diff --git a/src/main/java/com/financebot/alert/domain/ExcessiveInstallmentAlert.java b/src/main/java/com/financebot/alert/domain/ExcessiveInstallmentAlert.java
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..abe48dc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/main/java/com/financebot/alert/domain/ExcessiveInstallmentAlert.java
@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+package com.financebot.alert.domain;
+
+public record ExcessiveInstallmentAlert(
+        long activeInstallmentGroups,
+        int threshold,
+        String explanation
+) {
+}
diff --git a/src/main/java/com/financebot/alert/port/InstallmentRiskPort.java b/src/main/java/com/financebot/alert/port/InstallmentRiskPort.java
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..253a065
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/main/java/com/financebot/alert/port/InstallmentRiskPort.java
@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+package com.financebot.alert.port;
+
+import java.time.LocalDate;
+
+public interface InstallmentRiskPort {
+
+    Long countDistinctActiveInstallmentGroupsByUser(Long userId, LocalDate today);
+}
diff --git a/src/main/java/com/financebot/alert/service/ExcessiveInstallmentDetector.java b/src/main/java/com/financebot/alert/service/ExcessiveInstallmentDetector.java
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c48c490
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/main/java/com/financebot/alert/service/ExcessiveInstallmentDetector.java
@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+package com.financebot.alert.service;
+
+import com.financebot.alert.domain.ExcessiveInstallmentAlert;
+import com.financebot.alert.port.InstallmentRiskPort;
+import com.financebot.user.domain.User;
+import org.springframework.stereotype.Service;
+
+import java.time.Clock;
+import java.time.LocalDate;
+
+@Service
+public class ExcessiveInstallmentDetector {
+
+    public static final int DEFAULT_THRESHOLD = 5;
+
+    private final InstallmentRiskPort installmentRiskPort;
+    private final Clock clock;
+
+    public ExcessiveInstallmentDetector(InstallmentRiskPort installmentRiskPort, Clock clock) {
+        this.installmentRiskPort = installmentRiskPort;
+        this.clock = clock;
+    }
+
+    public ExcessiveInstallmentAlert detect(User user) {
+        if (user == null || user.getId() == null) {
+            throw new IllegalArgumentException("User with id is required");
+        }
+        long activeGroups = valueOrZero(installmentRiskPort
+                .countDistinctActiveInstallmentGroupsByUser(user.getId(), LocalDate.now(clock)));
+        if (activeGroups < DEFAULT_THRESHOLD) {
+            return null;
+        }
+        return new ExcessiveInstallmentAlert(
+                activeGroups,
+                DEFAULT_THRESHOLD,
+                "Você tem " + activeGroups + " grupos de parcelas ativos; a partir de "
+                        + DEFAULT_THRESHOLD + " o comprometimento merece revisão."
+        );
+    }
+
+    private long valueOrZero(Long value) {
+        return value == null ? 0 : value;
+    }
+}
diff --git a/src/main/java/com/financebot/transaction/repository/TransactionRepository.java b/src/main/java/com/financebot/transaction/repository/TransactionRepository.java
index 8e0989f..0b2fd6c 100644
--- a/src/main/java/com/financebot/transaction/repository/TransactionRepository.java
+++ b/src/main/java/com/financebot/transaction/repository/TransactionRepository.java
@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
 package com.financebot.transaction.repository;
 
 import com.financebot.alert.port.ExpenseHistoryPort;
+import com.financebot.alert.port.InstallmentRiskPort;
 import com.financebot.transaction.domain.Transaction;
 import com.financebot.transaction.domain.TransactionType;
 import org.springframework.data.jpa.repository.JpaRepository;
@@ -13,7 +14,8 @@
 import java.util.List;
 import java.util.Optional;
 
-public interface TransactionRepository extends JpaRepository<Transaction, Long>, JpaSpecificationExecutor<Transaction>, ExpenseHistoryPort {
+public interface TransactionRepository extends JpaRepository<Transaction, Long>, JpaSpecificationExecutor<Transaction>,
+        ExpenseHistoryPort, InstallmentRiskPort {
 
     Optional<Transaction> findByIdAndUserId(Long id, Long userId);
 
diff --git a/src/test/java/com/financebot/alert/service/ExcessiveInstallmentDetectorTest.java b/src/test/java/com/financebot/alert/service/ExcessiveInstallmentDetectorTest.java
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..030ef0c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/test/java/com/financebot/alert/service/ExcessiveInstallmentDetectorTest.java
@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+package com.financebot.alert.service;
+
+import com.financebot.alert.port.InstallmentRiskPort;
+import com.financebot.user.domain.User;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.BeforeEach;
+import org.junit.jupiter.api.Test;
+
+import java.time.Clock;
+import java.time.Instant;
+import java.time.LocalDate;
+import java.time.ZoneOffset;
+
+import static org.assertj.core.api.Assertions.assertThat;
+import static org.assertj.core.api.Assertions.assertThatThrownBy;
+
+class ExcessiveInstallmentDetectorTest {
+
+    private final FakeInstallmentRiskPort port = new FakeInstallmentRiskPort();
+    private ExcessiveInstallmentDetector detector;
+    private User user;
+
+    @BeforeEach
+    void setUp() {
+        detector = new ExcessiveInstallmentDetector(
+                port,
+                Clock.fixed(Instant.parse("2026-09-15T12:00:00Z"), ZoneOffset.UTC)
+        );
+        user = new User();
+        user.setId(1L);
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void shouldDetectFiveOrMoreActiveInstallmentGroups() {
+        port.count = 5L;
+
+        var alert = detector.detect(user);
+
+        assertThat(alert).isNotNull();
+        assertThat(alert.activeInstallmentGroups()).isEqualTo(5);
+        assertThat(alert.explanation()).contains("5 grupos");
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void shouldIgnoreCountBelowThreshold() {
+        port.count = 4L;
+
+        assertThat(detector.detect(user)).isNull();
+    }
+
+    @Test
+    void shouldRejectUserWithoutId() {
+        assertThatThrownBy(() -> detector.detect(new User()))
+                .isInstanceOf(IllegalArgumentException.class)
+                .hasMessage("User with id is required");
+    }
+
+    private static final class FakeInstallmentRiskPort implements InstallmentRiskPort {
+        private Long count;
+
+        @Override
+        public Long countDistinctActiveInstallmentGroupsByUser(Long userId, LocalDate today) {
+            return count;
+        }
+    }
+}