diff --git a/packages/raiderio/src/client.test.ts b/packages/raiderio/src/client.test.ts
index 29b96f2..2188e20 100644
--- a/packages/raiderio/src/client.test.ts
+++ b/packages/raiderio/src/client.test.ts
@@ -16,6 +16,7 @@ type FixtureName =
   | "character-renamed-root"
   | "profile-valid"
   | "profile-invalid"
+  | "profile-forbidden"
   | "claimed-characters"
   | "claimed-characters-out-of-scope"
   | "missing-character"
@@ -45,6 +46,7 @@ function fixtureFetch(name: FixtureName): typeof globalThis.fetch {
     const expectsProfile =
       name === "profile-valid" ||
       name === "profile-invalid" ||
+      name === "profile-forbidden" ||
       name === "claimed-characters" ||
       name === "claimed-characters-out-of-scope";
     const expectedPath = expectsProfile
@@ -289,6 +291,15 @@ describe("Raider.IO gateway", () => {
     ).resolves.toBeNull();
   });
 
+  it("treats a private user profile as no profile, not an outage", async () => {
+    // Break caught: Raider.IO answers 403 profile_is_private for a guessed user
+    // name. Classifying that as transient retried a permanent answer and failed
+    // the whole run as upstream_unavailable.
+    await expect(
+      clientFor("profile-forbidden").resolveProfileGuess("private-user")
+    ).resolves.toBeNull();
+  });
+
   it("classifies a missing character", async () => {
     await expect(
       clientFor("missing-character").getCharacter(sentinel)
diff --git a/packages/raiderio/src/client.ts b/packages/raiderio/src/client.ts
index a16628e..fdf08a5 100644
--- a/packages/raiderio/src/client.ts
+++ b/packages/raiderio/src/client.ts
@@ -35,6 +35,10 @@ function retryAfterMs(response: Response): number | undefined {
 
 function responseFailure(response: Response): RaiderIoFailure {
   if (response.status === 404) return { kind: "not_found" };
+  // Raider.IO answers 403 for a user profile its owner has made private. That
+  // is a permanent answer about visibility, not an outage, so it must never be
+  // retried as one.
+  if (response.status === 403) return { kind: "forbidden" };
 
   const retryAfter = retryAfterMs(response);
   return {
@@ -172,7 +176,12 @@ export function createRaiderIoClient(
         ...(profile.omittedMembers ? { omittedMembers: true } : {})
       };
     } catch (error) {
-      if (isRaiderIoFailure(error) && error.kind === "not_found") return null;
+      if (
+        isRaiderIoFailure(error) &&
+        (error.kind === "not_found" || error.kind === "forbidden")
+      ) {
+        return null;
+      }
       throw error;
     }
   }
diff --git a/packages/raiderio/src/errors.ts b/packages/raiderio/src/errors.ts
index c8aea6e..279c7f5 100644
--- a/packages/raiderio/src/errors.ts
+++ b/packages/raiderio/src/errors.ts
@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 export type RaiderIoFailure =
   | { kind: "not_found" }
+  | { kind: "forbidden" }
   | {
       kind: "transient";
       status?: number;
@@ -14,6 +15,7 @@ export function isRaiderIoFailure(value: unknown): value is RaiderIoError {
 
   return (
     value.kind === "not_found" ||
+    value.kind === "forbidden" ||
     value.kind === "transient" ||
     value.kind === "schema_drift"
   );
diff --git a/tests/fixtures/raiderio/profile-forbidden.json b/tests/fixtures/raiderio/profile-forbidden.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..f98b944
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/fixtures/raiderio/profile-forbidden.json
@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+{
+  "status": 403,
+  "body": {
+    "statusCode": 403,
+    "error": "Forbidden",
+    "message": "The requested user's profile is private and cannot be viewed.",
+    "errorCode": "profile_is_private"
+  }
+}