diff --git a/changelog.d/uk-apprentice-draw.added.md b/changelog.d/uk-apprentice-draw.added.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..dc81872c45 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/uk-apprentice-draw.added.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Draw `is_apprentice` on the UK spine for employees aged 21 to 24, so the employer NICs zero rate for apprentices under 25 (SSCBA 1992 s.9B, policyengine-uk#2505) reaches them (#1372). The target is DfE's England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24, 3,689 per 100,000 in 2024/25, rather than the in-year participation rate (5,992). Employees are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it, and the new release-blocking gate `uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices` checks the stage's receipt, holding the relief the flags imply at or below HMRC's NIC-NS1 for 2024-25 (£370m). The FRS has no apprenticeship variable; other ages keep the default False. diff --git a/changelog.d/uk-policyengine-uk-2-162-8.changed.md b/changelog.d/uk-policyengine-uk-2-162-8.changed.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..e49f030791 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/uk-policyengine-uk-2-162-8.changed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +The UK lock moves from policyengine-uk 2.162.3 to 2.162.8 for the apprentice minimum wage's split from `is_apprentice` (policyengine-uk#2683, released in 2.162.8 because 2.162.7 never reached PyPI): the apprentice rate now applies only under 19 or with `is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship`, which the build leaves at its default (False; the engine-defaults register records it for María's signature), so the employees `frs_person_draws` flags keep their age-related minimum wage (#1373). The move also uprates reported council tax reduction with each household's council tax in projected years (policyengine-uk#2680), which changes values read at 2025 from the 2024 frame wherever the engine uses reported council tax reduction; screens income-related ESA and income-based JSA reports separately for people outside the claimant couple (policyengine-uk#2679); holds Universal Credit advance repayments at their cash amount under allowance reforms (policyengine-uk#2574; no baseline change); and annualises fiscal parameters past 2040 (2.162.4). diff --git a/docs/concept-coverage/policyengine-uk.md b/docs/concept-coverage/policyengine-uk.md index 8eb5c131b1..088cb7c13b 100644 --- a/docs/concept-coverage/policyengine-uk.md +++ b/docs/concept-coverage/policyengine-uk.md @@ -1,11 +1,11 @@ # Concept coverage: policyengine-uk -Engine version `2.162.3`; concept schema `5a55669d0447`. Generated by `tools/refresh_concept_coverage.py`; do not edit by hand. +Engine version `2.162.8`; concept schema `5a55669d0447`. Generated by `tools/refresh_concept_coverage.py`; do not edit by hand. -- Engine inputs: 356 +- Engine inputs: 357 - Fed by a concept: 41 - Structural: 11 -- Uncovered: 304 +- Uncovered: 305 - Mapped but missing from the engine: 0 ## Inputs each concept feeds @@ -58,6 +58,6 @@ Engine version `2.162.3`; concept schema `5a55669d0447`. Generated by `tools/ref `accommodation_type`, `additional_residential_property_purchased`, `alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption`, `beer_draught_share`, `beer_litres`, `betting_exchange_commission`, `bingo_net_receipts`, `bus_fare_spending_reported`, `bus_subsidy_spending`, `cash_isa`, `cider_draught_share`, `cider_litres`, `cigarettes_per_week`, `cigars_grams_per_week`, `clothing_and_footwear_consumption`, `communication_consumption`, `consumer_debt`, `corporate_wealth`, `council_tax_band`, `cumulative_non_residential_rent`, `cumulative_residential_rent`, `dfe_education_spending`, `diesel_spending`, `directly_held_shares`, `domestic_energy_consumption`, `domestic_rates`, `ebr_energy_bills_credit_eligible`, `education_consumption`, `electricity_consumption`, `electricity_consumption_kwh`, `external_child_payments`, `financial_spread_betting_net_losses`, `food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages_consumption`, `full_rate_vat_expenditure_rate`, `gas_consumption`, `gas_consumption_kwh`, `gross_financial_wealth`, `hand_rolling_tobacco_grams_per_week`, `health_consumption`, `heated_tobacco_grams_per_week`, `horse_and_dog_pool_betting_net_losses`, `household_furnishings_consumption`, `household_owns_tv`, `housing_service_charges`, `housing_water_and_electricity_consumption`, `in_original_frs`, `in_rural_fuel_duty_relief_area`, `is_shared_accommodation`, `land_based_casino_net_losses`, `land_based_fixed_odds_betting_net_losses`, `liquid_fuel_consumption`, `local_authority`, `lpg_kg`, `machine_games_higher_rate_net_takings`, `machine_games_lower_rate_net_takings`, `machine_games_standard_rate_net_takings`, `main_residence_value`, `main_residential_property_purchased_is_first_home`, `main_residential_property_purchased_is_in_uk`, `main_residential_property_purchased_with_mortgage`, `miscellaneous_consumption`, `mortgage_debt`, `national_lottery_ticket_spending`, `natural_gas_kg`, `net_financial_wealth`, `ni_epg_full_rate_applies`, `non_residential_property_purchased`, `non_residential_property_secured_debt`, `non_residential_property_value`, `non_residential_rent`, `num_bedrooms`, `num_vehicles`, `other_fermented_draught_share`, `other_fermented_litres`, `other_residential_property_secured_debt`, `other_residential_property_value`, `other_spread_betting_net_losses`, `other_tobacco_grams_per_week`, `owned_land`, `petrol_spending`, `pool_betting_net_receipts`, `private_pension_wealth`, `property_purchased`, `rail_usage`, `recreation_consumption`, `region`, `remote_gaming_net_losses`, `remote_other_betting_net_losses`, `remote_uk_horseracing_betting_net_losses`, `restaurants_and_hotels_consumption`, `savings`, `solid_fuel_consumption`, `sparkling_cider_draught_share`, `sparkling_cider_litres`, `spi_imputed`, `spirits_draught_share`, `spirits_litres`, `stocks_and_shares_isa`, `structural_insurance_payments`, `transport_consumption`, `uc_migrated`, `unit_and_investment_trusts`, `uses_energy_prepayment_meter`, `water_and_sewerage_charges`, `wine_draught_share`, `wine_litres`, `would_evade_tv_licence_fee` -### person (180) +### person (181) -`a_and_e_visits`, `aa_category`, `access_fund`, `admitted_patient_visits`, `adult_dependants_grant_has_other_adult_dependant`, `adult_dependants_grant_other_adult_income`, `adult_dependants_grant_receives_postgraduate_loan`, `adult_ema`, `afcs_reported`, `age_started_or_accepted_current_education_or_training`, `armed_forces_independence_payment`, `attends_private_school_random_draw`, `base_net_income`, `blind_persons_allowance`, `bsp_reported`, `bursary_fund_16_to_19_in_care_or_care_leaver`, `bursary_fund_16_to_19_participation_costs`, `bursary_fund_16_to_19_self_supporting`, `bus_in_london_trips`, `bus_pass_eligible`, `capital_allowances`, `capital_gains_badr`, `capital_gains_carried_interest`, `capital_gains_residential_property`, `car_co2_emissions`, `car_engine_size`, `car_first_registration_date`, `car_fuel_type`, `car_is_ved_exempt`, `car_list_price`, `care_hours`, `carers_allowance_reported`, `charitable_investment_gifts`, `child_benefit_reported`, `child_ema`, `child_limit_adoption_exception`, `child_limit_continuation_exception`, `child_limit_multiple_birth_exception`, `child_limit_non_consensual_conception_exception`, `child_limit_non_parental_caring_exception`, `child_tax_credit_reported`, `childcare_expenses`, `childcare_grant_child_has_special_educational_needs`, `childcare_grant_provider_is_nanny`, `childcare_grant_receives_nhs_childcare_support`, `childcare_grant_receives_postgraduate_loan`, `council_tax_benefit_reported`, `covenanted_payments`, `deficiency_relief`, `defined_benefit_pension_share`, `disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses`, `disabled_students_allowance_receives_equivalent_support`, `dla_m_category`, `dla_sc_category`, `early_years_school_start_deferred`, `education_grants`, `employee_pension_contributions_reported`, `employer_pension_contributions`, `employment_expenses`, `employment_sector`, `employment_status`, `esa_contrib_reported`, `esa_income_reported`, `free_school_fruit_veg`, `free_school_meals`, `free_school_milk`, `gift_aid`, `healthy_start_vouchers`, `housing_benefit_reported`, `iidb_reported`, `in_FE`, `incapacity_benefit_reported`, `income_support_reported`, `individual_savings_account_dividend_income`, `is_about_to_start_paid_work`, `is_apprentice`, `is_before_universal_credit_qualifying_young_person_terminal_date`, `is_blind`, `is_engaged_in_owned_company_trade`, `is_full_year_category_a_director`, `is_in_approved_training`, `is_looked_after_by_local_authority`, `is_newly_self_employed`, `jsa_contrib_reported`, `jsa_income_reported`, `lifetime_isa_balance`, `lifetime_isa_first_time_buyer`, `lifetime_isa_months_since_first_payment`, `lifetime_isa_payments`, `lifetime_isa_terminally_ill`, `lifetime_isa_withdrawals`, `lifetime_isa_withdrawals_towards_first_home`, `local_bus_uncapped_single_fare`, `loss_relief`, `lump_sum_income`, `maintenance_expenses`, `maintenance_income`, `married_couples_allowance`, `maternity_allowance_reported`, `max_free_entitlement_hours_used`, `miscellaneous_income`, `nhs_a_and_e_spending`, `nhs_admitted_patient_spending`, `nhs_outpatient_spending`, `ni_class_3`, `non_cash_isa_cash_interest`, `other_deductions`, `other_investment_income`, `other_local_bus_trips`, `other_tax_credits`, `outpatient_visits`, `owned_company_capital`, `owned_company_carries_on_property_business`, `owned_company_carries_on_trade`, `owned_company_holding_value`, `owned_company_income_share`, `owned_company_intermediary_earnings_chapter`, `owned_company_intermediary_earnings_from_main_employment`, `owned_company_is_main_employment`, `owned_company_trade_assets`, `pension_annual_allowance_taxable_lump_sum_death_benefits`, `pension_contributions_via_bonus_sacrifice`, `pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice`, `pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice_pre_2015`, `pension_credit_reported`, `pension_income`, `person_benunit_role`, `person_household_role`, `personal_pension_contributions`, `pip_dl_points`, `pip_m_points`, `private_transfer_income`, `property_finance_costs`, `property_finance_costs_brought_forward`, `property_rental_income`, `receives_benefits_in_own_right`, `receives_limited_capability_for_work_credits`, `rent_paid_as_boarder`, `rent_paid_as_lodger`, `role`, `salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income`, `scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_start_date_reached`, `sda_reported`, `self_employment_gross_receipts`, `sic_industry_division`, `spousal_maintenance_income`, `ssmg_reported`, `stands_as_sole_owner_or_partner_of_company`, `statutory_maternity_pay`, `statutory_paternity_pay`, `statutory_sick_pay`, `student_loan_balance`, `student_loan_plan`, `student_loans`, `sublet_income`, `tax_free_childcare_on_adoption_leave`, `tax_free_childcare_on_carers_leave`, `tax_free_childcare_on_qualifying_leave`, `tax_free_childcare_on_shared_parental_leave`, `tax_free_childcare_self_employment_start_up_period`, `tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share`, `tax_free_childcare_uses_qualifying_provider`, `tax_reported`, `travel_grant_abroad_placement`, `travel_grant_clinical_placement`, `travel_grant_eligible_expenses`, `travel_grant_receives_means_tested_nhs_bursary`, `uc_has_offer_of_paid_work_starting_by_end_of_next_assessment_period`, `uc_is_adopter_in_first_year`, `uc_is_foster_parent_or_new_friend_or_family_carer`, `uc_is_in_pregnancy_or_post_confinement_period`, `uc_is_in_startup_period`, `uc_is_responsible_foster_parent_of_child_under_one`, `uc_is_student_with_no_work_related_requirements`, `uc_is_temporarily_absent_from_claimant_household`, `universal_credit_reported`, `war_widows_pension_reported`, `widowed_parents_allowance_reported`, `winter_fuel_allowance_reported`, `working_tax_credit_reported` +`a_and_e_visits`, `aa_category`, `access_fund`, `admitted_patient_visits`, `adult_dependants_grant_has_other_adult_dependant`, `adult_dependants_grant_other_adult_income`, `adult_dependants_grant_receives_postgraduate_loan`, `adult_ema`, `afcs_reported`, `age_started_or_accepted_current_education_or_training`, `armed_forces_independence_payment`, `attends_private_school_random_draw`, `base_net_income`, `blind_persons_allowance`, `bsp_reported`, `bursary_fund_16_to_19_in_care_or_care_leaver`, `bursary_fund_16_to_19_participation_costs`, `bursary_fund_16_to_19_self_supporting`, `bus_in_london_trips`, `bus_pass_eligible`, `capital_allowances`, `capital_gains_badr`, `capital_gains_carried_interest`, `capital_gains_residential_property`, `car_co2_emissions`, `car_engine_size`, `car_first_registration_date`, `car_fuel_type`, `car_is_ved_exempt`, `car_list_price`, `care_hours`, `carers_allowance_reported`, `charitable_investment_gifts`, `child_benefit_reported`, `child_ema`, `child_limit_adoption_exception`, `child_limit_continuation_exception`, `child_limit_multiple_birth_exception`, `child_limit_non_consensual_conception_exception`, `child_limit_non_parental_caring_exception`, `child_tax_credit_reported`, `childcare_expenses`, `childcare_grant_child_has_special_educational_needs`, `childcare_grant_provider_is_nanny`, `childcare_grant_receives_nhs_childcare_support`, `childcare_grant_receives_postgraduate_loan`, `council_tax_benefit_reported`, `covenanted_payments`, `deficiency_relief`, `defined_benefit_pension_share`, `disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses`, `disabled_students_allowance_receives_equivalent_support`, `dla_m_category`, `dla_sc_category`, `early_years_school_start_deferred`, `education_grants`, `employee_pension_contributions_reported`, `employer_pension_contributions`, `employment_expenses`, `employment_sector`, `employment_status`, `esa_contrib_reported`, `esa_income_reported`, `free_school_fruit_veg`, `free_school_meals`, `free_school_milk`, `gift_aid`, `healthy_start_vouchers`, `housing_benefit_reported`, `iidb_reported`, `in_FE`, `incapacity_benefit_reported`, `income_support_reported`, `individual_savings_account_dividend_income`, `is_about_to_start_paid_work`, `is_apprentice`, `is_before_universal_credit_qualifying_young_person_terminal_date`, `is_blind`, `is_engaged_in_owned_company_trade`, `is_full_year_category_a_director`, `is_in_approved_training`, `is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship`, `is_looked_after_by_local_authority`, `is_newly_self_employed`, `jsa_contrib_reported`, `jsa_income_reported`, `lifetime_isa_balance`, `lifetime_isa_first_time_buyer`, `lifetime_isa_months_since_first_payment`, `lifetime_isa_payments`, `lifetime_isa_terminally_ill`, `lifetime_isa_withdrawals`, `lifetime_isa_withdrawals_towards_first_home`, `local_bus_uncapped_single_fare`, `loss_relief`, `lump_sum_income`, `maintenance_expenses`, `maintenance_income`, `married_couples_allowance`, `maternity_allowance_reported`, `max_free_entitlement_hours_used`, `miscellaneous_income`, `nhs_a_and_e_spending`, `nhs_admitted_patient_spending`, `nhs_outpatient_spending`, `ni_class_3`, `non_cash_isa_cash_interest`, `other_deductions`, `other_investment_income`, `other_local_bus_trips`, `other_tax_credits`, `outpatient_visits`, `owned_company_capital`, `owned_company_carries_on_property_business`, `owned_company_carries_on_trade`, `owned_company_holding_value`, `owned_company_income_share`, `owned_company_intermediary_earnings_chapter`, `owned_company_intermediary_earnings_from_main_employment`, `owned_company_is_main_employment`, `owned_company_trade_assets`, `pension_annual_allowance_taxable_lump_sum_death_benefits`, `pension_contributions_via_bonus_sacrifice`, `pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice`, `pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice_pre_2015`, `pension_credit_reported`, `pension_income`, `person_benunit_role`, `person_household_role`, `personal_pension_contributions`, `pip_dl_points`, `pip_m_points`, `private_transfer_income`, `property_finance_costs`, `property_finance_costs_brought_forward`, `property_rental_income`, `receives_benefits_in_own_right`, `receives_limited_capability_for_work_credits`, `rent_paid_as_boarder`, `rent_paid_as_lodger`, `role`, `salary_sacrifice_returned_to_income`, `scottish_funded_early_learning_childcare_start_date_reached`, `sda_reported`, `self_employment_gross_receipts`, `sic_industry_division`, `spousal_maintenance_income`, `ssmg_reported`, `stands_as_sole_owner_or_partner_of_company`, `statutory_maternity_pay`, `statutory_paternity_pay`, `statutory_sick_pay`, `student_loan_balance`, `student_loan_plan`, `student_loans`, `sublet_income`, `tax_free_childcare_on_adoption_leave`, `tax_free_childcare_on_carers_leave`, `tax_free_childcare_on_qualifying_leave`, `tax_free_childcare_on_shared_parental_leave`, `tax_free_childcare_self_employment_start_up_period`, `tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share`, `tax_free_childcare_uses_qualifying_provider`, `tax_reported`, `travel_grant_abroad_placement`, `travel_grant_clinical_placement`, `travel_grant_eligible_expenses`, `travel_grant_receives_means_tested_nhs_bursary`, `uc_has_offer_of_paid_work_starting_by_end_of_next_assessment_period`, `uc_is_adopter_in_first_year`, `uc_is_foster_parent_or_new_friend_or_family_carer`, `uc_is_in_pregnancy_or_post_confinement_period`, `uc_is_in_startup_period`, `uc_is_responsible_foster_parent_of_child_under_one`, `uc_is_student_with_no_work_related_requirements`, `uc_is_temporarily_absent_from_claimant_household`, `universal_credit_reported`, `war_widows_pension_reported`, `widowed_parents_allowance_reported`, `winter_fuel_allowance_reported`, `working_tax_credit_reported` diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/pyproject.toml b/packages/microcosm-build/pyproject.toml index 3f72a160ad..a294022a97 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/pyproject.toml +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/pyproject.toml @@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ us = [ # The UK extra adds the rules engine for local metric generation from a # Microcosm UK H5. Target tables remain explicit inputs, and the base package # still does not import policyengine-uk at import time. -uk = ["policyengine-uk>=2.162.3", "microcosm-data>=0.1,<0.2", "h5py>=3", "tables>=3", "openpyxl>=3.1"] +uk = ["policyengine-uk>=2.162.8", "microcosm-data>=0.1,<0.2", "h5py>=3", "tables>=3", "openpyxl>=3.1"] [project.scripts] microcosm-build-uk = "microcosm.build.uk_runtime.full_build_cli:main" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/bonus_sacrifice_anchor.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/bonus_sacrifice_anchor.json index 98ece5cb5b..4caa3a8051 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/bonus_sacrifice_anchor.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/bonus_sacrifice_anchor.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "schema_version": 1, "engine": { "package": "policyengine-uk", - "version": "2.162.3" + "version": "2.162.8" }, "written_by": "tools/pin_uk_bonus_sacrifice_anchor.py", "source": { diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json index 9090c9b70f..6c9d162f93 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json @@ -900,6 +900,22 @@ }, "notes": "Stage-time gate over the Move to UC take-up receipt (microcosm#1308, gated with the next policyengine-uk bump on María's ruling of 2026-10-17). The receipt withholds what a thin combination realizes, so the gate holds the contract it can read: the share is measured at the spine's design weights over Great Britain, every combination's rate is a probability taken from its combination or from all households, its support is a printed band, its unreachable flag is a boolean, a withheld \"<10\" or absent, and the share claiming at closure is a share or withheld." }, + { + "id": "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices", + "gate": "stage_health", + "phase": "transferred", + "criticality": "release_blocking", + "evidence_absent_blocks": true, + "population_fact_check": true, + "parameters": { + "stage": "frs_person_draws", + "check": "apprentice_draw", + "rate_key": "apprentice_stock_19_to_24", + "maximum_relative_realization_deviation": 0.05, + "maximum_implied_relief": 370000000.0 + }, + "notes": "Stage-time gate over the is_apprentice receipt (microcosm#1373). The draw's target is the contract's apprentice_stock_19_to_24 for the build year (DfE's England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year, participation less starts, per head aged 19 to 24) times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the stage's weights, and eligible employees aged 21 to 24 are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it, so the stage misses it by at most half one person's weight. The gate checks that the receipt carries the contract's rate under the declared key, that its target is that rate times its population, that its support is printed in bands, and, unless the eligible employees weigh no more than the target (cap-bound, every one of them flagged), that the flagged weight lies within maximum_relative_realization_deviation (5 percent) of the target. That tolerance is a declared rule set above the half-weight bound, not a fact. A figure resting on fewer than ten source households, which the receipt withholds under the UKDS disclosure rule and prints \"<10\", is named unchecked, never failed: a small-cell rule never stops a build (María's ruling of 2026-10-26). The receipt also records the relief the flags imply at the installed engine's own Class 1 schedule for the build year (on a 2024 frame, 13.8 percent between GBP 9,100 and GBP 50,270), with each flagged employee's pay standing in for NIC earnings, and the gate holds it at or below maximum_implied_relief: GBP 370m, HMRC's NIC - NS1 for 2024-25 (tax relief statistics, January 2026, Table 2), which covers every apprentice under 25, under-21s included, since the apprentice relief takes precedence (Vahid's review of microcosm#1373, S1). It is a ceiling, not a target. The stage refuses an installed engine without the s.9B threshold or without policyengine-uk#2683's split of the apprentice minimum wage from the flag. The entry is a population_fact_check, so the synthetic smoke build over the H2 fixture records its outcome without blocking; every licensed build blocks on it." + }, { "id": "uk_release_input_coverage", "gate": "release_input_coverage", @@ -1235,6 +1251,7 @@ "person.student_loan_balance", "person.student_loan_plan", "person.tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", + "person.is_apprentice", "person.trading_loss", "person.uc_is_in_startup_period", "person.uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/hmrc_uprating_engine_pins.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/hmrc_uprating_engine_pins.json index d1a3f5c7e8..d10cd64442 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/hmrc_uprating_engine_pins.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/hmrc_uprating_engine_pins.json @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ "schema_version": 1, "engine": { "package": "policyengine-uk", - "version": "2.162.3" + "version": "2.162.8" }, "basis": "policyengine-uk parameter ratio between 1 January of the fact's opening year and 1 January of the calibration year (the SPI donor rebasing convention)", "written_by": "tools/pin_uk_uprating_engine_values.py", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json index f783ea2ece..1d2a6a242e 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json @@ -470,7 +470,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains incidence anchor moves the mass of non-liable clone households back to their paired originals until the sub-exempt and loss-making clone mass match the Advani-Summers reporter composition at the redrawn liable mass; every pair's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "Advani and Summers (2020), Capital Gains and UK Inequality, CAGE Working Paper 465", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support, the HMRC Table 3 redrawn gains on the spine and Advani-Summers capital-gains incidence" @@ -493,7 +493,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "Advani and Summers (2020), Capital Gains and UK Inequality, CAGE Working Paper 465", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support, and Advani-Summers capital-gains incidence" @@ -516,7 +516,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains residential split divides every household carrying liable gainers into arms weighted by the solved residential probabilities, one arm per subset of residential gainers; every household's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/capital-gains-tax-statistics", "survey": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics 2026 release, Table 8 (UK residential property disposals, 2024-25, administrative) on the amounts the Table 3 redraw placed" @@ -538,7 +538,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Capital-gains support split divides the wealthiest households of each HMRC Table 3 income band into light copies at equal weight; every household's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics, July 2026 release, Table 3 for 2024-25, via the vendored conditioning facts", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support and HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics Table 3 (2024-25 individuals by size of gain and taxable income)" @@ -567,7 +567,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "ETB public-services imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 8856 Effects of Taxes and Benefits household tab, DfT rail fare index, and public NHS activity/cost table.", "survey": "Effects of Taxes and Benefits 1977-2024 and NHS age-gender public table" @@ -587,7 +587,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "ETB VAT expenditure-rate imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 8856 Effects of Taxes and Benefits household tab and cited VAT anchor resource.", "survey": "Effects of Taxes and Benefits 1977-2024" @@ -609,7 +609,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "High-value home support divides every owner household in the top value stratum of its region into light copies at equal weight; every household's mass and the total household mass are conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "Microcosm structural operator (microcosm#1240 fix 1); no publisher input", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 and SPI synthetic support, after the WAS wealth draw and the regional property uprating" @@ -630,7 +630,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "CGT asset-type assignment on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/capital-gains-tax-statistics", "survey": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics 2026 release, Table 8 (UK residential property disposals, 2024-25, administrative), Table 4.1 (individuals claiming Business Asset Disposal Relief or Investors' Relief by band of qualifying gain, 2024-25, administrative) and Table 7 (disposals, proceeds and gains by asset type, 2023-24, sample-based), vendored from the pinned Chronicle feed" @@ -654,7 +654,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "conditioning_resource": "hmrc_cgt_conditioning_facts.json", "conditioning_resource_sha256": "e54cdad4cfe4498bfddb329d6b0aef468ea542a55c1970df574859626a3d19d3", @@ -744,7 +744,7 @@ "full_frs_tei_band_unavailable" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "hmrc_surface": "2023-24", "mapped_build_period": "2024", @@ -812,7 +812,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "LCFS consumption imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 9603 Living Costs and Food Survey 2024-25 (2nd edition) household/person tabs and the vendored Chronicle facts for NEED 2024 mean kWh, DESNZ Energy Trends and QEP average prices paid for calendar 2024, road-fuel outturn (DESNZ, HMRC, ONS Consumer Trends) and road fuel by vehicle type (DESNZ), ONS Consumer Trends household spending by COICOP division, the DfT VEH1103 licensed-car stock, NTS bus use, and the DfT and devolved bus finance tables and fares indices.", "survey": "Living Costs and Food Survey 2024-25" @@ -838,7 +838,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "NTS bus-travel imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "Department for Transport National Travel Survey, UK Data Service SN 5340 (End User Licence, 19th edition, November 2025), DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-5340-19; local licensed tab files (household, individual, trip); England residents only from 2013.", "survey": "National Travel Survey 2002-2024" @@ -858,7 +858,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Private-school attendance stored on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "policyengine-uk attends_private_school (the gov.simulation.private_school_vat attendance rates and factor), evaluated by the pinned engine", "survey": "policyengine-uk private-school attendance imputation, stored at the spine's weights" @@ -881,7 +881,7 @@ "property_finance_costs" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/property-rental-income-statistics", "survey": "Survey of Personal Incomes Public Use Tape 2022-23 and HMRC Property Rental Income Statistics 2026 (tax year 2024-25)" @@ -902,7 +902,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "Annual property purchases imputed on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-stamp-tax-statistics", "survey": "HMRC Annual Stamp Tax Statistics 2024 to 2025 (corrected 11 March 2026), Tables 6b, 8a and 8b" @@ -925,7 +925,7 @@ "property_wealth" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "uk/high_value_home_value_knots.json, built by tools/build_uk_high_value_home_stock.py from PolicyEngine/chronicle#343's registrations", "survey": "HM Land Registry Price Paid latest sales uprated with the UK House Price Index, owner-weighted by region (the dense value node's knots, region level)" @@ -949,7 +949,7 @@ "non_residential_property_value" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "MHCLG dwellings and the UK House Price Index regional average price averaged over the twelve months of calendar 2024 from the July 2026 full file, the frame's valuation basis, so the engine's annual uprating from 2024 projects the value once (microcosm#1240 fix 5).", "survey": "Public regional property reference" @@ -977,7 +977,7 @@ "employment_income" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC, Salary sacrifice reform for pension contributions effective from 6 April 2029", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 salary-sacrifice respondents and HMRC salary-sacrifice reform analysis" @@ -1010,7 +1010,7 @@ "household_source_id" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "Reserved SPI support households for the HMRC Table 2.5 total-income bands from GBP 200,000, stacked at the published band taxpayer count over the donors per band (PolicyEngine/chronicle#280 lane).", "survey": "Survey of Personal Incomes Public Use Tape 2022-23 and HMRC Income Tax liabilities statistics July 2026 Table 2.5" @@ -1032,7 +1032,7 @@ "student_loan_plan" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "Explore Education Statistics Table 6a, Higher education total", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 and Student Loans Company borrower forecasts for England" @@ -1054,7 +1054,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "WAS Lifetime ISA imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "Office for National Statistics Wealth and Assets Survey, UK Data Service SN 7215, DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-7215-20; local licensed round-8 person and household tabs (interviews April 2020 to March 2022, Great Britain).", "survey": "Wealth and Assets Survey round 8" @@ -1093,7 +1093,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "WAS wealth imputation on the source spine: household weights pass through unchanged and total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "a9afcd8a1c0ebe4a2121f5b7e69a0f35b042a2276c6fd329654b386cf9837ce5", + "source_manifest_sha256": "4eedfc965c7373ee70295e95aad0094604f46ff903655242020793ecd1c44cdd", "source_vintages": { "source": "Office for National Statistics Wealth and Assets Survey, UK Data Service SN 7215, DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-7215-20; local licensed 2006-22 household tab.", "survey": "Wealth and Assets Survey round 8" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json index d41c24eab9..7b1e3265fa 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json @@ -1129,7 +1129,7 @@ "maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage", "max_free_entitlement_hours_used" ], - "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; salts are output variable names. Reported positive receipt anchors are transient and consumed only. The Universal Credit draw's population is the benefit units with a UC claimant or partner (is_uc_claimant) aged 18 or over and under Pension Credit qualifying age (66 for everyone who can reach it in this release), the age and role conditions of policyengine-uk 2.162.3's is_uc_eligible; the engine lockstep test pins it and names the three engine cases not mirrored (16- and 17-year-old claimants under the UC Regs 2013 reg 8 exceptions, mixed-age couples on the Pension Credit route, and from 2.128.0 pension-age families moved onto Universal Credit when their legacy benefit closes, SI 2014/1230 reg 60A). So the contract rate is a share of those units, an anchor outside them stays true, and any other unit is never drawn; a unit with no claimant or partner of that age keeps its reported Housing Benefit, which a claim it cannot make no longer zeroes (#882, microcosm#867, microcosm#1095). The universal childcare flag is nested under the working-parent one. A unit that claims the extended hours claims the universal hours, and any other unit claims them at the contract's universal_childcare rate, the rate conditional on not claiming the extended hours; the extended draw is unchanged. childcare_copy_take_up later re-draws the childcare flags and hours of the support and CGT copies on their own benefit units. A child of DfE age 0 or 1 (its age on 31 December of the fit's model year, the age DfE counts by) in a unit that claims the working-parent hours uses them at its age's contract rate, extended_childcare_age_0_usage or extended_childcare_age_1_usage (DfE registers far fewer of the youngest eligible children than of those aged 2 to 4, and fewer at 9 to 11 months than at age 1); a child that does not gets max_free_entitlement_hours_used 0, so the engine funds it no hours, and every other person keeps the engine's default of 30." + "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; salts are output variable names. Reported positive receipt anchors are transient and consumed only. The Universal Credit draw's population is the benefit units with a UC claimant or partner (is_uc_claimant) aged 18 or over and under Pension Credit qualifying age (66 for everyone who can reach it in this release), the age and role conditions of policyengine-uk 2.162.8's is_uc_eligible; the engine lockstep test pins it and names the three engine cases not mirrored (16- and 17-year-old claimants under the UC Regs 2013 reg 8 exceptions, mixed-age couples on the Pension Credit route, and from 2.128.0 pension-age families moved onto Universal Credit when their legacy benefit closes, SI 2014/1230 reg 60A). So the contract rate is a share of those units, an anchor outside them stays true, and any other unit is never drawn; a unit with no claimant or partner of that age keeps its reported Housing Benefit, which a claim it cannot make no longer zeroes (#882, microcosm#867, microcosm#1095). The universal childcare flag is nested under the working-parent one. A unit that claims the extended hours claims the universal hours, and any other unit claims them at the contract's universal_childcare rate, the rate conditional on not claiming the extended hours; the extended draw is unchanged. childcare_copy_take_up later re-draws the childcare flags and hours of the support and CGT copies on their own benefit units. A child of DfE age 0 or 1 (its age on 31 December of the fit's model year, the age DfE counts by) in a unit that claims the working-parent hours uses them at its age's contract rate, extended_childcare_age_0_usage or extended_childcare_age_1_usage (DfE registers far fewer of the youngest eligible children than of those aged 2 to 4, and fewer at 9 to 11 months than at age 1); a child that does not gets max_free_entitlement_hours_used 0, so the engine funds it no hours, and every other person keeps the engine's default of 30." }, { "stage": "frs_person_draws", @@ -1179,19 +1179,30 @@ "contract_key": "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", "period_source": "build_year", "dtype": "float64" + }, + { + "kind": "assign_binary_from_rate", + "output": "is_apprentice", + "draw": "is_apprentice", + "rate_key": "apprentice_stock_19_to_24", + "assignment_unit": "person", + "eligibility": "employees (employment_status FT_EMPLOYED or PT_EMPLOYED, from frs_employment) aged 21 to 24: SSCBA 1992 s.9A already zero-rates every earner under 21 and s.9B ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so no other age changes employer NICs, and leaving them False keeps is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged; the flagged keep their age-related minimum_wage too, because policyengine-uk 2.162.8 (policyengine-uk#2683) gives the apprentice rate only under 19 or with is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship, which the build leaves at its default (False), and the stage refuses an engine without that split or the s.9B threshold", + "rate_derivation": "the contract's apprentice_stock_19_to_24 is DfE's England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24, a point-in-time count taken as uniform across those ages and UK-wide; the target is r times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the frame's household weights, and eligible employees are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it (uc_take_up's rule), or all of them when they weigh no more than it; the receipt records the target, the flagged weight, the support bands and the relief the flags imply at the installed engine's Class 1 schedule, and uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices gates them, the relief at or below HMRC's NIC - NS1", + "seed": 0 } ], "outputs": [ "would_claim_marriage_allowance", "would_claim_scp", "attends_private_school_random_draw", - "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" + "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", + "is_apprentice" ], "nonnegative_outputs": [ "attends_private_school_random_draw", "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" ], - "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced." + "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced. is_apprentice has no FRS source (no apprenticeship variable in the 2022-23 to 2024-25 adult tables; TRAIN2, NI3TRAIN and TRAINEE code government employment schemes) and is drawn to DfE's point-in-time rate for employees aged 21 to 24 only." }, { "stage": "frs_household_draws", @@ -6046,7 +6057,7 @@ "frs_benunit_capital", "would_claim_uc" ], - "notes": "Runs after the last universal_credit_reported writer and before CGT cloning. Redraws every SPI benefit unit's capital, since the channel's incomes are SPI draws and the copied FRS answer no longer belongs to the unit (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), from weighted base-FRS units with available capital in cells of UC reporter status by financial investment income band (interest, dividends and other investment income; property income is excluded because TOTCAPB4 counts accounts and assets) by is_uc_couple (two retained FRS claimant/partner roles, independently of legal is_married) by dependent-children band. A cell with fewer than 20 donors widens in the declared coarsening order, and reporter status is never coarsened. It then applies the monotone reported-UC OR refresh. The recorded capitals add property (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), since policyengine-uk 2.162.3 replaces every capital source with a recorded figure of 0 or more and takes it as countable, and TOTCAPB4 has no property. WAS records the property for the household, and each means test counts the claimant's and partner's own capital (UC Regs 2013 reg 18; SPCA 2002 s.5). The household reference person's benefit unit therefore holds all of the household's property, and no other unit records any (María's ruling of 2026-10-12), since that person is the one in whose name the home is owned or rented, the best single reading of the owner. The engine shares household property over every claimant or partner instead, which puts a parent's property on an adult child's claim; a recorded figure consumes its own unit's share, so the engine's shares reach only a unit on the unavailable sentinel, and since policyengine-uk 2.136.1 such a unit takes its share whatever a recording unit beside it holds (the receipt counts any unit left there). The property counts at 90% of its value, market value less 10% for the costs of sale, less the debt secured on it, class by class and floored at zero per class (UC Regs 2013 reg 49(1); SPC Regs 2002 reg 19), as policyengine-uk values Universal Credit property capital. The was_wealth stage draws the debt on other residential and on non-residential property (microcosm#1095), and owned land carries none, as the engine has no input for it (pe-uk#1969). Universal Credit counts other residential and non-residential property, and Pension Credit counts those and owned land. A unit that reports Universal Credit keeps its receipt and records the carrier alone for Universal Credit, since DWP assessed its capital to pay it and the property is imputed without that receipt. frs_benunit_capital stays the financial carrier, and its unavailable sentinel -1 passes through to both. Both recorded figures project to later years by GDP per head, as financial capital does, while policyengine-uk 2.139.1 projects other residential property by house prices, so the other residential property in a recorded figure grows faster than the engine's own projection of it; by the OBR indices the engine carries, it grows 1.5% faster by 2025 and 2.0% by 2026 from a 2024 base." + "notes": "Runs after the last universal_credit_reported writer and before CGT cloning. Redraws every SPI benefit unit's capital, since the channel's incomes are SPI draws and the copied FRS answer no longer belongs to the unit (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), from weighted base-FRS units with available capital in cells of UC reporter status by financial investment income band (interest, dividends and other investment income; property income is excluded because TOTCAPB4 counts accounts and assets) by is_uc_couple (two retained FRS claimant/partner roles, independently of legal is_married) by dependent-children band. A cell with fewer than 20 donors widens in the declared coarsening order, and reporter status is never coarsened. It then applies the monotone reported-UC OR refresh. The recorded capitals add property (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), since policyengine-uk 2.162.8 replaces every capital source with a recorded figure of 0 or more and takes it as countable, and TOTCAPB4 has no property. WAS records the property for the household, and each means test counts the claimant's and partner's own capital (UC Regs 2013 reg 18; SPCA 2002 s.5). The household reference person's benefit unit therefore holds all of the household's property, and no other unit records any (María's ruling of 2026-10-12), since that person is the one in whose name the home is owned or rented, the best single reading of the owner. The engine shares household property over every claimant or partner instead, which puts a parent's property on an adult child's claim; a recorded figure consumes its own unit's share, so the engine's shares reach only a unit on the unavailable sentinel, and since policyengine-uk 2.136.1 such a unit takes its share whatever a recording unit beside it holds (the receipt counts any unit left there). The property counts at 90% of its value, market value less 10% for the costs of sale, less the debt secured on it, class by class and floored at zero per class (UC Regs 2013 reg 49(1); SPC Regs 2002 reg 19), as policyengine-uk values Universal Credit property capital. The was_wealth stage draws the debt on other residential and on non-residential property (microcosm#1095), and owned land carries none, as the engine has no input for it (pe-uk#1969). Universal Credit counts other residential and non-residential property, and Pension Credit counts those and owned land. A unit that reports Universal Credit keeps its receipt and records the carrier alone for Universal Credit, since DWP assessed its capital to pay it and the property is imputed without that receipt. frs_benunit_capital stays the financial carrier, and its unavailable sentinel -1 passes through to both. Both recorded figures project to later years by GDP per head, as financial capital does, while policyengine-uk 2.139.1 projects other residential property by house prices, so the other residential property in a recorded figure grows faster than the engine's own projection of it; by the OBR indices the engine carries, it grows 1.5% faster by 2025 and 2.0% by 2026 from a 2024 base." }, { "stage": "uc_take_up", @@ -6896,7 +6907,7 @@ { "role": "policy_parameters", "kind": "versioned_parameter_tree", - "dependency": "policyengine-uk>=2.162.3 via microcosm-build[uk]", + "dependency": "policyengine-uk>=2.162.8 via microcosm-build[uk]", "parameters": [ "gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount" ], @@ -6977,7 +6988,7 @@ { "role": "policy_parameters", "kind": "versioned_parameter_tree", - "dependency": "policyengine-uk>=2.162.3 via microcosm-build[uk]", + "dependency": "policyengine-uk>=2.162.8 via microcosm-build[uk]", "parameters": [ "gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount", "gov.hmrc.cgt.badr.lifetime_limit", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml index ad74f4c55b..90b98bea6e 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml @@ -1029,7 +1029,7 @@ stages: nonnegative_outputs: - maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage - max_free_entitlement_hours_used - notes: Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; salts are output variable names. Reported positive receipt anchors are transient and consumed only. The Universal Credit draw's population is the benefit units with a UC claimant or partner (is_uc_claimant) aged 18 or over and under Pension Credit qualifying age (66 for everyone who can reach it in this release), the age and role conditions of policyengine-uk 2.162.3's is_uc_eligible; the engine lockstep test pins it and names the three engine cases not mirrored (16- and 17-year-old claimants under the UC Regs 2013 reg 8 exceptions, mixed-age couples on the Pension Credit route, and from 2.128.0 pension-age families moved onto Universal Credit when their legacy benefit closes, SI 2014/1230 reg 60A). So the contract rate is a share of those units, an anchor outside them stays true, and any other unit is never drawn; a unit with no claimant or partner of that age keeps its reported Housing Benefit, which a claim it cannot make no longer zeroes (#882, microcosm#867, microcosm#1095). The universal childcare flag is nested under the working-parent one. A unit that claims the extended hours claims the universal hours, and any other unit claims them at the contract's universal_childcare rate, the rate conditional on not claiming the extended hours; the extended draw is unchanged. childcare_copy_take_up later re-draws the childcare flags and hours of the support and CGT copies on their own benefit units. A child of DfE age 0 or 1 (its age on 31 December of the fit's model year, the age DfE counts by) in a unit that claims the working-parent hours uses them at its age's contract rate, extended_childcare_age_0_usage or extended_childcare_age_1_usage (DfE registers far fewer of the youngest eligible children than of those aged 2 to 4, and fewer at 9 to 11 months than at age 1); a child that does not gets max_free_entitlement_hours_used 0, so the engine funds it no hours, and every other person keeps the engine's default of 30. + notes: Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; salts are output variable names. Reported positive receipt anchors are transient and consumed only. The Universal Credit draw's population is the benefit units with a UC claimant or partner (is_uc_claimant) aged 18 or over and under Pension Credit qualifying age (66 for everyone who can reach it in this release), the age and role conditions of policyengine-uk 2.162.8's is_uc_eligible; the engine lockstep test pins it and names the three engine cases not mirrored (16- and 17-year-old claimants under the UC Regs 2013 reg 8 exceptions, mixed-age couples on the Pension Credit route, and from 2.128.0 pension-age families moved onto Universal Credit when their legacy benefit closes, SI 2014/1230 reg 60A). So the contract rate is a share of those units, an anchor outside them stays true, and any other unit is never drawn; a unit with no claimant or partner of that age keeps its reported Housing Benefit, which a claim it cannot make no longer zeroes (#882, microcosm#867, microcosm#1095). The universal childcare flag is nested under the working-parent one. A unit that claims the extended hours claims the universal hours, and any other unit claims them at the contract's universal_childcare rate, the rate conditional on not claiming the extended hours; the extended draw is unchanged. childcare_copy_take_up later re-draws the childcare flags and hours of the support and CGT copies on their own benefit units. A child of DfE age 0 or 1 (its age on 31 December of the fit's model year, the age DfE counts by) in a unit that claims the working-parent hours uses them at its age's contract rate, extended_childcare_age_0_usage or extended_childcare_age_1_usage (DfE registers far fewer of the youngest eligible children than of those aged 2 to 4, and fewer at 9 to 11 months than at age 1); a child that does not gets max_free_entitlement_hours_used 0, so the engine funds it no hours, and every other person keeps the engine's default of 30. - stage: frs_person_draws survey: Family Resources Survey 2024-25 source: Sourced UK take-up contract rates and identity-keyed deterministic draws. @@ -1062,15 +1062,24 @@ stages: contract_key: tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share period_source: build_year dtype: float64 + - kind: assign_binary_from_rate + output: is_apprentice + draw: is_apprentice + rate_key: apprentice_stock_19_to_24 + assignment_unit: person + eligibility: 'employees (employment_status FT_EMPLOYED or PT_EMPLOYED, from frs_employment) aged 21 to 24: SSCBA 1992 s.9A already zero-rates every earner under 21 and s.9B ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so no other age changes employer NICs, and leaving them False keeps is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged; the flagged keep their age-related minimum_wage too, because policyengine-uk 2.162.8 (policyengine-uk#2683) gives the apprentice rate only under 19 or with is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship, which the build leaves at its default (False), and the stage refuses an engine without that split or the s.9B threshold' + rate_derivation: 'the contract''s apprentice_stock_19_to_24 is DfE''s England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24, a point-in-time count taken as uniform across those ages and UK-wide; the target is r times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the frame''s household weights, and eligible employees are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it (uc_take_up''s rule), or all of them when they weigh no more than it; the receipt records the target, the flagged weight, the support bands and the relief the flags imply at the installed engine''s Class 1 schedule, and uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices gates them, the relief at or below HMRC''s NIC - NS1' + seed: 0 outputs: - would_claim_marriage_allowance - would_claim_scp - attends_private_school_random_draw - tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share + - is_apprentice nonnegative_outputs: - attends_private_school_random_draw - tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share - notes: Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced. + notes: 'Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced. is_apprentice has no FRS source (no apprenticeship variable in the 2022-23 to 2024-25 adult tables; TRAIN2, NI3TRAIN and TRAINEE code government employment schemes) and is drawn to DfE''s point-in-time rate for employees aged 21 to 24 only.' - stage: frs_household_draws survey: Family Resources Survey 2024-25 source: Sourced UK stochastic contract rates and identity-keyed deterministic draws. @@ -4881,7 +4890,7 @@ stages: rewrites: - frs_benunit_capital - would_claim_uc - notes: Runs after the last universal_credit_reported writer and before CGT cloning. Redraws every SPI benefit unit's capital, since the channel's incomes are SPI draws and the copied FRS answer no longer belongs to the unit (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), from weighted base-FRS units with available capital in cells of UC reporter status by financial investment income band (interest, dividends and other investment income; property income is excluded because TOTCAPB4 counts accounts and assets) by is_uc_couple (two retained FRS claimant/partner roles, independently of legal is_married) by dependent-children band. A cell with fewer than 20 donors widens in the declared coarsening order, and reporter status is never coarsened. It then applies the monotone reported-UC OR refresh. The recorded capitals add property (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), since policyengine-uk 2.162.3 replaces every capital source with a recorded figure of 0 or more and takes it as countable, and TOTCAPB4 has no property. WAS records the property for the household, and each means test counts the claimant's and partner's own capital (UC Regs 2013 reg 18; SPCA 2002 s.5). The household reference person's benefit unit therefore holds all of the household's property, and no other unit records any (María's ruling of 2026-10-12), since that person is the one in whose name the home is owned or rented, the best single reading of the owner. The engine shares household property over every claimant or partner instead, which puts a parent's property on an adult child's claim; a recorded figure consumes its own unit's share, so the engine's shares reach only a unit on the unavailable sentinel, and since policyengine-uk 2.136.1 such a unit takes its share whatever a recording unit beside it holds (the receipt counts any unit left there). The property counts at 90% of its value, market value less 10% for the costs of sale, less the debt secured on it, class by class and floored at zero per class (UC Regs 2013 reg 49(1); SPC Regs 2002 reg 19), as policyengine-uk values Universal Credit property capital. The was_wealth stage draws the debt on other residential and on non-residential property (microcosm#1095), and owned land carries none, as the engine has no input for it (pe-uk#1969). Universal Credit counts other residential and non-residential property, and Pension Credit counts those and owned land. A unit that reports Universal Credit keeps its receipt and records the carrier alone for Universal Credit, since DWP assessed its capital to pay it and the property is imputed without that receipt. frs_benunit_capital stays the financial carrier, and its unavailable sentinel -1 passes through to both. Both recorded figures project to later years by GDP per head, as financial capital does, while policyengine-uk 2.139.1 projects other residential property by house prices, so the other residential property in a recorded figure grows faster than the engine's own projection of it; by the OBR indices the engine carries, it grows 1.5% faster by 2025 and 2.0% by 2026 from a 2024 base. + notes: Runs after the last universal_credit_reported writer and before CGT cloning. Redraws every SPI benefit unit's capital, since the channel's incomes are SPI draws and the copied FRS answer no longer belongs to the unit (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), from weighted base-FRS units with available capital in cells of UC reporter status by financial investment income band (interest, dividends and other investment income; property income is excluded because TOTCAPB4 counts accounts and assets) by is_uc_couple (two retained FRS claimant/partner roles, independently of legal is_married) by dependent-children band. A cell with fewer than 20 donors widens in the declared coarsening order, and reporter status is never coarsened. It then applies the monotone reported-UC OR refresh. The recorded capitals add property (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), since policyengine-uk 2.162.8 replaces every capital source with a recorded figure of 0 or more and takes it as countable, and TOTCAPB4 has no property. WAS records the property for the household, and each means test counts the claimant's and partner's own capital (UC Regs 2013 reg 18; SPCA 2002 s.5). The household reference person's benefit unit therefore holds all of the household's property, and no other unit records any (María's ruling of 2026-10-12), since that person is the one in whose name the home is owned or rented, the best single reading of the owner. The engine shares household property over every claimant or partner instead, which puts a parent's property on an adult child's claim; a recorded figure consumes its own unit's share, so the engine's shares reach only a unit on the unavailable sentinel, and since policyengine-uk 2.136.1 such a unit takes its share whatever a recording unit beside it holds (the receipt counts any unit left there). The property counts at 90% of its value, market value less 10% for the costs of sale, less the debt secured on it, class by class and floored at zero per class (UC Regs 2013 reg 49(1); SPC Regs 2002 reg 19), as policyengine-uk values Universal Credit property capital. The was_wealth stage draws the debt on other residential and on non-residential property (microcosm#1095), and owned land carries none, as the engine has no input for it (pe-uk#1969). Universal Credit counts other residential and non-residential property, and Pension Credit counts those and owned land. A unit that reports Universal Credit keeps its receipt and records the carrier alone for Universal Credit, since DWP assessed its capital to pay it and the property is imputed without that receipt. frs_benunit_capital stays the financial carrier, and its unavailable sentinel -1 passes through to both. Both recorded figures project to later years by GDP per head, as financial capital does, while policyengine-uk 2.139.1 projects other residential property by house prices, so the other residential property in a recorded figure grows faster than the engine's own projection of it; by the OBR indices the engine carries, it grows 1.5% faster by 2025 and 2.0% by 2026 from a 2024 base. - stage: uc_take_up survey: Family Resources Survey 2024-25 source: 'DWP Stat-Xplore, Households on Universal Credit by family type and monthly award amount band, April to December 2025, applied to PolicyEngine-UK pre-take-up Universal Credit awards after the SPI income chain and UC capital coherence.' @@ -5545,7 +5554,7 @@ stages: artifacts: - role: policy_parameters kind: versioned_parameter_tree - dependency: policyengine-uk>=2.162.3 via microcosm-build[uk] + dependency: policyengine-uk>=2.162.8 via microcosm-build[uk] parameters: - gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount instant_rule: raw dated parameter files evaluated at 1 June of the build period's tax year @@ -5610,7 +5619,7 @@ stages: artifacts: - role: policy_parameters kind: versioned_parameter_tree - dependency: policyengine-uk>=2.162.3 via microcosm-build[uk] + dependency: policyengine-uk>=2.162.8 via microcosm-build[uk] parameters: - gov.hmrc.cgt.annual_exempt_amount - gov.hmrc.cgt.badr.lifetime_limit diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json index f7fcad63ab..7192c0905b 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/take_up_contract.json @@ -965,6 +965,28 @@ "derivation": "sum(monthly children with used accounts) / annual-unique children / 12, per HMRC financial year; quality report defines a used account", "citation": "A calibration adjustment, not a measured routed-expenditure share: an account-active-duration proxy assuming uniform spend through the year and full routing in active months; HMRC warns payment dates need not be care dates. Assigned as the published mean, no invented distribution. Denominator is the whole year; the engine defines the share over the eligible period, and the two coincide while tax_free_childcare_eligible_declaration_periods is 0 or 4. HMRC's used-account definition changed from April 2025 and applies to annual figures from FY2024-25." } + }, + { + "key": "apprentice_stock_19_to_24", + "output": "is_apprentice", + "entity": "person", + "values": { + "2019-08-01": 0.037317, + "2020-08-01": 0.037817, + "2021-08-01": 0.036728, + "2022-08-01": 0.038327, + "2023-08-01": 0.036632, + "2024-08-01": 0.036887 + }, + "source": { + "source": "DfE Apprenticeships statistics, academic year 2024/25, data set 'Geography Region - starts, achievements, participation, population by age, level' (app-geography-population-202425-q4.csv), National rows, apps_level Total, age_summary 19-24", + "agency": "Department for Education", + "status": "sourced_administrative_derived", + "url": "https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/data-catalogue/data-set/e5a4761f-434a-423a-bb0a-73ca3092dfc3", + "csv_sha256": "be614d4acb481b661623f613df310a5148c1500279bdedd193af5d3571972cf8", + "derivation": "(participation - starts) / population_estimate for England, ages 19 to 24, per academic year, rounded to six decimals: the apprentices already in learning when the year began, per head (2024/25: (252,960 - 97,240) / 4,221,504 = 0.036887)", + "citation": "Apprentices in learning at a point in time per head of population aged 19 to 24 in England. DfE publishes no point-in-time count: participation counts everyone in learning at any point in the academic year, so the in-year rate (5,992 per 100,000 in 2024/25) overstates how many are apprentices at once. Participation less the year's starts is the number already in learning on 1 August; in a steady state it is also the year's average number in learning, though autumn starts put the year's low near 1 August. Participation takes age at 31 August and starts take age at the start, so the two differ at the band's edges. DfE publishes no single-year split of 19 to 24, so the rate is taken as uniform across those ages; Medr's single-year Welsh rates fall with age, which points to a lower rate at 21 to 24. England's rate is applied UK-wide until the Scottish (SDS Modern Apprenticeships in training), Welsh (Medr) and Northern Irish (ApprenticeshipsNI) series are added; SDS's point-in-time count is lower per head. frs_person_draws realizes it among employees aged 21 to 24 at the frame's weights." + } } ], "continuous": [ diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py index f842130325..f56ad3e5dd 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py @@ -2198,6 +2198,10 @@ def _ledger_compile_parity_required_artifacts( "rank_basis", "p_basis", "rate_sources", + # The apprentice draw (microcosm#1373). + "rate_key", + "maximum_relative_realization_deviation", + "maximum_implied_relief", } ), artifact_keys=frozenset({"stage_evidence"}), diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/calibration_run.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/calibration_run.py index 9b72a3faa2..6298dbc81e 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/calibration_run.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/calibration_run.py @@ -138,6 +138,7 @@ "uk_stage_regional_home_values_ranking", "uk_stage_property_purchases_fit", "uk_stage_uc_legacy_closure_take_up_contract", + "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices", # Weight-independent like the BRMA enum below, and its column exists from # frs_relationships onward (#791). "uk_ons_household_type_enum_domain", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py index 9c80c14aa0..4aa6737b1b 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_person_draws.py @@ -1,8 +1,40 @@ -"""UK FRS person-grain stochastic assignments.""" +"""UK FRS person-grain stochastic assignments. + +``is_apprentice`` (microcosm#1372) has no FRS source: the 2022-23 +to 2024-25 adult tables carry no apprenticeship variable, and ``TRAIN2``, +``NI3TRAIN`` and ``TRAINEE`` code government employment schemes, not +apprenticeships. policyengine-uk zero-rates employer Class 1 NICs for a +relevant apprentice under 25 (SSCBA 1992 s.9B), and a person under 21 already +gets the s.9A zero rate by age, so the flag changes employer NICs only at ages +21 to 24. The stage draws it there, for employees only. Its target is r times +the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the frame's own household weights, +where r (``apprentice_stock_19_to_24``) is DfE's England apprentices in +learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per +head aged 19 to 24, a point-in-time count rather than the in-year one +(microcosm#1373). Eligible employees are flagged in the order of their +identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest the target, and the +stage's receipt records how near it came, and the employer NICs relief the +flags imply at the engine's own Class 1 parameters. Ages under 21 and from 25 +keep the engine default (False), which leaves ``is_in_non_advanced_education`` +(child benefit and Universal Credit qualifying young person status), +``minimum_wage``, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged for +them. + +The flag is read twice in policyengine-uk: by the s.9B threshold (from 2.160.0, +policyengine-uk#2505) and by the apprentice minimum wage. Before 2.162.8 the +apprentice rate applied to every flagged person, so a flagged 21 to 24-year-old +lost the adult minimum wage, which moves the Tax-Free Childcare, extended +childcare and Childcare Offer for Wales income tests. From 2.162.8 +(policyengine-uk#2683) the rate applies only under 19 or with +``is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship``, which the build leaves at its default +(False), so the flagged keep their age-related minimum wage. The stage refuses +an installed engine without both readings. +""" from __future__ import annotations -from dataclasses import dataclass +from collections.abc import Mapping +from dataclasses import dataclass, field import numpy as np import pandas as pd @@ -12,12 +44,14 @@ assign_binary_from_rate, stable_identity_uniforms, ) +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_employment import FRS_EMPSTATI_EMPLOYMENT_STATUS from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.national_frame import ( uk_household_weight_kind, uk_national_frame, uk_time_period, validate_uk_national_frame, ) +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.receipt_counts import distinct_count, support_band from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.take_up_contract import UKTakeUpContract from microcosm.frame import Frame @@ -26,11 +60,33 @@ "would_claim_scp", "attends_private_school_random_draw", "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", + "is_apprentice", ) FRS_PERSON_DRAW_NONNEGATIVE_OUTPUT_COLUMNS = ( "attends_private_school_random_draw", "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", ) +APPRENTICE_OUTPUT = "is_apprentice" +APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY = "apprentice_stock_19_to_24" +# SSCBA 1992 s.9A gives every earner under 21 the zero rate by age, and s.9B +# ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so only ages 21 to 24 are drawn. +APPRENTICE_MIN_AGE = 21 +APPRENTICE_MAX_AGE_EXCLUSIVE = 25 +APPRENTICE_EMPLOYEE_STATUSES = ("FT_EMPLOYED", "PT_EMPLOYED") +if not set(APPRENTICE_EMPLOYEE_STATUSES) <= set( + FRS_EMPSTATI_EMPLOYMENT_STATUS.values() +): + raise RuntimeError("apprentice employee statuses must be FRS EMPSTATI statuses.") +# The engine readings is_apprentice needs: the s.9B threshold the flag exists +# for, and the minimum wage's split from it (policyengine-uk#2683). +APPRENTICE_ENGINE_VARIABLES = ( + "qualifies_for_apprentice_minimum_wage", + "is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship", +) +APPRENTICE_ENGINE_PARAMETER = ( + "gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1.thresholds." + "apprentice_upper_secondary_threshold" +) UK_PERSON_DRAW_DECLARED_SEEDS = { output: 0 for output in FRS_PERSON_DRAW_OUTPUT_COLUMNS @@ -44,25 +100,60 @@ class UKFRSPersonDrawsStageTransform: contract: UKTakeUpContract stage: SourceStageSpec + last_receipt: Mapping[str, object] | None = field(default=None, init=False) def __call__(self, frame: Frame) -> Frame: - return add_frs_person_draws(frame, contract=self.contract) + result, receipt = add_frs_person_draws_with_receipt( + frame, contract=self.contract + ) + object.__setattr__(self, "last_receipt", receipt) + return result @staticmethod def output_columns() -> tuple[str, ...]: return FRS_PERSON_DRAW_OUTPUT_COLUMNS + def checkpoint_metadata(self) -> dict[str, object]: + if self.last_receipt is None: + raise RuntimeError("checkpoint metadata requires a completed stage run.") + return { + "evidence": { + "stage": "frs_person_draws", + "apprentice_receipt": dict(self.last_receipt), + } + } + def add_frs_person_draws(frame: Frame, *, contract: UKTakeUpContract) -> Frame: + return add_frs_person_draws_with_receipt(frame, contract=contract)[0] + + +def add_frs_person_draws_with_receipt( + frame: Frame, *, contract: UKTakeUpContract +) -> tuple[Frame, Mapping[str, object]]: + """The stage's frame and the receipt of its ``is_apprentice`` draw.""" + period = uk_time_period(frame) if int(str(period).split("-", maxsplit=1)[0]) != contract.build_year: raise ValueError( "frs_person_draws assign_period_constant requires the frame time " f"period {period!r} to equal contract build_year {contract.build_year}." ) - _require_tax_free_childcare_routed_share_variable() + system = _installed_uk_system() + _require_tax_free_childcare_routed_share_variable(system) + schedule = apprentice_relief_schedule(system, period) person = frame.table("person").copy() - derived = derive_frs_person_draws(person, contract=contract) + if APPRENTICE_OUTPUT in person.columns: + raise ValueError( + f"{APPRENTICE_OUTPUT!r} is already stored: frs_person_draws is its " + "only writer." + ) + derived, receipt = derive_frs_person_draws_with_receipt( + person, + contract=contract, + person_weights=uk_person_household_weights(frame), + relief_schedule=schedule, + ) for column in FRS_PERSON_DRAW_OUTPUT_COLUMNS: person[column] = derived[column].to_numpy() result = uk_national_frame( @@ -75,12 +166,39 @@ def add_frs_person_draws(frame: Frame, *, contract: UKTakeUpContract) -> Frame: mass_log=frame.mass_log, ) validate_uk_national_frame(result) - return result + return result, receipt def derive_frs_person_draws( - person: pd.DataFrame, *, contract: UKTakeUpContract + person: pd.DataFrame, + *, + contract: UKTakeUpContract, + person_weights: np.ndarray, + relief_schedule: Mapping[str, float] | None = None, ) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Return the stage's person draws. + + ``person_weights`` are each person's household weight, which set + ``is_apprentice``'s target. + """ + + return derive_frs_person_draws_with_receipt( + person, + contract=contract, + person_weights=person_weights, + relief_schedule=relief_schedule, + )[0] + + +def derive_frs_person_draws_with_receipt( + person: pd.DataFrame, + *, + contract: UKTakeUpContract, + person_weights: np.ndarray, + relief_schedule: Mapping[str, float] | None = None, +) -> tuple[pd.DataFrame, Mapping[str, object]]: + """The stage's person draws and the receipt of its ``is_apprentice`` draw.""" + ids = person["person_id"].to_numpy() values = pd.DataFrame(index=person.index) values["would_claim_marriage_allowance"] = assign_binary_from_rate( @@ -105,23 +223,236 @@ def derive_frs_person_draws( values["tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share"] = contract.rate( "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", contract.build_year ) - return values + apprentices = derive_is_apprentice( + person, + rate=contract.rate(APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY, contract.build_year), + person_weights=person_weights, + relief_schedule=relief_schedule, + ) + values[APPRENTICE_OUTPUT] = apprentices.flags + return values, {"build_year": contract.build_year, **apprentices.receipt} -def _require_tax_free_childcare_routed_share_variable() -> None: - """Fail before export when an installed UK engine cannot consume the input.""" +@dataclass(frozen=True) +class UKApprenticeDraw: + """``is_apprentice`` and the receipt of how the draw met its target.""" + + flags: np.ndarray + receipt: Mapping[str, object] + + +def derive_is_apprentice( + person: pd.DataFrame, + *, + rate: float, + person_weights: np.ndarray | None = None, + relief_schedule: Mapping[str, float] | None = None, +) -> UKApprenticeDraw: + """Draw ``is_apprentice`` for employees aged 21 to 24. + + ``rate`` is apprentices per head of population at those ages, so the + target is ``rate * W(21 to 24)``. Eligible employees are flagged in the + order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest the + target (uc_take_up's rule, microcosm#1334), so the stage realizes it to + within one person's weight rather than only in expectation. When the + eligible weight falls short of the target every eligible employee is + flagged and the receipt says the draw was cap-bound. + + Given a ``relief_schedule`` (the engine's Class 1 rate and its secondary + and apprentice upper secondary thresholds, annual), the receipt also + records the relief the flags imply: the rate on each flagged employee's + pay between the two thresholds, weighted. Pay stands in for NIC earnings, + so it is an estimate of the s.9B relief, not the engine's figure. + """ + + if "employment_status" not in person.columns: + raise ValueError( + f"{APPRENTICE_OUTPUT} needs employment_status from frs_employment; " + "it would otherwise flag people who are not employees." + ) + if not 0.0 <= float(rate) <= 1.0: + raise ValueError(f"{APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY} must lie in [0, 1]; got {rate}.") + weights = ( + np.ones(len(person), dtype=float) + if person_weights is None + else np.asarray(person_weights, dtype=float) + ) + if weights.shape != (len(person),): + raise ValueError("person_weights must hold one weight per person.") + age = pd.to_numeric(person["age"], errors="coerce").to_numpy(dtype=float) + in_ages = (age >= APPRENTICE_MIN_AGE) & (age < APPRENTICE_MAX_AGE_EXCLUSIVE) + employee = ( + person["employment_status"] + .astype(str) + .isin(APPRENTICE_EMPLOYEE_STATUSES) + .to_numpy() + ) + eligible = in_ages & employee + draws = _draws(person["person_id"].to_numpy(), APPRENTICE_OUTPUT) + population_mass = float(weights[in_ages].sum()) + eligible_mass = float(weights[eligible].sum()) + target = float(rate) * population_mass + threshold = _nearest_target_threshold( + target, draws=draws[eligible], weights=weights[eligible] + ) + flags = eligible & (draws < threshold) + realized = float(weights[flags].sum()) + # Before the support channels every household is its own source household. + households = person["person_household_id"].to_numpy() + population_support = distinct_count(households, in_ages, weights) + eligible_support = distinct_count(households, eligible, weights) + flagged_support = distinct_count(households, flags, weights) + receipt: dict[str, object] = { + "output": APPRENTICE_OUTPUT, + "rate_key": APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY, + "rate": float(rate), + "ages": [APPRENTICE_MIN_AGE, APPRENTICE_MAX_AGE_EXCLUSIVE - 1], + "eligible_statuses": list(APPRENTICE_EMPLOYEE_STATUSES), + "population_mass": population_mass, + "eligible_mass": eligible_mass, + "target": target, + "cap_bound": bool(target > 0.0 and eligible_mass <= target), + "population_support": support_band(population_support), + "eligible_support": support_band(eligible_support), + "flagged_support": support_band(flagged_support), + "realized_mass": realized, + "realization_deviation": realized - target, + } + # A weighted total carried by one to nine households is withheld, with the + # figures that would give it back: the target is the rate times the + # population, and the deviation is the flagged weight less the target. + if 0 < population_support < 10: + receipt.update(population_mass="<10", target="<10", realization_deviation="<10") + if 0 < eligible_support < 10: + receipt["eligible_mass"] = "<10" + if relief_schedule is not None and "employment_income" in person.columns: + pay = pd.to_numeric(person["employment_income"], errors="coerce") + relieved = np.clip( + np.minimum( + pay.fillna(0.0).to_numpy(dtype=float), + float(relief_schedule["apprentice_upper_secondary_threshold"]), + ) + - float(relief_schedule["secondary_threshold"]), + 0.0, + None, + ) + receipt["relief_schedule"] = dict(relief_schedule) + receipt["implied_relief"] = float( + relief_schedule["rate"] * (weights[flags] * relieved[flags]).sum() + ) + if 0 < flagged_support < 10: + receipt.update(realized_mass="<10", realization_deviation="<10") + if "implied_relief" in receipt: + receipt["implied_relief"] = "<10" + return UKApprenticeDraw(flags=flags, receipt=receipt) + + +def _nearest_target_threshold( + need: float, *, draws: np.ndarray, weights: np.ndarray +) -> float: + """The uniform below which eligible people are flagged. + + People are taken in the order of their uniform until their weight is + nearest ``need``; flagging no one is a candidate too, when ``need`` sits + nearer zero than the first person's weight. When the eligible weight is no + more than ``need``, everyone eligible is flagged. + """ + + if need <= 0.0 or draws.size == 0: + return 0.0 + if float(weights.sum()) <= need: + return 1.0 + order = np.argsort(draws, kind="stable") + cumulative = np.cumsum(weights[order]) + last = min(int(np.searchsorted(cumulative, need)), len(order) - 1) + if last > 0 and abs(cumulative[last - 1] - need) < abs(cumulative[last] - need): + last -= 1 + if last == 0 and abs(need) < abs(cumulative[0] - need): + return float(draws[order[0]]) + return float(np.nextafter(draws[order[last]], 2.0)) + + +def uk_person_household_weights(frame: Frame) -> np.ndarray: + household_weights = frame.weights_for("household") + weight_by_household = dict( + zip( + frame.table("household")["household_id"].to_numpy(), + np.asarray(household_weights.values, dtype=float), + strict=True, + ) + ) + return ( + frame.table("person")["person_household_id"] + .map(weight_by_household) + .to_numpy(dtype=float) + ) + + +def _installed_uk_system(): + """The installed UK engine's tax-benefit system, or None without one.""" try: import policyengine_uk except ImportError: + return None + return policyengine_uk.CountryTaxBenefitSystem() + + +def _require_tax_free_childcare_routed_share_variable(system=None) -> None: + """Fail before export when an installed UK engine cannot consume the input.""" + + if system is None: return variable = "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" - if variable not in policyengine_uk.CountryTaxBenefitSystem().variables: + if variable not in system.variables: raise ValueError( f"Required variable {variable!r} is not defined in policyengine-uk." ) +def apprentice_relief_schedule(system, period) -> dict[str, float | int] | None: + """The engine's Class 1 schedule for the flags' relief, or None without one. + + Refuses an engine that would misread ``is_apprentice``: one without the + s.9B threshold (policyengine-uk before 2.160.0) or without the minimum + wage's split from the flag (before 2.162.8, policyengine-uk#2683), which + would give every flagged employee the apprentice minimum wage. The values + are the ones the engine charges in the stage's year, at its start, as a + year's ``parameters(period)`` reads them; weekly thresholds are annualized + over 52 weeks as ``secondary_class_1_threshold`` does. + """ + + if system is None: + return None + missing = [ + name for name in APPRENTICE_ENGINE_VARIABLES if name not in system.variables + ] + if missing: + raise ValueError( + f"{APPRENTICE_OUTPUT} needs policyengine-uk 2.162.8 or later, which " + "gives the apprentice minimum wage only under 19 or in the first year " + f"(policyengine-uk#2683); the installed engine lacks {missing}." + ) + year = int(str(period).split("-", maxsplit=1)[0]) + parameters = system.parameters(f"{year}-01-01") + class_1 = parameters.gov.hmrc.national_insurance.class_1 + if not hasattr(class_1.thresholds, "apprentice_upper_secondary_threshold"): + raise ValueError( + f"{APPRENTICE_OUTPUT} needs the installed engine's " + f"{APPRENTICE_ENGINE_PARAMETER} (policyengine-uk 2.160.0 or later)." + ) + secondary = class_1.employer_scale.components[1] + return { + "period": year, + "rate": float(secondary.rate), + "secondary_threshold": float(secondary.threshold) * 52.0, + "apprentice_upper_secondary_threshold": float( + class_1.thresholds.apprentice_upper_secondary_threshold + ) + * 52.0, + } + + def _draws(ids: np.ndarray, output: str) -> np.ndarray: return stable_identity_uniforms( ids, seed=UK_PERSON_DRAW_DECLARED_SEEDS[output], salt=output diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_take_up.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_take_up.py index 4e44634e33..553228e9ce 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_take_up.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_take_up.py @@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ for output in (*FRS_TAKE_UP_OUTPUT_COLUMNS, *FRS_TAKE_UP_PERSON_OUTPUT_COLUMNS) } # Universal Credit is claimable only by a benefit unit whose claimant or -# partner meets its age conditions: policyengine-uk 2.162.3's ``is_uc_eligible`` +# partner meets its age conditions: policyengine-uk 2.162.8's ``is_uc_eligible`` # (capital aside) needs a single or joint claimant, taken from # ``is_uc_claimant``, who meets UC's minimum age and has not reached Pension # Credit qualifying age. The draw's population is therefore the units with a diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/graph.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/graph.py index 04b3a44d71..21d63ff3d4 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/graph.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/graph.py @@ -253,7 +253,13 @@ ) ) | frozenset({("benunit", "is_married")}), - "frs_person_draws": frozenset({("person", "age")}), + # is_apprentice draws employees aged 21 to 24 at a rate set by the + # frame's weights (microcosm#1372), and its receipt reads their pay for + # the relief the flags imply (microcosm#1373). + "frs_person_draws": frozenset( + ("person", column) + for column in ("age", "employment_status", "employment_income") + ), "frs_household_draws": frozenset(), "frs_brma": None, "was_wealth": None, @@ -806,6 +812,7 @@ def _cells( _Cell("person", "would_claim_scp", "bool"), _Cell("person", "attends_private_school_random_draw", "float64"), _Cell("person", "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", "float64"), + _Cell("person", "is_apprentice", "bool"), ), "frs_household_draws": _cells( "household", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/hmrc_uprating.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/hmrc_uprating.py index a44bf9c67b..2514ac4295 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/hmrc_uprating.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/hmrc_uprating.py @@ -437,8 +437,8 @@ def assert_installed_engine_is_pinned() -> str: jobs and the H2 parity run them on the lock. Three things must hold. The distribution's version is the pinned one, - exactly, so a post-release or a local build of it (``2.162.3.post1``, - ``2.162.3+local``) is refused. ``policyengine_uk`` imports from that + exactly, so a post-release or a local build of it (``2.162.8.post1``, + ``2.162.8+local``) is refused. ``policyengine_uk`` imports from that distribution's own files, so a copy earlier on ``sys.path`` or an editable install is refused. And its ``__init__.py`` matches the distribution's RECORD, so a stale record beside other files is refused where the files diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py index 328c32e080..717448a6df 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/stage_health.py @@ -105,6 +105,8 @@ def uk_stage_health_gate( return _regional_home_values_gate(stage, evidence, parameters) if check == "legacy_closure_take_up": return _legacy_closure_take_up_gate(stage, evidence, parameters) + if check == "apprentice_draw": + return _apprentice_draw_gate(stage, evidence, parameters) return GateResult( name="stage_health", passed=False, @@ -4504,3 +4506,160 @@ def _legacy_closure_take_up_gate( if failures: return _fail(stage, check, failures, details) return _pass(stage, check, details) + + +def _apprentice_draw_gate( + stage: str, + evidence: Mapping[str, object], + parameters: Mapping[str, object], +) -> GateResult: + """``is_apprentice`` realizes the contract's per-head rate (microcosm#1373). + + The receipt must carry the contract's rate for its build year under the + declared key, a target equal to that rate times the weighted population + aged 21 to 24, and its support as printed bands. Unless the eligible + employees weigh no more than the target (cap-bound: every one of them is + flagged), the flagged weight lies within + ``maximum_relative_realization_deviation`` of the target. The relief the + flags imply at the engine's own Class 1 schedule must stay at or below + ``maximum_implied_relief``, HMRC's apprentice relief for every apprentice + under 25 (Vahid's review of microcosm#1373, S1). A figure resting on fewer + than ten source households, which the receipt prints "<10", is named + unchecked, never failed: a small-cell rule never stops a build (María's + ruling of 2026-10-26). + """ + + from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.take_up_contract import load_uk_take_up_contract + + check = "apprentice_draw" + receipt = _mapping( + evidence.get("apprentice_receipt"), label=f"{stage}.apprentice_receipt" + ) + tolerance = _finite_number( + parameters["maximum_relative_realization_deviation"], + label=f"{stage}.maximum_relative_realization_deviation", + ) + if tolerance < 0.0: + raise ValueError( + f"{stage}: maximum_relative_realization_deviation must be >= 0." + ) + ceiling = _finite_number( + parameters["maximum_implied_relief"], label=f"{stage}.maximum_implied_relief" + ) + rate_key = str(parameters["rate_key"]) + failures: list[str] = [] + if receipt.get("rate_key") != rate_key: + failures.append( + f"{stage}: the draw reads {receipt.get('rate_key')!r}, not {rate_key!r}." + ) + build_year = receipt.get("build_year") + if isinstance(build_year, bool) or not isinstance(build_year, int): + raise ValueError(f"{stage}.build_year must be an integer, got {build_year!r}.") + declared = load_uk_take_up_contract().rate(rate_key, build_year) + rate = _finite_number(receipt.get("rate"), label=f"{stage}.rate") + if rate != declared: + failures.append( + f"{stage}: the draw's rate {rate} is not the contract's {declared} " + f"for {build_year}." + ) + unchecked = [ + key + for key in ( + "population_mass", + "eligible_mass", + "target", + "realized_mass", + "realization_deviation", + "implied_relief", + ) + if receipt.get(key) == "<10" + ] + + def _figure(key: str) -> float | None: + if key in unchecked: + return None + return _finite_number(receipt.get(key), label=f"{stage}.{key}") + + population = _figure("population_mass") + eligible = _figure("eligible_mass") + target = _figure("target") + realized = _figure("realized_mass") + printed = _figure("realization_deviation") + if ( + target is not None + and population is not None + and not math.isclose( + target, rate * population, rel_tol=_FLOAT_RELATIVE_TOLERANCE + ) + ): + failures.append( + f"{stage}: target {target} is not the rate times the population aged " + f"21 to 24 ({rate * population})." + ) + for key in ("population_support", "eligible_support", "flagged_support"): + band = receipt.get(key) + if band != 0 and band not in _SUPPORT_BANDS: + failures.append(f"{stage}: {key} {band!r} is not a printed band.") + cap_bound = receipt.get("cap_bound") + if not isinstance(cap_bound, bool): + raise ValueError(f"{stage}.cap_bound must be a boolean, got {cap_bound!r}.") + if target is not None and eligible is not None: + shortfall = target > 0.0 and eligible <= target + if cap_bound != shortfall: + failures.append( + f"{stage}: cap_bound is {cap_bound} with eligible weight {eligible} " + f"against target {target}." + ) + relative: float | None = None + if realized is not None and target is not None: + if printed is not None and not math.isclose( + printed, realized - target, rel_tol=1e-9, abs_tol=1e-6 * max(target, 1.0) + ): + failures.append( + f"{stage}: realization_deviation {printed} is not realized minus " + f"target ({realized - target})." + ) + if cap_bound: + if eligible is not None and not math.isclose( + realized, eligible, rel_tol=1e-9 + ): + failures.append( + f"{stage}: a cap-bound draw flags every eligible employee, but " + f"{realized} of {eligible} is flagged." + ) + else: + relative = ( + abs(realized - target) / target if target > 0.0 else float(realized > 0) + ) + if relative > tolerance: + failures.append( + f"{stage}: the flagged weight is {relative:.4f} of the target " + f"away from it, above {tolerance}." + ) + relief = receipt.get("implied_relief") + implied: float | None = None + if relief is None: + failures.append( + f"{stage}: the receipt records no implied relief, so the draw cannot be " + "held below HMRC's apprentice relief." + ) + elif relief != "<10": + implied = _finite_number(relief, label=f"{stage}.implied_relief") + if implied > ceiling: + failures.append( + f"{stage}: the flags imply {implied:,.0f} of relief, above the " + f"{ceiling:,.0f} ceiling." + ) + details = { + "rate_key": rate_key, + "rate": rate, + "target": target, + "cap_bound": cap_bound, + "relative_realization_deviation": relative, + "implied_relief": implied, + "maximum_implied_relief": ceiling, + "figures_unchecked_small_cells": unchecked, + } + if failures: + return _fail(stage, check, failures, details) + return _pass(stage, check, details) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/terminal_gates.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/terminal_gates.py index c95ff2a86b..d929ebf25a 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/terminal_gates.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/terminal_gates.py @@ -350,6 +350,7 @@ def __post_init__(self) -> None: "person.student_loan_balance", "person.student_loan_plan", "person.tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", + "person.is_apprentice", "person.trading_loss", "person.uc_is_in_startup_period", "person.uc_is_in_gainful_self_employment", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/uc_capital_coherence.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/uc_capital_coherence.py index 8347c8c911..52727b1d7f 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/uc_capital_coherence.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/uc_capital_coherence.py @@ -76,7 +76,7 @@ _UC_CAPITAL_LEVELS = ("exact_cell", *UC_CAPITAL_COARSENING) #: The UC capital limits the receipt measures the redraw against. _UC_CAPITAL_RECEIPT_LIMITS = (6_000.0, 16_000.0) -#: policyengine-uk 2.162.3 counts these household property values as Universal +#: policyengine-uk 2.162.8 counts these household property values as Universal #: Credit capital (``property_sources`` under #: ``gov.dwp.universal_credit.means_test.capital``, at 90% of value less any #: secured debt since 2.136.1) and as Pension Credit capital (the ``sources`` diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/worker_identity.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/worker_identity.py index 078b209269..ec87cdeda2 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/worker_identity.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/us_runtime/worker_identity.py @@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ PRIMARY_QRF_WORKER_MODULE = "microcosm.build.us_runtime.puf_qrf_worker" PRIMARY_QRF_INTERPRETER_PLACEHOLDER = "{python_interpreter}" APPROVED_UV_LOCK_SHA256 = ( - "08e2ce606e03b83b4b038890afc943500eb3e75a3875a5395d29a473d2270b13" + "11f43fd15e9b69d8db244319de8df24ee390e0ad1dddbddb0ee4edae72b0204f" ) LEGACY_CAMPAIGN_UV_LOCK_SHA256 = ( "27f47e385cfa35e2644a37410d1804b361ad9aee123577551c8421547bda65ee" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_dfe_spring_term.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_dfe_spring_term.py index b51b6640a7..9165fb7194 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_dfe_spring_term.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_dfe_spring_term.py @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ -"""The DfE spring-term measures on hand-built households (policyengine-uk 2.162.3).""" +"""The DfE spring-term measures on hand-built households (policyengine-uk 2.162.8).""" from __future__ import annotations diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_tfc_routed_share.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_tfc_routed_share.py index 9829a37c7d..e3ee91347c 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_tfc_routed_share.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine/uk/test_uk_tfc_routed_share.py @@ -23,6 +23,8 @@ def _frame(): "person_benunit_id": [1], "person_household_id": [1], "age": [3], + # frs_person_draws reads it for is_apprentice (microcosm#1372). + "employment_status": ["CHILD"], "childcare_expenses": [1_000.0], "tax_free_childcare_uses_qualifying_provider": [True], "tax_free_childcare_qualifying_child": [True], @@ -64,7 +66,11 @@ def test_engine_and_manifest_define_person_input_contract() -> None: spec = load_country_spec("uk") stage = spec.sources.stage_map()["frs_person_draws"] assert "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" in stage.outputs - operation = stage.operations[-1] + (operation,) = ( + op + for op in stage.operations + if op.parameters.get("output") == "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" + ) assert operation.kind == "assign_period_constant" assert operation.parameters == { "contract_key": "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_country_spec.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_country_spec.py index 8bb891878a..caaca57113 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_country_spec.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_country_spec.py @@ -1499,6 +1499,7 @@ def test_declares_the_full_june_battery(self, manifest) -> None: "uk_stage_regional_home_values_ranking", "uk_stage_property_purchases_fit", "uk_stage_uc_legacy_closure_take_up_contract", + "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices", "uk_release_input_coverage", "uk_degenerate_release_surface", "uk_zero_weight_strata", @@ -1629,6 +1630,7 @@ def test_strict_absent_evidence_entries_are_declared(self, manifest) -> None: "uk_stage_regional_home_values_ranking", "uk_stage_property_purchases_fit", "uk_stage_uc_legacy_closure_take_up_contract", + "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices", "uk_weights_audit", # The #970 projection fence: a seam that cannot project cannot # certify the candidate's sub-exempt gainers. diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_engine_core_pins.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_engine_core_pins.py index ee0648d25f..7b8d87f322 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_engine_core_pins.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/shared/test_engine_core_pins.py @@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ #: policyengine-core its own floor brings. UK_ENGINE = { "policyengine-core": "3.33.3", - "policyengine-uk": "2.162.3", + "policyengine-uk": "2.162.8", } ENGINE_PACKAGES = ("microcosm-build", "microcosm-data", "microcosm-frame") diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py new file mode 100644 index 0000000000..018a0d6eab --- /dev/null +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_apprentice_draw.py @@ -0,0 +1,377 @@ +"""is_apprentice on the UK spine: employees aged 21 to 24, realized to a per-head rate.""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +from types import SimpleNamespace + +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd +import pytest + +from microcosm.build.stochastic_assignment import stable_identity_uniforms +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime import frs_person_draws +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_person_draws import ( + APPRENTICE_OUTPUT, + APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY, + UKFRSPersonDrawsStageTransform, + apprentice_relief_schedule, + derive_is_apprentice, +) +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.national_frame import uk_national_frame +from test_support.microcosm_build.uk_frs_stochastic import _Contract + +_STATUSES = ("FT_EMPLOYED", "PT_EMPLOYED", "FT_SELF_EMPLOYED", "STUDENT") + + +def _people(n_per_cell: int = 2000) -> pd.DataFrame: + """Every age from 18 to 30 crossed with four statuses, one household each.""" + + ages = np.arange(18, 31) + rows = [ + (age, status) for age in ages for status in _STATUSES for _ in range(n_per_cell) + ] + frame = pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=["age", "employment_status"]) + frame.insert(0, "person_id", np.arange(1, len(frame) + 1)) + frame.insert(1, "person_household_id", frame["person_id"]) + return frame + + +def _small(ages, statuses, *, households=None) -> pd.DataFrame: + ids = np.arange(11, 11 + len(ages)) + return pd.DataFrame( + { + "person_id": ids, + "person_household_id": ids if households is None else households, + "age": ages, + "employment_status": statuses, + } + ) + + +def test_only_employees_aged_21_to_24_are_flagged() -> None: + person = _people() + + flags = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.06).flags + + age = person["age"].to_numpy() + employee = person["employment_status"].isin(["FT_EMPLOYED", "PT_EMPLOYED"]) + eligible = (age >= 21) & (age <= 24) & employee.to_numpy() + assert flags.dtype == bool + assert not flags[~eligible].any() + assert flags[eligible].any() + + +def test_flagged_weight_is_nearest_the_per_head_target() -> None: + person = _people() + rng = np.random.default_rng(0) + weights = rng.uniform(100.0, 3000.0, len(person)) + rate = 0.06 + + draw = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=rate, person_weights=weights) + + age = person["age"].to_numpy() + in_ages = (age >= 21) & (age <= 24) + target = rate * weights[in_ages].sum() + realized = weights[draw.flags].sum() + # The walk stops at the cumulative weight nearest the target, so it misses + # by at most half the last person's weight. + assert abs(realized - target) <= weights.max() / 2 + receipt = draw.receipt + assert receipt["rate_key"] == APPRENTICE_RATE_KEY + assert receipt["population_mass"] == pytest.approx(weights[in_ages].sum()) + assert receipt["target"] == pytest.approx(target) + assert receipt["realized_mass"] == pytest.approx(realized) + assert receipt["realization_deviation"] == pytest.approx(realized - target) + assert receipt["cap_bound"] is False + assert receipt["eligible_support"] == "30+" + assert receipt["flagged_support"] == "30+" + + +def test_people_are_flagged_in_the_order_of_their_identity_uniform() -> None: + person = _small( + [22, 22, 23, 24, 40, 23], + [ + "FT_EMPLOYED", + "STUDENT", + "PT_EMPLOYED", + "FT_EMPLOYED", + "FT_EMPLOYED", + "FT_EMPLOYED", + ], + ) + weights = np.array([1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0]) + # Five people aged 21 to 24 at 0.4 a head: a target of two people. + draw = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.4, person_weights=weights) + + draws = stable_identity_uniforms( + person["person_id"].to_numpy(), seed=0, salt=APPRENTICE_OUTPUT + ) + eligible = np.array([True, False, True, True, False, True]) + first_two = np.argsort(np.where(eligible, draws, np.inf))[:2] + expected = np.zeros(len(person), dtype=bool) + expected[first_two] = True + np.testing.assert_array_equal(draw.flags, expected) + reordered = derive_is_apprentice( + person.iloc[::-1].reset_index(drop=True), + rate=0.4, + person_weights=weights[::-1], + ) + np.testing.assert_array_equal(reordered.flags, expected[::-1]) + + +def test_nobody_is_flagged_when_the_target_is_nearer_zero() -> None: + person = _small([22, 30], ["FT_EMPLOYED", "STUDENT"]) + + # A target of 0.1 people sits nearer zero than the one employee's weight. + draw = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.1, person_weights=np.ones(2)) + + assert not draw.flags.any() + assert draw.receipt["realized_mass"] == 0.0 + assert draw.receipt["cap_bound"] is False + + +def test_a_short_eligible_weight_flags_every_eligible_employee() -> None: + person = _small([21, 22, 23], ["FT_EMPLOYED", "UNEMPLOYED", "UNEMPLOYED"]) + + draw = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.9) + + np.testing.assert_array_equal(draw.flags, [True, False, False]) + assert draw.receipt["cap_bound"] is True + + +def test_no_eligible_employee_flags_nobody() -> None: + person = _small([22, 30], ["STUDENT", "FT_EMPLOYED"]) + + draw = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.06) + + assert not draw.flags.any() + assert draw.receipt["eligible_support"] == 0 + assert draw.receipt["cap_bound"] is True + + +def test_receipt_withholds_a_flagged_weight_on_fewer_than_ten_households() -> None: + person = _small([22] * 20, ["FT_EMPLOYED"] * 20) + + draw = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.25) + + assert int(draw.flags.sum()) == 5 + assert draw.receipt["flagged_support"] == "<10" + assert draw.receipt["realized_mass"] == "<10" + assert draw.receipt["realization_deviation"] == "<10" + assert draw.receipt["population_mass"] == 20.0 + + +def test_receipt_withholds_a_population_on_fewer_than_ten_households() -> None: + # Six people aged 21 to 24 in three households, with a one-person target. + person = _small( + [22, 23, 21, 24, 22, 23], + ["FT_EMPLOYED"] * 6, + households=[1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3], + ) + + draw = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=1 / 6) + + receipt = draw.receipt + assert receipt["population_support"] == "<10" + for key in ( + "population_mass", + "eligible_mass", + "target", + "realized_mass", + "realization_deviation", + ): + assert receipt[key] == "<10", key + + +def test_refuses_a_frame_without_employment_status() -> None: + person = pd.DataFrame({"person_id": [1], "person_household_id": [1], "age": [22]}) + + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="employment_status"): + derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.06) + + +def test_refuses_a_rate_outside_the_unit_interval() -> None: + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match=r"\[0, 1\]"): + derive_is_apprentice(_people(1), rate=1.5) + + +def _two_household_frame(**extra_person_columns): + person = pd.DataFrame( + { + "person_id": np.arange(1, 4001), + "person_benunit_id": np.arange(1, 4001), + "person_household_id": np.repeat([1, 2], 2000), + "age": np.tile([22, 23], 2000), + "employment_status": np.repeat(["FT_EMPLOYED", "STUDENT"], 2000), + **extra_person_columns, + } + ) + return uk_national_frame( + person=person, + benunit=pd.DataFrame({"benunit_id": np.arange(1, 4001), "is_married": False}), + household=pd.DataFrame( + { + "household_id": [1, 2], + "region": ["LONDON", "WALES"], + "household_weight": [1.0, 3.0], + } + ), + time_period="2024", + ) + + +@pytest.fixture +def no_engine(monkeypatch): + """Run the stage as the engine-free job does, whatever is installed.""" + + monkeypatch.setattr(frs_person_draws, "_installed_uk_system", lambda: None) + + +def test_stage_realizes_the_target_at_the_frame_household_weights(no_engine) -> None: + stage = UKFRSPersonDrawsStageTransform(contract=_Contract(), stage=None) + + stored = stage(_two_household_frame()).table("person") + + # Household 1 holds the employees and weighs 1, household 2 the students + # and weighs 3: the target is 0.06 x (2000 + 6000) = 480 employees. + flags = stored[APPRENTICE_OUTPUT].to_numpy() + assert not flags[2000:].any() + assert int(flags[:2000].sum()) == 480 + receipt = stage.checkpoint_metadata()["evidence"] + assert receipt["stage"] == "frs_person_draws" + apprentices = receipt["apprentice_receipt"] + assert apprentices["build_year"] == 2024 + assert apprentices["rate"] == 0.06 + # Two households carry everyone, so the receipt withholds the weights. + assert apprentices["population_support"] == "<10" + assert apprentices["target"] == "<10" + assert apprentices["flagged_support"] == "<10" + + +def test_stage_has_no_receipt_before_it_runs() -> None: + stage = UKFRSPersonDrawsStageTransform(contract=_Contract(), stage=None) + + with pytest.raises(RuntimeError, match="completed stage run"): + stage.checkpoint_metadata() + + +def test_stage_refuses_a_stored_flag(no_engine) -> None: + frame = _two_household_frame(is_apprentice=False) + + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="already stored"): + UKFRSPersonDrawsStageTransform(contract=_Contract(), stage=None)(frame) + + +_SCHEDULE = { + "period": 2024, + "rate": 0.138, + "secondary_threshold": 9_100.0, + "apprentice_upper_secondary_threshold": 50_270.0, +} + + +def test_receipt_records_the_relief_the_flags_imply() -> None: + pay = np.array([5_000.0, 20_000.0, 60_000.0] * 4) + person = _small([22] * 12, ["FT_EMPLOYED"] * 12).assign(employment_income=pay) + + # Every employee is flagged: a rate of one a head is cap-bound. + draw = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=1.0, relief_schedule=_SCHEDULE) + + assert draw.flags.all() + relieved = np.clip(np.minimum(pay, 50_270.0) - 9_100.0, 0.0, None) + assert draw.receipt["implied_relief"] == pytest.approx(0.138 * relieved.sum()) + assert draw.receipt["relief_schedule"] == _SCHEDULE + + +def test_receipt_withholds_a_relief_on_fewer_than_ten_households() -> None: + person = _small([22] * 5, ["FT_EMPLOYED"] * 5).assign(employment_income=20_000.0) + + draw = derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=1.0, relief_schedule=_SCHEDULE) + + assert draw.receipt["implied_relief"] == "<10" + + +def test_receipt_records_no_relief_without_a_schedule() -> None: + person = _small([22] * 12, ["FT_EMPLOYED"] * 12).assign(employment_income=1.0) + + assert "implied_relief" not in derive_is_apprentice(person, rate=0.5).receipt + + +def test_the_graph_node_reads_every_person_column_the_draw_needs() -> None: + """A node receives its declared cells alone, so the declaration must name + the pay the relief reads: the licensed spine at ab7c777e2 recorded no + implied relief, and the gate blocked it, before the declaration followed + (microcosm#1373).""" + from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.graph import uk_spine_graph + + node = uk_spine_graph(source_mode="split").node("frs_person_draws") + inputs = { + (slice_.entity, column) for slice_ in node.inputs for column in slice_.columns + } + assert { + ("person", "age"), + ("person", "employment_status"), + ("person", "employment_income"), + } <= inputs + + +def _system(*, variables, apprentice_threshold=966.73): + thresholds = SimpleNamespace() + if apprentice_threshold is not None: + thresholds.apprentice_upper_secondary_threshold = apprentice_threshold + class_1 = SimpleNamespace( + employer_scale=SimpleNamespace( + components=[None, SimpleNamespace(rate=0.138, threshold=175.0)] + ), + thresholds=thresholds, + ) + instants = [] + + def parameters(instant): + instants.append(instant) + return SimpleNamespace( + gov=SimpleNamespace( + hmrc=SimpleNamespace( + national_insurance=SimpleNamespace(class_1=class_1) + ) + ) + ) + + return SimpleNamespace( + variables=dict.fromkeys(variables), parameters=parameters + ), instants + + +_SPLIT = ("qualifies_for_apprentice_minimum_wage", "is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship") + + +def test_schedule_reads_the_engine_at_the_start_of_the_stage_year() -> None: + system, instants = _system(variables=_SPLIT) + + schedule = apprentice_relief_schedule(system, "2024") + + assert instants == ["2024-01-01"] + assert schedule == { + "period": 2024, + "rate": 0.138, + "secondary_threshold": 175.0 * 52, + "apprentice_upper_secondary_threshold": 966.73 * 52, + } + + +def test_schedule_is_absent_without_an_engine() -> None: + assert apprentice_relief_schedule(None, "2024") is None + + +def test_schedule_refuses_an_engine_without_the_minimum_wage_split() -> None: + system, _ = _system(variables=()) + + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="2683"): + apprentice_relief_schedule(system, "2024") + + +def test_schedule_refuses_an_engine_without_the_apprentice_threshold() -> None: + system, _ = _system(variables=_SPLIT, apprentice_threshold=None) + + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="apprentice_upper_secondary_threshold"): + apprentice_relief_schedule(system, "2024") diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_stochastic.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_stochastic.py index a047fb9d69..1eef6fd723 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_stochastic.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_frs_stochastic.py @@ -79,7 +79,9 @@ def test_under_two_usage_draws_children_in_claiming_units_only() -> None: def test_person_draws_pin_scp_age_six_boundary_and_uniform_draw() -> None: person = _frame().table("person") - derived = derive_frs_person_draws(person, contract=_Contract()) + derived = derive_frs_person_draws( + person, contract=_Contract(), person_weights=np.ones(len(person)) + ) draws = stable_identity_uniforms( person["person_id"].to_numpy(), seed=0, salt="would_claim_scp" @@ -219,7 +221,7 @@ def test_uc_take_up_population_excludes_units_without_a_working_age_adult() -> N def test_uc_take_up_population_needs_a_claimant_or_partner_of_working_age() -> None: """A working-age dependant does not bring a unit into the UC population. - policyengine-uk 2.162.3's is_uc_eligible reads the age of the unit's UC + policyengine-uk 2.162.8's is_uc_eligible reads the age of the unit's UC claimant or partner (is_uc_claimant), not of any adult: a pensioner unit with an 18-year-old dependant cannot claim Universal Credit. """ diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_source_stages.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_source_stages.py index e6e8d5e63c..46ec7753eb 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_source_stages.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_source_stages.py @@ -620,6 +620,7 @@ def test_e3_operation_kinds_are_declared_in_order(self) -> None: "assign_binary_from_banded_rates", "assign_uniform_draw", "assign_period_constant", + "assign_binary_from_rate", ] assert [op.kind for op in stages["frs_household_draws"].operations] == [ "assign_binary_from_rate", @@ -959,6 +960,7 @@ def test_engine_predictor_and_rewrite_constants_match_manifest(self) -> None: "extended_childcare_age_0_usage", "extended_childcare_age_1_usage", "marriage_allowance", + "apprentice_stock_19_to_24", "tv_ownership_rate", "tv_licence_evasion_rate", "first_time_buyer_rate", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py index bce86d584b..f0ad97eeaf 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stage_health.py @@ -3204,3 +3204,144 @@ def failing(change, fragment: str) -> None: parameters["amount_scale_bounds"] = bounds with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="amount_scale_bounds"): run(receipt) + + +def _apprentice_receipt(**overrides): + """An is_apprentice receipt at the contract's 2024 rate (microcosm#1373).""" + + from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.take_up_contract import load_uk_take_up_contract + + rate = load_uk_take_up_contract().rate("apprentice_stock_19_to_24", 2024) + receipt = { + "build_year": 2024, + "output": "is_apprentice", + "rate_key": "apprentice_stock_19_to_24", + "rate": rate, + "ages": [21, 24], + "eligible_statuses": ["FT_EMPLOYED", "PT_EMPLOYED"], + "population_mass": 1_000_000.0, + "eligible_mass": 600_000.0, + "target": rate * 1_000_000.0, + "cap_bound": False, + "population_support": "30+", + "eligible_support": "30+", + "flagged_support": "30+", + "realized_mass": rate * 1_000_000.0 + 500.0, + "realization_deviation": 500.0, + "implied_relief": 200_000_000.0, + } + receipt.update(overrides) + return {"stage": "frs_person_draws", "apprentice_receipt": receipt} + + +def test_apprentice_gate_holds_the_draw_to_the_contract_rate() -> None: + gate_id = "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices" + assert _passed(_gate(gate_id, _apprentice_receipt())) + rate = _apprentice_receipt()["apprentice_receipt"]["rate"] + far = rate * 1_000_000.0 * 1.06 + for receipt, fragment in ( + ( + _apprentice_receipt(rate_key="apprenticeship_participation_19_to_24"), + "reads", + ), + (_apprentice_receipt(rate=0.05992), "not the contract's"), + (_apprentice_receipt(target=1.0), "not the rate times"), + (_apprentice_receipt(flagged_support="12"), "printed band"), + ( + _apprentice_receipt( + realized_mass=far, realization_deviation=far - rate * 1_000_000.0 + ), + "away from it", + ), + (_apprentice_receipt(realization_deviation=0.0), "realized minus target"), + (_apprentice_receipt(cap_bound=True), "cap_bound is True"), + (_apprentice_receipt(implied_relief=400_000_000.0), "above the"), + (_apprentice_receipt(implied_relief=None), "no implied relief"), + ): + result = _gate(gate_id, receipt) + assert not result.passed + assert any(fragment in failure for failure in result.failures), result.failures + + +def test_apprentice_gate_flags_its_small_cells_without_failing() -> None: + """A "<10" figure is named unchecked, never failed (María's ruling, 10-26).""" + + gate_id = "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices" + thin_flags = _gate( + gate_id, + _apprentice_receipt( + flagged_support="<10", + realized_mass="<10", + realization_deviation="<10", + implied_relief="<10", + ), + ) + assert _passed(thin_flags) + assert thin_flags.details["figures_unchecked_small_cells"] == [ + "realized_mass", + "realization_deviation", + "implied_relief", + ] + thin_population = _gate( + gate_id, + _apprentice_receipt( + population_support="<10", + population_mass="<10", + target="<10", + realization_deviation="<10", + ), + ) + assert _passed(thin_population) + assert thin_population.details["figures_unchecked_small_cells"] == [ + "population_mass", + "target", + "realization_deviation", + ] + assert ( + _gate(gate_id, _apprentice_receipt()).details["figures_unchecked_small_cells"] + == [] + ) + # What the receipt still prints is checked beside a withheld figure. + off_rate = _gate( + gate_id, + _apprentice_receipt(eligible_support="<10", eligible_mass="<10", rate=0.05992), + ) + assert not off_rate.passed + assert any("not the contract's" in failure for failure in off_rate.failures) + + +def test_apprentice_gate_accepts_a_cap_bound_draw_that_flags_every_employee() -> None: + gate_id = "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices" + rate = _apprentice_receipt()["apprentice_receipt"]["rate"] + short = _apprentice_receipt( + eligible_mass=20_000.0, + cap_bound=True, + realized_mass=20_000.0, + realization_deviation=20_000.0 - rate * 1_000_000.0, + ) + assert _passed(_gate(gate_id, short)) + + partial = _apprentice_receipt( + eligible_mass=20_000.0, + cap_bound=True, + realized_mass=10_000.0, + realization_deviation=10_000.0 - rate * 1_000_000.0, + ) + result = _gate(gate_id, partial) + assert not result.passed + assert "every eligible employee" in result.failures[0] + + +def test_apprentice_gate_is_a_population_fact_check() -> None: + """A synthetic fixture is not the population DfE's rate describes (#1373).""" + + gates = { + entry["id"]: entry + for entry in json.loads( + (_TEST_PATHS.package / "src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json").read_text() + )["gates"] + } + entry = gates["uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices"] + assert entry["population_fact_check"] is True + assert entry["criticality"] == "release_blocking" + assert entry["evidence_absent_blocks"] is True diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stochastic_tools.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stochastic_tools.py index 26e524d8bb..10b6cd7346 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stochastic_tools.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_stochastic_tools.py @@ -302,6 +302,7 @@ def continuous_entry(self, key: str): "person_benunit_id": [10, 10, 20, 30], "person_household_id": [1, 1, 1, 2], "age": [5, 6, 40, 70], + "employment_status": ["CHILD", "CHILD", "FT_EMPLOYED", "RETIRED"], "months_since_last_birthday": [0.0] * 4, "is_uc_claimant": [False, False, True, True], "child_benefit_reported": [0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0], diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py index d566f2d3c0..a9f2529f4f 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/engine_free/uk/test_uk_take_up_contract.py @@ -66,6 +66,9 @@ def test_uk_contract_loads_and_selects_build_year_rates() -> None: 0.384, 0.0385, 0.593, + # microcosm#1373: DfE apprentices in learning at the start of 2024/25 + # (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24 in England. + 0.036887, ] diff --git a/packages/microcosm-data/pyproject.toml b/packages/microcosm-data/pyproject.toml index 456670774f..c0c69eccba 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-data/pyproject.toml +++ b/packages/microcosm-data/pyproject.toml @@ -37,7 +37,7 @@ us = ["policyengine-us>=2.2.1,<3", "policyengine-core==3.32.5"] # The UK artifact lives in a PRIVATE repo (UK Data Service licence): loads # require an authenticated HF token with access. The loader surfaces the # 401 with that explanation rather than retrying. -uk = ["policyengine-uk>=2.162.3"] +uk = ["policyengine-uk>=2.162.8"] [project.urls] Homepage = "https://microcosm.institute" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py b/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py index 52b98456ef..7ebb65a13d 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py @@ -451,13 +451,13 @@ def compatibility_claim_declarer_error(declared_by: object) -> str | None: # fingerprint derives from the manifest digest. Editing the spec moves all # three here in the same reviewed change. _UK_GATE_BATTERY_POLICY_SHA256 = ( - "ce740f872559d9956314330765af414f7d8e767c1e666408fe9a7d209c41d04b" + "5f8a65be07c1df68e6beeab1a795a660940a626f6fe12b8cd282b236a9d41d03" ) _UK_GATE_BATTERY_GATES_MANIFEST_SHA256 = ( - "5be43f9fa28f0fa17c40b8d2035727b96e62d4e50bc674d266b425e67abb455d" + "46e58e85a771c10101ea79905a62077fd9d68c408dc3ecf5c706b6af16f0cb4a" ) _UK_GATE_BATTERY_SPEC_FINGERPRINT = ( - "0fdeef15e7590d85b30dc301481f24d4a093b2b139eb06c79b5303ae74b4b53a" + "fdb46cc0f42398589c0fbdfdccdb288a1edd6c0b941c26ff2e282128a4037a60" ) #: Spec entry id -> the legacy gate name whose observable detail checks #: apply unchanged (the battery re-keys the report by entry id; the gate @@ -557,6 +557,7 @@ def compatibility_claim_declarer_error(declared_by: object) -> str | None: "uk_stage_regional_home_values_ranking": ("stage_health", "transferred"), "uk_stage_property_purchases_fit": ("stage_health", "transferred"), "uk_stage_uc_legacy_closure_take_up_contract": ("stage_health", "transferred"), + "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices": ("stage_health", "transferred"), "uk_stage_age_tail_targets": ("stage_health", "assembled"), "uk_stage_frs_relationships_composition": ("stage_health", "assembled"), "uk_ledger_compile_parity_local_incumbent_2025": ( @@ -662,6 +663,7 @@ def compatibility_claim_declarer_error(declared_by: object) -> str | None: "uk_stage_regional_home_values_ranking", "uk_stage_property_purchases_fit", "uk_stage_uc_legacy_closure_take_up_contract", + "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices", "uk_stage_age_tail_targets", "uk_stage_frs_relationships_composition", "uk_cgt_projection_entrants", @@ -882,6 +884,7 @@ def _uk_line_cut_tag_re(release_id: str) -> re.Pattern[str] | None: "uk_stage_etb_vat_support", "uk_stage_frs_hmrc_spine_leaves_signal", "uk_stage_frs_annual_income_spells", + "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices", "uk_stage_frs_relationships_composition", "uk_stage_high_value_home_support_mass", "uk_stage_hmrc_cgt_asset_type_spine_summary", @@ -952,10 +955,10 @@ def _uk_line_cut_tag_re(release_id: str) -> re.Pattern[str] | None: _UK_CERTIFICATION_PART_DIGESTS: Mapping[str, Mapping[str, str]] = { "spine": { "gates_manifest_sha256": ( - "406c299c2623d1d4302ff3c0110963b2eb07c048827894171cc33d4b422e62fe" + "a66ce7e3a1bca21e45f8a3d5b40fa236d2f0990bfafe6a41a2f1c9d1e942c432" ), "policy_sha256": ( - "d1348b7e37d23ad5533b77dc54b223cb6d6210b753e54e394daf961ca582123c" + "eaf400f0603a56188289bb0e62915096f22af2740192dc627ab1d635647861e8" ), }, "calibration_seam": { @@ -968,10 +971,10 @@ def _uk_line_cut_tag_re(release_id: str) -> re.Pattern[str] | None: }, "release_cut": { "gates_manifest_sha256": ( - "d64809b38019b29bc7bb07b3119dc5b29d4b3f1c95cdb1726657d0612eae47c6" + "d9996429aa272a6abfcc6c88d8eeea6bba99d23883e78dc4ce16c4432c8cb753" ), "policy_sha256": ( - "6c56029fafbd8eeb36693bdcb3a719675bbb9286a377953aa6050bb03cbe5d3e" + "53d5d9a14a6d118f9fbfd960a06d6e67e54f88c35718e131ce382394abe3209d" ), }, } diff --git a/packages/microcosm-data/tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py b/packages/microcosm-data/tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py index 410586399a..ecef9eb0c6 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-data/tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-data/tests/engine_free/shared/test_contract.py @@ -213,13 +213,13 @@ def _trusted_terminal_gate_signing_key(monkeypatch) -> None: UK_GATE_BATTERY_PRODUCER = "microcosm.build.gate_battery" UK_GATE_BATTERY_SIGNING_KEY_ENV = "MICROCOSM_UK_TERMINAL_GATE_SIGNING_KEY" UK_GATE_BATTERY_POLICY_SHA256 = ( - "ce740f872559d9956314330765af414f7d8e767c1e666408fe9a7d209c41d04b" + "5f8a65be07c1df68e6beeab1a795a660940a626f6fe12b8cd282b236a9d41d03" ) UK_GATE_BATTERY_GATES_MANIFEST_SHA256 = ( - "5be43f9fa28f0fa17c40b8d2035727b96e62d4e50bc674d266b425e67abb455d" + "46e58e85a771c10101ea79905a62077fd9d68c408dc3ecf5c706b6af16f0cb4a" ) UK_GATE_BATTERY_SPEC_FINGERPRINT = ( - "0fdeef15e7590d85b30dc301481f24d4a093b2b139eb06c79b5303ae74b4b53a" + "fdb46cc0f42398589c0fbdfdccdb288a1edd6c0b941c26ff2e282128a4037a60" ) UK_GATE_BATTERY_DEGENERATE_EVIDENCE_SHA256 = ( "6a179222c6b6058ad9caacfd347f7bdb8cb98a62237b50d1fc1136df09337251" @@ -354,6 +354,11 @@ def _trusted_terminal_gate_signing_key(monkeypatch) -> None: "transferred", None, ), + "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices": ( + "stage_health", + "transferred", + None, + ), "uk_stage_hmrc_cgt_asset_type_spine_summary": ( "stage_health", "transferred", @@ -1425,6 +1430,7 @@ def _gate_battery_payload( "uk_stage_regional_home_values_ranking": "regional_home_values", "uk_stage_property_purchases_fit": "property_purchases", "uk_stage_uc_legacy_closure_take_up_contract": "uc_legacy_closure_take_up", + "uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices": "frs_person_draws", "uk_stage_age_tail_targets": "age_tail", "uk_stage_frs_relationships_composition": "frs_relationships", } diff --git a/packages/microcosm-frame/pyproject.toml b/packages/microcosm-frame/pyproject.toml index 409425066d..7cc953c3bc 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-frame/pyproject.toml +++ b/packages/microcosm-frame/pyproject.toml @@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ policyengine = [ "policyengine-core==3.32.5", "microunit>=0.1.0", ] -uk = ["policyengine-uk>=2.162.3"] +uk = ["policyengine-uk>=2.162.8"] # The Axiom adapter's PyPI-resolvable dependencies. The engine itself # (axiom-rules-engine + its dense native extension) is not on PyPI yet and # installs from a checkout; see microcosm/frame/adapters/axiom.py. diff --git a/packages/microcosm-frame/src/microcosm/frame/adapters/policyengine_uk_concepts.py b/packages/microcosm-frame/src/microcosm/frame/adapters/policyengine_uk_concepts.py index 843f1c625e..5a920f67f9 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-frame/src/microcosm/frame/adapters/policyengine_uk_concepts.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-frame/src/microcosm/frame/adapters/policyengine_uk_concepts.py @@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ # --------------------------------------------------------------------------- # # Which PolicyEngine-UK inputs each engine-neutral concept feeds -# (microcosm.frame.concepts), reviewed against policyengine-uk 2.162.3. Every +# (microcosm.frame.concepts), reviewed against policyengine-uk 2.162.8. Every # target is a pure input (in ``PolicyEngineUKEngine.variables``). The UK # loader also accepts some formula-owned variables as overrides # (``employment_income``, ``state_pension_reported``, ``is_household_head``); @@ -399,6 +399,18 @@ "Lifetime ISA withdrawals they change nothing, so they stay false " "(microcosm#1095; for María's signature).", ), + "is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship": ( + "Whether an apprentice is in the first 12 months of the apprenticeship " + "(policyengine-uk 2.162.8, policyengine-uk#2683): the apprentice " + "minimum wage applies under 19 or in that first year. The build flags " + "apprentices aged 21 to 24 only (frs_person_draws) and records no " + "apprenticeship start, so the input stays false and every flagged " + "apprentice takes the age-related minimum wage. A first-year apprentice " + "aged 21 to 24 is then held to the higher minimum income in the " + "Tax-Free Childcare, extended childcare and Childcare Offer for Wales " + "income tests, so those tests are slightly harder for them to pass; " + "employer NICs do not read it (microcosm#1373; for María's signature)." + ), } @@ -423,7 +435,7 @@ def _uk_take_up(program: str, entity: str) -> InputBinding: POLICYENGINE_UK_CONCEPT_MAPPING = ConceptMapping( engine="policyengine-uk", - engine_version="2.162.3", + engine_version="2.162.8", entity_correspondence={"person": "person", "household": "household"}, input_declaration=InputDeclaration.ENGINE_TYPED, bindings=( diff --git a/packages/microcosm-frame/tests/golden/concept-coverage/policyengine-uk.json b/packages/microcosm-frame/tests/golden/concept-coverage/policyengine-uk.json index bc72b0314a..b6576e5fe1 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-frame/tests/golden/concept-coverage/policyengine-uk.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-frame/tests/golden/concept-coverage/policyengine-uk.json @@ -405,8 +405,8 @@ } ], "engine": "policyengine-uk", - "engine_version": "2.162.3", - "input_count": 356, + "engine_version": "2.162.8", + "input_count": 357, "schema_sha256": "5a55669d0447a686692911a6327ae298f19741dde29559f2654a75807878a141", "structural_inputs": [ { @@ -1003,6 +1003,10 @@ "entity": "person", "name": "is_in_approved_training" }, + { + "entity": "person", + "name": "is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship" + }, { "entity": "person", "name": "is_looked_after_by_local_authority" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json index 7540cb64e7..bb51613849 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json @@ -288,7 +288,7 @@ "cgt_residential_split": { "artifacts": [ { - "dependency": "policyengine-uk>=2.162.3 via microcosm-build[uk]", + "dependency": "policyengine-uk>=2.162.8 via microcosm-build[uk]", "dependency_discipline": "deferred inside uk_cgt_policy_parameters; the base package never imports policyengine-uk at import time", "instant_rule": "raw dated parameter files evaluated at 1 June of the build period's tax year", "kind": "versioned_parameter_tree", @@ -1813,7 +1813,7 @@ "attends_private_school_random_draw", "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" ], - "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced.", + "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; higher_earner_tie_break is intentionally not produced. is_apprentice has no FRS source (no apprenticeship variable in the 2022-23 to 2024-25 adult tables; TRAIN2, NI3TRAIN and TRAINEE code government employment schemes) and is drawn to DfE's point-in-time rate for employees aged 21 to 24 only.", "operations": [ { "draw": "would_claim_marriage_allowance", @@ -1849,13 +1849,24 @@ "kind": "assign_period_constant", "output": "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", "period_source": "build_year" + }, + { + "assignment_unit": "person", + "draw": "is_apprentice", + "eligibility": "employees (employment_status FT_EMPLOYED or PT_EMPLOYED, from frs_employment) aged 21 to 24: SSCBA 1992 s.9A already zero-rates every earner under 21 and s.9B ends the apprentice zero rate at 25, so no other age changes employer NICs, and leaving them False keeps is_in_non_advanced_education, minimum_wage, Care to Learn and the 16 to 19 Bursary Fund unchanged; the flagged keep their age-related minimum_wage too, because policyengine-uk 2.162.8 (policyengine-uk#2683) gives the apprentice rate only under 19 or with is_in_first_year_of_apprenticeship, which the build leaves at its default (False), and the stage refuses an engine without that split or the s.9B threshold", + "kind": "assign_binary_from_rate", + "output": "is_apprentice", + "rate_derivation": "the contract's apprentice_stock_19_to_24 is DfE's England apprentices in learning at the start of the academic year (participation less starts) per head aged 19 to 24, a point-in-time count taken as uniform across those ages and UK-wide; the target is r times the weighted population aged 21 to 24 at the frame's household weights, and eligible employees are flagged in the order of their identity-keyed uniform until their weight is nearest it (uc_take_up's rule), or all of them when they weigh no more than it; the receipt records the target, the flagged weight, the support bands and the relief the flags imply at the installed engine's Class 1 schedule, and uk_stage_frs_person_draws_apprentices gates them, the relief at or below HMRC's NIC - NS1", + "rate_key": "apprentice_stock_19_to_24", + "seed": 0 } ], "outputs": [ "would_claim_marriage_allowance", "would_claim_scp", "attends_private_school_random_draw", - "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share" + "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share", + "is_apprentice" ], "rewrites": [], "source": "Sourced UK take-up contract rates and identity-keyed deterministic draws.", @@ -2447,7 +2458,7 @@ "maximum_extended_childcare_hours_usage", "max_free_entitlement_hours_used" ], - "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; salts are output variable names. Reported positive receipt anchors are transient and consumed only. The Universal Credit draw's population is the benefit units with a UC claimant or partner (is_uc_claimant) aged 18 or over and under Pension Credit qualifying age (66 for everyone who can reach it in this release), the age and role conditions of policyengine-uk 2.162.3's is_uc_eligible; the engine lockstep test pins it and names the three engine cases not mirrored (16- and 17-year-old claimants under the UC Regs 2013 reg 8 exceptions, mixed-age couples on the Pension Credit route, and from 2.128.0 pension-age families moved onto Universal Credit when their legacy benefit closes, SI 2014/1230 reg 60A). So the contract rate is a share of those units, an anchor outside them stays true, and any other unit is never drawn; a unit with no claimant or partner of that age keeps its reported Housing Benefit, which a claim it cannot make no longer zeroes (#882, microcosm#867, microcosm#1095). The universal childcare flag is nested under the working-parent one. A unit that claims the extended hours claims the universal hours, and any other unit claims them at the contract's universal_childcare rate, the rate conditional on not claiming the extended hours; the extended draw is unchanged. childcare_copy_take_up later re-draws the childcare flags and hours of the support and CGT copies on their own benefit units. A child of DfE age 0 or 1 (its age on 31 December of the fit's model year, the age DfE counts by) in a unit that claims the working-parent hours uses them at its age's contract rate, extended_childcare_age_0_usage or extended_childcare_age_1_usage (DfE registers far fewer of the youngest eligible children than of those aged 2 to 4, and fewer at 9 to 11 months than at age 1); a child that does not gets max_free_entitlement_hours_used 0, so the engine funds it no hours, and every other person keeps the engine's default of 30.", + "notes": "Identity-keyed seed 0 streams replace the incumbent sequential take-up seed 100; salts are output variable names. Reported positive receipt anchors are transient and consumed only. The Universal Credit draw's population is the benefit units with a UC claimant or partner (is_uc_claimant) aged 18 or over and under Pension Credit qualifying age (66 for everyone who can reach it in this release), the age and role conditions of policyengine-uk 2.162.8's is_uc_eligible; the engine lockstep test pins it and names the three engine cases not mirrored (16- and 17-year-old claimants under the UC Regs 2013 reg 8 exceptions, mixed-age couples on the Pension Credit route, and from 2.128.0 pension-age families moved onto Universal Credit when their legacy benefit closes, SI 2014/1230 reg 60A). So the contract rate is a share of those units, an anchor outside them stays true, and any other unit is never drawn; a unit with no claimant or partner of that age keeps its reported Housing Benefit, which a claim it cannot make no longer zeroes (#882, microcosm#867, microcosm#1095). The universal childcare flag is nested under the working-parent one. A unit that claims the extended hours claims the universal hours, and any other unit claims them at the contract's universal_childcare rate, the rate conditional on not claiming the extended hours; the extended draw is unchanged. childcare_copy_take_up later re-draws the childcare flags and hours of the support and CGT copies on their own benefit units. A child of DfE age 0 or 1 (its age on 31 December of the fit's model year, the age DfE counts by) in a unit that claims the working-parent hours uses them at its age's contract rate, extended_childcare_age_0_usage or extended_childcare_age_1_usage (DfE registers far fewer of the youngest eligible children than of those aged 2 to 4, and fewer at 9 to 11 months than at age 1); a child that does not gets max_free_entitlement_hours_used 0, so the engine funds it no hours, and every other person keeps the engine's default of 30.", "operations": [ { "aggregates": { @@ -2628,7 +2639,7 @@ "hmrc_cgt_asset_type_spine": { "artifacts": [ { - "dependency": "policyengine-uk>=2.162.3 via microcosm-build[uk]", + "dependency": "policyengine-uk>=2.162.8 via microcosm-build[uk]", "dependency_discipline": "deferred inside uk_cgt_policy_parameters and uk_cgt_badr_parameters; the base package never imports policyengine-uk at import time", "instant_rule": "raw dated parameter files evaluated at 1 June of the build period's tax year", "kind": "versioned_parameter_tree", @@ -6593,7 +6604,7 @@ "artifacts": [], "grain": "benunit", "nonnegative_outputs": [], - "notes": "Runs after the last universal_credit_reported writer and before CGT cloning. Redraws every SPI benefit unit's capital, since the channel's incomes are SPI draws and the copied FRS answer no longer belongs to the unit (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), from weighted base-FRS units with available capital in cells of UC reporter status by financial investment income band (interest, dividends and other investment income; property income is excluded because TOTCAPB4 counts accounts and assets) by is_uc_couple (two retained FRS claimant/partner roles, independently of legal is_married) by dependent-children band. A cell with fewer than 20 donors widens in the declared coarsening order, and reporter status is never coarsened. It then applies the monotone reported-UC OR refresh. The recorded capitals add property (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), since policyengine-uk 2.162.3 replaces every capital source with a recorded figure of 0 or more and takes it as countable, and TOTCAPB4 has no property. WAS records the property for the household, and each means test counts the claimant's and partner's own capital (UC Regs 2013 reg 18; SPCA 2002 s.5). The household reference person's benefit unit therefore holds all of the household's property, and no other unit records any (Mar\u00eda's ruling of 2026-10-12), since that person is the one in whose name the home is owned or rented, the best single reading of the owner. The engine shares household property over every claimant or partner instead, which puts a parent's property on an adult child's claim; a recorded figure consumes its own unit's share, so the engine's shares reach only a unit on the unavailable sentinel, and since policyengine-uk 2.136.1 such a unit takes its share whatever a recording unit beside it holds (the receipt counts any unit left there). The property counts at 90% of its value, market value less 10% for the costs of sale, less the debt secured on it, class by class and floored at zero per class (UC Regs 2013 reg 49(1); SPC Regs 2002 reg 19), as policyengine-uk values Universal Credit property capital. The was_wealth stage draws the debt on other residential and on non-residential property (microcosm#1095), and owned land carries none, as the engine has no input for it (pe-uk#1969). Universal Credit counts other residential and non-residential property, and Pension Credit counts those and owned land. A unit that reports Universal Credit keeps its receipt and records the carrier alone for Universal Credit, since DWP assessed its capital to pay it and the property is imputed without that receipt. frs_benunit_capital stays the financial carrier, and its unavailable sentinel -1 passes through to both. Both recorded figures project to later years by GDP per head, as financial capital does, while policyengine-uk 2.139.1 projects other residential property by house prices, so the other residential property in a recorded figure grows faster than the engine's own projection of it; by the OBR indices the engine carries, it grows 1.5% faster by 2025 and 2.0% by 2026 from a 2024 base.", + "notes": "Runs after the last universal_credit_reported writer and before CGT cloning. Redraws every SPI benefit unit's capital, since the channel's incomes are SPI draws and the copied FRS answer no longer belongs to the unit (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), from weighted base-FRS units with available capital in cells of UC reporter status by financial investment income band (interest, dividends and other investment income; property income is excluded because TOTCAPB4 counts accounts and assets) by is_uc_couple (two retained FRS claimant/partner roles, independently of legal is_married) by dependent-children band. A cell with fewer than 20 donors widens in the declared coarsening order, and reporter status is never coarsened. It then applies the monotone reported-UC OR refresh. The recorded capitals add property (uk-data#495, microcosm#1095), since policyengine-uk 2.162.8 replaces every capital source with a recorded figure of 0 or more and takes it as countable, and TOTCAPB4 has no property. WAS records the property for the household, and each means test counts the claimant's and partner's own capital (UC Regs 2013 reg 18; SPCA 2002 s.5). The household reference person's benefit unit therefore holds all of the household's property, and no other unit records any (Mar\u00eda's ruling of 2026-10-12), since that person is the one in whose name the home is owned or rented, the best single reading of the owner. The engine shares household property over every claimant or partner instead, which puts a parent's property on an adult child's claim; a recorded figure consumes its own unit's share, so the engine's shares reach only a unit on the unavailable sentinel, and since policyengine-uk 2.136.1 such a unit takes its share whatever a recording unit beside it holds (the receipt counts any unit left there). The property counts at 90% of its value, market value less 10% for the costs of sale, less the debt secured on it, class by class and floored at zero per class (UC Regs 2013 reg 49(1); SPC Regs 2002 reg 19), as policyengine-uk values Universal Credit property capital. The was_wealth stage draws the debt on other residential and on non-residential property (microcosm#1095), and owned land carries none, as the engine has no input for it (pe-uk#1969). Universal Credit counts other residential and non-residential property, and Pension Credit counts those and owned land. A unit that reports Universal Credit keeps its receipt and records the carrier alone for Universal Credit, since DWP assessed its capital to pay it and the property is imputed without that receipt. frs_benunit_capital stays the financial carrier, and its unavailable sentinel -1 passes through to both. Both recorded figures project to later years by GDP per head, as financial capital does, while policyengine-uk 2.139.1 projects other residential property by house prices, so the other residential property in a recorded figure grows faster than the engine's own projection of it; by the OBR indices the engine carries, it grows 1.5% faster by 2025 and 2.0% by 2026 from a 2024 base.", "operations": [ { "aggregates": { diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json index 6a0581f884..d0b69fdcb4 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json @@ -1 +1 @@ -{"country":"uk","nodes":[{"artifact_outputs":[{"name":"stage_evidence","type":{"name":"microcosm.stage-evidence","schema_version":1}}],"base":null,"citation":"","description":"Load the source-bound UK FRS root 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access_fund","education_grants","healthy_start_vouchers","free_school_breakfasts","free_school_fruit_veg","free_school_meals","council_tax_benefit_reported","maintenance_expenses","childcare_expenses","personal_pension_contributions","employee_pension_contributions","pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice","salary_sacrifice_reported","salary_sacrifice_asked","frs_bonus_amount","child_benefit_reported","income_support_reported","housing_benefit_reported","attendance_allowance_reported","dla_sc_reported","dla_m_reported","iidb_reported","carers_allowance_reported","would_claim_carers_allowance","sda_reported","afcs_reported","ssmg_reported","pension_credit_reported","child_tax_credit_reported","working_tax_credit_reported","state_pension_reported","winter_fuel_allowance_reported","incapacity_benefit_reported","universal_credit_reported","pip_m_reported","pip_dl_reported","jsa_contrib_reported","jsa_income_reported","esa_contrib_reported","esa_income_reported","esa_includes_support_component","bsp_reported","war_widows_pension_reported","widowed_parents_allowance_reported","relationship_to_head","ons_family_role","ons_family_index","is_looked_after_by_local_authority","employment_status","employment_sector","sic_industry_division","aa_category","dla_sc_category","dla_m_category","pip_m_category","pip_dl_category","is_disabled_for_benefits","is_enhanced_disabled_for_benefits","is_severely_disabled_for_benefits","current_education","highest_education","is_in_non_advanced_education","is_in_approved_training","age_started_or_accepted_current_education_or_training","is_before_universal_credit_qualifying_young_person_terminal_date","adult_ema","child_ema","receives_benefits_in_own_right","reports_outstanding_student_loan","age_left_full_time_education","legacy_jobseeker_proxy","esa_health_condition_proxy","esa_support_group_proxy","disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses","max_free_entitlement_hours_used","would_claim_marriage_allowance","would_claim_scp","attends_private_school_random_draw","tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share","is_apprentice","hmrc_spi_pay","hmrc_spi_unemployment_benefit_income","hmrc_spi_incapacity_benefit_income","ossben_identifiable_subset","srp_regular_code5","employer_pension_contributions","employment_income_annual_share","employment_income_other_spells","self_employment_income_annual_share","self_employment_income_other_spells","private_pension_income_annual_share","contributory_benefits_annual_share","person_source_id","person_support_channel","person_support_clone_index","person_is_spi_income_band_carrier","charitable_investment_gifts","gift_aid","other_investment_income","hmrc_spi_employment_benefits","hmrc_spi_employment_expenses","hmrc_spi_other_social_security_income","hmrc_spi_taxable_termination_pay","hmrc_spi_miscellaneous_employment_income","hmrc_spi_other_income","hmrc_spi_state_pension_income","property_finance_costs","hmrc_spi_employed_income","hmrc_spi_total_earned_income","hmrc_spi_total_investment_income","hmrc_spi_assessable_income","person_is_spi_income_recipient","student_loan_balance","has_lifetime_isa","lifetime_isa_balance","property_rental_income","local_bus_use_band","bus_in_london_trips","other_local_bus_trips","local_bus_trips","bus_pass_eligible","local_bus_single_fare_share","a_and_e_visits","admitted_patient_visits","outpatient_visits","nhs_a_and_e_spending","nhs_admitted_patient_spending","nhs_outpatient_spending","capital_gains","cgt_residential_probability","capital_gains_residential_property","capital_gains_asset_type","capital_gains_badr","pension_contributions_via_bonus_sacrifice","salary_sacrifice_pre_conversion_pay","student_loan_plan"],"entity":"person","rows":"all"}],"kernel":"uk.stage.private_school_attendance@1","mass":"conserve","outputs":[{"column":"attends_private_school","dtype":"bool","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"}],"params":{"numerical_dependencies":[["policyengine-uk","2.162.8"],["policyengine-core","3.33.3"],["numpy","2.4.6"],["pandas","3.0.3"],["scikit-learn","1.8.0"],["quantile-forest","1.4.2"]],"stage":"private_school_attendance","stage_contract_sha256":"7e44379c0331fe4c9de05cd76a075c1a6aa22cf0dec6cd2f91b277e70f14a038","time_period":"2024"},"population":"childcare_copy_take_up.boundary","sources":["frs"],"structural":"none","weights":null}],"sources":[{"codec":"csv-tables","description":"Content-bound UK FRS and donor fixture/source bundle.","name":"frs"}]} diff --git a/test_support/microcosm_build/uk_frs_stochastic.py b/test_support/microcosm_build/uk_frs_stochastic.py index 3e5d5898cf..1dfa51ee07 100644 --- a/test_support/microcosm_build/uk_frs_stochastic.py +++ b/test_support/microcosm_build/uk_frs_stochastic.py @@ -83,6 +83,7 @@ class _Contract: "first_time_buyer_rate": 0.5, "property_purchase_rate": 0.5, "tax_free_childcare_spend_routed_share": 0.593, + "apprentice_stock_19_to_24": 0.06, } def rate(self, key: str, build_year: int | None = None) -> float: @@ -118,6 +119,7 @@ def _frame() -> object: "person_benunit_id": [10, 10, 20, 30], "person_household_id": [1, 1, 1, 2], "age": [5, 6, 40, 70], + "employment_status": ["CHILD", "CHILD", "FT_EMPLOYED", "RETIRED"], "months_since_last_birthday": [0.0] * 4, "is_uc_claimant": [False, False, True, True], "child_benefit_reported": [0, 10, 0, 0], diff --git a/tools/verify_uk_identity_stability.py b/tools/verify_uk_identity_stability.py index ca1a685ce9..e1aaba86dd 100644 --- a/tools/verify_uk_identity_stability.py +++ b/tools/verify_uk_identity_stability.py @@ -120,6 +120,15 @@ def e4_identity_receipt( raise ValueError("LHA_category materialization must align to benunit rows.") benunit["LHA_category"] = [_enum_name(value) for value in lha_category] benunit["region"] = _benunit_regions(person, household, benunit) + # is_apprentice's rate among eligible employees reads the household + # weights, which a row permutation carries with each household id. + weight_by_household = dict( + zip( + household["household_id"].to_numpy(), + np.asarray(frame.weights_for("household").values, dtype=float), + strict=True, + ) + ) def recompute(person_t, benunit_t, household_t) -> dict[str, pd.DataFrame]: anchors = aggregate_person_reported_to_benunit(person_t, benunit_t) @@ -137,7 +146,13 @@ def recompute(person_t, benunit_t, household_t) -> dict[str, pd.DataFrame]: take_up[UK_EXTENDED_CHILDCARE_OUTPUT].to_numpy(), ) take_up.index = benunit_t["benunit_id"].to_numpy() - person_draws = derive_frs_person_draws(person_t, contract=contract) + person_draws = derive_frs_person_draws( + person_t, + contract=contract, + person_weights=person_t["person_household_id"] + .map(weight_by_household) + .to_numpy(dtype=float), + ) person_draws[UK_UNDER_TWO_USAGE_OUTPUT] = derive_under_two_childcare_usage( person_t, claiming=claiming, contract=contract ) diff --git a/uv.lock b/uv.lock index 33ff5a6d40..9a48b9c330 100644 --- a/uv.lock +++ b/uv.lock @@ -857,7 +857,7 @@ requires-dist = [ { name = "openpyxl", marker = "extra == 'uk'", specifier = ">=3.1" }, { name = "pandas", specifier = ">=2" }, { name = "policyengine-core", marker = "extra == 'us'", specifier = "==3.32.5" }, - { name = "policyengine-uk", marker = "extra == 'uk'", specifier = ">=2.162.3" }, + { name = "policyengine-uk", marker = "extra == 'uk'", specifier = ">=2.162.8" }, { name = "policyengine-us", marker = "extra == 'us'", specifier = ">=2.2.1,<3" }, { name = "pyarrow", specifier = ">=15" }, { name = "pyyaml", specifier = ">=6" }, @@ -936,7 +936,7 @@ requires-dist = [ { name = "microcosm-diagnostics", editable = "packages/microcosm-diagnostics" }, { name = "packaging", specifier = ">=24" }, { name = "policyengine-core", marker = "extra == 'us'", specifier = "==3.32.5" }, - { name = "policyengine-uk", marker = "extra == 'uk'", specifier = ">=2.162.3" }, + { name = "policyengine-uk", marker = "extra == 'uk'", specifier = ">=2.162.8" }, { name = "policyengine-us", marker = "extra == 'us'", specifier = ">=2.2.1,<3" }, ] provides-extras = ["us", "uk"] @@ -1055,7 +1055,7 @@ requires-dist = [ { name = "numpy", specifier = ">=2" }, { name = "pandas", specifier = ">=2.3" }, { name = "policyengine-core", marker = "extra == 'policyengine'", specifier = "==3.32.5" }, - { name = "policyengine-uk", marker = "extra == 'uk'", specifier = ">=2.162.3" }, + { name = "policyengine-uk", marker = "extra == 'uk'", specifier = ">=2.162.8" }, { name = 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