ff2ecde4e440d66a7350d80e79560e16" + "d919b4a29b8db7c1e6322af5a20827c6818912ee07a8c0824fe875f1459701cd" ), }, "calibration_seam": { @@ -968,10 +971,10 @@ def _uk_line_cut_tag_re(release_id: str) -> re.Pattern[str] | None: }, "release_cut": { "gates_manifest_sha256": ( - "a7b17431dd71284bf93b5337036bc1b9b64a17eab0b161f78549ed72ab0ca61c" + "e2dc27a5e5d9ef3a1e3c12d9fa66a09cc1e2b212dd032397b63f9d3edcfeb15d" ), "policy_sha256": ( - "ab5f2a1c14ffe72cbc5d65c7658827b81b9470a56278e6f961f3b6dfa12ca2d7" + "7c464382cb8afdc7b16084de33170b0eeabbe8d1ee5e4ca83c33c46610e826e6" ), }, } diff --git a/packages/microcosm-data/tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py b/packages/microcosm-data/tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py index ac36e779e4..624329f235 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-data/tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-data/tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py @@ -213,13 +213,13 @@ def _trusted_terminal_gate_signing_key(monkeypatch) -> None: UK_GATE_BATTERY_PRODUCER = "microcosm.build.gate_battery" UK_GATE_BATTERY_SIGNING_KEY_ENV = "MICROCOSM_UK_TERMINAL_GATE_SIGNING_KEY" UK_GATE_BATTERY_POLICY_SHA256 = ( - "2501837a968eb1711a7f81d9807f163ac508aff22a724b3a910f35767d4caf3d" + "1122627a092c7a6dc0b26d69fe7a4480e50954cdf29609e22865d2d181234fe8" ) UK_GATE_BATTERY_GATES_MANIFEST_SHA256 = ( - "bfb0af58fd3ece15102875a18c4cb4e991ae16bf0f1dbffb7dd765dcf0ff9073" + "e866e69a08a12febdf8e930f02e10319287583d7832fd06aa1f63ed08f40c63d" ) UK_GATE_BATTERY_SPEC_FINGERPRINT = ( - "723bc27b25335ad3220647e78ec3cc4b1359cffa4407a946b1a9c1f2231e4a0f" + "96341ff549405a668239b0a5d79c088b360d92a46d636c6e83d406d2896df669" ) UK_GATE_BATTERY_DEGENERATE_EVIDENCE_SHA256 = ( "6a179222c6b6058ad9caacfd347f7bdb8cb98a62237b50d1fc1136df09337251" @@ -354,6 +354,11 @@ def _trusted_terminal_gate_signing_key(monkeypatch) -> None: "transferred", None, ), + "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices": ( + "stage_health", + "transferred", + None, + ), "uk_stage_hmrc_cgt_asset_type_spine_summary": ( "stage_health", "transferred", @@ -1425,6 +1430,7 @@ def _gate_battery_payload( "uk_stage_regional_home_values_ranking": "regional_home_values", "uk_stage_property_purchases_fit": "property_purchases", "uk_stage_uc_legacy_closure_take_up_contract": "uc_legacy_closure_take_up", + "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices": "frs_person_draws", "uk_stage_age_tail_targets": "age_tail", "uk_stage_frs_relationships_composition": "frs_relationships", } diff --git a/test_support/microcosm_build/uk_frs_stochastic.py b/test_support/microcosm_build/uk_frs_stochastic.py index e4c8aca3b5..1dfa51ee07 100644 --- a/test_support/microcosm_build/uk_frs_stochastic.py +++ b/test_support/microcosm_build/uk_frs_stochastic.py @@ -83,7 +83,7 @@ class _Contract: "first_time_buyer_rate": 0.5, "property_purchase_rate": 0.5, "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share": 0.593, - "apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24": 0.06, + "apprentice_stock_19_to_24": 0.06, } def rate(self, key: str, build_year: int | None = None) -> float: From 9e2a4682ba328bc3c540cd3a115e9d44b9e5eb3b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 26 Oct 2026 14:57:40 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 06/12] Regenerate the UK coverage manifest for the apprentice draw (#1373, pin pass) The stage manifest moved, so every source_manifest_sha256 moves with it; no column changes. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json | 44 +++++++++---------- 1 file changed, 22 insertions(+), 22 deletions(-) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json index 73a4eace3c..27ccdf3433 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json @@ -470,7 +470,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains incidence anchor moves the mass of non-liable clone households back to their paired originals until the sub-exempt and loss-making clone mass match the Advani-Summers reporter composition at the redrawn liable mass; every pair's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "Advani and Summers (2020), Capital Gains and UK Inequality, CAGE Working Paper 465", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support, the HMRC Table 3 redrawn gains on the spine and Advani-Summers capital-gains incidence" @@ -493,7 +493,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "Advani and Summers (2020), Capital Gains and UK Inequality, CAGE Working Paper 465", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support, and Advani-Summers capital-gains incidence" @@ -516,7 +516,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains residential split divides every household carrying liable gainers into arms weighted by the solved residential probabilities, one arm per subset of residential gainers; every household's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/capital-gains-tax-statistics", "survey": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics 2026 release, Table 8 (UK residential property disposals, 2024-25, administrative) on the amounts the Table 3 redraw placed" @@ -538,7 +538,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains support split divides the wealthiest households of each HMRC Table 3 income band into light copies at equal weight; every household's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics, July 2026 release, Table 3 for 2024-25, via the vendored conditioning facts", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support and HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics Table 3 (2024-25 individuals by size of gain and taxable income)" @@ -567,7 +567,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "ETB public-services imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 8856 Effects of Taxes and Benefits household tab, DfT rail fare index, and public NHS activity/cost table.", "survey": "Effects of Taxes and Benefits 1977-2024 and NHS age-gender public table" @@ -587,7 +587,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "ETB VAT expenditure-rate imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 8856 Effects of Taxes and Benefits household tab and cited VAT anchor resource.", "survey": "Effects of Taxes and Benefits 1977-2024" @@ -609,7 +609,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "High-value home support divides every owner household in the top value stratum of its region into light copies at equal weight; every household's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "Microcosm structural operator (microcosm#1240 fix 1); no publisher input", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 and SPI synthetic support, after the WAS wealth draw and the regional property uprating" @@ -630,7 +630,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "CGT asset-type assignment on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/capital-gains-tax-statistics", "survey": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics 2026 release, Table 8 (UK residential property disposals, 2024-25, administrative), Table 4.1 (individuals claiming Business Asset Disposal Relief or Investors' Relief by band of qualifying gain, 2024-25, administrative) and Table 7 (disposals, proceeds and gains by asset type, 2023-24, sample-based), vendored from the pinned Chronicle feed" @@ -654,7 +654,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "conditioning_resource": "hmrc_cgt_conditioning_facts.json", "conditioning_resource_sha256": "e54cdad4cfe4498bfddb329d6b0aef468ea542a55c1970df574859626a3d19d3", @@ -744,7 +744,7 @@ "full_frs_tei_band_unavailable" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "hmrc_surface": "2023-24", "mapped_build_period": "2024", @@ -812,7 +812,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "LCFS consumption imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 9603 Living Costs and Food Survey 2024-25 (2nd edition) household/person tabs and the vendored Chronicle facts for NEED 2024 mean kWh, DESNZ Energy Trends and QEP average prices paid for calendar 2024, road-fuel outturn (DESNZ, HMRC, ONS Consumer Trends) and road fuel by vehicle type (DESNZ), ONS Consumer Trends household spending by COICOP division, the DfT VEH1103 licensed-car stock, NTS bus use, and the DfT and devolved bus finance tables and fares indices.", "survey": "Living Costs and Food Survey 2024-25" @@ -838,7 +838,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "NTS bus-travel imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "Department for Transport National Travel Survey, UK Data Service SN 5340 (End User Licence, 19th edition, November 2025), DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-5340-19; local licensed tab files (household, individual, trip); England residents only from 2013.", "survey": "National Travel Survey 2002-2024" @@ -858,7 +858,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Private-school attendance stored on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "policyengine-uk attends_private_school (the gov.simulation.private_school_vat attendance rates and factor), evaluated by the pinned engine", "survey": "policyengine-uk private-school attendance imputation, stored at the spine's weights" @@ -881,7 +881,7 @@ "property_finance_costs" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/property-rental-income-statistics", "survey": "Survey of Personal Incomes Public Use Tape 2022-23 and HMRC Property Rental Income Statistics 2026 (tax year 2024-25)" @@ -902,7 +902,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Annual property purchases imputed on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-stamp-tax-statistics", "survey": "HMRC Annual Stamp Tax Statistics 2024 to 2025 (corrected 11 March 2026), Tables 6b, 8a and 8b" @@ -925,7 +925,7 @@ "property_wealth" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "uk/high_value_home_value_knots.json, built by tools/build_uk_high_value_home_stock.py from PolicyEngine/chronicle#343's registrations", "survey": "HM Land Registry Price Paid latest sales uprated with the UK House Price Index, owner-weighted by region (the dense value node's knots, region level)" @@ -949,7 +949,7 @@ "non_residential_property_value" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "MHCLG dwellings and the UK House Price Index regional average price averaged over the twelve months of calendar 2024 from the July 2026 full file, the frame's valuation basis, so the engine's annual uprating from 2024 projects the value once (microcosm#1240 fix 5).", "survey": "Public regional property reference" @@ -977,7 +977,7 @@ "employment_income" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC, Salary sacrifice reform for pension contributions effective from 6 April 2029", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 salary-sacrifice respondents and HMRC salary-sacrifice reform analysis" @@ -1010,7 +1010,7 @@ "household_source_id" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "Reserved SPI support households for the HMRC Table 2.5 total-income bands from GBP 200,000, stacked at the published band taxpayer count over the donors per band (PolicyEngine/chronicle#280 lane).", "survey": "Survey of Personal Incomes Public Use Tape 2022-23 and HMRC Income Tax liabilities statistics July 2026 Table 2.5" @@ -1032,7 +1032,7 @@ "student_loan_plan" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "Explore Education Statistics Table 6a, Higher education total", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 and Student Loans Company borrower forecasts for England" @@ -1054,7 +1054,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "WAS Lifetime ISA imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "Office for National Statistics Wealth and Assets Survey, UK Data Service SN 7215, DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-7215-20; local licensed round-8 person and household tabs (interviews April 2020 to March 2022, Great Britain).", "survey": "Wealth and Assets Survey round 8" @@ -1093,7 +1093,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "WAS wealth imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "5be1572121ba9c09f698eba7e50a24c8d2c6eba8d5b0eef0bfc3a365aebb9011", + "source_manifest_sha256": "2e3c9285ea3ee43f436227d8490564be5c87a0067e587e7bf5ee62a1f4634d43", "source_vintages": { "source": "Office for National Statistics Wealth and Assets Survey, UK Data Service SN 7215, DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-7215-20; local licensed 2006-22 household tab.", "survey": "Wealth and Assets Survey round 8" From aa06c5738ca783a5305dc949fc94ccdc527370e7 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 26 Oct 2026 15:18:23 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 07/12] Regenerate the H2 UK spine parity fixture for the apprentice draw (#1373, pin pass) frs_person_draws gains the is_apprentice operation, output and note. The regeneration also carries lcfs_consumption's notes as main now has them (5d50e8729 edited them after main's last regeneration). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json | 17 ++++++++++++++--- .../fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json | 2 +- 2 files changed, 15 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json index e9c5d8b809..82b4fb392a 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json @@ -1812,7 +1812,7 @@ "attends_private_school_random_draw", "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" ], - "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced.", + "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced. is_apprentice has no FRS source (no apprenticeship variable in the 2022-23 to 2024-25 adult tables; TRAIN2, NI3TRAIN and TRAINEE code government employment schemes) and is drawn to DfE's point-in-time rate for employees aged 21 to 24 only.", "operations": [ { "draw": "would_claim_marriage_allowance", @@ -1848,13 +1848,24 @@ "kind": "assign_period_constant", "output": "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", "period_source": "build_year" + }, + { + "assignment_unit": "person", + "draw": "is_apprentice", + "eligibility": "employees (employment_status FT_EMPLOYED or PT_EMPLOYED, from frs_employment) aged 21 to 24: SSCBA 1992 s.9A already zero-rates every earner under 21 and s.9B ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so no other age changes employer NICs, and leaving them False keeps is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged", + "kind": "assign_binary_from_rate", + "output": "is_apprentice", + "rate_derivation": "the contract's apprentice_stock_19_to_24 is DfE's England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24, a point-in-time count taken as uniform across those ages and UK-wide; the target is r times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the frame's household weights, and eligible employees are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it (uc_take_up's rule), or all of them when they weigh no more than it; the receipt records the target, the flagged weight and the support bands, and uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices gates them", + "rate_key": "apprentice_stock_19_to_24", + "seed": 0 } ], "outputs": [ "would_claim_marriage_allowance", "would_claim_scp", "attends_private_school_random_draw", - "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" + "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", + "is_apprentice" ], "rewrites": [], "source": "Sourced UK take-up contract rates and identity-keyed deterministic draws.", @@ -4003,7 +4014,7 @@ "betting_exchange_commission", "horse_and_dog_pool_betting_net_losses" ], - "notes": "Ports the incumbent LCFS consumption QRF, including NEED energy raking, with adjudicated weighted fits and an identity-keyed seed-0 fuel flag. The vehicle count is a numeric QRF predictor on both sides (LCFS a124 on the donor, the was_wealth draw of WAS vcarnr8 on the recipient, both clipped to 0-5), which retires the incumbent's WAS-to-LCFS has-fuel bridge (microcosm#890 A). The recipient fuel flag draws each of a household's vehicles as zero-emission at the battery-electric and fuel-cell share of the vendored DfT VEH1103 licensed-car stock (2024, Great Britain; plug-in hybrids count as fuel buyers), replacing the hand-copied NTS share (microcosm#890 E2): a household with vehicles buys fuel unless every one of them is zero-emission, so it is flagged at one minus that share raised to its vehicle count, and a one-vehicle household keeps the draw it had when the whole household was drawn at once (microcosm#1278; before, a household with several vehicles was all one or the other). The frame holds no fuel type, so the draw, keyed on the household identity, is what makes a vehicle-owning household a fuel buyer: it is random with respect to income and every other characteristic. With the redraw of microcosm#1113 every flagged household buys fuel, so this flag alone sets fuel incidence; who holds the zero-emission cars by income is a known residual. The household input uses_energy_prepayment_meter, which policyengine-uk reads for the July 2023 to March 2024 Energy Price Guarantee prepayment discount (PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk#2098, from 2.123.3), is drawn by the declared impute_prepayment_meter step (microcosm#1110): the donor prepays when it last put money on an electricity, gas or combined key or meter (b1751, b1701, b233, which the LCF asks only of prepayment-meter households) or its diary records a slot-meter payment (c45114, c45214), so electricity-only prepayment counts and a household with no meter payment, including one that did not answer, does not; a weighted regime-gated QRF on the chain's predictors fits that flag and each recipient draws it at uniforms keyed on its household id, which moves no other draw. The release exports it: policyengine-uk reads it from 2.123.3 and an older engine, Microcosm's locked one among them, ignores a column it does not know; the incumbent does not carry it until uk-data#539, so it is a reviewed extra column of the export surface. The frame flags about 3.0 million Great Britain households (10.5 %) at prior weights, against the around three million prepayment households the government counted when the discount began in July 2023 (a different reference period, households in both). Energy support clipping is exempt because NEED raking governs those columns. Bus fares are clipped to donor support before the pricing step (Mar\u00eda's rulings 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-17), which bounds the region no area prices (Wales keeps the chain's raw draw) while the priced regions move beyond donor support afterwards; for that reason the column carries no committed support bound for the terminal gate. Domestic energy is raked in kWh to the NEED 2024 shape at the DESNZ level and priced at the average prices paid (microcosm#890 F, chronicle#270), where both NEED rakes take their mean-kWh margins from the vendored NEED 2024 tables (England and Wales by income band, tenure, property type and region; Scotland by income band, tenure and property type with the all-dwellings mean as its region margin; Northern Ireland untouched), the declared price_domestic_energy step converts spend to kWh and back at each household's QEP price region through the committed crosswalk using the calendar-2024 average variable unit cost and fixed cost across payment methods, standard metering, including VAT (Northern Ireland gas at the UK average because QEP publishes no Northern Ireland gas row), a gas fixed cost only for connected households, the gas connection imposed on the recipient frame at the published share of each region (DESNZ subnational gas meters over electricity meters, 2024) by disconnecting gas-positive households in an identity-keyed uniform order, skipping a household whose weight would overshoot the published share (Northern Ireland has no subnational row and keeps the positive-gas rule), and, where the draw leaves a region below its share, by the declared connect_rule (microcosm#1164): two weighted fits on the chain's predictors give each zero-gas household the probability that a donor like it pays for gas (a gradient-boosted classifier of the donor's gas payers) and the gas such a donor pays (a regime-gated QRF of the payers' gas spend, at quantiles keyed on the household id), and the region's zero-gas households are connected in an identity-keyed order drawn in proportion to that probability, by the same weight-fitting walk, until the share is met. The labelled energy split leaves about 80 % of donors paying for gas against the about 85 % of homes DESNZ counts gas meters for (the derivation it replaced gave gas to 98 %), so without the connect leg nine of the eleven Great Britain regions fell short of their share, and after the four-margin NEED rake one factor per fuel scales the kWh so the prior-weighted frame total equals the DESNZ Energy Trends domestic consumption at actual temperature summed over the four quarters of calendar 2024; NEED gas means are per gas-metered household, so the gas kWh margins are raked over connected households only while electricity is raked over every household, and the energy_rake gate recomputes every NEED mean, the DESNZ level and the connection shares from the vendored rows. After the level, no household is left above the domestic meter definitions behind the DESNZ total (NEED Annex B: gas meters under 73,200 kWh a year, electricity meters under 50,000 kWh on profile classes 1 and 2; Mar\u00eda's ruling of 2026-10-12 on microcosm#1207's extreme energy values): the declared household_kwh_ceiling caps a household there, the households below it in the capped households' own NEED cells are re-raked to those cells' levelled means, and a proportional step restores the DESNZ total (microcosm#1164); the receipt counts the households capped and the share of the total they gave up, and the energy_rake gate checks both. Mobile homes have no NEED property-type row, so the rake takes them to the all-dwellings mean, the incumbent's translation; where every mobile home of a NEED geography draws a spend at or below the standing charge, that cell has no kWh for the rake to scale, and the declared zero_kwh_cells_at_need_mean starts it at its NEED mean before the first sweep (microcosm#1240). The receipt lists the cells it started, and the energy_rake gate fails on a started cell the stage does not declare and on any other cell with a zero mean. Both rakes band households on gross income, NEED's concept: the donor on LCFS p344p, cash income before tax, National Insurance, council tax and pension contributions, and the recipient on the same concept, its HBAI net income with the deductions policyengine-uk takes to reach it added back (council tax and domestic rates, income tax, National Insurance, student loan repayments, employee and personal pension contributions, maintenance and child payments, LVT), which the stage materializes for that band alone (microcosm#1164). Before it the recipient fell back to its HBAI net income, which put households in too low a band; the engine's household_gross_income would put them in too high a one, since it adds capital gains and the in-kind NHS, education and transport spending to cash income. The disconnection walk's seed-0 uniform order makes every group of households (dwelling type, income band, support channel) lose the same expected share of its drawn connected mass, so only the level of the drawn connection moves; the smallest-drawn-gas-first order it replaces piled the disconnections onto low-draw flats once the SPI support households drew gas from their own incomes, and NEED's Scottish property-type means then implied a level 2.6 % above the Scottish all-dwellings mean, a margin conflict the rake could not close. Bus fares are priced from journeys (microcosm#930), where the nts_bus_travel stage imputes each person's annual bus-in-London and other-local-bus trips and their concessionary eligibility, and the declared price_bus_journeys step sets bus_fare_spending as the sum over the household's non-eligible persons of trips times boardings per resident trip (the published BUS01 journeys over the published NTS0705a trips per resident times the ONS population) times the yield per fare-paying boarding (BUS05ai receipts over journeys less concessionary journeys), per area; bus-in-London trips take the London area's price for every resident, other-local-bus trips the price of the residence area (England outside London; Scotland and Northern Ireland from their own receipts and journeys with England's trip rate as the declared proxy); Wales is unpriced and keeps the raw draw. The chain still draws bus_fare_spending so later targets condition on the same raw draw; the emitted column is the priced value. The receipt records every factor, the frame-implied boardings beside the published ones and the frame's eligible trip share beside the publisher's concessionary boarding share, so the prior-weight fit of the bound receipts targets is read as a composition check, never a level the stage set; the #890 incidence draw and fare rake are retired. The 2024-25 diary (UKDS SN 9603, 2nd edition, whose household tab carries the annual weight as cal_weight_annual, the name weighta had; microcosm#1164) is moved to the base year by the declared uprate_donor_columns step (microcosm#890). Consumption columns and bus fares take the engine's CPI index from the April-to-March diary year, placed on the calendar-year index at three quarters of 2024 and one of 2025, back a quarter to calendar 2024 (microcosm#1113; the diary sits a quarter past it, so the factor is below one; the fare factor survives only where no fare cell levels the column, i.e. Wales). Income predictors take a factor of one: the diary year is the FRS 2024-25 year they are matched against. Petrol and diesel take the DESNZ pump-price times HMRC litres per head outturn from the vendored road_fuel_anchors.json, which sets only their donor distribution because the level step follows; the energy columns are exempt because the NEED 2024 shape at the DESNZ level and the QEP average prices paid set their level. The household adult and child counts (LCFS G018 and G019, the survey's age-18 split) predict on both sides; the recipient counts its members by age, not through the engine's is_adult and is_child flags, which policyengine-uk#1896 deprecates (uk-data#486, microcosm#1095). Road fuel incidence and level are set by two declared steps (microcosm#1113). The two-week diary leaves about a third of car-owning donors with no fuel purchase, which the chain reproduces among the households the fuel flag marks as fuel buyers, so the redraw_zero_road_fuel step redraws a flagged household that drew zero from the donor's distribution among households with positive road fuel, on the chain's predictors: a weighted regime-gated QRF draws the total, positive by construction, then the petrol share of it, at quantiles keyed on the household id; positive draws are kept. Then the level_road_fuel step, after the fuel flag has zeroed the households without a fuel car, scales petrol and diesel so their prior-weighted total equals ONS Consumer Trends household spending on COICOP 07.2.2 for calendar 2024 (the year of the DESNZ pump prices the donor uprating uses) less the donor's own other-fuels share of 07.2.2 (c72213), keeping the drawn mix. The diary's 07.2.2 has three lines (c72211 petrol, c72212 diesel and c72213, the other motor fuels and lubricants) and none for vehicle electricity. The LCFS diary records about a quarter less road fuel than ONS, and binding the OBR cars receipts had closed that gap by moving weight onto fuel-buying households; petrol and diesel therefore carry no committed support bound, like the other levelled columns. The totals that contain levelled columns are written back around them by the declared recompose_from_remainder step (microcosm#1113): each keeps its own chain draw less the chain's draws of the parts the stage re-levels, kept before any step touches them and floored at zero where the parts outgrow the total, and adds the levelled parts back, so housing_water_and_electricity_consumption is its draw less the drawn electricity and gas plus the levelled electricity and gas, and transport_consumption its draw less the drawn petrol, diesel and bus fares plus the levelled petrol and diesel and the priced bus fares. The chain draws each part after, and conditional on, its total, so the remainder is the chain's own split; a remainder drawn as a chain target of its own over-drew the vehicle-purchase tail of transport, 10 to 13 percent above the donor in-sample. The chain's domestic-energy target is the electricity and gas the stage derives from the diary's fuel, light and power (p537) by its labelled parts, from the LCF User Guide's derived-variable labels and P537 definition (microcosm#1164): each fuel's last account payment less its rebate (b489 electricity, b490 gas, read as the tab carries them; the stage refuses a donor where b489 equals b175 less b178, or b490 equals b170 less b173, to the penny for under 95 percent of that fuel's account payers, which pins the labels and the rebate's sign), its prepayment key or meter payment (b1751, b1701), its component of a combined utilities bill (b227 electricity, b226 gas) and of a combined key or meter payment (b2332, b2331), and the diary's second-dwelling account and slot-meter lines (c45112 and c45114, c45212 and c45214); what a combined payment leaves unsplit (the combined bill b231 less its rebate b174, and the combined key or meter payment b233, each less its parts) goes by the household's own electricity share where it pays for both fuels, and otherwise by the donor's mean share of the households that do, since a combined payment means the household pays for both; a donor with no such household fails. The diary's other fuels (central-heating oil b017 and c45312, bottled gas b018 and c45222, coal and coke c45411, wood and peat c45412, hot water, steam and ice c45511) are neither, and the donor_energy_split receipt records the split against p537: what reading refunds as zero adds, what the unclipped parts differ from p537 by, the weighted share of donors whose unclipped parts differ from their p537, and the account identity shares. The derivation it replaces read b226 as electricity by direct debit and b489 and b490 as prepayment payments, where the labels make them the gas component of a combined bill and the electricity and gas account payments less rebates. The liquid fuels (central-heating oil and paraffin with bottled gas, LPG with liquid) and the solid fuels (coal, coke, wood and peat) are drawn as liquid_fuel_consumption and solid_fuel_consumption, the inputs policyengine-uk 2.149.0 reads (pe-uk#2572; Mar\u00eda's ruling of 2026-10-22), after the eighteen spend targets so that every earlier draw is the chain's own, uprated to calendar-2024 prices as every diary spend column is; the housing total nets their draws and adds them back unchanged, so it always holds them, and hot water, steam and ice stays in its remainder. The receipt records the published ONS 04.5.3 and 04.5.4 spend beside each fuel's donor total at diary prices and the frame's draw (published_fuels). Before the hold, each COICOP division's drawn spend per household (a recomposed total's remainder, any other division's whole draw) is set against the donor's mean of the same spend (for housing and transport, the donor's total less the same parts, since the levelled parts keep their published levels and are no over-draw); a division above the divisions' shared ratio, measured once before any levelling, comes down to it (Mar\u00eda's rulings of 2026-10-23 and 2026-10-24, microcosm#1278; Vahid's review of microcosm#1383, item 9); the receipt records each division's ratio and factor and the shared ratio (division_levelling) and each recomposed total's levelling_factor. Each total is then held to the donor's realised maximum of that total (maximum_total: donor_support, the support every drawn column is clipped to; microcosm#1164), never below its parts, the excess coming out of its remainder: a remainder near the top of the diary's range plus levelled parts larger than the drawn ones would otherwise leave it. The two totals keep their committed support bounds, which the terminal support gate applies to the emitted frame; the recomposed_totals gate checks the declaration and the receipt, whose rows held at the maximum and weighted mass taken enter its identities. Every household spend column is at calendar-2024 prices as households paid them, the H5's year that policyengine-uk projects from and the calibration uprates to the calendar-2025 window (microcosm#1113): the diary columns by the CPI uprating to 2024, road fuel at ONS 07.2.2 for 2024, energy at DESNZ volume and QEP prices for 2024, and bus fares at each area's fiscal-year yield re-priced to 2024 by its fares index (the DfT local bus fares index by quarter for London and England outside London, Scotland's calendar-year index; Northern Ireland, which publishes no fares index, from its own yields of the two fiscal years 2024 overlaps, weighted three months and nine (microcosm#1207), in place of England's index, which carries the January 2025 rise in the English fare cap Northern Ireland did not have); the consumption_basis gate holds every level-setting step to that year. policyengine-uk applies the fiscal 2024-25 rules to model year 2024 (it samples each parameter at 30 April), so every levelled column sits about a quarter before the midpoint of the policy year it is taxed in; the calibration binds calendar-year facts as published and fiscal-year facts at the calendar window (Mar\u00eda's rule of 2026-09-22). The stage receipt also reports, for each of the twelve COICOP divisions, the prior-weighted frame total against ONS Consumer Trends for the same calendar year less the classes a household diary does not record (02.3 narcotics, 04.2 owner-occupiers' imputed rent and 12.6.1 FISIM), on ONS's domestic concept, and the twelve together against the national concept as well; it is report-only (microcosm#1113). The report-only litres audit compares each fuel's frame litres with HMRC's clearances of that fuel scaled by the cars share of its road use, from the vendored DESNZ sub-national road transport fuel consumption by vehicle type and fuel (PolicyEngine/chronicle#322); the OBR cars share of fuel duty receipts, uniform across fuels, stays beside the total. The liquid fuels hold bottled gas (b018, c45222), which COICOP puts under 04.5.2 (gas) and ONS's 04.5.3 leaves out, so the receipt also gives the donor's liquid fuels without it; neither heating-fuel column is levelled to ONS: the donor's diary totals are about twice ONS's, and the frame's draws reach neither those nor ONS's, so a costing on either needs levelling to ONS first (Vahid's review of microcosm#1383, item 8). After its spend targets and the two fuels the chain draws five shares the derive step computes on the donor from the diary lines (microcosm#1359): tobacco's share of the off-trade alcohol and tobacco that make up P602 (c22111, c22121 and c22131 over those three and the seven lines of alcohol brought home, c21111 to c21311; P602 also sums narcotics, c23111, which the end-user tab does not carry), on-trade alcohol's share of restaurants and hotels (the eight lines of drinks away from home, cb111c to cb111j, over P611, clipped at one because the tab stores P611 to one decimal place), gambling stakes' share of recreation (the seven games-of-chance stake lines P609 sums, c94311 to c94316 and c94319: pools, bingo, lotteries, bookmaker and tote betting with gaming machines, and the National Lottery; the winnings lines beside them sit in no total), the National Lottery's share of those stakes (scratchcards and draws, c94316 and c94319, over the seven) and the betting and gaming share of the rest (football pools, bingo, and bookmaker and tote betting with gaming machines, c94311, c94312 and c94314, over the other five; society lotteries, c94313, and the Irish Lottery, c94315, pay no UK gambling duty). A household's tobacco, off-trade alcohol, on-trade alcohol and gambling stakes are its shares of the totals it carries, and its National Lottery and betting and gaming stakes its shares of its stakes, so the parts sum to the totals and no total, the VAT base included, moves; appended after the twenty targets, the shares move none of their draws. The shares and the spending they give are scratch, on no table; the report-only excise_shares receipt records each share on the frame beside the donor. The declared level_excise_quantities step turns that spending into policyengine-uk's excise inputs (microcosm#1359), so alcohol, tobacco and gambling duty stop scoring zero. Each national quantity is a published FY2024-25 figure from the vendored excise_facts.json, and the step gives each household its part in proportion to the spending that buys it, at prior weights (one factor per input, the level_road_fuel scaling), so the frame's weighted total of each input is the published one; a household that buys one product of a kind buys all of that kind in the national mix. Alcohol: each product's litres are HMRC's clearances of beer, cider, wine, spirits and other fermented products (the Alcohol Bulletin, in litres of pure alcohol) over the engine's own strength for the product, which policyengine-uk multiplies back, shared by off- and on-trade alcohol spending together; beer and cider take their draught shares from the clearances under draught relief, alone or with small producer relief, over all of their clearances, and the other products, whose draught clearances HMRC does not publish, keep the engine's zero, as does sparkling cider, which the bulletin counts within cider. A pound buys the same volume in a pub as in a shop under this rule, which leans the volume, and so the duty, towards on-trade drinkers: against a published on-trade volume share of about 27 percent, a pound spent in a pub is given about 1.6 times the volume it buys and a pound spent in a shop about 0.78 times, and about 11 percent of the volume sits with other households on the 2024-25 diary. No on-trade volume share can be archived (MESAS is a NielsenIQ and Circana dashboard with no fixed file), so the spending rule stands, its lean documented (Mar\u00eda's ruling of 2026-10-23). Tobacco: cigarettes a week and grams a week of hand-rolling tobacco, cigars and other tobacco are HMRC's clearances (the Tobacco Bulletin) over the engine's 52 weeks, shared by tobacco spending; heated tobacco sits within other tobacco in the bulletin, so it is charged at the other-tobacco rate and its own input keeps the engine's zero. Gambling: each input is its duty's dutiable base, HMRC's cash receipts for the duty (the Betting and Gaming bulletin) or Machine Games Duty's declared liabilities for the band, over the engine's FY2024-25 rate (Gaming Duty over the engine's effective-rate proxy for it), so the engine charges back the published receipts. General Betting Duty's base, its receipts over the fixed-odds rate, is split over the land-based fixed-odds, remote horse-racing, remote other, exchange and horse-and-dog pool inputs by the Gambling Commission's gross gambling yield for Great Britain, remote fixed-odds betting by the horse-racing share of all remote betting yield, since the Commission publishes no betting activity by event; its horse racing is not only UK racing, so the remote UK horse-racing input is overstated and, from April 2027, when the engine charges other remote betting at 25 percent, too much of the base stays at 15 percent and the rise is understated; and its pool betting can hold pools on other events, such as football pools, which pay Pool Betting Duty. Spread betting, which the Commission does not regulate, has no published base and keeps the engine's zero. Lottery Duty's base is shared by the National Lottery stakes and every other gambling base by the betting and gaming stakes, since the diary cannot tell remote from land-based play or one betting product from another; the society and Irish lotteries carry none. Both keys are first brought to published participation by the declared top_up_gambling_participation step (microcosm#1359; Mar\u00eda's ruling of 2026-10-25). The diary records a stake for about a fifth of the households the Gambling Commission's Gambling Survey for Great Britain 2025 implies (PolicyEngine/chronicle#391), and under any steady rate of play a two-week diary sees at least half of the four-week players, so the gap is play the diary misses, not its window. Each adult's chance of playing in four weeks and in twelve months is GSGB's published rate for its sex and age band (tables B.1 and B.3), as the union of a key's activities (table B.9: the National Lottery's draws, scratchcards and online instant-win games; betting, bingo, casino games, fruit and slots, football pools, other online instant-win games and other gambling), taken as independent within the population that plays any of them (all gamblers, or those who play more than lottery draws). A household plays when any adult does, combined at theta: 1 - (1 - p_max) x prod(1 - p_other)^theta, where 0 is one player per household and 1 adults who play independently. Theta is fitted on the donor so that GSGB's rates, applied to the donors' own adults, give the diary's ratio of the two-adult to the one-adult household rate, in which under-recording cancels if it is the same for both: 0.9 for the National Lottery, whose couples mostly buy their own tickets, and 0.08 for betting and gaming, mostly one adult's. Within nine strata (one, two, or three or more adults, by the youngest adult's age band: 18 to 34, 35 to 54, 55 and over), households without a stake are added by the gas connection walk's weight-fitting rule, in an identity-keyed order drawn in proportion to a regularised donor propensity (on the chain's predictors and spend draws) times the household's published chance, first to the stratum's four-week share (regular players) and then on to its twelve-month share (occasional players); households the diary saw keep their stakes and count as regular. An added household's stake is a draw from the donor's positive stakes at a quantile keyed on its id, scaled so the added regular players' mean is the mean of the households the diary saw, and an occasional player's is a tenth of that, an assumption until GSGB publishes how often people play. The keys only re-share the bases: the stored spending stays the drawn one, so an added household's stakes are not in its recorded recreation spending. The gambling_participation gate recomputes the rates from the vendored rows and checks every stratum's shares. Known biases: the quantities are levelled to the published figures while spending and the diary's incidence stay at survey level (Mar\u00eda's ruling of 2026-10-23), so a household's alcohol or tobacco duty is one multiple of its own spending, the same for every household that carries it: at prior weights alcohol duty is about 0.41 times alcohol spending and tobacco duty about 2.2 times tobacco spending, since the diary records a fraction of what is bought; VAT on the same goods stays on the survey base. Tobacco duty also sits on fewer households than smoke: 8.2 percent of households carry it, against 11.9 percent of UK adults who smoked cigarettes in 2023 (ONS), while the share of households with a smoker is above the adult rate; the duty per carrying household is higher by the same factor. Part of the gap is the frame's: the chain's share draws come out zero more often than the donors' (10.3 percent of donors carry tobacco), mostly within households that carry the parent total. The gambling duties sit on the households the top-up brings to participation: 62.7 percent of households carry Lottery Duty and 29.8 percent the other gambling duties, against 10.7 and 2.0 percent on the diary's draws alone, and 47 percent of adults in Great Britain who gambled in the past four weeks of 2025 (27 percent once lottery-draw-only players are left out). The top-up's own biases: under-recording is taken as even across households, so the donor propensity carries the diary's income gradient (if the diary misses online play more, and online play rises with income, the top-up leans low in income); the activity unions take activities as independent within their population; theta is one per key and fits households of three or more adults less well; the occasional players' stake share is assumed; and GSGB covers adults in Great Britain in calendar 2025, so Northern Ireland's adults take its rates, against the FY2024-25 bases. Other tobacco (c22131) includes e-cigarette refills, so the tobacco inputs also follow vaping spending and a household that only vapes carries tobacco duty; Vaping Products Duty, from 1 October 2026, needs a key of its own. The draught shares are national constants, so a household that buys alcohol only in shops takes the same draught relief as one that drinks in pubs. The quantities are FY2024-25's, the excise year policyengine-uk charges in model year 2024 (its excise year runs from 6 April), and the engine holds them flat after it (PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk#2596). The step moves no spending column; the excise_quantities gate recomputes every level from the vendored rows.", + "notes": "Ports the incumbent LCFS consumption QRF, including NEED energy raking, with adjudicated weighted fits and an identity-keyed seed-0 fuel flag. The vehicle count is a numeric QRF predictor on both sides (LCFS a124 on the donor, the was_wealth draw of WAS vcarnr8 on the recipient, both clipped to 0-5), which retires the incumbent's WAS-to-LCFS has-fuel bridge (microcosm#890 A). The recipient fuel flag draws each of a household's vehicles as zero-emission at the battery-electric and fuel-cell share of the vendored DfT VEH1103 licensed-car stock (2024, Great Britain; plug-in hybrids count as fuel buyers), replacing the hand-copied NTS share (microcosm#890 E2): a household with vehicles buys fuel unless every one of them is zero-emission, so it is flagged at one minus that share raised to its vehicle count, and a one-vehicle household keeps the draw it had when the whole household was drawn at once (microcosm#1278; before, a household with several vehicles was all one or the other). The frame holds no fuel type, so the draw, keyed on the household identity, is what makes a vehicle-owning household a fuel buyer: it is random with respect to income and every other characteristic. With the redraw of microcosm#1113 every flagged household buys fuel, so this flag alone sets fuel incidence; who holds the zero-emission cars by income is a known residual. The household input uses_energy_prepayment_meter, which policyengine-uk reads for the July 2023 to March 2024 Energy Price Guarantee prepayment discount (PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk#2098, from 2.123.3), is drawn by the declared impute_prepayment_meter step (microcosm#1110): the donor prepays when it last put money on an electricity, gas or combined key or meter (b1751, b1701, b233, which the LCF asks only of prepayment-meter households) or its diary records a slot-meter payment (c45114, c45214), so electricity-only prepayment counts and a household with no meter payment, including one that did not answer, does not; a weighted regime-gated QRF on the chain's predictors fits that flag and each recipient draws it at uniforms keyed on its household id, which moves no other draw. The release exports it: policyengine-uk reads it from 2.123.3 and an older engine, Microcosm's locked one among them, ignores a column it does not know; the incumbent does not carry it until uk-data#539, so it is a reviewed extra column of the export surface. The frame flags about 3.0 million Great Britain households (10.5 %) at prior weights, against the around three million prepayment households the government counted when the discount began in July 2023 (a different reference period, households in both). Energy support clipping is exempt because NEED raking governs those columns. Bus fares are clipped to donor support before the pricing step (Mar\u00eda's rulings 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-17), which bounds the region no area prices (Wales keeps the chain's raw draw) while the priced regions move beyond donor support afterwards; for that reason the column carries no committed support bound for the terminal gate. Domestic energy is raked in kWh to the NEED 2024 shape at the DESNZ level and priced at the average prices paid (microcosm#890 F, chronicle#270), where both NEED rakes take their mean-kWh margins from the vendored NEED 2024 tables (England and Wales by income band, tenure, property type and region; Scotland by income band, tenure and property type with the all-dwellings mean as its region margin; Northern Ireland untouched), the declared price_domestic_energy step converts spend to kWh and back at each household's QEP price region through the committed crosswalk using the calendar-2024 average variable unit cost and fixed cost across payment methods, standard metering, including VAT (Northern Ireland gas at the UK average because QEP publishes no Northern Ireland gas row), a gas fixed cost only for connected households, the gas connection imposed on the recipient frame at the published share of each region (DESNZ subnational gas meters over electricity meters, 2024) by disconnecting gas-positive households in an identity-keyed uniform order, skipping a household whose weight would overshoot the published share (Northern Ireland has no subnational row and keeps the positive-gas rule), and, where the draw leaves a region below its share, by the declared connect_rule (microcosm#1164): two weighted fits on the chain's predictors give each zero-gas household the probability that a donor like it pays for gas (a gradient-boosted classifier of the donor's gas payers) and the gas such a donor pays (a regime-gated QRF of the payers' gas spend, at quantiles keyed on the household id), and the region's zero-gas households are connected in an identity-keyed order drawn in proportion to that probability, by the same weight-fitting walk, until the share is met. The labelled energy split leaves about 80 % of donors paying for gas against the about 85 % of homes DESNZ counts gas meters for (the derivation it replaced gave gas to 98 %), so without the connect leg nine of the eleven Great Britain regions fell short of their share, and after the four-margin NEED rake one factor per fuel scales the kWh so the prior-weighted frame total equals the DESNZ Energy Trends domestic consumption at actual temperature summed over the four quarters of calendar 2024; NEED gas means are per gas-metered household, so the gas kWh margins are raked over connected households only while electricity is raked over every household, and the energy_rake gate recomputes every NEED mean, the DESNZ level and the connection shares from the vendored rows. After the level, no household is left above the domestic meter definitions behind the DESNZ total (NEED Annex B: gas meters under 73,200 kWh a year, electricity meters under 50,000 kWh on profile classes 1 and 2; Mar\u00eda's ruling of 2026-10-12 on microcosm#1207's extreme energy values): the declared household_kwh_ceiling caps a household there, the households below it in the capped households' own NEED cells are re-raked to those cells' levelled means, and a proportional step restores the DESNZ total (microcosm#1164); the receipt counts the households capped and the share of the total they gave up, and the energy_rake gate checks both. Mobile homes have no NEED property-type row, so the rake takes them to the all-dwellings mean, the incumbent's translation; where every mobile home of a NEED geography draws a spend at or below the standing charge, that cell has no kWh for the rake to scale, and the declared zero_kwh_cells_at_need_mean starts it at its NEED mean before the first sweep (microcosm#1240). The receipt lists the cells it started, and the energy_rake gate fails on a started cell the stage does not declare and on any other cell with a zero mean. Both rakes band households on gross income, NEED's concept: the donor on LCFS p344p, cash income before tax, National Insurance, council tax and pension contributions, and the recipient on the same concept, its HBAI net income with the deductions policyengine-uk takes to reach it added back (council tax and domestic rates, income tax, National Insurance, student loan repayments, employee and personal pension contributions, maintenance and child payments, LVT), which the stage materializes for that band alone (microcosm#1164). Before it the recipient fell back to its HBAI net income, which put households in too low a band; the engine's household_gross_income would put them in too high a one, since it adds capital gains and the in-kind NHS, education and transport spending to cash income. The disconnection walk's seed-0 uniform order makes every group of households (dwelling type, income band, support channel) lose the same expected share of its drawn connected mass, so only the level of the drawn connection moves; the smallest-drawn-gas-first order it replaces piled the disconnections onto low-draw flats once the SPI support households drew gas from their own incomes, and NEED's Scottish property-type means then implied a level 2.6 % above the Scottish all-dwellings mean, a margin conflict the rake could not close. Bus fares are priced from journeys (microcosm#930), where the nts_bus_travel stage imputes each person's annual bus-in-London and other-local-bus trips and their concessionary eligibility, and the declared price_bus_journeys step sets bus_fare_spending as the sum over the household's non-eligible persons of trips times boardings per resident trip (the published BUS01 journeys over the published NTS0705a trips per resident times the ONS population) times the yield per fare-paying boarding (BUS05ai receipts over journeys less concessionary journeys), per area; bus-in-London trips take the London area's price for every resident, other-local-bus trips the price of the residence area (England outside London; Scotland and Northern Ireland from their own receipts and journeys with England's trip rate as the declared proxy); Wales is unpriced and keeps the raw draw. The chain still draws bus_fare_spending so later targets condition on the same raw draw; the emitted column is the priced value. The receipt records every factor, the frame-implied boardings beside the published ones and the frame's eligible trip share beside the publisher's concessionary boarding share, so the prior-weight fit of the bound receipts targets is read as a composition check, never a level the stage set; the #890 incidence draw and fare rake are retired. The 2024-25 diary (UKDS SN 9603, 2nd edition, whose household tab carries the annual weight as cal_weight_annual, the name weighta had; microcosm#1164) is moved to the base year by the declared uprate_donor_columns step (microcosm#890). Consumption columns and bus fares take the engine's CPI index from the April-to-March diary year, placed on the calendar-year index at three quarters of 2024 and one of 2025, back a quarter to calendar 2024 (microcosm#1113; the diary sits a quarter past it, so the factor is below one; the fare factor survives only where no fare cell levels the column, i.e. Wales). Income predictors take a factor of one: the diary year is the FRS 2024-25 year they are matched against. Petrol and diesel take the DESNZ pump-price times HMRC litres per head outturn from the vendored road_fuel_anchors.json, which sets only their donor distribution because the level step follows; the energy columns are exempt because the NEED 2024 shape at the DESNZ level and the QEP average prices paid set their level. The household adult and child counts (LCFS G018 and G019, the survey's age-18 split) predict on both sides; the recipient counts its members by age, not through the engine's is_adult and is_child flags, which policyengine-uk#1896 deprecates (uk-data#486, microcosm#1095). Road fuel incidence and level are set by two declared steps (microcosm#1113). The two-week diary leaves about a third of car-owning donors with no fuel purchase, which the chain reproduces among the households the fuel flag marks as fuel buyers, so the redraw_zero_road_fuel step redraws a flagged household that drew zero from the donor's distribution among households with positive road fuel, on the chain's predictors: a weighted regime-gated QRF draws the total, positive by construction, then the petrol share of it, at quantiles keyed on the household id; positive draws are kept. Then the level_road_fuel step, after the fuel flag has zeroed the households without a fuel car, scales petrol and diesel so their prior-weighted total equals ONS Consumer Trends household spending on COICOP 07.2.2 for calendar 2024 (the year of the DESNZ pump prices the donor uprating uses) less the donor's own other-fuels share of 07.2.2 (c72213), keeping the drawn mix. The diary's 07.2.2 has three lines (c72211 petrol, c72212 diesel and c72213, the other motor fuels and lubricants) and none for vehicle electricity. The LCFS diary records about a quarter less road fuel than ONS, and binding the OBR cars receipts had closed that gap by moving weight onto fuel-buying households; petrol and diesel therefore carry no committed support bound, like the other levelled columns. The totals that contain levelled columns are written back around them by the declared recompose_from_remainder step (microcosm#1113): each keeps its own chain draw less the chain's draws of the parts the stage re-levels, kept before any step touches them and floored at zero where the parts outgrow the total, and adds the levelled parts back, so housing_water_and_electricity_consumption is its draw less the drawn electricity and gas plus the levelled electricity and gas, and transport_consumption its draw less the drawn petrol, diesel and bus fares plus the levelled petrol and diesel and the priced bus fares. The chain draws each part after, and conditional on, its total, so the remainder is the chain's own split; a remainder drawn as a chain target of its own over-drew the vehicle-purchase tail of transport, 10 to 13 percent above the donor in-sample. The chain's domestic-energy target is the electricity and gas the stage derives from the diary's fuel, light and power (p537) by its labelled parts, from the LCF User Guide's derived-variable labels and P537 definition (microcosm#1164): each fuel's last account payment less its rebate (b489 electricity, b490 gas, read as the tab carries them; the stage refuses a donor where b489 equals b175 less b178, or b490 equals b170 less b173, to the penny for under 95 percent of that fuel's account payers, which pins the labels and the rebate's sign), its prepayment key or meter payment (b1751, b1701), its component of a combined utilities bill (b227 electricity, b226 gas) and of a combined key or meter payment (b2332, b2331), and the diary's second-dwelling account and slot-meter lines (c45112 and c45114, c45212 and c45214); what a combined payment leaves unsplit (the combined bill b231 less its rebate b174, and the combined key or meter payment b233, each less its parts) goes by the household's own electricity share where it pays for both fuels, and otherwise by the donor's mean share of the households that do, since a combined payment means the household pays for both; a donor with no such household fails. The diary's other fuels (central-heating oil b017 and c45312, bottled gas b018 and c45222, coal and coke c45411, wood and peat c45412, hot water, steam and ice c45511) are neither, and the donor_energy_split receipt records the split against p537: what reading refunds as zero adds, what the unclipped parts differ from p537 by, the weighted share of donors whose unclipped parts differ from their p537, and the account identity shares. The derivation it replaces read b226 as electricity by direct debit and b489 and b490 as prepayment payments, where the labels make them the gas component of a combined bill and the electricity and gas account payments less rebates. The liquid fuels (central-heating oil and paraffin with bottled gas, LPG with liquid) and the solid fuels (coal, coke, wood and peat) are drawn as liquid_fuel_consumption and solid_fuel_consumption, the inputs policyengine-uk 2.149.0 reads (pe-uk#2572; Mar\u00eda's ruling of 2026-10-22), after the eighteen spend targets so that every earlier draw is the chain's own, uprated to calendar-2024 prices as every diary spend column is; the housing total nets their draws and adds them back unchanged, so it always holds them, and hot water, steam and ice stays in its remainder. The receipt records the published ONS 04.5.3 and 04.5.4 spend beside each fuel's donor total at diary prices and the frame's draw (published_fuels). Before the hold, each COICOP division's drawn spend per household (a recomposed total's remainder, any other division's whole draw) is set against the donor's mean of the same spend (for housing and transport, the donor's total less the same parts, since the levelled parts keep their published levels and are no over-draw); a division above the divisions' shared ratio, measured once before any levelling, comes down to it (Mar\u00eda's rulings of 2026-10-23 and 2026-10-24, microcosm#1278; Vahid's review of microcosm#1383, item 9); the receipt records each division's ratio and factor and the shared ratio (division_levelling) and each recomposed total's levelling_factor. Each total is then held to the donor's realised maximum of that total (maximum_total: donor_support, the support every drawn column is clipped to; microcosm#1164), never below its parts, the excess coming out of its remainder: a remainder near the top of the diary's range plus levelled parts larger than the drawn ones would otherwise leave it. The two totals keep their committed support bounds, which the terminal support gate applies to the emitted frame; the recomposed_totals gate checks the declaration and the receipt, whose rows held at the maximum and weighted mass taken enter its identities. Every household spend column is at calendar-2024 prices as households paid them, the H5's year that policyengine-uk projects from and the calibration uprates to the calendar-2025 window (microcosm#1113): the diary columns by the CPI uprating to 2024, road fuel at ONS 07.2.2 for 2024, energy at DESNZ volume and QEP prices for 2024, and bus fares at each area's fiscal-year yield re-priced to 2024 by its fares index (the DfT local bus fares index by quarter for London and England outside London, Scotland's calendar-year index; Northern Ireland, which publishes no fares index, from its own yields of the two fiscal years 2024 overlaps, weighted three months and nine (microcosm#1207), in place of England's index, which carries the January 2025 rise in the English fare cap Northern Ireland did not have); the consumption_basis gate holds every level-setting step to that year. policyengine-uk applies the fiscal 2024-25 rules to model year 2024 (it samples each parameter at 30 April), so every levelled column sits about a quarter before the midpoint of the policy year it is taxed in; the calibration binds calendar-year facts as published and fiscal-year facts at the calendar window (Mar\u00eda's rule of 2026-09-22). The stage receipt also reports, for each of the twelve COICOP divisions, the prior-weighted frame total against ONS Consumer Trends for the same calendar year less the classes a household diary does not record (02.3 narcotics, 04.2 owner-occupiers' imputed rent and 12.6.1 FISIM), on ONS's domestic concept, and the twelve together against the national concept as well; it is report-only (microcosm#1113). The report-only litres audit compares each fuel's frame litres with HMRC's clearances of that fuel scaled by the cars share of its road use, from the vendored DESNZ sub-national road transport fuel consumption by vehicle type and fuel (PolicyEngine/chronicle#322); the OBR cars share of fuel duty receipts, uniform across fuels, stays beside the total. The liquid fuels hold bottled gas (b018, c45222), which COICOP puts under 04.5.2 (gas) and ONS's 04.5.3 leaves out, so the receipt also gives the donor's liquid fuels without it; neither heating-fuel column is levelled to ONS: the donor's diary totals are about twice ONS's, and the frame's draws reach neither those nor ONS's, so a costing on either needs levelling to ONS first (Vahid's review of microcosm#1383, item 8). After its spend targets and the two fuels the chain draws five shares the derive step computes on the donor from the diary lines (microcosm#1359): tobacco's share of the off-trade alcohol and tobacco that make up P602 (c22111, c22121 and c22131 over those three and the seven lines of alcohol brought home, c21111 to c21311; P602 also sums narcotics, c23111, which the end-user tab does not carry), on-trade alcohol's share of restaurants and hotels (the eight lines of drinks away from home, cb111c to cb111j, over P611, clipped at one because the tab stores P611 to one decimal place), gambling stakes' share of recreation (the seven games-of-chance stake lines P609 sums, c94311 to c94316 and c94319: pools, bingo, lotteries, bookmaker and tote betting with gaming machines, and the National Lottery; the winnings lines beside them sit in no total), the National Lottery's share of those stakes (scratchcards and draws, c94316 and c94319, over the seven) and the betting and gaming share of the rest (football pools, bingo, and bookmaker and tote betting with gaming machines, c94311, c94312 and c94314, over the other five; society lotteries, c94313, and the Irish Lottery, c94315, pay no UK gambling duty). A household's tobacco, off-trade alcohol, on-trade alcohol and gambling stakes are its shares of the totals it carries, and its National Lottery and betting and gaming stakes its shares of its stakes, so the parts sum to the totals and no total, the VAT base included, moves; appended after the twenty targets, the shares move none of their draws. The shares and the spending they give are scratch, on no table; the report-only excise_shares receipt records each share on the frame beside the donor. The declared level_excise_quantities step turns that spending into policyengine-uk's excise inputs (microcosm#1359), so alcohol, tobacco and gambling duty stop scoring zero. Each national quantity is a published FY2024-25 figure from the vendored excise_facts.json, and the step gives each household its part in proportion to the spending that buys it, at prior weights (one factor per input, the level_road_fuel scaling), so the frame's weighted total of each input is the published one; a household that buys one product of a kind buys all of that kind in the national mix. Alcohol: each product's litres are HMRC's clearances of beer, cider, wine, spirits and other fermented products (the Alcohol Bulletin, in litres of pure alcohol) over the engine's own strength for the product, which policyengine-uk multiplies back, shared by off- and on-trade alcohol spending together; beer and cider take their draught shares from the clearances under draught relief, alone or with small producer relief, over all of their clearances, and the other products, whose draught clearances HMRC does not publish, keep the engine's zero, as does sparkling cider, which the bulletin counts within cider. A pound buys the same volume in a pub as in a shop under this rule, which leans the volume, and so the duty, towards on-trade drinkers: against a published on-trade volume share of about 27 percent, a pound spent in a pub is given about 1.6 times the volume it buys and a pound spent in a shop about 0.78 times, and about 11 percent of the volume sits with other households on the 2024-25 diary. No on-trade volume share can be archived (MESAS is a NielsenIQ and Circana dashboard with no fixed file), so the spending rule stands, its lean documented (Mar\u00eda's ruling of 2026-10-23). Tobacco: cigarettes a week and grams a week of hand-rolling tobacco, cigars and other tobacco are HMRC's clearances (the Tobacco Bulletin) over the engine's 52 weeks, shared by tobacco spending; heated tobacco sits within other tobacco in the bulletin, so it is charged at the other-tobacco rate and its own input keeps the engine's zero. Gambling: each input is its duty's dutiable base, HMRC's cash receipts for the duty (the Betting and Gaming bulletin) or Machine Games Duty's declared liabilities for the band, over the engine's FY2024-25 rate (Gaming Duty over the engine's effective-rate proxy for it), so the engine charges back the published receipts. General Betting Duty's base, its receipts over the fixed-odds rate, is split over the land-based fixed-odds, remote horse-racing, remote other, exchange and horse-and-dog pool inputs by the Gambling Commission's gross gambling yield for Great Britain, remote fixed-odds betting by the horse-racing share of all remote betting yield, since the Commission publishes no betting activity by event; its horse racing is not only UK racing, so the remote UK horse-racing input is overstated and, from April 2027, when the engine charges other remote betting at 25 percent, too much of the base stays at 15 percent and the rise is understated; and its pool betting can hold pools on other events, such as football pools, which pay Pool Betting Duty. Spread betting, which the Commission does not regulate, has no published base and keeps the engine's zero. Lottery Duty's base is shared by the National Lottery stakes and every other gambling base by the betting and gaming stakes, since the diary cannot tell remote from land-based play or one betting product from another; the society and Irish lotteries carry none. Both keys are first brought to published participation by the declared top_up_gambling_participation step (microcosm#1359; Mar\u00eda's ruling of 2026-10-25). The diary records a stake for about a fifth of the households the Gambling Commission's Gambling Survey for Great Britain 2025 implies (PolicyEngine/chronicle#391), and under any steady rate of play a two-week diary sees at least half of the four-week players, so the gap is play the diary misses, not its window. Each adult's chance of playing in four weeks and in twelve months is GSGB's published rate for its sex and age band (tables B.1 and B.3), as the union of a key's activities (table B.9: the National Lottery's draws, scratchcards and online instant-win games; betting, bingo, casino games, fruit and slots, football pools, other online instant-win games and other gambling), taken as independent within the population that plays any of them (all gamblers, or those who play more than lottery draws). A household plays when any adult does, combined at theta: 1 - (1 - p_max) x prod(1 - p_other)^theta, where 0 is one player per household and 1 adults who play independently. Theta is fitted on the donor so that GSGB's rates, applied to the donors' own adults, give the diary's ratio of the two-adult to the one-adult household rate, in which under-recording cancels if it is the same for both: 0.9 for the National Lottery, whose couples mostly buy their own tickets, and 0.08 for betting and gaming, mostly one adult's. Within nine strata (one, two, or three or more adults, by the youngest adult's age band: 18 to 34, 35 to 54, 55 and over), households without a stake are added by the gas connection walk's weight-fitting rule, in an identity-keyed order drawn in proportion to a regularised donor propensity (on the chain's predictors and spend draws, with recreation net of its gambling stakes, so that a recorded stake does not predict itself) times the household's published chance, first to the stratum's four-week share (regular players) and then on to its twelve-month share (occasional players); households the diary saw keep their stakes and count as regular. An added household's stake is a draw from the donor's positive stakes at a quantile keyed on its id, scaled so the added regular players' mean is the mean of the households the diary saw, and an occasional player's is a tenth of that. Both are assumptions: a two-week diary is more likely to catch frequent players, so the households it saw are probably the heavier players and equal means spread the base more evenly than play probably is; the tenth stands until GSGB publishes how often people play. The keys only re-share the bases: the stored spending stays the drawn one, so an added household's stakes are not in its recorded recreation spending. The gambling_participation gate recomputes the rates from the vendored rows, checks every stratum's shares, and holds each key's stake scale within 0.5 to 2, so a broken stake draw that the scaling would hide fails it. Known biases: the quantities are levelled to the published figures while spending and the diary's incidence stay at survey level (Mar\u00eda's ruling of 2026-10-23), so a household's alcohol or tobacco duty is one multiple of its own spending, the same for every household that carries it: at prior weights alcohol duty is about 0.41 times alcohol spending and tobacco duty about 2.2 times tobacco spending, since the diary records a fraction of what is bought; VAT on the same goods stays on the survey base. Tobacco duty also sits on fewer households than smoke: 8.2 percent of households carry it, against 11.9 percent of UK adults who smoked cigarettes in 2023 (ONS), while the share of households with a smoker is above the adult rate; the duty per carrying household is higher by the same factor. Part of the gap is the frame's: the chain's share draws come out zero more often than the donors' (10.3 percent of donors carry tobacco), mostly within households that carry the parent total. The gambling duties sit on the households the top-up brings to participation: 62.7 percent of households carry Lottery Duty and 29.8 percent the other gambling duties, against 10.7 and 2.0 percent on the diary's draws alone, and 47 percent of adults in Great Britain who gambled in the past four weeks of 2025 (27 percent once lottery-draw-only players are left out). The top-up's own biases: GSGB is taken as the level, though the Gambling Commission's guidance on its statistics reports that an invitation that mentions gambling raised participation estimates, and that its experiment could not conclude which estimates are the more accurate; under-recording is taken as even across households, so the donor propensity carries the diary's gradient by income, tenure, region and spending; the activity unions take activities as independent within their population, which GSGB's table B.13 rules out among players (45 percent of four-week gamblers took part in one activity, against 26 percent under independence), but a model in which each adult's activities share an intensity, which comes within 2.5 points of that share in every age band, moves neither key's union by more than 9 percent in any age band, nor the share of households carrying either key by more than 0.1 points; theta is one per key, fits households of three or more adults less well, and takes the share carrying betting and gaming from 28.5 percent at 0 to 41.2 percent at 1; the stake assumptions above; and GSGB covers adults in Great Britain in calendar 2025, so Northern Ireland's adults take its rates, against the FY2024-25 bases. On the real spine at prior weights, the share of households carrying the National Lottery rises from 51.5 percent in the bottom equivalised-income decile to 67.3 percent in the top, and betting and gaming from 26.8 to 34.8 percent, whose top decile holds 25.3 percent of the base; on the diary's draws alone betting and gaming is almost flat (1.9 to 2.1 percent, 18.9 percent of the base in the top decile). Ordered by the published chance alone, betting and gaming would run from 29.2 to 29.8 percent and the Lottery from 57.0 to 67.9 percent with GSGB's age mix, but neither key's regional pattern would follow GSGB's. With the propensity, the Lottery's does (a correlation of 0.67 across Great Britain's eleven regions, London lowest, as in GSGB), and betting and gaming's barely (0.11). Other tobacco (c22131) includes e-cigarette refills, so the tobacco inputs also follow vaping spending and a household that only vapes carries tobacco duty; Vaping Products Duty, from 1 October 2026, needs a key of its own. The draught shares are national constants, so a household that buys alcohol only in shops takes the same draught relief as one that drinks in pubs. The quantities are FY2024-25's, the excise year policyengine-uk charges in model year 2024 (its excise year runs from 6 April), and the engine holds them flat after it (PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk#2596). 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UK FRS and donor fixture/source bundle.","name":"frs"}]} From 38cc5e766aeac488e1102a5e2028f2931890fae3 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 26 Oct 2026 20:41:39 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 08/12] Refuse an engine that misreads is_apprentice; hold its relief below NIC-NS1 (#1373) Vahid's review at aa06c5738: - M1: policyengine-uk before 2.162.7 gave the apprentice minimum wage to every flagged person, so a flagged 21 to 24-year-old lost the adult rate, which moves the Tax-Free Childcare, extended childcare and Childcare Offer for Wales income tests (policyengine-uk#2683). The stage now refuses an installed engine without qualifies_for_apprentice_minimum_wage and is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship, or without the s.9B apprentice upper secondary threshold. The build leaves the first-year input at its default (False), so the flagged keep their age-related minimum wage. - S1: the receipt records the relief the flags imply at the installed engine's own Class 1 schedule for the build year, with pay standing in for NIC earnings, and uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices holds it at or below GBP 370m, HMRC's NIC - NS1 for 2024-25, which covers every apprentice under 25. - S2: the module docstring and the operation's eligibility note say what the flag does to minimum_wage, with the pointer to #2683. The two engine checks share one tax-benefit system. The pins move in the pass that follows the re-lock. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json | 5 +- .../src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json | 4 +- .../src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml | 4 +- .../build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py | 1 + .../build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py | 128 ++++++++++++++++-- .../build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py | 24 +++- .../engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py | 112 ++++++++++++++- .../engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py | 3 + 8 files changed, 262 insertions(+), 19 deletions(-) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json index 71d1762fea..eeabe185fb 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json @@ -911,9 +911,10 @@ "stage": "frs_person_draws", "check": "apprentice_draw", "rate_key": "apprentice_stock_19_to_24", - "maximum_relative_realization_deviation": 0.05 + "maximum_relative_realization_deviation": 0.05, + "maximum_implied_relief": 370000000.0 }, - "notes": "Stage-time gate over the is_apprentice receipt (microcosm#1373). The draw's target is the contract's apprentice_stock_19_to_24 for the build year (DfE's England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year, participation less starts, per head aged 19 to 24) times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the stage's weights, and eligible employees aged 21 to 24 are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it, so the stage misses it by at most half one person's weight. The gate checks that the receipt carries the contract's rate under the declared key, that its target is that rate times its population, that its support is printed in bands, and, unless the eligible employees weigh no more than the target (cap-bound, every one of them flagged), that the flagged weight lies within maximum_relative_realization_deviation (5 percent) of the target. That tolerance is a declared rule set above the half-weight bound, not a fact. A flagged weight on fewer than ten source households fails: the receipt withholds it under the UKDS disclosure rule, and a rate realized on so few records would not describe the population. The entry is a population_fact_check, so the synthetic smoke build over the H2 fixture records its outcome without blocking; every licensed build blocks on it." + "notes": "Stage-time gate over the is_apprentice receipt (microcosm#1373). The draw's target is the contract's apprentice_stock_19_to_24 for the build year (DfE's England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year, participation less starts, per head aged 19 to 24) times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the stage's weights, and eligible employees aged 21 to 24 are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it, so the stage misses it by at most half one person's weight. The gate checks that the receipt carries the contract's rate under the declared key, that its target is that rate times its population, that its support is printed in bands, and, unless the eligible employees weigh no more than the target (cap-bound, every one of them flagged), that the flagged weight lies within maximum_relative_realization_deviation (5 percent) of the target. That tolerance is a declared rule set above the half-weight bound, not a fact. A flagged weight on fewer than ten source households fails: the receipt withholds it under the UKDS disclosure rule, and a rate realized on so few records would not describe the population. The receipt also records the relief the flags imply at the installed engine's own Class 1 schedule for the build year (on a 2024 frame, 13.8 percent between GBP 9,100 and GBP 50,270), with each flagged employee's pay standing in for NIC earnings, and the gate holds it at or below maximum_implied_relief: GBP 370m, HMRC's NIC - NS1 for 2024-25 (tax relief statistics, January 2026, Table 2), which covers every apprentice under 25, under-21s included, since the apprentice relief takes precedence (Vahid's review of microcosm#1373, S1). It is a ceiling, not a target. The stage refuses an installed engine without the s.9B threshold or without policyengine-uk#2683's split of the apprentice minimum wage from the flag. The entry is a population_fact_check, so the synthetic smoke build over the H2 fixture records its outcome without blocking; every licensed build blocks on it." }, { "id": "uk_release_input_coverage", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json index a3830b092a..3f72dad2fc 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json @@ -1186,8 +1186,8 @@ "draw": "is_apprentice", "rate_key": "apprentice_stock_19_to_24", "assignment_unit": "person", - "eligibility": "employees (employment_status FT_EMPLOYED or PT_EMPLOYED, from frs_employment) aged 21 to 24: SSCBA 1992 s.9A already zero-rates every earner under 21 and s.9B ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so no other age changes employer NICs, and leaving them False keeps is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged", - "rate_derivation": "the contract's apprentice_stock_19_to_24 is DfE's England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24, a point-in-time count taken as uniform across those ages and UK-wide; the target is r times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the frame's household weights, and eligible employees are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it (uc_take_up's rule), or all of them when they weigh no more than it; the receipt records the target, the flagged weight and the support bands, and uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices gates them", + "eligibility": "employees (employment_status FT_EMPLOYED or PT_EMPLOYED, from frs_employment) aged 21 to 24: SSCBA 1992 s.9A already zero-rates every earner under 21 and s.9B ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so no other age changes employer NICs, and leaving them False keeps is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged; the flagged keep their age-related minimum_wage too, because policyengine-uk 2.162.7 (policyengine-uk#2683) gives the apprentice rate only under 19 or with is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship, which the build leaves at its default (False), and the stage refuses an engine without that split or the s.9B threshold", + "rate_derivation": "the contract's apprentice_stock_19_to_24 is DfE's England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24, a point-in-time count taken as uniform across those ages and UK-wide; the target is r times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the frame's household weights, and eligible employees are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it (uc_take_up's rule), or all of them when they weigh no more than it; the receipt records the target, the flagged weight, the support bands and the relief the flags imply at the installed engine's Class 1 schedule, and uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices gates them, the relief at or below HMRC's NIC - NS1", "seed": 0 } ], diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml index 4cff118afe..301503972d 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml @@ -1067,8 +1067,8 @@ stages: draw: is_apprentice rate_key: apprentice_stock_19_to_24 assignment_unit: person - eligibility: 'employees (employment_status FT_EMPLOYED or PT_EMPLOYED, from frs_employment) aged 21 to 24: SSCBA 1992 s.9A already zero-rates every earner under 21 and s.9B ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so no other age changes employer NICs, and leaving them False keeps is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged' - rate_derivation: 'the contract''s apprentice_stock_19_to_24 is DfE''s England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24, a point-in-time count taken as uniform across those ages and UK-wide; the target is r times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the frame''s household weights, and eligible employees are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it (uc_take_up''s rule), or all of them when they weigh no more than it; the receipt records the target, the flagged weight and the support bands, and uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices gates them' + eligibility: 'employees (employment_status FT_EMPLOYED or PT_EMPLOYED, from frs_employment) aged 21 to 24: SSCBA 1992 s.9A already zero-rates every earner under 21 and s.9B ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so no other age changes employer NICs, and leaving them False keeps is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged; the flagged keep their age-related minimum_wage too, because policyengine-uk 2.162.7 (policyengine-uk#2683) gives the apprentice rate only under 19 or with is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship, which the build leaves at its default (False), and the stage refuses an engine without that split or the s.9B threshold' + rate_derivation: 'the contract''s apprentice_stock_19_to_24 is DfE''s England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24, a point-in-time count taken as uniform across those ages and UK-wide; the target is r times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the frame''s household weights, and eligible employees are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it (uc_take_up''s rule), or all of them when they weigh no more than it; the receipt records the target, the flagged weight, the support bands and the relief the flags imply at the installed engine''s Class 1 schedule, and uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices gates them, the relief at or below HMRC''s NIC - NS1' seed: 0 outputs: - would_claim_marriage_allowance diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py index 81fa2b6318..2bb1b2ac51 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py @@ -2269,6 +2269,7 @@ def _ledger_compile_parity_required_artifacts( # The apprentice draw (microcosm#1373). "rate_key", "maximum_relative_realization_deviation", + "maximum_implied_relief", } ), artifact_keys=frozenset({"stage_evidence"}), diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py index ca63d063f3..bbfa4c1345 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py @@ -13,10 +13,22 @@ head aged 19 to 24, a point-in-time count rather than the in-year one (microcosm#1373). Eligible employees are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest the target, and the -stage's receipt records how near it came. Ages under 21 and from 25 keep the -engine default (False), which leaves ``is_in_non_advanced_education`` (child -benefit and Universal Credit qualifying young person status), ``minimum_wage``, -Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged for them. +stage's receipt records how near it came, and the employer NICs relief the +flags imply at the engine's own Class 1 parameters. Ages under 21 and from 25 +keep the engine default (False), which leaves ``is_in_non_advanced_education`` +(child benefit and Universal Credit qualifying young person status), +``minimum_wage``, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged for +them. + +The flag is read twice in policyengine-uk: by the s.9B threshold (from 2.160.0, +policyengine-uk#2505) and by the apprentice minimum wage. Before 2.162.7 the +apprentice rate applied to every flagged person, so a flagged 21 to 24-year-old +lost the adult minimum wage, which moves the Tax-Free Childcare, extended +childcare and Childcare Offer for Wales income tests. From 2.162.7 +(policyengine-uk#2683) the rate applies only under 19 or with +``is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship``, which the build leaves at its default +(False), so the flagged keep their age-related minimum wage. The stage refuses +an installed engine without both readings. """ from __future__ import annotations @@ -65,6 +77,16 @@ FRS_EMPSTATI_EMPLOYMENT_STATUS.values() ): raise RuntimeError("apprentice employee statuses must be FRS EMPSTATI statuses.") +# The engine readings is_apprentice needs: the s.9B threshold the flag exists +# for, and the minimum wage's split from it (policyengine-uk#2683). +APPRENTICE_ENGINE_VARIABLES = ( + "qualifies_for_apprentice_minimum_wage", + "is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship", +) +APPRENTICE_ENGINE_PARAMETER = ( + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds." + "apprentice_upper_secondary_threshold" +) UK_PERSON_DRAW_DECLARED_SEEDS = { output: 0 for output in FRS_PERSON_DRAW_OUTPUT_COLUMNS @@ -117,7 +139,9 @@ def add_frs_person_draws_with_receipt( "frs_person_draws assign_period_constant requires the frame time " f"period {period!r} to equal contract build_year {contract.build_year}." ) - _require_tax_free_childcare_routed_share_variable() + system = _installed_uk_system() + _require_tax_free_childcare_routed_share_variable(system) + schedule = apprentice_relief_schedule(system, period) person = frame.table("person").copy() if APPRENTICE_OUTPUT in person.columns: raise ValueError( @@ -125,7 +149,10 @@ def add_frs_person_draws_with_receipt( "only writer." ) derived, receipt = derive_frs_person_draws_with_receipt( - person, contract=contract, person_weights=uk_person_household_weights(frame) + person, + contract=contract, + person_weights=uk_person_household_weights(frame), + relief_schedule=schedule, ) for column in FRS_PERSON_DRAW_OUTPUT_COLUMNS: person[column] = derived[column].to_numpy() @@ -147,6 +174,7 @@ def derive_frs_person_draws( *, contract: UKTakeUpContract, person_weights: np.ndarray, + relief_schedule: Mapping[str, float] | None = None, ) -> pd.DataFrame: """Return the stage's person draws. @@ -155,7 +183,10 @@ def derive_frs_person_draws( """ return derive_frs_person_draws_with_receipt( - person, contract=contract, person_weights=person_weights + person, + contract=contract, + person_weights=person_weights, + relief_schedule=relief_schedule, )[0] @@ -164,6 +195,7 @@ def derive_frs_person_draws_with_receipt( *, contract: UKTakeUpContract, person_weights: np.ndarray, + relief_schedule: Mapping[str, float] | None = None, ) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, Mapping[str, object]]: """The stage's person draws and the receipt of its ``is_apprentice`` draw.""" @@ -195,6 +227,7 @@ def derive_frs_person_draws_with_receipt( person, rate=contract.rate(APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY, contract.build_year), person_weights=person_weights, + relief_schedule=relief_schedule, ) values[APPRENTICE_OUTPUT] = apprentices.flags return values, {"build_year": contract.build_year, **apprentices.receipt} @@ -213,6 +246,7 @@ def derive_is_apprentice( *, rate: float, person_weights: np.ndarray | None = None, + relief_schedule: Mapping[str, float] | None = None, ) -> UKApprenticeDraw: """Draw ``is_apprentice`` for employees aged 21 to 24. @@ -223,6 +257,12 @@ def derive_is_apprentice( within one person's weight rather than only in expectation. When the eligible weight falls short of the target every eligible employee is flagged and the receipt says the draw was cap-bound. + + Given a ``relief_schedule`` (the engine's Class 1 rate and its secondary + and apprentice upper secondary thresholds, annual), the receipt also + records the relief the flags imply: the rate on each flagged employee's + pay between the two thresholds, weighted. Pay stands in for NIC earnings, + so it is an estimate of the s.9B relief, not the engine's figure. """ if "employment_status" not in person.columns: @@ -285,8 +325,25 @@ def derive_is_apprentice( receipt.update(population_mass="<10", target="<10", realization_deviation="<10") if 0 < eligible_support < 10: receipt["eligible_mass"] = "<10" + if relief_schedule is not None and "employment_income" in person.columns: + pay = pd.to_numeric(person["employment_income"], errors="coerce") + relieved = np.clip( + np.minimum( + pay.fillna(0.0).to_numpy(dtype=float), + float(relief_schedule["apprentice_upper_secondary_threshold"]), + ) + - float(relief_schedule["secondary_threshold"]), + 0.0, + None, + ) + receipt["relief_schedule"] = dict(relief_schedule) + receipt["implied_relief"] = float( + relief_schedule["rate"] * (weights[flags] * relieved[flags]).sum() + ) if 0 < flagged_support < 10: receipt.update(realized_mass="<10", realization_deviation="<10") + if "implied_relief" in receipt: + receipt["implied_relief"] = "<10" return UKApprenticeDraw(flags=flags, receipt=receipt) @@ -331,20 +388,71 @@ def uk_person_household_weights(frame: Frame) -> np.ndarray: ) -def _require_tax_free_childcare_routed_share_variable() -> None: - """Fail before export when an installed UK engine cannot consume the input.""" +def _installed_uk_system(): + """The installed UK engine's tax-benefit system, or None without one.""" try: import policyengine_uk except ImportError: + return None + return policyengine_uk.CountryTaxBenefitSystem() + + +def _require_tax_free_childcare_routed_share_variable(system=None) -> None: + """Fail before export when an installed UK engine cannot consume the input.""" + + if system is None: return variable = "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" - if variable not in policyengine_uk.CountryTaxBenefitSystem().variables: + if variable not in system.variables: raise ValueError( f"Required variable {variable!r} is not defined in policyengine-uk." ) +def apprentice_relief_schedule(system, period) -> dict[str, float | int] | None: + """The engine's Class 1 schedule for the flags' relief, or None without one. + + Refuses an engine that would misread ``is_apprentice``: one without the + s.9B threshold (policyengine-uk before 2.160.0) or without the minimum + wage's split from the flag (before 2.162.7, policyengine-uk#2683), which + would give every flagged employee the apprentice minimum wage. The values + are the ones the engine charges in the stage's year, at its start, as a + year's ``parameters(period)`` reads them; weekly thresholds are annualized + over 52 weeks as ``secondary_class_1_threshold`` does. + """ + + if system is None: + return None + missing = [ + name for name in APPRENTICE_ENGINE_VARIABLES if name not in system.variables + ] + if missing: + raise ValueError( + f"{APPRENTICE_OUTPUT} needs policyengine-uk 2.162.7 or later, which " + "gives the apprentice minimum wage only under 19 or in the first year " + f"(policyengine-uk#2683); the installed engine lacks {missing}." + ) + year = int(str(period).split("-", maxsplit=1)[0]) + parameters = system.parameters(f"{year}-01-01") + class_1 = parameters.gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1 + if not hasattr(class_1.thresholds, "apprentice_upper_secondary_threshold"): + raise ValueError( + f"{APPRENTICE_OUTPUT} needs the installed engine's " + f"{APPRENTICE_ENGINE_PARAMETER} (policyengine-uk 2.160.0 or later)." + ) + secondary = class_1.employer_scale.components[1] + return { + "period": year, + "rate": float(secondary.rate), + "secondary_threshold": float(secondary.threshold) * 52.0, + "apprentice_upper_secondary_threshold": float( + class_1.thresholds.apprentice_upper_secondary_threshold + ) + * 52.0, + } + + def _draws(ids: np.ndarray, output: str) -> np.ndarray: return stable_identity_uniforms( ids, seed=UK_PERSON_DRAW_DECLARED_SEEDS[output], salt=output diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py index 6f3d1fd98c..03b1eb29b0 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py @@ -4457,7 +4457,10 @@ def _apprentice_draw_gate( flagged), the flagged weight lies within ``maximum_relative_realization_deviation`` of the target. A flagged weight on fewer than ten source households fails: the receipt withholds it, and a - rate realized on so few records would not describe the population. + rate realized on so few records would not describe the population. The + relief the flags imply at the engine's own Class 1 schedule must stay at or + below ``maximum_implied_relief``, HMRC's apprentice relief for every + apprentice under 25 (Vahid's review of microcosm#1373, S1). """ from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.take_up_contract import load_uk_take_up_contract @@ -4474,6 +4477,9 @@ def _apprentice_draw_gate( raise ValueError( f"{stage}: maximum_relative_realization_deviation must be >= 0." ) + ceiling = _finite_number( + parameters["maximum_implied_relief"], label=f"{stage}.maximum_implied_relief" + ) rate_key = str(parameters["rate_key"]) failures: list[str] = [] if receipt.get("rate_key") != rate_key: @@ -4567,12 +4573,28 @@ def _apprentice_draw_gate( f"{stage}: the flagged weight is {relative:.4f} of the target " f"away from it, above {tolerance}." ) + relief = receipt.get("implied_relief") + implied: float | None = None + if relief is None: + failures.append( + f"{stage}: the receipt records no implied relief, so the draw cannot be " + "held below HMRC's apprentice relief." + ) + elif relief != "<10": + implied = _finite_number(relief, label=f"{stage}.implied_relief") + if implied > ceiling: + failures.append( + f"{stage}: the flags imply {implied:,.0f} of relief, above the " + f"{ceiling:,.0f} ceiling." + ) details = { "rate_key": rate_key, "rate": rate, "target": target, "cap_bound": cap_bound, "relative_realization_deviation": relative, + "implied_relief": implied, + "maximum_implied_relief": ceiling, } if failures: return _fail(stage, check, failures, details) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py index 5376394806..7449568067 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py @@ -2,15 +2,19 @@ from __future__ import annotations +from types import SimpleNamespace + import numpy as np import pandas as pd import pytest from microcosm.build.stochastic_assignment import stable_identity_uniforms +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime import frs_person_draws from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_person_draws import ( APPRENTICE_OUTPUT, APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY, UKFRSPersonDrawsStageTransform, + apprentice_relief_schedule, derive_is_apprentice, ) from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.national_frame import uk_national_frame @@ -216,7 +220,14 @@ def _two_household_frame(**extra_person_columns): ) -def test_stage_realizes_the_target_at_the_frame_household_weights() -> None: +@pytest.fixture +def no_engine(monkeypatch): + """Run the stage as the engine-free job does, whatever is installed.""" + + monkeypatch.setattr(frs_person_draws, "_installed_uk_system", lambda: None) + + +def test_stage_realizes_the_target_at_the_frame_household_weights(no_engine) -> None: stage = UKFRSPersonDrawsStageTransform(contract=_Contract(), stage=None) stored = stage(_two_household_frame()).table("person") @@ -244,8 +255,105 @@ def test_stage_has_no_receipt_before_it_runs() -> None: stage.checkpoint_metadata() -def test_stage_refuses_a_stored_flag() -> None: +def test_stage_refuses_a_stored_flag(no_engine) -> None: frame = _two_household_frame(is_apprentice=False) with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="already stored"): UKFRSPersonDrawsStageTransform(contract=_Contract(), stage=None)(frame) + + +_SCHEDULE = { + "period": 2024, + "rate": 0.138, + "secondary_threshold": 9_100.0, + "apprentice_upper_secondary_threshold": 50_270.0, +} + + +def test_receipt_records_the_relief_the_flags_imply() -> None: + pay = np.array([5_000.0, 20_000.0, 60_000.0] * 4) + person = _small([22] * 12, ["FT_EMPLOYED"] * 12).assign(employment_income=pay) + + # Every employee is flagged: a rate of one a head is cap-bound. + draw = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=1.0, relief_schedule=_SCHEDULE) + + assert draw.flags.all() + relieved = np.clip(np.minimum(pay, 50_270.0) - 9_100.0, 0.0, None) + assert draw.receipt["implied_relief"] == pytest.approx(0.138 * relieved.sum()) + assert draw.receipt["relief_schedule"] == _SCHEDULE + + +def test_receipt_withholds_a_relief_on_fewer_than_ten_households() -> None: + person = _small([22] * 5, ["FT_EMPLOYED"] * 5).assign(employment_income=20_000.0) + + draw = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=1.0, relief_schedule=_SCHEDULE) + + assert draw.receipt["implied_relief"] == "<10" + + +def test_receipt_records_no_relief_without_a_schedule() -> None: + person = _small([22] * 12, ["FT_EMPLOYED"] * 12).assign(employment_income=1.0) + + assert "implied_relief" not in derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.5).receipt + + +def _system(*, variables, apprentice_threshold=966.73): + thresholds = SimpleNamespace() + if apprentice_threshold is not None: + thresholds.apprentice_upper_secondary_threshold = apprentice_threshold + class_1 = SimpleNamespace( + employer_scale=SimpleNamespace( + components=[None, SimpleNamespace(rate=0.138, threshold=175.0)] + ), + thresholds=thresholds, + ) + instants = [] + + def parameters(instant): + instants.append(instant) + return SimpleNamespace( + gov=SimpleNamespace( + hmrc=SimpleNamespace( + national_insurance=SimpleNamespace(class_1=class_1) + ) + ) + ) + + return SimpleNamespace( + variables=dict.fromkeys(variables), parameters=parameters + ), instants + + +_SPLIT = ("qualifies_for_apprentice_minimum_wage", "is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship") + + +def test_schedule_reads_the_engine_at_the_start_of_the_stage_year() -> None: + system, instants = _system(variables=_SPLIT) + + schedule = apprentice_relief_schedule(system, "2024") + + assert instants == ["2024-01-01"] + assert schedule == { + "period": 2024, + "rate": 0.138, + "secondary_threshold": 175.0 * 52, + "apprentice_upper_secondary_threshold": 966.73 * 52, + } + + +def test_schedule_is_absent_without_an_engine() -> None: + assert apprentice_relief_schedule(None, "2024") is None + + +def test_schedule_refuses_an_engine_without_the_minimum_wage_split() -> None: + system, _ = _system(variables=()) + + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="2683"): + apprentice_relief_schedule(system, "2024") + + +def test_schedule_refuses_an_engine_without_the_apprentice_threshold() -> None: + system, _ = _system(variables=_SPLIT, apprentice_threshold=None) + + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="apprentice_upper_secondary_threshold"): + apprentice_relief_schedule(system, "2024") diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py index fd3b1f22dd..15fe6f81bf 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py @@ -3179,6 +3179,7 @@ def _apprentice_receipt(**overrides): "flagged_support": "30+", "realized_mass": rate * 1_000_000.0 + 500.0, "realization_deviation": 500.0, + "implied_relief": 200_000_000.0, } receipt.update(overrides) return {"stage": "frs_person_draws", "apprentice_receipt": receipt} @@ -3213,6 +3214,8 @@ def test_apprentice_gate_holds_the_draw_to_the_contract_rate() -> None: "fewer than ten", ), (_apprentice_receipt(cap_bound=True), "cap_bound is True"), + (_apprentice_receipt(implied_relief=400_000_000.0), "above the"), + (_apprentice_receipt(implied_relief=None), "no implied relief"), ( _apprentice_receipt( population_support="<10", From 4354c3985aa69390b8d0ae50553eaabd161b5cf4 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 26 Oct 2026 22:05:38 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 09/12] Name the apprentice gate's small cells unchecked, never failed (#1373) MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit #1396 carries María's ruling of 2026-10-26 that a small-cell rule may only flag. The apprentice gate failed a draw whose receipt printed a figure "<10" (a population, flagged weight or implied relief resting on fewer than ten source households). It now checks what the receipt prints and names the rest in figures_unchecked_small_cells, as the UC take-up, excise and gambling gates do. The gate's notes say so, which moves the UK gate-battery and spine certification digests. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json | 2 +- .../build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py | 79 +++++++++---------- .../engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py | 64 +++++++++++---- .../src/microcosm/data/contract.py | 6 +- .../tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py | 4 +- 5 files changed, 92 insertions(+), 63 deletions(-) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json index 6713268777..6c9d162f93 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json @@ -914,7 +914,7 @@ "maximum_relative_realization_deviation": 0.05, "maximum_implied_relief": 370000000.0 }, - "notes": "Stage-time gate over the is_apprentice receipt (microcosm#1373). The draw's target is the contract's apprentice_stock_19_to_24 for the build year (DfE's England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year, participation less starts, per head aged 19 to 24) times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the stage's weights, and eligible employees aged 21 to 24 are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it, so the stage misses it by at most half one person's weight. The gate checks that the receipt carries the contract's rate under the declared key, that its target is that rate times its population, that its support is printed in bands, and, unless the eligible employees weigh no more than the target (cap-bound, every one of them flagged), that the flagged weight lies within maximum_relative_realization_deviation (5 percent) of the target. That tolerance is a declared rule set above the half-weight bound, not a fact. A flagged weight on fewer than ten source households fails: the receipt withholds it under the UKDS disclosure rule, and a rate realized on so few records would not describe the population. The receipt also records the relief the flags imply at the installed engine's own Class 1 schedule for the build year (on a 2024 frame, 13.8 percent between GBP 9,100 and GBP 50,270), with each flagged employee's pay standing in for NIC earnings, and the gate holds it at or below maximum_implied_relief: GBP 370m, HMRC's NIC - NS1 for 2024-25 (tax relief statistics, January 2026, Table 2), which covers every apprentice under 25, under-21s included, since the apprentice relief takes precedence (Vahid's review of microcosm#1373, S1). It is a ceiling, not a target. The stage refuses an installed engine without the s.9B threshold or without policyengine-uk#2683's split of the apprentice minimum wage from the flag. The entry is a population_fact_check, so the synthetic smoke build over the H2 fixture records its outcome without blocking; every licensed build blocks on it." + "notes": "Stage-time gate over the is_apprentice receipt (microcosm#1373). The draw's target is the contract's apprentice_stock_19_to_24 for the build year (DfE's England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year, participation less starts, per head aged 19 to 24) times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the stage's weights, and eligible employees aged 21 to 24 are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it, so the stage misses it by at most half one person's weight. The gate checks that the receipt carries the contract's rate under the declared key, that its target is that rate times its population, that its support is printed in bands, and, unless the eligible employees weigh no more than the target (cap-bound, every one of them flagged), that the flagged weight lies within maximum_relative_realization_deviation (5 percent) of the target. That tolerance is a declared rule set above the half-weight bound, not a fact. A figure resting on fewer than ten source households, which the receipt withholds under the UKDS disclosure rule and prints \"<10\", is named unchecked, never failed: a small-cell rule never stops a build (María's ruling of 2026-10-26). The receipt also records the relief the flags imply at the installed engine's own Class 1 schedule for the build year (on a 2024 frame, 13.8 percent between GBP 9,100 and GBP 50,270), with each flagged employee's pay standing in for NIC earnings, and the gate holds it at or below maximum_implied_relief: GBP 370m, HMRC's NIC - NS1 for 2024-25 (tax relief statistics, January 2026, Table 2), which covers every apprentice under 25, under-21s included, since the apprentice relief takes precedence (Vahid's review of microcosm#1373, S1). It is a ceiling, not a target. The stage refuses an installed engine without the s.9B threshold or without policyengine-uk#2683's split of the apprentice minimum wage from the flag. The entry is a population_fact_check, so the synthetic smoke build over the H2 fixture records its outcome without blocking; every licensed build blocks on it." }, { "id": "uk_release_input_coverage", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py index d2f9c13e40..717448a6df 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py @@ -4520,12 +4520,13 @@ def _apprentice_draw_gate( aged 21 to 24, and its support as printed bands. Unless the eligible employees weigh no more than the target (cap-bound: every one of them is flagged), the flagged weight lies within - ``maximum_relative_realization_deviation`` of the target. A flagged weight - on fewer than ten source households fails: the receipt withholds it, and a - rate realized on so few records would not describe the population. The - relief the flags imply at the engine's own Class 1 schedule must stay at or - below ``maximum_implied_relief``, HMRC's apprentice relief for every - apprentice under 25 (Vahid's review of microcosm#1373, S1). + ``maximum_relative_realization_deviation`` of the target. The relief the + flags imply at the engine's own Class 1 schedule must stay at or below + ``maximum_implied_relief``, HMRC's apprentice relief for every apprentice + under 25 (Vahid's review of microcosm#1373, S1). A figure resting on fewer + than ten source households, which the receipt prints "<10", is named + unchecked, never failed: a small-cell rule never stops a build (María's + ruling of 2026-10-26). """ from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.take_up_contract import load_uk_take_up_contract @@ -4561,7 +4562,7 @@ def _apprentice_draw_gate( f"{stage}: the draw's rate {rate} is not the contract's {declared} " f"for {build_year}." ) - withheld = [ + unchecked = [ key for key in ( "population_mass", @@ -4569,23 +4570,28 @@ def _apprentice_draw_gate( "target", "realized_mass", "realization_deviation", + "implied_relief", ) if receipt.get(key) == "<10" ] - if withheld: - failures.append( - f"{stage}: {', '.join(withheld)} rest on fewer than ten source " - "households, so the draw cannot be checked against the rate." + + def _figure(key: str) -> float | None: + if key in unchecked: + return None + return _finite_number(receipt.get(key), label=f"{stage}.{key}") + + population = _figure("population_mass") + eligible = _figure("eligible_mass") + target = _figure("target") + realized = _figure("realized_mass") + printed = _figure("realization_deviation") + if ( + target is not None + and population is not None + and not math.isclose( + target, rate * population, rel_tol=_FLOAT_RELATIVE_TOLERANCE ) - return _fail(stage, check, failures, {"rate_key": rate_key, "rate": rate}) - population = _finite_number( - receipt.get("population_mass"), label=f"{stage}.population_mass" - ) - eligible = _finite_number( - receipt.get("eligible_mass"), label=f"{stage}.eligible_mass" - ) - target = _finite_number(receipt.get("target"), label=f"{stage}.target") - if not math.isclose(target, rate * population, rel_tol=_FLOAT_RELATIVE_TOLERANCE): + ): failures.append( f"{stage}: target {target} is not the rate times the population aged " f"21 to 24 ({rate * population})." @@ -4597,26 +4603,16 @@ def _apprentice_draw_gate( cap_bound = receipt.get("cap_bound") if not isinstance(cap_bound, bool): raise ValueError(f"{stage}.cap_bound must be a boolean, got {cap_bound!r}.") - shortfall = target > 0.0 and eligible <= target - if cap_bound != shortfall: - failures.append( - f"{stage}: cap_bound is {cap_bound} with eligible weight {eligible} " - f"against target {target}." - ) + if target is not None and eligible is not None: + shortfall = target > 0.0 and eligible <= target + if cap_bound != shortfall: + failures.append( + f"{stage}: cap_bound is {cap_bound} with eligible weight {eligible} " + f"against target {target}." + ) relative: float | None = None - if receipt.get("flagged_support") == "<10" or receipt.get("realized_mass") == "<10": - failures.append( - f"{stage}: the flagged weight rests on fewer than ten source households." - ) - else: - realized = _finite_number( - receipt.get("realized_mass"), label=f"{stage}.realized_mass" - ) - printed = _finite_number( - receipt.get("realization_deviation"), - label=f"{stage}.realization_deviation", - ) - if not math.isclose( + if realized is not None and target is not None: + if printed is not None and not math.isclose( printed, realized - target, rel_tol=1e-9, abs_tol=1e-6 * max(target, 1.0) ): failures.append( @@ -4624,7 +4620,9 @@ def _apprentice_draw_gate( f"target ({realized - target})." ) if cap_bound: - if not math.isclose(realized, eligible, rel_tol=1e-9): + if eligible is not None and not math.isclose( + realized, eligible, rel_tol=1e-9 + ): failures.append( f"{stage}: a cap-bound draw flags every eligible employee, but " f"{realized} of {eligible} is flagged." @@ -4660,6 +4658,7 @@ def _apprentice_draw_gate( "relative_realization_deviation": relative, "implied_relief": implied, "maximum_implied_relief": ceiling, + "figures_unchecked_small_cells": unchecked, } if failures: return _fail(stage, check, failures, details) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py index 12481e4753..f0ad97eeaf 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py @@ -3254,32 +3254,62 @@ def test_apprentice_gate_holds_the_draw_to_the_contract_rate() -> None: "away from it", ), (_apprentice_receipt(realization_deviation=0.0), "realized minus target"), - ( - _apprentice_receipt( - flagged_support="<10", - realized_mass="<10", - realization_deviation="<10", - ), - "fewer than ten", - ), (_apprentice_receipt(cap_bound=True), "cap_bound is True"), (_apprentice_receipt(implied_relief=400_000_000.0), "above the"), (_apprentice_receipt(implied_relief=None), "no implied relief"), - ( - _apprentice_receipt( - population_support="<10", - population_mass="<10", - target="<10", - realization_deviation="<10", - ), - "population_mass, target", - ), ): result = _gate(gate_id, receipt) assert not result.passed assert any(fragment in failure for failure in result.failures), result.failures +def test_apprentice_gate_flags_its_small_cells_without_failing() -> None: + """A "<10" figure is named unchecked, never failed (María's ruling, 10-26).""" + + gate_id = "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices" + thin_flags = _gate( + gate_id, + _apprentice_receipt( + flagged_support="<10", + realized_mass="<10", + realization_deviation="<10", + implied_relief="<10", + ), + ) + assert _passed(thin_flags) + assert thin_flags.details["figures_unchecked_small_cells"] == [ + "realized_mass", + "realization_deviation", + "implied_relief", + ] + thin_population = _gate( + gate_id, + _apprentice_receipt( + population_support="<10", + population_mass="<10", + target="<10", + realization_deviation="<10", + ), + ) + assert _passed(thin_population) + assert thin_population.details["figures_unchecked_small_cells"] == [ + "population_mass", + "target", + "realization_deviation", + ] + assert ( + _gate(gate_id, _apprentice_receipt()).details["figures_unchecked_small_cells"] + == [] + ) + # What the receipt still prints is checked beside a withheld figure. + off_rate = _gate( + gate_id, + _apprentice_receipt(eligible_support="<10", eligible_mass="<10", rate=0.05992), + ) + assert not off_rate.passed + assert any("not the contract's" in failure for failure in off_rate.failures) + + def test_apprentice_gate_accepts_a_cap_bound_draw_that_flags_every_employee() -> None: gate_id = "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices" rate = _apprentice_receipt()["apprentice_receipt"]["rate"] diff --git a/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py b/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py index 119134ccd6..7ebb65a13d 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py @@ -454,10 +454,10 @@ def compatibility_claim_declarer_error(declared_by: object) -> str | None: "5f8a65be07c1df68e6beeab1a795a660940a626f6fe12b8cd282b236a9d41d03" ) _UK_GATE_BATTERY_GATES_MANIFEST_SHA256 = ( - "08b7f6367d97929e25a84a087e104f76dbe490e71a0db2654e2f39242d9dbf5a" + "46e58e85a771c10101ea79905a62077fd9d68c408dc3ecf5c706b6af16f0cb4a" ) _UK_GATE_BATTERY_SPEC_FINGERPRINT = ( - "e9a12a44386ec66604279629060474ad7c18c4e2b5a38619bff9e92bcf0fab01" + "fdb46cc0f42398589c0fbdfdccdb288a1edd6c0b941c26ff2e282128a4037a60" ) #: Spec entry id -> the legacy gate name whose observable detail checks #: apply unchanged (the battery re-keys the report by entry id; the gate @@ -955,7 +955,7 @@ def _uk_line_cut_tag_re(release_id: str) -> re.Pattern[str] | None: _UK_CERTIFICATION_PART_DIGESTS: Mapping[str, Mapping[str, str]] = { "spine": { "gates_manifest_sha256": ( - "3d9f0396d5d0a7431e100a630e8a6c8646ccfbe1ccf1423f526e823013e36b08" + "a66ce7e3a1bca21e45f8a3d5b40fa236d2f0990bfafe6a41a2f1c9d1e942c432" ), "policy_sha256": ( "eaf400f0603a56188289bb0e62915096f22af2740192dc627ab1d635647861e8" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-data/tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py b/packages/microcosm-data/tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py index dc2164117e..ecef9eb0c6 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-data/tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-data/tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py @@ -216,10 +216,10 @@ def _trusted_terminal_gate_signing_key(monkeypatch) -> None: "5f8a65be07c1df68e6beeab1a795a660940a626f6fe12b8cd282b236a9d41d03" ) UK_GATE_BATTERY_GATES_MANIFEST_SHA256 = ( - "08b7f6367d97929e25a84a087e104f76dbe490e71a0db2654e2f39242d9dbf5a" + "46e58e85a771c10101ea79905a62077fd9d68c408dc3ecf5c706b6af16f0cb4a" ) UK_GATE_BATTERY_SPEC_FINGERPRINT = ( - "e9a12a44386ec66604279629060474ad7c18c4e2b5a38619bff9e92bcf0fab01" + "fdb46cc0f42398589c0fbdfdccdb288a1edd6c0b941c26ff2e282128a4037a60" ) UK_GATE_BATTERY_DEGENERATE_EVIDENCE_SHA256 = ( "6a179222c6b6058ad9caacfd347f7bdb8cb98a62237b50d1fc1136df09337251" From ab7c777e206f45f83e6070419401e7336edae19a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 26 Oct 2026 23:09:47 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 10/12] Lock policyengine-uk 2.162.8 for the apprentice minimum wage split (#1373) MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit policyengine-uk#2684 (closing policyengine-uk#2683) gives the apprentice minimum wage only under 19 or with is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship, so the employees frs_person_draws flags keep their age-related minimum wage. It was versioned 2.162.7, which never reached PyPI, so the lock moves from 2.162.3 to 2.162.8, the first published release with it, and the floors in the three pyproject files follow. - uv.lock moves policyengine-uk alone; APPROVED_UV_LOCK_SHA256 follows. - The uprating pins and the bonus-sacrifice anchor change only their version stamps. - The concept coverage gains is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship, left at its default (False) in UK_ENGINE_DEFAULT_INPUTS for María's signature. - The H2 spine fixture and the coverage manifest are regenerated; the H2 fixture now carries the apprentice operation. - The engine guard, the stage notes and the docstrings name 2.162.8. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../uk-policyengine-uk-2-162-8.changed.md | 1 + docs/concept-coverage/policyengine-uk.md | 10 ++--- packages/microcosm-build/pyproject.toml | 2 +- .../build/uk/bonus_sacrifice_anchor.json | 2 +- .../build/uk/hmrc_uprating_engine_pins.json | 2 +- .../uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json | 44 +++++++++---------- .../src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json | 10 ++--- .../src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml | 10 ++--- .../build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py | 8 ++-- .../microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_take_up.py | 2 +- .../build/uk_runtime/hmrc_uprating.py | 4 +- .../build/uk_runtime/uc_capital_coherence.py | 2 +- .../build/us_runtime/worker_identity.py | 2 +- .../engine/uk/test_uk_dfe_spring_term.py | 2 +- .../shared/test_engine_core_pins.py | 2 +- .../engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_stochastic.py | 2 +- packages/microcosm-data/pyproject.toml | 2 +- packages/microcosm-frame/pyproject.toml | 2 +- .../adapters/policyengine_uk_concepts.py | 16 ++++++- .../concept-coverage/policyengine-uk.json | 8 +++- .../parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json | 23 +++++++--- .../fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json | 2 +- uv.lock | 12 ++--- 23 files changed, 99 insertions(+), 71 deletions(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/uk-policyengine-uk-2-162-8.changed.md diff --git a/changelog.d/uk-policyengine-uk-2-162-8.changed.md b/changelog.d/uk-policyengine-uk-2-162-8.changed.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..5e9d63942a --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/uk-policyengine-uk-2-162-8.changed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +The UK lock moves from policyengine-uk 2.162.3 to 2.162.8 for the apprentice minimum wage's split from `is_apprentice` (policyengine-uk#2683, released in 2.162.8 because 2.162.7 never reached PyPI): the apprentice rate now applies only under 19 or with `is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship`, which the build leaves at its default (False, signed), so the employees `frs_person_draws` flags keep their age-related minimum wage (#1373). The move also uprates reported council tax reduction with each household's council tax in projected years (policyengine-uk#2680), which changes values read at 2025 from the 2024 frame wherever the engine uses reported council tax reduction; screens income-related ESA and income-based JSA reports separately for people outside the claimant couple (policyengine-uk#2679); holds Universal Credit advance repayments at their cash amount under allowance reforms (policyengine-uk#2574; no baseline change); and annualises fiscal parameters past 2040 (2.162.4). diff --git a/docs/concept-coverage/policyengine-uk.md b/docs/concept-coverage/policyengine-uk.md index 8eb5c131b1..088cb7c13b 100644 --- a/docs/concept-coverage/policyengine-uk.md +++ b/docs/concept-coverage/policyengine-uk.md @@ -1,11 +1,11 @@ # Concept coverage: policyengine-uk -Engine version `2.162.3`; concept schema `5a55669d0447`. Generated by `tools/refresh_concept_coverage.py`; do not edit by hand. +Engine version `2.162.8`; concept schema `5a55669d0447`. Generated by `tools/refresh_concept_coverage.py`; do not edit by hand. -- Engine inputs: 356 +- Engine inputs: 357 - Fed by a concept: 41 - Structural: 11 -- Uncovered: 304 +- Uncovered: 305 - Mapped but missing from the engine: 0 ## Inputs each concept feeds @@ -58,6 +58,6 @@ Engine version `2.162.3`; concept schema `5a55669d0447`. Generated by `tools/ref `accommodation_type`, `additional_residential_property_purchased`, `alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption`, `beer_draught_share`, `beer_litres`, `betting_exchange_commission`, `bingo_net_receipts`, `bus_fare_spending_reported`, `bus_subsidy_spending`, `cash_isa`, `cider_draught_share`, `cider_litres`, `cigarettes_per_week`, `cigars_grams_per_week`, `clothing_and_footwear_consumption`, `communication_consumption`, `consumer_debt`, `corporate_wealth`, `council_tax_band`, `cumulative_non_residential_rent`, `cumulative_residential_rent`, `dfe_education_spending`, `diesel_spending`, `directly_held_shares`, `domestic_energy_consumption`, `domestic_rates`, `ebr_energy_bills_credit_eligible`, `education_consumption`, `electricity_consumption`, `electricity_consumption_kwh`, `external_child_payments`, `financial_spread_betting_net_losses`, `food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages_consumption`, `full_rate_vat_expenditure_rate`, `gas_consumption`, `gas_consumption_kwh`, `gross_financial_wealth`, `hand_rolling_tobacco_grams_per_week`, `health_consumption`, `heated_tobacco_grams_per_week`, `horse_and_dog_pool_betting_net_losses`, `household_furnishings_consumption`, `household_owns_tv`, `housing_service_charges`, `housing_water_and_electricity_consumption`, `in_original_frs`, `in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area`, `is_shared_accommodation`, `land_based_casino_net_losses`, `land_based_fixed_odds_betting_net_losses`, `liquid_fuel_consumption`, `local_authority`, `lpg_kg`, `machine_games_higher_rate_net_takings`, `machine_games_lower_rate_net_takings`, `machine_games_standard_rate_net_takings`, `main_residence_value`, `main_residential_property_purchased_is_first_home`, `main_residential_property_purchased_is_in_uk`, `main_residential_property_purchased_with_mortgage`, `miscellaneous_consumption`, `mortgage_debt`, `national_lottery_ticket_spending`, `natural_gas_kg`, `net_financial_wealth`, `ni_epg_full_rate_applies`, `non_residential_property_purchased`, `non_residential_property_secured_debt`, `non_residential_property_value`, `non_residential_rent`, `num_bedrooms`, `num_vehicles`, `other_fermented_draught_share`, `other_fermented_litres`, `other_residential_property_secured_debt`, `other_residential_property_value`, `other_spread_betting_net_losses`, `other_tobacco_grams_per_week`, `owned_land`, `petrol_spending`, `pool_betting_net_receipts`, `private_pension_wealth`, `property_purchased`, `rail_usage`, `recreation_consumption`, `region`, `remote_gaming_net_losses`, `remote_other_betting_net_losses`, `remote_uk_horseracing_betting_net_losses`, `restaurants_and_hotels_consumption`, `savings`, `solid_fuel_consumption`, `sparkling_cider_draught_share`, `sparkling_cider_litres`, `spi_imputed`, `spirits_draught_share`, `spirits_litres`, `stocks_and_shares_isa`, `structural_insurance_payments`, `transport_consumption`, `uc_migrated`, `unit_and_investment_trusts`, `uses_energy_prepayment_meter`, `water_and_sewerage_charges`, `wine_draught_share`, `wine_litres`, `would_evade_tv_licence_fee` -### person (180) +### person (181) -`a_and_e_visits`, `aa_category`, `access_fund`, `admitted_patient_visits`, `adult_dependants_grant_has_other_adult_dependant`, `adult_dependants_grant_other_adult_income`, `adult_dependants_grant_receives_postgraduate_loan`, `adult_ema`, `afcs_reported`, `age_started_or_accepted_current_education_or_training`, `armed_forces_independence_payment`, `attends_private_school_random_draw`, `base_net_income`, `blind_persons_allowance`, `bsp_reported`, `bursary_fund_16_to_19_in_care_or_care_leaver`, `bursary_fund_16_to_19_participation_costs`, `bursary_fund_16_to_19_self_supporting`, `bus_in_london_trips`, `bus_pass_eligible`, `capital_allowances`, `capital_gains_badr`, `capital_gains_carried_interest`, `capital_gains_residential_property`, `car_co2_emissions`, `car_engine_size`, `car_first_registration_date`, `car_fuel_type`, `car_is_ved_exempt`, `car_list_price`, `care_hours`, `carers_allowance_reported`, `charitable_investment_gifts`, `child_benefit_reported`, `child_ema`, `child_limit_adoption_exception`, `child_limit_continuation_exception`, `child_limit_multiple_birth_exception`, `child_limit_non_consensual_conception_exception`, `child_limit_non_parental_caring_exception`, `child_tax_credit_reported`, `childcare_expenses`, `childcare_grant_child_has_special_educational_needs`, `childcare_grant_provider_is_nanny`, `childcare_grant_receives_nhs_childcare_support`, `childcare_grant_receives_postgraduate_loan`, `council_tax_benefit_reported`, `covenanted_payments`, `deficiency_relief`, `defined_benefit_pension_share`, `disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses`, `disabled_students_allowance_receives_equivalent_support`, `dla_m_category`, `dla_sc_category`, `early_years_school_start_deferred`, `education_grants`, `employee_pension_contributions_reported`, `employer_pension_contributions`, `employment_expenses`, `employment_sector`, `employment_status`, `esa_contrib_reported`, `esa_income_reported`, `free_school_fruit_veg`, `free_school_meals`, `free_school_milk`, `gift_aid`, `healthy_start_vouchers`, `housing_benefit_reported`, `iidb_reported`, `in_FE`, `incapacity_benefit_reported`, `income_support_reported`, `individual_savings_account_dividend_income`, `is_about_to_start_paid_work`, `is_apprentice`, `is_before_universal_credit_qualifying_young_person_terminal_date`, `is_blind`, `is_engaged_in_owned_company_trade`, `is_full_year_category_a_director`, `is_in_approved_training`, `is_looked_after_by_local_authority`, `is_newly_self_employed`, `jsa_contrib_reported`, `jsa_income_reported`, `lifetime_isa_balance`, `lifetime_isa_first_time_buyer`, `lifetime_isa_months_since_first_payment`, `lifetime_isa_payments`, `lifetime_isa_terminally_ill`, `lifetime_isa_withdrawals`, `lifetime_isa_withdrawals_towards_first_home`, `local_bus_uncapped_single_fare`, `loss_relief`, `lump_sum_income`, `maintenance_expenses`, `maintenance_income`, `married_couples_allowance`, `maternity_allowance_reported`, `max_free_entitlement_hours_used`, `miscellaneous_income`, `nhs_a_and_e_spending`, `nhs_admitted_patient_spending`, `nhs_outpatient_spending`, `ni_class_3`, `non_cash_isa_cash_interest`, `other_deductions`, `other_investment_income`, `other_local_bus_trips`, `other_tax_credits`, `outpatient_visits`, `owned_company_capital`, `owned_company_carries_on_property_business`, `owned_company_carries_on_trade`, `owned_company_holding_value`, `owned_company_income_share`, `owned_company_intermediary_earnings_chapter`, `owned_company_intermediary_earnings_from_main_employment`, `owned_company_is_main_employment`, `owned_company_trade_assets`, `pension_annual_allowance_taxable_lump_sum_death_benefits`, `pension_contributions_via_bonus_sacrifice`, `pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice`, `pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice_pre_2015`, `pension_credit_reported`, `pension_income`, `person_benunit_role`, `person_household_role`, `personal_pension_contributions`, `pip_dl_points`, `pip_m_points`, `private_transfer_income`, `property_finance_costs`, `property_finance_costs_brought_forward`, `property_rental_income`, `receives_benefits_in_own_right`, `receives_limited_capability_for_work_credits`, `rent_paid_as_boarder`, `rent_paid_as_lodger`, `role`, `salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income`, `scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_start_date_reached`, `sda_reported`, `self_employment_gross_receipts`, `sic_industry_division`, `spousal_maintenance_income`, `ssmg_reported`, `stands_as_sole_owner_or_partner_of_company`, `statutory_maternity_pay`, `statutory_paternity_pay`, `statutory_sick_pay`, `student_loan_balance`, `student_loan_plan`, `student_loans`, `sublet_income`, `tax_free_childcare_on_adoption_leave`, `tax_free_childcare_on_carers_leave`, `tax_free_childcare_on_qualifying_leave`, `tax_free_childcare_on_shared_parental_leave`, `tax_free_childcare_self_employment_start_up_period`, `tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share`, `tax_free_childcare_uses_qualifying_provider`, `tax_reported`, `travel_grant_abroad_placement`, `travel_grant_clinical_placement`, `travel_grant_eligible_expenses`, `travel_grant_receives_means_tested_nhs_bursary`, `uc_has_offer_of_paid_work_starting_by_end_of_next_assessment_period`, `uc_is_adopter_in_first_year`, `uc_is_foster_parent_or_new_friend_or_family_carer`, `uc_is_in_pregnancy_or_post_confinement_period`, `uc_is_in_startup_period`, `uc_is_responsible_foster_parent_of_child_under_one`, `uc_is_student_with_no_work_related_requirements`, `uc_is_temporarily_absent_from_claimant_household`, `universal_credit_reported`, `war_widows_pension_reported`, `widowed_parents_allowance_reported`, `winter_fuel_allowance_reported`, `working_tax_credit_reported` +`a_and_e_visits`, `aa_category`, `access_fund`, `admitted_patient_visits`, `adult_dependants_grant_has_other_adult_dependant`, `adult_dependants_grant_other_adult_income`, `adult_dependants_grant_receives_postgraduate_loan`, `adult_ema`, `afcs_reported`, `age_started_or_accepted_current_education_or_training`, `armed_forces_independence_payment`, `attends_private_school_random_draw`, `base_net_income`, `blind_persons_allowance`, `bsp_reported`, `bursary_fund_16_to_19_in_care_or_care_leaver`, `bursary_fund_16_to_19_participation_costs`, `bursary_fund_16_to_19_self_supporting`, `bus_in_london_trips`, `bus_pass_eligible`, `capital_allowances`, `capital_gains_badr`, `capital_gains_carried_interest`, `capital_gains_residential_property`, `car_co2_emissions`, `car_engine_size`, `car_first_registration_date`, `car_fuel_type`, `car_is_ved_exempt`, `car_list_price`, `care_hours`, `carers_allowance_reported`, `charitable_investment_gifts`, `child_benefit_reported`, `child_ema`, `child_limit_adoption_exception`, `child_limit_continuation_exception`, `child_limit_multiple_birth_exception`, `child_limit_non_consensual_conception_exception`, `child_limit_non_parental_caring_exception`, `child_tax_credit_reported`, `childcare_expenses`, `childcare_grant_child_has_special_educational_needs`, `childcare_grant_provider_is_nanny`, `childcare_grant_receives_nhs_childcare_support`, `childcare_grant_receives_postgraduate_loan`, `council_tax_benefit_reported`, `covenanted_payments`, `deficiency_relief`, `defined_benefit_pension_share`, `disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses`, `disabled_students_allowance_receives_equivalent_support`, `dla_m_category`, `dla_sc_category`, `early_years_school_start_deferred`, `education_grants`, `employee_pension_contributions_reported`, `employer_pension_contributions`, `employment_expenses`, `employment_sector`, `employment_status`, `esa_contrib_reported`, `esa_income_reported`, `free_school_fruit_veg`, `free_school_meals`, `free_school_milk`, `gift_aid`, `healthy_start_vouchers`, `housing_benefit_reported`, `iidb_reported`, `in_FE`, `incapacity_benefit_reported`, `income_support_reported`, `individual_savings_account_dividend_income`, `is_about_to_start_paid_work`, `is_apprentice`, `is_before_universal_credit_qualifying_young_person_terminal_date`, `is_blind`, `is_engaged_in_owned_company_trade`, `is_full_year_category_a_director`, `is_in_approved_training`, `is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship`, `is_looked_after_by_local_authority`, `is_newly_self_employed`, `jsa_contrib_reported`, `jsa_income_reported`, `lifetime_isa_balance`, `lifetime_isa_first_time_buyer`, `lifetime_isa_months_since_first_payment`, `lifetime_isa_payments`, `lifetime_isa_terminally_ill`, `lifetime_isa_withdrawals`, `lifetime_isa_withdrawals_towards_first_home`, `local_bus_uncapped_single_fare`, `loss_relief`, `lump_sum_income`, `maintenance_expenses`, `maintenance_income`, `married_couples_allowance`, `maternity_allowance_reported`, `max_free_entitlement_hours_used`, `miscellaneous_income`, `nhs_a_and_e_spending`, `nhs_admitted_patient_spending`, `nhs_outpatient_spending`, `ni_class_3`, `non_cash_isa_cash_interest`, `other_deductions`, `other_investment_income`, `other_local_bus_trips`, `other_tax_credits`, `outpatient_visits`, `owned_company_capital`, `owned_company_carries_on_property_business`, `owned_company_carries_on_trade`, `owned_company_holding_value`, `owned_company_income_share`, `owned_company_intermediary_earnings_chapter`, `owned_company_intermediary_earnings_from_main_employment`, `owned_company_is_main_employment`, `owned_company_trade_assets`, `pension_annual_allowance_taxable_lump_sum_death_benefits`, `pension_contributions_via_bonus_sacrifice`, `pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice`, `pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice_pre_2015`, `pension_credit_reported`, `pension_income`, `person_benunit_role`, `person_household_role`, `personal_pension_contributions`, `pip_dl_points`, `pip_m_points`, `private_transfer_income`, `property_finance_costs`, `property_finance_costs_brought_forward`, `property_rental_income`, `receives_benefits_in_own_right`, `receives_limited_capability_for_work_credits`, `rent_paid_as_boarder`, `rent_paid_as_lodger`, `role`, `salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income`, `scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_start_date_reached`, `sda_reported`, `self_employment_gross_receipts`, `sic_industry_division`, `spousal_maintenance_income`, `ssmg_reported`, `stands_as_sole_owner_or_partner_of_company`, `statutory_maternity_pay`, `statutory_paternity_pay`, `statutory_sick_pay`, `student_loan_balance`, `student_loan_plan`, `student_loans`, `sublet_income`, `tax_free_childcare_on_adoption_leave`, `tax_free_childcare_on_carers_leave`, `tax_free_childcare_on_qualifying_leave`, `tax_free_childcare_on_shared_parental_leave`, `tax_free_childcare_self_employment_start_up_period`, `tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share`, `tax_free_childcare_uses_qualifying_provider`, `tax_reported`, `travel_grant_abroad_placement`, `travel_grant_clinical_placement`, `travel_grant_eligible_expenses`, `travel_grant_receives_means_tested_nhs_bursary`, `uc_has_offer_of_paid_work_starting_by_end_of_next_assessment_period`, `uc_is_adopter_in_first_year`, `uc_is_foster_parent_or_new_friend_or_family_carer`, `uc_is_in_pregnancy_or_post_confinement_period`, `uc_is_in_startup_period`, `uc_is_responsible_foster_parent_of_child_under_one`, `uc_is_student_with_no_work_related_requirements`, `uc_is_temporarily_absent_from_claimant_household`, `universal_credit_reported`, `war_widows_pension_reported`, `widowed_parents_allowance_reported`, `winter_fuel_allowance_reported`, `working_tax_credit_reported` diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/pyproject.toml b/packages/microcosm-build/pyproject.toml index 3f72a160ad..a294022a97 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/pyproject.toml +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/pyproject.toml @@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ us = [ # The UK extra adds the rules engine for local metric generation from a # Microcosm UK H5. Target tables remain explicit inputs, and the base package # still does not import policyengine-uk at import time. -uk = ["policyengine-uk>=2.162.3", "microcosm-data>=0.1,<0.2", "h5py>=3", "tables>=3", "openpyxl>=3.1"] +uk = ["policyengine-uk>=2.162.8", "microcosm-data>=0.1,<0.2", "h5py>=3", "tables>=3", "openpyxl>=3.1"] [project.scripts] microcosm-build-uk = "microcosm.build.uk_runtime.full_build_cli:main" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/bonus_sacrifice_anchor.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/bonus_sacrifice_anchor.json index 98ece5cb5b..4caa3a8051 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/bonus_sacrifice_anchor.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/bonus_sacrifice_anchor.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "schema_version": 1, "engine": { "package": "policyengine-uk", - "version": "2.162.3" + "version": "2.162.8" }, "written_by": "tools/pin_uk_bonus_sacrifice_anchor.py", "source": { diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/hmrc_uprating_engine_pins.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/hmrc_uprating_engine_pins.json index d1a3f5c7e8..d10cd64442 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/hmrc_uprating_engine_pins.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/hmrc_uprating_engine_pins.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "schema_version": 1, "engine": { "package": "policyengine-uk", - "version": "2.162.3" + "version": "2.162.8" }, "basis": "policyengine-uk parameter ratio between 1 January of the fact's opening year and 1 January of the calibration year (the SPI donor rebasing convention)", "written_by": "tools/pin_uk_uprating_engine_values.py", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json index a4158415c0..1d2a6a242e 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json @@ -470,7 +470,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains incidence anchor moves the mass of non-liable clone households back to their paired originals until the sub-exempt and loss-making clone mass match the Advani-Summers reporter composition at the redrawn liable mass; every pair's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "Advani and Summers (2020), Capital Gains and UK Inequality, CAGE Working Paper 465", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support, the HMRC Table 3 redrawn gains on the spine and Advani-Summers capital-gains incidence" @@ -493,7 +493,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "Advani and Summers (2020), Capital Gains and UK Inequality, CAGE Working Paper 465", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support, and Advani-Summers capital-gains incidence" @@ -516,7 +516,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains residential split divides every household carrying liable gainers into arms weighted by the solved residential probabilities, one arm per subset of residential gainers; every household's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/capital-gains-tax-statistics", "survey": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics 2026 release, Table 8 (UK residential property disposals, 2024-25, administrative) on the amounts the Table 3 redraw placed" @@ -538,7 +538,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains support split divides the wealthiest households of each HMRC Table 3 income band into light copies at equal weight; every household's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics, July 2026 release, Table 3 for 2024-25, via the vendored conditioning facts", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support and HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics Table 3 (2024-25 individuals by size of gain and taxable income)" @@ -567,7 +567,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "ETB public-services imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 8856 Effects of Taxes and Benefits household tab, DfT rail fare index, and public NHS activity/cost table.", "survey": "Effects of Taxes and Benefits 1977-2024 and NHS age-gender public table" @@ -587,7 +587,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "ETB VAT expenditure-rate imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 8856 Effects of Taxes and Benefits household tab and cited VAT anchor resource.", "survey": "Effects of Taxes and Benefits 1977-2024" @@ -609,7 +609,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "High-value home support divides every owner household in the top value stratum of its region into light copies at equal weight; every household's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "Microcosm structural operator (microcosm#1240 fix 1); no publisher input", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 and SPI synthetic support, after the WAS wealth draw and the regional property uprating" @@ -630,7 +630,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "CGT asset-type assignment on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/capital-gains-tax-statistics", "survey": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics 2026 release, Table 8 (UK residential property disposals, 2024-25, administrative), Table 4.1 (individuals claiming Business Asset Disposal Relief or Investors' Relief by band of qualifying gain, 2024-25, administrative) and Table 7 (disposals, proceeds and gains by asset type, 2023-24, sample-based), vendored from the pinned Chronicle feed" @@ -654,7 +654,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "conditioning_resource": "hmrc_cgt_conditioning_facts.json", "conditioning_resource_sha256": "e54cdad4cfe4498bfddb329d6b0aef468ea542a55c1970df574859626a3d19d3", @@ -744,7 +744,7 @@ "full_frs_tei_band_unavailable" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "hmrc_surface": "2023-24", "mapped_build_period": "2024", @@ -812,7 +812,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "LCFS consumption imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 9603 Living Costs and Food Survey 2024-25 (2nd edition) household/person tabs and the vendored Chronicle facts for NEED 2024 mean kWh, DESNZ Energy Trends and QEP average prices paid for calendar 2024, road-fuel outturn (DESNZ, HMRC, ONS Consumer Trends) and road fuel by vehicle type (DESNZ), ONS Consumer Trends household spending by COICOP division, the DfT VEH1103 licensed-car stock, NTS bus use, and the DfT and devolved bus finance tables and fares indices.", "survey": "Living Costs and Food Survey 2024-25" @@ -838,7 +838,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "NTS bus-travel imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "Department for Transport National Travel Survey, UK Data Service SN 5340 (End User Licence, 19th edition, November 2025), DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-5340-19; local licensed tab files (household, individual, trip); England residents only from 2013.", "survey": "National Travel Survey 2002-2024" @@ -858,7 +858,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Private-school attendance stored on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "policyengine-uk attends_private_school (the gov.simulation.private_school_vat attendance rates and factor), evaluated by the pinned engine", "survey": "policyengine-uk private-school attendance imputation, stored at the spine's weights" @@ -881,7 +881,7 @@ "property_finance_costs" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/property-rental-income-statistics", "survey": "Survey of Personal Incomes Public Use Tape 2022-23 and HMRC Property Rental Income Statistics 2026 (tax year 2024-25)" @@ -902,7 +902,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Annual property purchases imputed on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-stamp-tax-statistics", "survey": "HMRC Annual Stamp Tax Statistics 2024 to 2025 (corrected 11 March 2026), Tables 6b, 8a and 8b" @@ -925,7 +925,7 @@ "property_wealth" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "uk/high_value_home_value_knots.json, built by tools/build_uk_high_value_home_stock.py from PolicyEngine/chronicle#343's registrations", "survey": "HM Land Registry Price Paid latest sales uprated with the UK House Price Index, owner-weighted by region (the dense value node's knots, region level)" @@ -949,7 +949,7 @@ "non_residential_property_value" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "MHCLG dwellings and the UK House Price Index regional average price averaged over the twelve months of calendar 2024 from the July 2026 full file, the frame's valuation basis, so the engine's annual uprating from 2024 projects the value once (microcosm#1240 fix 5).", "survey": "Public regional property reference" @@ -977,7 +977,7 @@ "employment_income" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC, Salary sacrifice reform for pension contributions effective from 6 April 2029", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 salary-sacrifice respondents and HMRC salary-sacrifice reform analysis" @@ -1010,7 +1010,7 @@ "household_source_id" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "Reserved SPI support households for the HMRC Table 2.5 total-income bands from GBP 200,000, stacked at the published band taxpayer count over the donors per band (PolicyEngine/chronicle#280 lane).", "survey": "Survey of Personal Incomes Public Use Tape 2022-23 and HMRC Income Tax liabilities statistics July 2026 Table 2.5" @@ -1032,7 +1032,7 @@ "student_loan_plan" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "Explore Education Statistics Table 6a, Higher education total", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 and Student Loans Company borrower forecasts for England" @@ -1054,7 +1054,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "WAS Lifetime ISA imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "Office for National Statistics Wealth and Assets Survey, UK Data Service SN 7215, DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-7215-20; local licensed round-8 person and household tabs (interviews April 2020 to March 2022, Great Britain).", "survey": "Wealth and Assets Survey round 8" @@ -1093,7 +1093,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "WAS wealth imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "7345e6e6de0b7aa12a47ddfce5c7d26108f2caad430ca3a0910c2b6fcd706e05", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "Office for National Statistics Wealth and Assets Survey, UK Data Service SN 7215, DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-7215-20; local licensed 2006-22 household tab.", "survey": "Wealth and Assets Survey round 8" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json index 3f72dad2fc..7b1e3265fa 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json @@ -1129,7 +1129,7 @@ "maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage", "max_free_entitlement_hours_used" ], - "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; salts are output variable names. Reported positive receipt anchors are transient and consumed only. The Universal Credit draw's population is the benefit units with a UC claimant or partner (is_uc_claimant) aged 18 or over and under Pension Credit qualifying age (66 for everyone who can reach it in this release), the age and role conditions of policyengine-uk 2.162.3's is_uc_eligible; the engine lockstep test pins it and names the three engine cases not mirrored (16- and 17-year-old claimants under the UC Regs 2013 reg 8 exceptions, mixed-age couples on the Pension Credit route, and from 2.128.0 pension-age families moved onto Universal Credit when their legacy benefit closes, SI 2014/1230 reg 60A). So the contract rate is a share of those units, an anchor outside them stays true, and any other unit is never drawn; a unit with no claimant or partner of that age keeps its reported Housing Benefit, which a claim it cannot make no longer zeroes (#882, microcosm#867, microcosm#1095). The universal childcare flag is nested under the working-parent one. A unit that claims the extended hours claims the universal hours, and any other unit claims them at the contract's universal_childcare rate, the rate conditional on not claiming the extended hours; the extended draw is unchanged. childcare_copy_take_up later re-draws the childcare flags and hours of the support and CGT copies on their own benefit units. A child of DfE age 0 or 1 (its age on 31 December of the fit's model year, the age DfE counts by) in a unit that claims the working-parent hours uses them at its age's contract rate, extended_childcare_age_0_usage or extended_childcare_age_1_usage (DfE registers far fewer of the youngest eligible children than of those aged 2 to 4, and fewer at 9 to 11 months than at age 1); a child that does not gets max_free_entitlement_hours_used 0, so the engine funds it no hours, and every other person keeps the engine's default of 30." + "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; salts are output variable names. Reported positive receipt anchors are transient and consumed only. The Universal Credit draw's population is the benefit units with a UC claimant or partner (is_uc_claimant) aged 18 or over and under Pension Credit qualifying age (66 for everyone who can reach it in this release), the age and role conditions of policyengine-uk 2.162.8's is_uc_eligible; the engine lockstep test pins it and names the three engine cases not mirrored (16- and 17-year-old claimants under the UC Regs 2013 reg 8 exceptions, mixed-age couples on the Pension Credit route, and from 2.128.0 pension-age families moved onto Universal Credit when their legacy benefit closes, SI 2014/1230 reg 60A). So the contract rate is a share of those units, an anchor outside them stays true, and any other unit is never drawn; a unit with no claimant or partner of that age keeps its reported Housing Benefit, which a claim it cannot make no longer zeroes (#882, microcosm#867, microcosm#1095). The universal childcare flag is nested under the working-parent one. A unit that claims the extended hours claims the universal hours, and any other unit claims them at the contract's universal_childcare rate, the rate conditional on not claiming the extended hours; the extended draw is unchanged. childcare_copy_take_up later re-draws the childcare flags and hours of the support and CGT copies on their own benefit units. A child of DfE age 0 or 1 (its age on 31 December of the fit's model year, the age DfE counts by) in a unit that claims the working-parent hours uses them at its age's contract rate, extended_childcare_age_0_usage or extended_childcare_age_1_usage (DfE registers far fewer of the youngest eligible children than of those aged 2 to 4, and fewer at 9 to 11 months than at age 1); a child that does not gets max_free_entitlement_hours_used 0, so the engine funds it no hours, and every other person keeps the engine's default of 30." }, { "stage": "frs_person_draws", @@ -1186,7 +1186,7 @@ "draw": "is_apprentice", "rate_key": "apprentice_stock_19_to_24", "assignment_unit": "person", - "eligibility": "employees (employment_status FT_EMPLOYED or PT_EMPLOYED, from frs_employment) aged 21 to 24: SSCBA 1992 s.9A already zero-rates every earner under 21 and s.9B ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so no other age changes employer NICs, and leaving them False keeps is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged; the flagged keep their age-related minimum_wage too, because policyengine-uk 2.162.7 (policyengine-uk#2683) gives the apprentice rate only under 19 or with is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship, which the build leaves at its default (False), and the stage refuses an engine without that split or the s.9B threshold", + "eligibility": "employees (employment_status FT_EMPLOYED or PT_EMPLOYED, from frs_employment) aged 21 to 24: SSCBA 1992 s.9A already zero-rates every earner under 21 and s.9B ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so no other age changes employer NICs, and leaving them False keeps is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged; the flagged keep their age-related minimum_wage too, because policyengine-uk 2.162.8 (policyengine-uk#2683) gives the apprentice rate only under 19 or with is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship, which the build leaves at its default (False), and the stage refuses an engine without that split or the s.9B threshold", "rate_derivation": "the contract's apprentice_stock_19_to_24 is DfE's England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24, a point-in-time count taken as uniform across those ages and UK-wide; the target is r times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the frame's household weights, and eligible employees are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it (uc_take_up's rule), or all of them when they weigh no more than it; the receipt records the target, the flagged weight, the support bands and the relief the flags imply at the installed engine's Class 1 schedule, and uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices gates them, the relief at or below HMRC's NIC - NS1", "seed": 0 } @@ -6057,7 +6057,7 @@ "frs_benunit_capital", "would_claim_uc" ], - "notes": "Runs after the last universal_credit_reported writer and before CGT cloning. Redraws every SPI benefit unit's capital, since the channel's incomes are SPI draws and the copied FRS answer no longer belongs to the unit (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), from weighted base-FRS units with available capital in cells of UC reporter status by financial investment income band (interest, dividends and other investment income; property income is excluded because TOTCAPB4 counts accounts and assets) by is_uc_couple (two retained FRS claimant/partner roles, independently of legal is_married) by dependent-children band. A cell with fewer than 20 donors widens in the declared coarsening order, and reporter status is never coarsened. It then applies the monotone reported-UC OR refresh. The recorded capitals add property (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), since policyengine-uk 2.162.3 replaces every capital source with a recorded figure of 0 or more and takes it as countable, and TOTCAPB4 has no property. WAS records the property for the household, and each means test counts the claimant's and partner's own capital (UC Regs 2013 reg 18; SPCA 2002 s.5). The household reference person's benefit unit therefore holds all of the household's property, and no other unit records any (María's ruling of 2026-10-12), since that person is the one in whose name the home is owned or rented, the best single reading of the owner. The engine shares household property over every claimant or partner instead, which puts a parent's property on an adult child's claim; a recorded figure consumes its own unit's share, so the engine's shares reach only a unit on the unavailable sentinel, and since policyengine-uk 2.136.1 such a unit takes its share whatever a recording unit beside it holds (the receipt counts any unit left there). The property counts at 90% of its value, market value less 10% for the costs of sale, less the debt secured on it, class by class and floored at zero per class (UC Regs 2013 reg 49(1); SPC Regs 2002 reg 19), as policyengine-uk values Universal Credit property capital. The was_wealth stage draws the debt on other residential and on non-residential property (microcosm#1095), and owned land carries none, as the engine has no input for it (pe-uk#1969). Universal Credit counts other residential and non-residential property, and Pension Credit counts those and owned land. A unit that reports Universal Credit keeps its receipt and records the carrier alone for Universal Credit, since DWP assessed its capital to pay it and the property is imputed without that receipt. frs_benunit_capital stays the financial carrier, and its unavailable sentinel -1 passes through to both. Both recorded figures project to later years by GDP per head, as financial capital does, while policyengine-uk 2.139.1 projects other residential property by house prices, so the other residential property in a recorded figure grows faster than the engine's own projection of it; by the OBR indices the engine carries, it grows 1.5% faster by 2025 and 2.0% by 2026 from a 2024 base." + "notes": "Runs after the last universal_credit_reported writer and before CGT cloning. Redraws every SPI benefit unit's capital, since the channel's incomes are SPI draws and the copied FRS answer no longer belongs to the unit (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), from weighted base-FRS units with available capital in cells of UC reporter status by financial investment income band (interest, dividends and other investment income; property income is excluded because TOTCAPB4 counts accounts and assets) by is_uc_couple (two retained FRS claimant/partner roles, independently of legal is_married) by dependent-children band. A cell with fewer than 20 donors widens in the declared coarsening order, and reporter status is never coarsened. It then applies the monotone reported-UC OR refresh. The recorded capitals add property (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), since policyengine-uk 2.162.8 replaces every capital source with a recorded figure of 0 or more and takes it as countable, and TOTCAPB4 has no property. WAS records the property for the household, and each means test counts the claimant's and partner's own capital (UC Regs 2013 reg 18; SPCA 2002 s.5). The household reference person's benefit unit therefore holds all of the household's property, and no other unit records any (María's ruling of 2026-10-12), since that person is the one in whose name the home is owned or rented, the best single reading of the owner. The engine shares household property over every claimant or partner instead, which puts a parent's property on an adult child's claim; a recorded figure consumes its own unit's share, so the engine's shares reach only a unit on the unavailable sentinel, and since policyengine-uk 2.136.1 such a unit takes its share whatever a recording unit beside it holds (the receipt counts any unit left there). The property counts at 90% of its value, market value less 10% for the costs of sale, less the debt secured on it, class by class and floored at zero per class (UC Regs 2013 reg 49(1); SPC Regs 2002 reg 19), as policyengine-uk values Universal Credit property capital. The was_wealth stage draws the debt on other residential and on non-residential property (microcosm#1095), and owned land carries none, as the engine has no input for it (pe-uk#1969). Universal Credit counts other residential and non-residential property, and Pension Credit counts those and owned land. A unit that reports Universal Credit keeps its receipt and records the carrier alone for Universal Credit, since DWP assessed its capital to pay it and the property is imputed without that receipt. frs_benunit_capital stays the financial carrier, and its unavailable sentinel -1 passes through to both. Both recorded figures project to later years by GDP per head, as financial capital does, while policyengine-uk 2.139.1 projects other residential property by house prices, so the other residential property in a recorded figure grows faster than the engine's own projection of it; by the OBR indices the engine carries, it grows 1.5% faster by 2025 and 2.0% by 2026 from a 2024 base." }, { "stage": "uc_take_up", @@ -6907,7 +6907,7 @@ { "role": "policy_parameters", "kind": "versioned_parameter_tree", - "dependency": "policyengine-uk>=2.162.3 via microcosm-build[uk]", + "dependency": "policyengine-uk>=2.162.8 via microcosm-build[uk]", "parameters": [ "gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount" ], @@ -6988,7 +6988,7 @@ { "role": "policy_parameters", "kind": "versioned_parameter_tree", - "dependency": "policyengine-uk>=2.162.3 via microcosm-build[uk]", + "dependency": "policyengine-uk>=2.162.8 via microcosm-build[uk]", "parameters": [ "gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount", "gov.hmrc.cgt.badr.lifetime_limit", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml index 301503972d..90b98bea6e 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml @@ -1029,7 +1029,7 @@ stages: nonnegative_outputs: - maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage - max_free_entitlement_hours_used - notes: Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; salts are output variable names. Reported positive receipt anchors are transient and consumed only. The Universal Credit draw's population is the benefit units with a UC claimant or partner (is_uc_claimant) aged 18 or over and under Pension Credit qualifying age (66 for everyone who can reach it in this release), the age and role conditions of policyengine-uk 2.162.3's is_uc_eligible; the engine lockstep test pins it and names the three engine cases not mirrored (16- and 17-year-old claimants under the UC Regs 2013 reg 8 exceptions, mixed-age couples on the Pension Credit route, and from 2.128.0 pension-age families moved onto Universal Credit when their legacy benefit closes, SI 2014/1230 reg 60A). So the contract rate is a share of those units, an anchor outside them stays true, and any other unit is never drawn; a unit with no claimant or partner of that age keeps its reported Housing Benefit, which a claim it cannot make no longer zeroes (#882, microcosm#867, microcosm#1095). The universal childcare flag is nested under the working-parent one. A unit that claims the extended hours claims the universal hours, and any other unit claims them at the contract's universal_childcare rate, the rate conditional on not claiming the extended hours; the extended draw is unchanged. childcare_copy_take_up later re-draws the childcare flags and hours of the support and CGT copies on their own benefit units. A child of DfE age 0 or 1 (its age on 31 December of the fit's model year, the age DfE counts by) in a unit that claims the working-parent hours uses them at its age's contract rate, extended_childcare_age_0_usage or extended_childcare_age_1_usage (DfE registers far fewer of the youngest eligible children than of those aged 2 to 4, and fewer at 9 to 11 months than at age 1); a child that does not gets max_free_entitlement_hours_used 0, so the engine funds it no hours, and every other person keeps the engine's default of 30. + notes: Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; salts are output variable names. Reported positive receipt anchors are transient and consumed only. The Universal Credit draw's population is the benefit units with a UC claimant or partner (is_uc_claimant) aged 18 or over and under Pension Credit qualifying age (66 for everyone who can reach it in this release), the age and role conditions of policyengine-uk 2.162.8's is_uc_eligible; the engine lockstep test pins it and names the three engine cases not mirrored (16- and 17-year-old claimants under the UC Regs 2013 reg 8 exceptions, mixed-age couples on the Pension Credit route, and from 2.128.0 pension-age families moved onto Universal Credit when their legacy benefit closes, SI 2014/1230 reg 60A). So the contract rate is a share of those units, an anchor outside them stays true, and any other unit is never drawn; a unit with no claimant or partner of that age keeps its reported Housing Benefit, which a claim it cannot make no longer zeroes (#882, microcosm#867, microcosm#1095). The universal childcare flag is nested under the working-parent one. A unit that claims the extended hours claims the universal hours, and any other unit claims them at the contract's universal_childcare rate, the rate conditional on not claiming the extended hours; the extended draw is unchanged. childcare_copy_take_up later re-draws the childcare flags and hours of the support and CGT copies on their own benefit units. A child of DfE age 0 or 1 (its age on 31 December of the fit's model year, the age DfE counts by) in a unit that claims the working-parent hours uses them at its age's contract rate, extended_childcare_age_0_usage or extended_childcare_age_1_usage (DfE registers far fewer of the youngest eligible children than of those aged 2 to 4, and fewer at 9 to 11 months than at age 1); a child that does not gets max_free_entitlement_hours_used 0, so the engine funds it no hours, and every other person keeps the engine's default of 30. - stage: frs_person_draws survey: Family Resources Survey 2024-25 source: Sourced UK take-up contract rates and identity-keyed deterministic draws. @@ -1067,7 +1067,7 @@ stages: draw: is_apprentice rate_key: apprentice_stock_19_to_24 assignment_unit: person - eligibility: 'employees (employment_status FT_EMPLOYED or PT_EMPLOYED, from frs_employment) aged 21 to 24: SSCBA 1992 s.9A already zero-rates every earner under 21 and s.9B ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so no other age changes employer NICs, and leaving them False keeps is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged; the flagged keep their age-related minimum_wage too, because policyengine-uk 2.162.7 (policyengine-uk#2683) gives the apprentice rate only under 19 or with is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship, which the build leaves at its default (False), and the stage refuses an engine without that split or the s.9B threshold' + eligibility: 'employees (employment_status FT_EMPLOYED or PT_EMPLOYED, from frs_employment) aged 21 to 24: SSCBA 1992 s.9A already zero-rates every earner under 21 and s.9B ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so no other age changes employer NICs, and leaving them False keeps is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged; the flagged keep their age-related minimum_wage too, because policyengine-uk 2.162.8 (policyengine-uk#2683) gives the apprentice rate only under 19 or with is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship, which the build leaves at its default (False), and the stage refuses an engine without that split or the s.9B threshold' rate_derivation: 'the contract''s apprentice_stock_19_to_24 is DfE''s England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24, a point-in-time count taken as uniform across those ages and UK-wide; the target is r times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the frame''s household weights, and eligible employees are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it (uc_take_up''s rule), or all of them when they weigh no more than it; the receipt records the target, the flagged weight, the support bands and the relief the flags imply at the installed engine''s Class 1 schedule, and uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices gates them, the relief at or below HMRC''s NIC - NS1' seed: 0 outputs: @@ -4890,7 +4890,7 @@ stages: rewrites: - frs_benunit_capital - would_claim_uc - notes: Runs after the last universal_credit_reported writer and before CGT cloning. Redraws every SPI benefit unit's capital, since the channel's incomes are SPI draws and the copied FRS answer no longer belongs to the unit (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), from weighted base-FRS units with available capital in cells of UC reporter status by financial investment income band (interest, dividends and other investment income; property income is excluded because TOTCAPB4 counts accounts and assets) by is_uc_couple (two retained FRS claimant/partner roles, independently of legal is_married) by dependent-children band. A cell with fewer than 20 donors widens in the declared coarsening order, and reporter status is never coarsened. It then applies the monotone reported-UC OR refresh. The recorded capitals add property (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), since policyengine-uk 2.162.3 replaces every capital source with a recorded figure of 0 or more and takes it as countable, and TOTCAPB4 has no property. WAS records the property for the household, and each means test counts the claimant's and partner's own capital (UC Regs 2013 reg 18; SPCA 2002 s.5). The household reference person's benefit unit therefore holds all of the household's property, and no other unit records any (María's ruling of 2026-10-12), since that person is the one in whose name the home is owned or rented, the best single reading of the owner. The engine shares household property over every claimant or partner instead, which puts a parent's property on an adult child's claim; a recorded figure consumes its own unit's share, so the engine's shares reach only a unit on the unavailable sentinel, and since policyengine-uk 2.136.1 such a unit takes its share whatever a recording unit beside it holds (the receipt counts any unit left there). The property counts at 90% of its value, market value less 10% for the costs of sale, less the debt secured on it, class by class and floored at zero per class (UC Regs 2013 reg 49(1); SPC Regs 2002 reg 19), as policyengine-uk values Universal Credit property capital. The was_wealth stage draws the debt on other residential and on non-residential property (microcosm#1095), and owned land carries none, as the engine has no input for it (pe-uk#1969). Universal Credit counts other residential and non-residential property, and Pension Credit counts those and owned land. A unit that reports Universal Credit keeps its receipt and records the carrier alone for Universal Credit, since DWP assessed its capital to pay it and the property is imputed without that receipt. frs_benunit_capital stays the financial carrier, and its unavailable sentinel -1 passes through to both. Both recorded figures project to later years by GDP per head, as financial capital does, while policyengine-uk 2.139.1 projects other residential property by house prices, so the other residential property in a recorded figure grows faster than the engine's own projection of it; by the OBR indices the engine carries, it grows 1.5% faster by 2025 and 2.0% by 2026 from a 2024 base. + notes: Runs after the last universal_credit_reported writer and before CGT cloning. Redraws every SPI benefit unit's capital, since the channel's incomes are SPI draws and the copied FRS answer no longer belongs to the unit (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), from weighted base-FRS units with available capital in cells of UC reporter status by financial investment income band (interest, dividends and other investment income; property income is excluded because TOTCAPB4 counts accounts and assets) by is_uc_couple (two retained FRS claimant/partner roles, independently of legal is_married) by dependent-children band. A cell with fewer than 20 donors widens in the declared coarsening order, and reporter status is never coarsened. It then applies the monotone reported-UC OR refresh. The recorded capitals add property (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), since policyengine-uk 2.162.8 replaces every capital source with a recorded figure of 0 or more and takes it as countable, and TOTCAPB4 has no property. WAS records the property for the household, and each means test counts the claimant's and partner's own capital (UC Regs 2013 reg 18; SPCA 2002 s.5). The household reference person's benefit unit therefore holds all of the household's property, and no other unit records any (María's ruling of 2026-10-12), since that person is the one in whose name the home is owned or rented, the best single reading of the owner. The engine shares household property over every claimant or partner instead, which puts a parent's property on an adult child's claim; a recorded figure consumes its own unit's share, so the engine's shares reach only a unit on the unavailable sentinel, and since policyengine-uk 2.136.1 such a unit takes its share whatever a recording unit beside it holds (the receipt counts any unit left there). The property counts at 90% of its value, market value less 10% for the costs of sale, less the debt secured on it, class by class and floored at zero per class (UC Regs 2013 reg 49(1); SPC Regs 2002 reg 19), as policyengine-uk values Universal Credit property capital. The was_wealth stage draws the debt on other residential and on non-residential property (microcosm#1095), and owned land carries none, as the engine has no input for it (pe-uk#1969). Universal Credit counts other residential and non-residential property, and Pension Credit counts those and owned land. A unit that reports Universal Credit keeps its receipt and records the carrier alone for Universal Credit, since DWP assessed its capital to pay it and the property is imputed without that receipt. frs_benunit_capital stays the financial carrier, and its unavailable sentinel -1 passes through to both. Both recorded figures project to later years by GDP per head, as financial capital does, while policyengine-uk 2.139.1 projects other residential property by house prices, so the other residential property in a recorded figure grows faster than the engine's own projection of it; by the OBR indices the engine carries, it grows 1.5% faster by 2025 and 2.0% by 2026 from a 2024 base. - stage: uc_take_up survey: Family Resources Survey 2024-25 source: 'DWP Stat-Xplore, Households on Universal Credit by family type and monthly award amount band, April to December 2025, applied to PolicyEngine-UK pre-take-up Universal Credit awards after the SPI income chain and UC capital coherence.' @@ -5554,7 +5554,7 @@ stages: artifacts: - role: policy_parameters kind: versioned_parameter_tree - dependency: policyengine-uk>=2.162.3 via microcosm-build[uk] + dependency: policyengine-uk>=2.162.8 via microcosm-build[uk] parameters: - gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount instant_rule: raw dated parameter files evaluated at 1 June of the build period's tax year @@ -5619,7 +5619,7 @@ stages: artifacts: - role: policy_parameters kind: versioned_parameter_tree - dependency: policyengine-uk>=2.162.3 via microcosm-build[uk] + dependency: policyengine-uk>=2.162.8 via microcosm-build[uk] parameters: - gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount - gov.hmrc.cgt.badr.lifetime_limit diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py index bbfa4c1345..4aa6737b1b 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py @@ -21,10 +21,10 @@ them. The flag is read twice in policyengine-uk: by the s.9B threshold (from 2.160.0, -policyengine-uk#2505) and by the apprentice minimum wage. Before 2.162.7 the +policyengine-uk#2505) and by the apprentice minimum wage. Before 2.162.8 the apprentice rate applied to every flagged person, so a flagged 21 to 24-year-old lost the adult minimum wage, which moves the Tax-Free Childcare, extended -childcare and Childcare Offer for Wales income tests. From 2.162.7 +childcare and Childcare Offer for Wales income tests. From 2.162.8 (policyengine-uk#2683) the rate applies only under 19 or with ``is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship``, which the build leaves at its default (False), so the flagged keep their age-related minimum wage. The stage refuses @@ -415,7 +415,7 @@ def apprentice_relief_schedule(system, period) -> dict[str, float | int] | None: Refuses an engine that would misread ``is_apprentice``: one without the s.9B threshold (policyengine-uk before 2.160.0) or without the minimum - wage's split from the flag (before 2.162.7, policyengine-uk#2683), which + wage's split from the flag (before 2.162.8, policyengine-uk#2683), which would give every flagged employee the apprentice minimum wage. The values are the ones the engine charges in the stage's year, at its start, as a year's ``parameters(period)`` reads them; weekly thresholds are annualized @@ -429,7 +429,7 @@ def apprentice_relief_schedule(system, period) -> dict[str, float | int] | None: ] if missing: raise ValueError( - f"{APPRENTICE_OUTPUT} needs policyengine-uk 2.162.7 or later, which " + f"{APPRENTICE_OUTPUT} needs policyengine-uk 2.162.8 or later, which " "gives the apprentice minimum wage only under 19 or in the first year " f"(policyengine-uk#2683); the installed engine lacks {missing}." ) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_take_up.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_take_up.py index 4e44634e33..553228e9ce 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_take_up.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_take_up.py @@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ for output in (*FRS_TAKE_UP_OUTPUT_COLUMNS, *FRS_TAKE_UP_PERSON_OUTPUT_COLUMNS) } # Universal Credit is claimable only by a benefit unit whose claimant or -# partner meets its age conditions: policyengine-uk 2.162.3's ``is_uc_eligible`` +# partner meets its age conditions: policyengine-uk 2.162.8's ``is_uc_eligible`` # (capital aside) needs a single or joint claimant, taken from # ``is_uc_claimant``, who meets UC's minimum age and has not reached Pension # Credit qualifying age. The draw's population is therefore the units with a diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/hmrc_uprating.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/hmrc_uprating.py index a44bf9c67b..2514ac4295 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/hmrc_uprating.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/hmrc_uprating.py @@ -437,8 +437,8 @@ def assert_installed_engine_is_pinned() -> str: jobs and the H2 parity run them on the lock. Three things must hold. The distribution's version is the pinned one, - exactly, so a post-release or a local build of it (``2.162.3.post1``, - ``2.162.3+local``) is refused. ``policyengine_uk`` imports from that + exactly, so a post-release or a local build of it (``2.162.8.post1``, + ``2.162.8+local``) is refused. ``policyengine_uk`` imports from that distribution's own files, so a copy earlier on ``sys.path`` or an editable install is refused. And its ``__init__.py`` matches the distribution's RECORD, so a stale record beside other files is refused where the files diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/uc_capital_coherence.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/uc_capital_coherence.py index 8347c8c911..52727b1d7f 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/uc_capital_coherence.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/uc_capital_coherence.py @@ -76,7 +76,7 @@ _UC_CAPITAL_LEVELS = ("exact_cell", *UC_CAPITAL_COARSENING) #: The UC capital limits the receipt measures the redraw against. _UC_CAPITAL_RECEIPT_LIMITS = (6_000.0, 16_000.0) -#: policyengine-uk 2.162.3 counts these household property values as Universal +#: policyengine-uk 2.162.8 counts these household property values as Universal #: Credit capital (``property_sources`` under #: ``gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.capital``, at 90% of value less any #: secured debt since 2.136.1) and as Pension Credit capital (the ``sources`` diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/worker_identity.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/worker_identity.py index 078b209269..ec87cdeda2 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/worker_identity.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/worker_identity.py @@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ PRIMARY_QRF_WORKER_MODULE = "microcosm.build.us_runtime.puf_qrf_worker" PRIMARY_QRF_INTERPRETER_PLACEHOLDER = "{python_interpreter}" APPROVED_UV_LOCK_SHA256 = ( - "08e2ce606e03b83b4b038890afc943500eb3e75a3875a5395d29a473d2270b13" + "11f43fd15e9b69d8db244319de8df24ee390e0ad1dddbddb0ee4edae72b0204f" ) LEGACY_CAMPAIGN_UV_LOCK_SHA256 = ( "27f47e385cfa35e2644a37410d1804b361ad9aee123577551c8421547bda65ee" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_dfe_spring_term.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_dfe_spring_term.py index b51b6640a7..9165fb7194 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_dfe_spring_term.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_dfe_spring_term.py @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ -"""The DfE spring-term measures on hand-built households (policyengine-uk 2.162.3).""" +"""The DfE spring-term measures on hand-built households (policyengine-uk 2.162.8).""" from __future__ import annotations diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_engine_core_pins.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_engine_core_pins.py index ee0648d25f..7b8d87f322 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_engine_core_pins.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_engine_core_pins.py @@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ #: policyengine-core its own floor brings. UK_ENGINE = { "policyengine-core": "3.33.3", - "policyengine-uk": "2.162.3", + "policyengine-uk": "2.162.8", } ENGINE_PACKAGES = ("microcosm-build", "microcosm-data", "microcosm-frame") diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_stochastic.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_stochastic.py index 681a51f7f6..1eef6fd723 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_stochastic.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_stochastic.py @@ -221,7 +221,7 @@ def test_uc_take_up_population_excludes_units_without_a_working_age_adult() -> N def test_uc_take_up_population_needs_a_claimant_or_partner_of_working_age() -> None: """A working-age dependant does not bring a unit into the UC population. - policyengine-uk 2.162.3's is_uc_eligible reads the age of the unit's UC + policyengine-uk 2.162.8's is_uc_eligible reads the age of the unit's UC claimant or partner (is_uc_claimant), not of any adult: a pensioner unit with an 18-year-old dependant cannot claim Universal Credit. """ diff --git a/packages/microcosm-data/pyproject.toml b/packages/microcosm-data/pyproject.toml index 456670774f..c0c69eccba 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-data/pyproject.toml +++ b/packages/microcosm-data/pyproject.toml @@ -37,7 +37,7 @@ us = ["policyengine-us>=2.2.1,<3", "policyengine-core==3.32.5"] # The UK artifact lives in a PRIVATE repo (UK Data Service licence): loads # require an authenticated HF token with access. The loader surfaces the # 401 with that explanation rather than retrying. -uk = ["policyengine-uk>=2.162.3"] +uk = ["policyengine-uk>=2.162.8"] [project.urls] Homepage = "https://microcosm.institute" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-frame/pyproject.toml b/packages/microcosm-frame/pyproject.toml index 409425066d..7cc953c3bc 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-frame/pyproject.toml +++ b/packages/microcosm-frame/pyproject.toml @@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ policyengine = [ "policyengine-core==3.32.5", "microunit>=0.1.0", ] -uk = ["policyengine-uk>=2.162.3"] +uk = ["policyengine-uk>=2.162.8"] # The Axiom adapter's PyPI-resolvable dependencies. The engine itself # (axiom-rules-engine + its dense native extension) is not on PyPI yet and # installs from a checkout; see microcosm/frame/adapters/axiom.py. diff --git a/packages/microcosm-frame/src/microcosm/frame/adapters/policyengine_uk_concepts.py b/packages/microcosm-frame/src/microcosm/frame/adapters/policyengine_uk_concepts.py index 843f1c625e..5a920f67f9 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-frame/src/microcosm/frame/adapters/policyengine_uk_concepts.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-frame/src/microcosm/frame/adapters/policyengine_uk_concepts.py @@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # # Which PolicyEngine-UK inputs each engine-neutral concept feeds -# (microcosm.frame.concepts), reviewed against policyengine-uk 2.162.3. Every +# (microcosm.frame.concepts), reviewed against policyengine-uk 2.162.8. Every # target is a pure input (in ``PolicyEngineUKEngine.variables``). The UK # loader also accepts some formula-owned variables as overrides # (``employment_income``, ``state_pension_reported``, ``is_household_head``); @@ -399,6 +399,18 @@ "Lifetime ISA withdrawals they change nothing, so they stay false " "(microcosm#1095; for María's signature).", ), + "is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship": ( + "Whether an apprentice is in the first 12 months of the apprenticeship " + "(policyengine-uk 2.162.8, policyengine-uk#2683): the apprentice " + "minimum wage applies under 19 or in that first year. The build flags " + "apprentices aged 21 to 24 only (frs_person_draws) and records no " + "apprenticeship start, so the input stays false and every flagged " + "apprentice takes the age-related minimum wage. A first-year apprentice " + "aged 21 to 24 is then held to the higher minimum income in the " + "Tax-Free Childcare, extended childcare and Childcare Offer for Wales " + "income tests, so those tests are slightly harder for them to pass; " + "employer NICs do not read it (microcosm#1373; for María's signature)." + ), } @@ -423,7 +435,7 @@ def _uk_take_up(program: str, entity: str) -> InputBinding: POLICYENGINE_UK_CONCEPT_MAPPING = ConceptMapping( engine="policyengine-uk", - engine_version="2.162.3", + engine_version="2.162.8", entity_correspondence={"person": "person", "household": "household"}, input_declaration=InputDeclaration.ENGINE_TYPED, bindings=( diff --git a/packages/microcosm-frame/tests/golden/concept-coverage/policyengine-uk.json b/packages/microcosm-frame/tests/golden/concept-coverage/policyengine-uk.json index bc72b0314a..b6576e5fe1 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-frame/tests/golden/concept-coverage/policyengine-uk.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-frame/tests/golden/concept-coverage/policyengine-uk.json @@ -405,8 +405,8 @@ } ], "engine": "policyengine-uk", - "engine_version": "2.162.3", - "input_count": 356, + "engine_version": "2.162.8", + "input_count": 357, "schema_sha256": "5a55669d0447a686692911a6327ae298f19741dde29559f2654a75807878a141", "structural_inputs": [ { @@ -1003,6 +1003,10 @@ "entity": "person", "name": "is_in_approved_training" }, + { + "entity": "person", + "name": "is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship" + }, { "entity": "person", "name": "is_looked_after_by_local_authority" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json index 7540cb64e7..bb51613849 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json @@ -288,7 +288,7 @@ "cgt_residential_split": { "artifacts": [ { - "dependency": "policyengine-uk>=2.162.3 via microcosm-build[uk]", + "dependency": "policyengine-uk>=2.162.8 via microcosm-build[uk]", "dependency_discipline": "deferred inside uk_cgt_policy_parameters; the base package never imports policyengine-uk at import time", "instant_rule": "raw dated parameter files evaluated at 1 June of the build period's tax year", "kind": "versioned_parameter_tree", @@ -1813,7 +1813,7 @@ "attends_private_school_random_draw", "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" ], - "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced.", + "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced. is_apprentice has no FRS source (no apprenticeship variable in the 2022-23 to 2024-25 adult tables; TRAIN2, NI3TRAIN and TRAINEE code government employment schemes) and is drawn to DfE's point-in-time rate for employees aged 21 to 24 only.", "operations": [ { "draw": "would_claim_marriage_allowance", @@ -1849,13 +1849,24 @@ "kind": "assign_period_constant", "output": "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", "period_source": "build_year" + }, + { + "assignment_unit": "person", + "draw": "is_apprentice", + "eligibility": "employees (employment_status FT_EMPLOYED or PT_EMPLOYED, from frs_employment) aged 21 to 24: SSCBA 1992 s.9A already zero-rates every earner under 21 and s.9B ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so no other age changes employer NICs, and leaving them False keeps is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged; the flagged keep their age-related minimum_wage too, because policyengine-uk 2.162.8 (policyengine-uk#2683) gives the apprentice rate only under 19 or with is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship, which the build leaves at its default (False), and the stage refuses an engine without that split or the s.9B threshold", + "kind": "assign_binary_from_rate", + "output": "is_apprentice", + "rate_derivation": "the contract's apprentice_stock_19_to_24 is DfE's England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24, a point-in-time count taken as uniform across those ages and UK-wide; the target is r times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the frame's household weights, and eligible employees are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it (uc_take_up's rule), or all of them when they weigh no more than it; the receipt records the target, the flagged weight, the support bands and the relief the flags imply at the installed engine's Class 1 schedule, and uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices gates them, the relief at or below HMRC's NIC - NS1", + "rate_key": "apprentice_stock_19_to_24", + "seed": 0 } ], "outputs": [ "would_claim_marriage_allowance", "would_claim_scp", "attends_private_school_random_draw", - "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" + "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", + "is_apprentice" ], "rewrites": [], "source": "Sourced UK take-up contract rates and identity-keyed deterministic draws.", @@ -2447,7 +2458,7 @@ "maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage", "max_free_entitlement_hours_used" ], - "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; salts are output variable names. Reported positive receipt anchors are transient and consumed only. The Universal Credit draw's population is the benefit units with a UC claimant or partner (is_uc_claimant) aged 18 or over and under Pension Credit qualifying age (66 for everyone who can reach it in this release), the age and role conditions of policyengine-uk 2.162.3's is_uc_eligible; the engine lockstep test pins it and names the three engine cases not mirrored (16- and 17-year-old claimants under the UC Regs 2013 reg 8 exceptions, mixed-age couples on the Pension Credit route, and from 2.128.0 pension-age families moved onto Universal Credit when their legacy benefit closes, SI 2014/1230 reg 60A). So the contract rate is a share of those units, an anchor outside them stays true, and any other unit is never drawn; a unit with no claimant or partner of that age keeps its reported Housing Benefit, which a claim it cannot make no longer zeroes (#882, microcosm#867, microcosm#1095). The universal childcare flag is nested under the working-parent one. A unit that claims the extended hours claims the universal hours, and any other unit claims them at the contract's universal_childcare rate, the rate conditional on not claiming the extended hours; the extended draw is unchanged. childcare_copy_take_up later re-draws the childcare flags and hours of the support and CGT copies on their own benefit units. A child of DfE age 0 or 1 (its age on 31 December of the fit's model year, the age DfE counts by) in a unit that claims the working-parent hours uses them at its age's contract rate, extended_childcare_age_0_usage or extended_childcare_age_1_usage (DfE registers far fewer of the youngest eligible children than of those aged 2 to 4, and fewer at 9 to 11 months than at age 1); a child that does not gets max_free_entitlement_hours_used 0, so the engine funds it no hours, and every other person keeps the engine's default of 30.", + "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; salts are output variable names. Reported positive receipt anchors are transient and consumed only. The Universal Credit draw's population is the benefit units with a UC claimant or partner (is_uc_claimant) aged 18 or over and under Pension Credit qualifying age (66 for everyone who can reach it in this release), the age and role conditions of policyengine-uk 2.162.8's is_uc_eligible; the engine lockstep test pins it and names the three engine cases not mirrored (16- and 17-year-old claimants under the UC Regs 2013 reg 8 exceptions, mixed-age couples on the Pension Credit route, and from 2.128.0 pension-age families moved onto Universal Credit when their legacy benefit closes, SI 2014/1230 reg 60A). So the contract rate is a share of those units, an anchor outside them stays true, and any other unit is never drawn; a unit with no claimant or partner of that age keeps its reported Housing Benefit, which a claim it cannot make no longer zeroes (#882, microcosm#867, microcosm#1095). The universal childcare flag is nested under the working-parent one. A unit that claims the extended hours claims the universal hours, and any other unit claims them at the contract's universal_childcare rate, the rate conditional on not claiming the extended hours; the extended draw is unchanged. childcare_copy_take_up later re-draws the childcare flags and hours of the support and CGT copies on their own benefit units. A child of DfE age 0 or 1 (its age on 31 December of the fit's model year, the age DfE counts by) in a unit that claims the working-parent hours uses them at its age's contract rate, extended_childcare_age_0_usage or extended_childcare_age_1_usage (DfE registers far fewer of the youngest eligible children than of those aged 2 to 4, and fewer at 9 to 11 months than at age 1); a child that does not gets max_free_entitlement_hours_used 0, so the engine funds it no hours, and every other person keeps the engine's default of 30.", "operations": [ { "aggregates": { @@ -2628,7 +2639,7 @@ "hmrc_cgt_asset_type_spine": { "artifacts": [ { - "dependency": "policyengine-uk>=2.162.3 via microcosm-build[uk]", + "dependency": "policyengine-uk>=2.162.8 via microcosm-build[uk]", "dependency_discipline": "deferred inside uk_cgt_policy_parameters and uk_cgt_badr_parameters; the base package never imports policyengine-uk at import time", "instant_rule": "raw dated parameter files evaluated at 1 June of the build period's tax year", "kind": "versioned_parameter_tree", @@ -6593,7 +6604,7 @@ "artifacts": [], "grain": "benunit", "nonnegative_outputs": [], - "notes": "Runs after the last universal_credit_reported writer and before CGT cloning. Redraws every SPI benefit unit's capital, since the channel's incomes are SPI draws and the copied FRS answer no longer belongs to the unit (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), from weighted base-FRS units with available capital in cells of UC reporter status by financial investment income band (interest, dividends and other investment income; property income is excluded because TOTCAPB4 counts accounts and assets) by is_uc_couple (two retained FRS claimant/partner roles, independently of legal is_married) by dependent-children band. A cell with fewer than 20 donors widens in the declared coarsening order, and reporter status is never coarsened. It then applies the monotone reported-UC OR refresh. The recorded capitals add property (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), since policyengine-uk 2.162.3 replaces every capital source with a recorded figure of 0 or more and takes it as countable, and TOTCAPB4 has no property. WAS records the property for the household, and each means test counts the claimant's and partner's own capital (UC Regs 2013 reg 18; SPCA 2002 s.5). The household reference person's benefit unit therefore holds all of the household's property, and no other unit records any (Mar\u00eda's ruling of 2026-10-12), since that person is the one in whose name the home is owned or rented, the best single reading of the owner. The engine shares household property over every claimant or partner instead, which puts a parent's property on an adult child's claim; a recorded figure consumes its own unit's share, so the engine's shares reach only a unit on the unavailable sentinel, and since policyengine-uk 2.136.1 such a unit takes its share whatever a recording unit beside it holds (the receipt counts any unit left there). The property counts at 90% of its value, market value less 10% for the costs of sale, less the debt secured on it, class by class and floored at zero per class (UC Regs 2013 reg 49(1); SPC Regs 2002 reg 19), as policyengine-uk values Universal Credit property capital. The was_wealth stage draws the debt on other residential and on non-residential property (microcosm#1095), and owned land carries none, as the engine has no input for it (pe-uk#1969). Universal Credit counts other residential and non-residential property, and Pension Credit counts those and owned land. A unit that reports Universal Credit keeps its receipt and records the carrier alone for Universal Credit, since DWP assessed its capital to pay it and the property is imputed without that receipt. frs_benunit_capital stays the financial carrier, and its unavailable sentinel -1 passes through to both. Both recorded figures project to later years by GDP per head, as financial capital does, while policyengine-uk 2.139.1 projects other residential property by house prices, so the other residential property in a recorded figure grows faster than the engine's own projection of it; by the OBR indices the engine carries, it grows 1.5% faster by 2025 and 2.0% by 2026 from a 2024 base.", + "notes": "Runs after the last universal_credit_reported writer and before CGT cloning. Redraws every SPI benefit unit's capital, since the channel's incomes are SPI draws and the copied FRS answer no longer belongs to the unit (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), from weighted base-FRS units with available capital in cells of UC reporter status by financial investment income band (interest, dividends and other investment income; property income is excluded because TOTCAPB4 counts accounts and assets) by is_uc_couple (two retained FRS claimant/partner roles, independently of legal is_married) by dependent-children band. A cell with fewer than 20 donors widens in the declared coarsening order, and reporter status is never coarsened. It then applies the monotone reported-UC OR refresh. The recorded capitals add property (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), since policyengine-uk 2.162.8 replaces every capital source with a recorded figure of 0 or more and takes it as countable, and TOTCAPB4 has no property. WAS records the property for the household, and each means test counts the claimant's and partner's own capital (UC Regs 2013 reg 18; SPCA 2002 s.5). The household reference person's benefit unit therefore holds all of the household's property, and no other unit records any (Mar\u00eda's ruling of 2026-10-12), since that person is the one in whose name the home is owned or rented, the best single reading of the owner. The engine shares household property over every claimant or partner instead, which puts a parent's property on an adult child's claim; a recorded figure consumes its own unit's share, so the engine's shares reach only a unit on the unavailable sentinel, and since policyengine-uk 2.136.1 such a unit takes its share whatever a recording unit beside it holds (the receipt counts any unit left there). The property counts at 90% of its value, market value less 10% for the costs of sale, less the debt secured on it, class by class and floored at zero per class (UC Regs 2013 reg 49(1); SPC Regs 2002 reg 19), as policyengine-uk values Universal Credit property capital. The was_wealth stage draws the debt on other residential and on non-residential property (microcosm#1095), and owned land carries none, as the engine has no input for it (pe-uk#1969). Universal Credit counts other residential and non-residential property, and Pension Credit counts those and owned land. A unit that reports Universal Credit keeps its receipt and records the carrier alone for Universal Credit, since DWP assessed its capital to pay it and the property is imputed without that receipt. frs_benunit_capital stays the financial carrier, and its unavailable sentinel -1 passes through to both. Both recorded figures project to later years by GDP per head, as financial capital does, while policyengine-uk 2.139.1 projects other residential property by house prices, so the other residential property in a recorded figure grows faster than the engine's own projection of it; by the OBR indices the engine carries, it grows 1.5% faster by 2025 and 2.0% by 2026 from a 2024 base.", "operations": [ { "aggregates": { diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json index 6a0581f884..acca78673e 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json @@ -1 +1 @@ -{"country":"uk","nodes":[{"artifact_outputs":[{"name":"stage_evidence","type":{"name":"microcosm.stage-evidence","schema_version":1}}],"base":null,"citation":"","description":"Load the source-bound UK FRS root 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access_fund","education_grants","healthy_start_vouchers","free_school_breakfasts","free_school_fruit_veg","free_school_meals","council_tax_benefit_reported","maintenance_expenses","childcare_expenses","personal_pension_contributions","employee_pension_contributions","pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice","salary_sacrifice_reported","salary_sacrifice_asked","frs_bonus_amount","child_benefit_reported","income_support_reported","housing_benefit_reported","attendance_allowance_reported","dla_sc_reported","dla_m_reported","iidb_reported","carers_allowance_reported","would_claim_carers_allowance","sda_reported","afcs_reported","ssmg_reported","pension_credit_reported","child_tax_credit_reported","working_tax_credit_reported","state_pension_reported","winter_fuel_allowance_reported","incapacity_benefit_reported","universal_credit_reported","pip_m_reported","pip_dl_reported","jsa_contrib_reported","jsa_income_reported","esa_contrib_reported","esa_income_reported","esa_includes_support_component","bsp_reported","war_widows_pension_reported","widowed_parents_allowance_reported","relationship_to_head","ons_family_role","ons_family_index","is_looked_after_by_local_authority","employment_status","employment_sector","sic_industry_division","aa_category","dla_sc_category","dla_m_category","pip_m_category","pip_dl_category","is_disabled_for_benefits","is_enhanced_disabled_for_benefits","is_severely_disabled_for_benefits","current_education","highest_education","is_in_non_advanced_education","is_in_approved_training","age_started_or_accepted_current_education_or_training","is_before_universal_credit_qualifying_young_person_terminal_date","adult_ema","child_ema","receives_benefits_in_own_right","reports_outstanding_student_loan","age_left_full_time_education","legacy_jobseeker_proxy","esa_health_condition_proxy","esa_support_group_proxy","disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses","max_free_entitlement_hours_used","would_claim_marriage_allowance","would_claim_scp","attends_private_school_random_draw","tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share","is_apprentice","hmrc_spi_pay","hmrc_spi_unemployment_benefit_income","hmrc_spi_incapacity_benefit_income","ossben_identifiable_subset","srp_regular_code5","employer_pension_contributions","employment_income_annual_share","employment_income_other_spells","self_employment_income_annual_share","self_employment_income_other_spells","private_pension_income_annual_share","contributory_benefits_annual_share","person_source_id","person_support_channel","person_support_clone_index","person_is_spi_income_band_carrier","charitable_investment_gifts","gift_aid","other_investment_income","hmrc_spi_employment_benefits","hmrc_spi_employment_expenses","hmrc_spi_other_social_security_income","hmrc_spi_taxable_termination_pay","hmrc_spi_miscellaneous_employment_income","hmrc_spi_other_income","hmrc_spi_state_pension_income","property_finance_costs","hmrc_spi_employed_income","hmrc_spi_total_earned_income","hmrc_spi_total_investment_income","hmrc_spi_assessable_income","person_is_spi_income_recipient","student_loan_balance","has_lifetime_isa","lifetime_isa_balance","property_rental_income","local_bus_use_band","bus_in_london_trips","other_local_bus_trips","local_bus_trips","bus_pass_eligible","local_bus_single_fare_share","a_and_e_visits","admitted_patient_visits","outpatient_visits","nhs_a_and_e_spending","nhs_admitted_patient_spending","nhs_outpatient_spending","capital_gains","cgt_residential_probability","capital_gains_residential_property","capital_gains_asset_type","capital_gains_badr","pension_contributions_via_bonus_sacrifice","salary_sacrifice_pre_conversion_pay","student_loan_plan"],"entity":"person","rows":"all"}],"kernel":"uk.stage.private_school_attendance@1","mass":"conserve","outputs":[{"column":"attends_private_school","dtype":"bool","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"}],"params":{"numerical_dependencies":[["policyengine-uk","2.162.8"],["policyengine-core","3.33.3"],["numpy","2.4.6"],["pandas","3.0.3"],["scikit-learn","1.8.0"],["quantile-forest","1.4.2"]],"stage":"private_school_attendance","stage_contract_sha256":"7e44379c0331fe4c9de05cd76a075c1a6aa22cf0dec6cd2f91b277e70f14a038","time_period":"2024"},"population":"childcare_copy_take_up.boundary","sources":["frs"],"structural":"none","weights":null}],"sources":[{"codec":"csv-tables","description":"Content-bound UK FRS and donor fixture/source bundle.","name":"frs"}]} diff --git a/uv.lock b/uv.lock index 33ff5a6d40..9a48b9c330 100644 --- a/uv.lock +++ b/uv.lock @@ -857,7 +857,7 @@ requires-dist = [ { name = "openpyxl", marker = "extra == 'uk'", specifier = ">=3.1" }, { name = "pandas", specifier = ">=2" }, { name = "policyengine-core", marker = "extra == 'us'", specifier = "==3.32.5" }, - { name = "policyengine-uk", marker = "extra == 'uk'", specifier = ">=2.162.3" }, + { name = "policyengine-uk", marker = "extra == 'uk'", specifier = ">=2.162.8" }, { name = "policyengine-us", marker = "extra == 'us'", specifier = ">=2.2.1,<3" }, { name = "pyarrow", specifier = ">=15" }, { name = "pyyaml", specifier = ">=6" }, @@ -936,7 +936,7 @@ requires-dist = [ { name = "microcosm-diagnostics", editable = "packages/microcosm-diagnostics" }, { name = "packaging", specifier = ">=24" }, { name = "policyengine-core", marker = "extra == 'us'", specifier = "==3.32.5" }, - { name = "policyengine-uk", marker = "extra == 'uk'", specifier = ">=2.162.3" }, + { name = "policyengine-uk", marker = "extra == 'uk'", specifier = ">=2.162.8" }, { name = "policyengine-us", marker = "extra == 'us'", specifier = ">=2.2.1,<3" }, ] provides-extras = ["us", "uk"] @@ -1055,7 +1055,7 @@ requires-dist = [ { name = "numpy", specifier = ">=2" }, { name = "pandas", specifier = ">=2.3" }, { name = "policyengine-core", marker = "extra == 'policyengine'", specifier = "==3.32.5" }, - { name = "policyengine-uk", marker = "extra == 'uk'", specifier = ">=2.162.3" }, + { name = "policyengine-uk", marker = "extra == 'uk'", specifier = ">=2.162.8" }, { name = "policyengine-us", marker = "extra == 'policyengine'", specifier = ">=2.2.1,<3" }, { name = "tables", marker = "extra == 'axiom'", specifier = ">=3" }, ] @@ -1675,7 +1675,7 @@ wheels = [ [[package]] name = "policyengine-uk" -version = "2.162.3" +version = "2.162.8" source = { registry = "https://pypi.org/simple" } dependencies = [ { name = "microdf-python" }, @@ -1683,9 +1683,9 @@ dependencies = [ { name = "pydantic" }, { name = "tables" }, ] -sdist = { url = "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/1b/7e/5c1c6e452ba1de1ee27f2217387fbea8ad1be8762555aa2cb86192464e10/policyengine_uk-2.162.3.tar.gz", hash = "sha256:eeca998c4e78ee173d7ee2b9aa3e58f026ccc0b1707cc04d7473c191aacf0cc6", size = 3735406, upload-time = "2026-10-26T02:01:10.081Z" } +sdist = { url = "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/87/85/319ad47f17702a8f89eb6bc907ad586c787abbfab0dc4714f585d3cf0f6e/policyengine_uk-2.162.8.tar.gz", hash = "sha256:0a5a3fcf01f25d3164d219fff300a60c0bed5dc9b0354189f80fc4e984a582d9", size = 3773133, upload-time = "2026-10-26T22:54:27.418Z" } wheels = [ - { url = "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/fa/55/0353b6bba0a80df1631a6c946201ad7d4d549aa139905f68334d34b41789/policyengine_uk-2.162.3-py3-none-any.whl", hash = "sha256:88184bb16174238731eef5a9c030cd12afac7d85b8ba987066433448567c1a4f", size = 5442784, upload-time = "2026-10-26T02:01:07.038Z" }, + { url = "https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/f0/98/c13ea7ce431facfab2190eafea46ac42a938009270bfc490ed1c9b6820bf/policyengine_uk-2.162.8-py3-none-any.whl", hash = "sha256:aaa54bdec0431df4131ad3d5a4c8005777b3bf034ab41ba6c9b70fca682f08d9", size = 5486270, upload-time = "2026-10-26T22:54:24.608Z" }, ] [[package]] From c07f86fd7d67baec7beb0b7177e211847542374f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:01:07 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 11/12] Hand frs_person_draws the pay its relief reads (#1373) The graph gives a finite-read stage only its declared cells, and frs_person_draws declared age and employment_status alone. On the licensed spine at ab7c777e2 its receipt therefore recorded no implied relief, and uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices blocked the build. The stage now reads employment_income too, a test holds the node's inputs to the columns the draw needs, and the H2 fixture follows. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- .../src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/graph.py | 8 ++++++-- .../engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py | 18 ++++++++++++++++++ .../fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json | 2 +- 3 files changed, 25 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/graph.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/graph.py index f01f1e0d96..21d63ff3d4 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/graph.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/graph.py @@ -254,8 +254,12 @@ ) | frozenset({("benunit", "is_married")}), # is_apprentice draws employees aged 21 to 24 at a rate set by the - # frame's weights (microcosm#1372). - "frs_person_draws": frozenset({("person", "age"), ("person", "employment_status")}), + # frame's weights (microcosm#1372), and its receipt reads their pay for + # the relief the flags imply (microcosm#1373). + "frs_person_draws": frozenset( + ("person", column) + for column in ("age", "employment_status", "employment_income") + ), "frs_household_draws": frozenset(), "frs_brma": None, "was_wealth": None, diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py index 7449568067..018a0d6eab 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py @@ -297,6 +297,24 @@ def test_receipt_records_no_relief_without_a_schedule() -> None: assert "implied_relief" not in derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.5).receipt +def test_the_graph_node_reads_every_person_column_the_draw_needs() -> None: + """A node receives its declared cells alone, so the declaration must name + the pay the relief reads: the licensed spine at ab7c777e2 recorded no + implied relief, and the gate blocked it, before the declaration followed + (microcosm#1373).""" + from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.graph import uk_spine_graph + + node = uk_spine_graph(source_mode="split").node("frs_person_draws") + inputs = { + (slice_.entity, column) for slice_ in node.inputs for column in slice_.columns + } + assert { + ("person", "age"), + ("person", "employment_status"), + ("person", "employment_income"), + } <= inputs + + def _system(*, variables, apprentice_threshold=966.73): thresholds = SimpleNamespace() if apprentice_threshold is not None: diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json index acca78673e..d0b69fdcb4 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json @@ -1 +1 @@ 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UK FRS and donor fixture/source bundle.","name":"frs"}]} From 5d76d928f03dae02bb7d96114aeebdd9fd9dd163 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:08:29 +0000 Subject: [PATCH 12/12] =?UTF-8?q?Say=20the=20first-year=20default=20awaits?= =?UTF-8?q?=20Mar=C3=ADa's=20signature=20(#1373)?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit The 2.162.8 changelog fragment called the is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship default signed; the engine-defaults register records it for her signature. The draw's fragment now also names the relief ceiling. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 --- changelog.d/uk-apprentice-draw.added.md | 2 +- changelog.d/uk-policyengine-uk-2-162-8.changed.md | 2 +- 2 files changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/changelog.d/uk-apprentice-draw.added.md b/changelog.d/uk-apprentice-draw.added.md index abce630aab..dc81872c45 100644 --- a/changelog.d/uk-apprentice-draw.added.md +++ b/changelog.d/uk-apprentice-draw.added.md @@ -1 +1 @@ -Draw `is_apprentice` on the UK spine for employees aged 21 to 24, so the employer NICs zero rate for apprentices under 25 (SSCBA 1992 s.9B, policyengine-uk#2505) reaches them (#1372). The target is DfE's England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24, 3,689 per 100,000 in 2024/25, rather than the in-year participation rate (5,992). Employees are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it, and the new release-blocking gate `uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices` checks the stage's receipt. The FRS has no apprenticeship variable; other ages keep the default False. +Draw `is_apprentice` on the UK spine for employees aged 21 to 24, so the employer NICs zero rate for apprentices under 25 (SSCBA 1992 s.9B, policyengine-uk#2505) reaches them (#1372). The target is DfE's England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24, 3,689 per 100,000 in 2024/25, rather than the in-year participation rate (5,992). Employees are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it, and the new release-blocking gate `uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices` checks the stage's receipt, holding the relief the flags imply at or below HMRC's NIC-NS1 for 2024-25 (£370m). The FRS has no apprenticeship variable; other ages keep the default False. diff --git a/changelog.d/uk-policyengine-uk-2-162-8.changed.md b/changelog.d/uk-policyengine-uk-2-162-8.changed.md index 5e9d63942a..e49f030791 100644 --- a/changelog.d/uk-policyengine-uk-2-162-8.changed.md +++ b/changelog.d/uk-policyengine-uk-2-162-8.changed.md @@ -1 +1 @@ -The UK lock moves from policyengine-uk 2.162.3 to 2.162.8 for the apprentice minimum wage's split from `is_apprentice` (policyengine-uk#2683, released in 2.162.8 because 2.162.7 never reached PyPI): the apprentice rate now applies only under 19 or with `is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship`, which the build leaves at its default (False, signed), so the employees `frs_person_draws` flags keep their age-related minimum wage (#1373). The move also uprates reported council tax reduction with each household's council tax in projected years (policyengine-uk#2680), which changes values read at 2025 from the 2024 frame wherever the engine uses reported council tax reduction; screens income-related ESA and income-based JSA reports separately for people outside the claimant couple (policyengine-uk#2679); holds Universal Credit advance repayments at their cash amount under allowance reforms (policyengine-uk#2574; no baseline change); and annualises fiscal parameters past 2040 (2.162.4). +The UK lock moves from policyengine-uk 2.162.3 to 2.162.8 for the apprentice minimum wage's split from `is_apprentice` (policyengine-uk#2683, released in 2.162.8 because 2.162.7 never reached PyPI): the apprentice rate now applies only under 19 or with `is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship`, which the build leaves at its default (False; the engine-defaults register records it for María's signature), so the employees `frs_person_draws` flags keep their age-related minimum wage (#1373). The move also uprates reported council tax reduction with each household's council tax in projected years (policyengine-uk#2680), which changes values read at 2025 from the 2024 frame wherever the engine uses reported council tax reduction; screens income-related ESA and income-based JSA reports separately for people outside the claimant couple (policyengine-uk#2679); holds Universal Credit advance repayments at their cash amount under allowance reforms (policyengine-uk#2574; no baseline change); and annualises fiscal parameters past 2040 (2.162.4).